[News] ASML Warns of 2027–28 Supply Shortfall Despite 30% Annual Capacity Hikes; Pricing Impact Starts in 2027
As the AI chip boom fuels aggressive capacity expansion across the semiconductor industry, ASML raised the lower end of its 2026 revenue guidance to €44 billion–€45 billion after posting record third-quarter sales, according to Investing.com. Yet the bigger takeaway from its latest earnings call was a warning that its planned capacity would fall short of customer demand in both 2027 and 2028, Reuters reports.
According to ASML, CEO Christophe Fouquet acknowledged that even ASML’s planned 30% capacity increase in 2027, followed by another targeted 30% expansion in 2028, would not be enough to keep pace with orders.
Reuters, citing Fouquet, notes that orders for 2028 are already pouring in, with some customers looking to secure equipment as far ahead as 2029 or even 2030.
Notably, ASML expects to ship around 65 systems, up more than 50% from last year, marking a sharp acceleration in deliveries. The outlook for DUV immersion tools has also improved significantly: after initially anticipating a decline in shipments, the company now expects volumes to remain roughly flat year over year.
In a bid to help semiconductor manufacturers ease capacity constraints, ASML confirmed it will introduce the NXE:3800F EUV scanner in 2027, boosting wafer throughput from today’s 230 wafers per hour (wph) to 260 wph. The breakthrough is expected to meaningfully scale customer production capacities starting in 2028 and beyond, ASML said.
Simultaneously, ASML is advancing its DUV portfolio by upgrading key immersion tools scheduled for delivery in 2027 to reach a record 330 wph, according to the company.
Record 3Q Sales, Stronger 4Q Outlook
ASML’s capacity warning comes alongside a strong earnings performance. According to Investing.com, the Dutch lithography giant posted record third-quarter net sales of €11.66 billion, up from €9.33 billion in the previous quarter. Net profit surged to €4.96 billion from €2.92 billion, while gross margin expanded to 57.5% from 54%.
The momentum is expected to carry into the fourth quarter. ASML forecasts revenue of €14.2 billion–€15.2 billion ($15.9 billion–$17.0 billion), topping analysts’ expectations, with gross margin projected at around 57%, according to Reuters.
For the full year, ASML raised the lower end of its revenue guidance by €1 billion to €44 billion–€45 billion, while maintaining its upper-end target. The company expects a gross margin of approximately 56%.
Price Hikes to Begin Taking Effect in 2027, Full Impact Seen in 2028
ASML also addressed pricing during its earnings call, amid reports of planned increases for South Korean customers. According to The Elec, the Dutch lithography giant is reportedly seeking a 10% price hike on replacement parts supplied to South Korea, with Samsung Electronics and SK hynix already notified.
According to ASML’s earnings call transcript, pricing discussions with major customers have concluded, though the impact is expected to be minimal in 2026. The effects should begin emerging in 2027, with the full impact becoming visible from 2028 onward.
Read more
- [News] ASML Reportedly Plans 10% Parts Price Hike in South Korea Starting Jan. 2027; Equipment Prices May Also Rise
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(Photo credit: ASML)
