NAND Flash capital expenditure is accelerating, yet manufacturers remain disciplined regarding capacity expansion. Supply growth is primarily driven by cleanroom filling at existing facilities and process technology transitions, yielding limited greenfield capacity. Overall facility expansion remains significantly smaller than that of DRAM, with substantial capacity additions deferred to later stages. Consequently, industry supply elasticity hinges heavily on technological upgrades rather than physical site expansions.

Key Highlights

• Conservative Expansion Strategy: Although capital expenditure is increasing, greenfield expansion remains far smaller than that of DRAM. Original manufacturers primarily maintain growth through cleanroom filling at existing facilities and process technology transitions.
• Near-Term Supply Sources: New wafer starts are mainly concentrated in facility expansions by specific vendors in Japan and Mainland China, alongside US-based manufacturers filling space to address high-capacity storage demand driven by AI servers.
• Late-Stage Capacity Release: Meaningful output from new facilities in Singapore and large Korean campuses will only materialize in later phases, pushing mid- to long-term supply ramp-ups further out.
• Key Market Variables: The efficiency of layer stacking, capacity allocation shifts in shared DRAM/NAND facilities, and lead times between tool installation and product qualification will profoundly impact actual bit output.

Table of Contents

1. NAND Flash Greenfield Capacity Expansion Remains Restrained; 2027 Supply Growth Will Be Driven Primarily by Process Migrations and the Filling of Existing Fab Space
   • Distribution of NAND Flash Wafer Starts by Supplier

<Total Pages: 5>