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Press Releases
As Shipment Skyrockets in 2Q20, Chromebooks to Set Record by Occupying 25% of Notebook Computer Shipment for First Time Ever, Says TrendForce


Consumer Electronics

The transformation of both work and education by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has brought about exceptional shipment numbers for the notebook computer industry in 2Q20, with Chromebooks showing the most remarkable growth TrendForce forecasts global Chromebook shipment in 2Q20 to reach up to 116 million units, a historical high in single-quarter shipment Furthermore, 2Q20 marks the first time ever for Chromebooks to occupy 25% of total quarterly notebook shipment TrendForce considers the explosive growth of Chromebooks to be caused by the following factors: First, many countries have turned to distance learning at all levels of the education system due to the pandemic As the education market has always been the primary market for Chromebooks, Chromebooks have now become the hardware purchase of choice for the student population in North America and Europe, since many families are taking extra care when budgeting during the pandemic In sum, the transformation of the education system under the pandemic’s influence is the primary factor responsible for the surge of Chromebook shipment Secondly, in early 2020, most notebook brands did not view Chromebooks as an important product in their yearly strategy But the subsequent onset of the pandemic introduced a breakage in the Chinese supply chain, while at the same time market demand for Chromebooks began rising These events led to a large number of urgent Chromebook orders being placed in 2Q20; the traditional seasonal peak demand for Chromebooks due to the start of the school year in third quarters is thus emerging ahead of time this year in 2Q20 instead, in turn becoming another key factor facilitating the surge of Chromebook shipment Also, the retail prices of Chromebooks are considerably more consumer-friendly relative to those of Windows notebooks This has given Chromebooks an edge in securing public educational project bids A notable example of this is the recent adoption of Chromebooks in the Japanese education market for the first time On the other hand, the massive QoQ growth of Chromebook shipment in 2Q20 led the market to suspect that the strong seasonality typically seen in third quarters may not repeat itself this year TrendForce believes that although the market may be impacted in 3Q20, the total yearly shipment of Chromebooks in 2020 is still projected to reach the 20-million-unit milestone, thanks to the strong shipment numbers in 2Q20 In 2020, the Chromebook market is projected to not only see YoY shipment growth of 17% compared to last year’s shipment of 17 million units, but also possess increased market share of 128%, compared to 105% in 2019, setting record highs in both shipment and market shares

Press Releases
Smartphone Production to Drop by 16.5% YoY in 2Q20, Setting Historical Record in YoY Decline, Says TrendForce


