The era of high-cost memory is unlikely to end anytime soon, and the global smartphone market is projected to enter an output adjustment period starting in 2Q26. Brands equipped with economies of scale, conglomerate resources, and premium product pricing power are well-positioned to stand out in this elimination race. Conversely, brands predominantly selling low-to-mid-range products must brace themselves for a battle for survival.

Key Highlights

• Global smartphone production in 1Q26 edged down 1.7% YoY, as the impact of high-cost memory remained muted.
• With low-priced memory inventories running dry and profit structures damaged, a sharper decline in output is expected starting in 2Q26.
• Brands backed by conglomerate resources or premium pricing power will display stronger resilience, poised to expand their market share against the headwinds.
• Brands relying heavily on low-to-mid-range smartphones face severe cost pressures; their production performance will hinge on the trade-off between market share and profitability.
• As memory prices remain elevated, the smartphone market share landscape is set for a major reshuffle.

Table of Contents

1. Global Smartphone Production Fell by 1.7% YoY for 1Q26; Rising Memory Costs Will Lead to Sharper Production Decline for 2Q26
2. Brands’ Diverging Strategies: Samsung, Apple and Huawei Are Expected to Grow Against Headwinds
3. Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo to Safeguard Bottom Line of Profitability by Potential Scaling Back of Production Scale
4. Lenovo and Google Relatively Subsided in Reduction as Smartphones are Not Core Drivers of Revenue for the Two
   • Combined Market Share of Top 6 vs. That of Top 9 in 1Q26
5. Smartphone Brands’ Survival to be Determined by Corresponding Strategies as Era of High-Priced Memory Fully Reshuffles Respective Market Shares
   • Rankings of Top 10 Smartphone Brands by Production Volume for 1Q26

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