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Market Value of Consumer Electronics 3D Sensing VCSEL Forecast to Soar to US$1.404 Billion by 2028, Says TrendForce

10 January 2024 LED Joanne Wu

TrendForce’s latest report, “TrendForce 2024 Infrared Sensing Application Market and Branding Strategies” reveals a market decline for consumer electronics 3D sensing VCSEL in 2023 to US$847 million. This downturn has been attributed to a weak consumer market and pricing pressure.

Major brands incorporating 3D sensing in their 2023 consumer electronics include Apple (smartphones and tablets), Honor (smartphones), Meta Quest 3, and Magic Leap 2. The iPhone 15 Pro, featuring Sony’s stacked technology, integrates VCSEL/drive IC and SPAD/ISP (ASIC chips) in a compact stack. This not only reduces system size but also enhances the performance of LiDAR scanners at the same power level—extending battery life and improving camera and AR functionalities.

Major Apple developments include the adoption of MetaLenses in 2024 to minimize the size of transmitters. Furthermore, the company intends to implement under-display 3D sensing by 2027 to increase display-screen ratios. This technology, using short-wave infrared (SWIR) VCSEL, reduces interference from sunlight and ambient light while mitigating white spot phenomena. The adoption of SWIR VCSEL is expected to drive VCSEL prices up. TrendForce research indicates that ams OSRAM’s 1,130nm VCSEL demonstrates superior performance by achieving PCE>30% in 2H23.

The upcoming 2024 launch of the Apple Vision Pro, equipped with a trio of cutting-edge 3D sensing technologies—Structured Light, Direct Time of Flight (dToF), and Active Stereo Vision—is poised to significantly propel the 3D sensing market. This growth trajectory is further bolstered by the sustained introduction of AR and VR products from tech giants like Sony, Meta, Microsoft, and Google. As a result, the market value of consumer electronics 3D sensing VCSEL is forecast to reach US$1.404 billion by 2028, with an estimated CAGR of approximately 11% from 2023 to 2028.

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