Surging memory prices have triggered early purchasing, driving a short-term recovery in smartphone production this year; however, this pull-in effect will exacerbate market deterioration next year. Constrained by a high base and rising buyer inventory levels, the growth rate of Mobile DRAM contract prices is narrowing in the third quarter. As original manufacturers shift production capacity toward server DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), prices are projected to enter a period of high-level consolidation by year-end, with supply remaining tight into next year.

Key Highlights

• Demand Expectations & Market Shifts: Rising prices have triggered early phone replacements by consumers, leading to an upward revision of the annual production forecast. However, this demand pre-buying effect will lengthen the replacement cycle and exacerbate market deterioration next year.
• Price Trends & Bargaining Tug-of-War: Third-quarter contract price hikes are narrowing due to rising inventory levels and a high base; prices are expected to enter a period of high-level consolidation in the fourth quarter.
• Maker Strategies & Capacity Allocation: Original manufacturers are accelerating their exit from legacy model supply, continuously shifting capacity toward server DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), with specific suppliers stepping in to fill the market gap.
• Brand Performance Divergence: The top brand is increasing its outsourcing ratio to cut costs, while the second-largest brand benefits from its pricing strategy; major Chinese brands mostly maintain a cautious stance, with only select brands continuing to expand market share.
• Long-Term Industry Outlook: Upward shifts in price bands will squeeze the market space for entry-level models. Even if short-term pull-in momentum slows down, constrained by structural capacity reallocation, supply will remain tight into next year.

Table of Contents

1. 2Q26 Mobile DRAM Manufacturer Revenue Ranking
   • 2Q26 Revenue Ranking among Mobile DRAM Suppliers
2. 3Q26 Mobile DRAM Manufacturer Analysis and Outlook
3. Market Supply Analysis
   • Global Top Eight Smartphone Brands’ Respective Device Production Volumes for 2Q26
   • Apple’s iPhone Production in Recent Three Years
   • Global Smartphone Production Volume
   • 3Q26 Mobile DRAM Contract Price

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