The bottleneck for North American data centers is shifting from rack capacity to power delivery. Going forward, industry growth will increasingly be constrained not by the pace of data center construction, but by how quickly the grid can deliver electricity to new facilities. By 2030, an estimated 48.6 GW of committed U.S. data center demand could face delays in grid connection, with PJM, ERCOT, and MISO together accounting for roughly 80% of the total.

Although individual states and grid operators currently appear to be pursuing different approaches, their policies are converging around a common principle: large-load customers that commit to reducing consumption during periods of tight supply can gain earlier access to the grid. In other words, the order of energization is gradually shifting from first-come, first-served toward prioritizing customers willing to provide greater load flexibility.

For the data center industry, this shift means that firm power is increasingly becoming a resource that must be secured through long-term commitments and guaranteed consumption. At the federal level, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) moved in June 2026 to require six regional grid operators to adopt a single national framework for defining large loads and determining the conditions under which they enter interconnection queues. The process was subsequently paused at the request of six regional grid operators, with formal proposals deferred until November 16–20, 2026.

Overall, the U.S. grid is entering a period of significant regulatory reform. While the direction of change is becoming increasingly clear, a unified national framework has yet to emerge, and whether stakeholders can ultimately reach consensus will require continued monitoring.

Key Highlights

• Bottleneck shift: The constraint on North American data centers has moved from rack capacity to grid power delivery, with PJM, ERCOT, and MISO the most affected.
• Policy convergence: Large-load customers willing to curtail consumption during tight supply can get priority grid access, gradually replacing the first-come, first-served approach.
• Scarcity of firm power: Securing firm power increasingly requires long-term commitments and guaranteed consumption.
• Federal regulation: FERC is pushing for a unified national framework for large-load interconnection, but the process was paused at the request of regional grid operators and proposals have been deferred. 
• Outlook: The direction of reform is clear, but whether stakeholders can reach consensus remains to be seen.

Table of Contents

1. Causes of North America’s Data Center Power Supply Shortfall and the Regulatory Framework
   • Figure 1: 2030 Forecast of Data Center Power Supply Delays Across Major North American Grid Regions
2. Review of Large-Load Interconnection and Rate Structures Across Grid Regions: Nine Approaches to the Same Shortfall
   • Table 1: Comparison of Large-Load Interconnection Frameworks Across Four Major Grid Regions
3. Convergence of Power Supply Regulations and Federal Standardization: From Load Curtailment Incentives to Common Standards
   • Table 2: Curtailment Trade-Offs Across Four Major Grid Operators: Benefits and Obligations
   • Table 3: Key Milestones in Large-Load Regulatory Developments in 2026
4. TRI’s View

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