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AMOLED Technology and Market Status—points out that the display panel industry has initiated plans for large-generation fabs that manufacture OLED panels. The migration of the OLED display technology to larger generations is driven by the recent improvements in related process technologies and materials. Also, brands have also been pushing for the adoption of OLED for larger display products. TrendForce forecasts that by 2025, the penetration rate of OLED panels among IT products will reach 2.8% on account of the gradual deployment of the supporting panel production capacity. Then, the OLED penetration rate in the IT segment is expected to take off noticeably in 2026, coming to 5.2%.
The adoption of the OLED display technology among smartphones is on a gradual rise. According to TrendForce’s latest research, the penetration rate of smartphones that feature an OLED panel (regardless of whether the OLED panel is the rigid, flexible, or foldable type) is projected to climb from around 47.7% in 2022 to 50.8% in 2023. Then, by 2026, the penetration will climb above 60%.
TrendForce’s latest research finds that shipments of display panels used in notebook computers (NB panels) came to 13.5 million pieces (pcs) in this October, showing a MoM drop of 16.1% and a YoY drop of 45.0%. Based on TrendForce’s tracking of NB panel shipments, this figure is a 10-year low for the month of October. Moving into 4Q22, TrendForce expects NB panel shipments to remain in a slump because of uncertainties in the global economy and inventory adjustments that are taking place across the entire supply chain. Fourth-quarter shipment figure is now estimated around 41.7 million pcs, reflecting a QoQ drop of 10.8% and a YoY drop of 45.9%.
Recent observations by market intelligence firm TrendForce suggests that the ongoing expansion of the US semiconductor trade restrictions against China could eventually spread to the display panel industry. Agencies within the US government are taking notice of China’s certain advantages in the development of display technologies and build-up of panel production capacity. However, the US will unlikely attempt to directly impose control over panel supply with new trade restrictions in the short term. On the other hand, the upstream portion of the supply chain, especially the sections concerning driver ICs and other related semiconductor chips, are starting to react to the tightening of the US sanctions against Chinese semiconductor companies. Furthermore, some electronics OEMs have recently been re-examining their panel supply chains to evaluate the sourcing of semiconductor components. While OEMs have yet to explicitly ban the use of panel-related chips from Chinese suppliers, they are actively developing backup plans that would seek alternative supply sources in case the US further broadens the scope its technology export rules on Chinese companies.
In this press release, TrendForce details 10 major trends that are expected to take place across various segments in the tech industry, as follows: