Rising memory costs triggered premature purchases as consumers sought to beat price hikes, driving a short-term rebound in smartphone production and prompting TrendForce to revise its full-year output forecast upward. However, this momentum reflects front-loaded demand rather than a genuine market recovery. As persistent cost pressures trickle down to end-user pricing, entry-level models are set to disappear, leaving the market vulnerable to structural contraction risks ahead.

Key Highlights

• Front-Loaded Demand: Memory price hikes sparked anticipatory buying, driving short-term production beat and forecast upgrades, though the overall quarterly weakening trend remains intact.
• Divergent Giant Strategies: The Korean leader expands ODM reliance to offset mid-to-low tier costs, while the American tech giant maintains prices to boost early sales, though future advanced chips and high memory costs will force price hikes.
• Chinese Brand Dynamics: Most Chinese vendors adopt conservative, margin-first strategies; entry-level brands suffer heavy inventory pressure from soaring memory costs, whereas one key player gains market share despite chip generation gaps and OS friction.
• Long-Term Downside Risks: Structural price increases will push budget users toward used devices or longer replacement cycles, heightening production risks and structural decline ahead.

Table of Contents

1. 2Q26 Smartphone Production Outperformed Expectations; Full-Year Projection Revised Upward to -14.5% YoY
   • Global Top Eight Smartphone Brands’ Respective Device Production Volumes for 2Q26
2. Samsung and Apple Pursue Divergent Strategies to Retain and Expand Market Share
   • Apple’s iPhone Production in Recent Three Years
3. Huawei Continues to Expand in Market Share, Whereas Most Chinese Brands Focus on Defending Their Existing Market Shares
4. Latest Upward Revision Resulted from Early Demand; Fundamental Pressure May be Worse than Expected in 2027
   • Global Smartphone Production Volume

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