[News] CXMT, YMTC Ramp Memory Capacity, but China’s AI, Cloud Boom Could Soak Up New Supply Through 2027

China’s two major memory chipmakers are accelerating capacity expansion. According to Commercial Times, CXMT’s monthly DRAM capacity is expected to rise from around 320,000 wafers currently to 420,000 wafers by 2027, while YMTC’s third Wuhan fab is set to begin operations by the end of 2026 and gradually ramp production in 2027. However, institutional investors believe the new capacity will remain insufficient to reverse the global supply-demand imbalance given the scale of AI-driven memory demand. As the report indicates, China’s expansion may not have a meaningful impact on global supply and demand until 2027 or later.

For DRAM, Commercial Times notes that CXMT is expanding capacity while steadily increasing the share of LPDDR5 and DDR5 in its product mix, with additional output expected to primarily serve China’s domestic markets. In the near term, the expansion is expected to reduce China’s reliance on standard DRAM imports, but is unlikely to significantly increase the global supply of high-end DRAM.

CXMT is gaining ground in conventional DRAM. Chosun Biz notes that as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix devote more production capacity to HBM to meet AI demand, supply of DRAM used in smartphones and PCs has tightened, creating more room for CXMT to expand its presence. According to TrendForce, CXMT’s global DRAM revenue share rose to 9.5% in 2Q26 from 7.6% in 1Q26, placing it fourth behind Samsung at 39.4%, SK hynix at 24.9%, and Micron at 23.3%.

A similar dynamic is expected in NAND. YMTC’s third Wuhan fab is set to enter the ramp-up stage in 2027, with additional fabs also planned, but bringing new capacity online will take time, as noted by Commercial Times. The report also notes that rapidly growing AI and cloud data center demand in China is driving higher consumption of enterprise SSDs and high-capacity NAND. Institutional investors therefore expect that much of the additional output could be absorbed domestically rather than immediately flowing into overseas markets.

CXMT and YMTC Move Into Each Other’s Markets

Beyond capacity expansion, the two companies are also beginning to move into each other’s core markets. According to Reuters, sources say CXMT is preparing to enter the fast-growing NAND flash market, with the company reportedly planning an NAND flash R&D and production line at its new Beijing plant. Reuters also reported in April that YMTC had sent low-power DRAM (LPDDR) samples to customers as it considered entering CXMT’s core market. Commercial Times provides a more specific timeline, noting that YMTC could begin trial production of LPDDR5 DRAM as early as the end of 2026.

As their product portfolios increasingly overlap, Commercial Times points out that industry observers expect CXMT and YMTC could enter direct competition as early as 2028. Beyond capacity, their competition could eventually extend to advanced manufacturing, hybrid bonding, and patent portfolios.

Read more

• [News] CXMT G5 DRAM Enters Mass Production with 50%+ Higher Dies Per Wafer; SAQP Enables 11.95nm Half-Pitch
• DRAM Industry Revenue Rises 59.5% QoQ in 2Q26 as Supply Expansion Continues to Lag Demand Growth, Says TrendForce
• [News] China’s DRAM Leader CXMT Reportedly Plans NAND R&D Line, Could Challenge Samsung, SK hynix and YMTC

(Photo credit: CXMT)