Rising Costs and Weakening Demand Push Large-Generation Panel Fab Utilization Down to 79.6% in October, Says TrendForce
TrendForce’s latest display panel industry research reveals that surging AI demand is crowding out upstream material capacity for the panel industry, which is expected to drive total TV panel costs up 4–7% QoQ in 4Q26. Additionally, downstream customers are facing mounting cost pressure, while peak-season inventory build-up largely concluded in the third quarter. As a result, TV panel demand by unit is projected to decline 4% QoQ in 4Q26.
Against this backdrop of rising costs and weakening demand, BOE, TCL CSOT, and HKC have each decided to reduce production during China’s Golden Week in response to lower customer demand. TrendForce expects the utilization rate of Gen 5 and above large-generation fabs to fall 4.2 percentage points MoM to 79.6% in October.
On the supply side, several panel makers have gradually withdrawn from the TV market, leading to more concentrated production among a smaller number of major suppliers. The three leading panel makers in mainland China now account for a combined 70% of supply.
Meanwhile, broader economic conditions have weighed on demand for IT panels used in notebooks and monitors. With customers having pulled forward much of their procurement into 1H26, order momentum has weakened significantly in the second half of the year. This has left most panel makers under mounting profitability pressure in their IT businesses. As a result, suppliers that also participate in the TV panel market are taking a more cautious approach, prioritizing profitability over market share gains.
Three major panel makers to schedule October shutdowns and production cuts at TV panel fabs
TrendForce notes that BOE, TCL CSOT, and HKC are planning temporary shutdowns and production cuts primarily at their TV panel fabs during Golden Week. The measures align with each company’s operating strategy while helping reduce inventory buildup and maintain stable TV panel pricing.
Current plans for back-end assembly line shutdowns call for HKC’s H1 fab to suspend operations for seven days, its H2 and H4 fabs for five days, and its H5 fab for three days. TCL CSOT’s T1, T6, and T10 fabs are each expected to shut down for seven days, while BOE’s Gen 10.5 fab is planning a four- to five-day shutdown. Front-end production will be reduced accordingly to align with back-end assembly schedules. This will help balance production with demand while creating more favorable conditions for stabilizing panel prices in the fourth quarter.
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