Consumer Electronics

TrendForce has revised down its forecast of yearly smartphone production volume to 124 billion units, an 113% decrease YoY, given weakening end-product demand According to the latest investigations by TrendForce, the global spread of COVID-19 in 2020 has brought about the greatest magnitude of declines in the smartphone market in recent years Global smartphone production for 1Q20 fell by 10% YoY to around 280 million units, the lowest in five years, due to pandemic-induced disruptions across the supply chain, such as delayed work resumption and labor/material shortages, which caused low factory capacity utilization rates Turning to 2Q20, there are now improvements to both the supply chain and the work resumption statuses of manufacturing and assembly lines, but the pandemic is now making its effects felt on the demand side of the smartphone market by tanking major economies worldwide Global production for 2Q20 is now estimated to register another YoY drop of 165% to 287 million units, the largest decline on record for a given quarter TrendForce forecasts total yearly production volume of 124 billion units, an 113% decrease YoY Vivo was the only brand among the top six showing growth in 1Q20 1Q20 leader Samsung will be experiencing constrained growth this year even without the emergence of COVID-19 In addition to the saturation of the market, Chinese brands are exerting continuous pressure on Samsung’s presence in the Southeast Asian and Indian markets by the day Most of Samsung’s smartphone assembly lines are located in Vietnam and India, and the company possesses about only 2% of the market share for smartphones in China Its production was thus not significantly affected by issues related to the disease during the initial phase of the outbreak in China Nevertheless, the rapid spread of the disease across North America and Europe in the later part of 1Q20 compelled Samsung to lower its device output even as its factories were running as usual The brand’s production volume for 1Q20 came to 653 million units, showing a YoY drop of 99% Moving into 2Q20, India’s smartphone assembly lines have been suspended since late March due to the imposition of a national lockdown Furthermore, the global economy has gone into a recession TrendForce thus estimates that Samsung’s smartphone production for 2Q20 will fall by 107% QoQ to 583 million units Huawei, which took second place in the production ranking for 1Q20, was able to have its device assembly lines resume work soon after the Lunar New Year holiday This brand has seen a steep decline in overseas sales due to its new devices being excluded from Google Mobile Services Nevertheless, demand from China, which is its primary market, has started to recover With the support of domestic demand, Huawei’s smartphone production for 1Q20 came to 46 million units, in line with TrendForce’s earlier projection If China’s economy continues to improve, Huawei’s production for 2Q20 may register a QoQ growth and reach approximately 48 million units Huawei is sticking with its plan of making a push for its 5G smartphones this year, but 4G models will still account for most of its 1H20 smartphone output, and Huawei is also holding a significant inventory of 4G models Therefore, Huawei’s greatest challenge at the present is to simultaneously develop an effective campaign to promote the latest 5G smartphones and sell off the existing stock of 4G smartphones Prior to the onset of COVID-19, TrendForce had originally expected Apple to once again reach yearly production of 200 million units, owing to the release of five new models this year and the phasing out of the popular iPhone 6s series by the seasonal smartphone replacement cycle However, Apple fell victim to the influence of the coronavirus pandemic, resulting in the reduced production of its iPhone lineups this year In terms of 1Q20 performance, iPhone production fell by 87% YoY, reaching 379 million units, due to labor and material shortages following the post-Lunar New Year work resumption, in turn ranking Apple in the third place As the company releases the new iPhone SE with a consumer-friendly price tag in 2Q20, quarterly iPhone production is expected to stay relatively close to 1Q20 figures, reaching 36 million units Apple is still planning to release four new 5G handsets in 2H20, but whether the pandemic’s influence will weaken the demand for iPhones going forward remains a noteworthy concern, since iPhones sell at a relatively high retail price, and the iPhone’s primary sales regions are the European and US markets, which are in the midst of dealing with COVID-19 Overseas markets account for over 70% of fourth-ranked Xiaomi’s sales As these markets were unaffected by the Lunar New Year, Xiaomi rapidly expanded its production capacity, following its domestic work resumption, to meet the demand from overseas channels But Xiaomi also had to contend with industry-wide issues of labor and material shortages, resulting in lower than expected capacity utilization of its production lines The company registered 1Q20 production of 245 million units, which kept flat with 1Q19 figures TrendForce expects the 2Q20 acceleration of COVID-19 in India and Indonesia, both of which are major sales regions for Xiaomi, to impact their quarterly smartphone demand and lead to a 107% decrease YoY in Xiaomi’s 2Q20 production, totaling 275 million units; the pandemic is projected to have a greater impact on Xiaomi relative to other Chinese brands that rely primarily on domestic sales In response, Xiaomi will aim to gain a competitive advantage by pricing its 5G handsets for low gross margins, in an effort to capture a greater share of the Chinese market, in turn making up for the shortfall in overseas sales OPPO (including OnePlus, OPPO, and Realme) and Vivo, ranked fifth and sixth respectively, benefitted from increased overseas orders, but their capacity utilization rates have been sluggish following post-Lunar New Year work resumption OPPO posted 1Q20 production volume of 24 million units, a 104% decrease YoY On the other hand, Vivo had traditionally maintained conservative production plans during past first quarters, meaning the base period for YoY comparisons with 1Q20 is relatively low; Vivo’s production volume in 1Q20 grew by 55% YoY, reaching 23 million units, placing it as the only smartphone brand in the top six exhibiting a YoY growth, against the overall trend of declines Looking to 2Q20, TrendForce has lowered its production forecast for the quarter in light of national lockdowns in Southeast Asia and India starting in March: 30 million and 245 million units for OPPO and Vivo, respectively, with each brand undergoing more than 14% decrease YoY Yearly 5G smartphone production is projected to reach 200 million units depending on the performance of the Chinese market The pandemic’s impact prompted governments to prioritize disease prevention and stabilization; furthermore, consumers generally have a speculative attitude towards purchasing 5G handsets These two factors diminished the smartphone market’s momentum of transitioning from 4G into 5G in 1H20 In 2H20, if the Chinese government stays the course in commercializing 5G, and mid-range 5G chips are successfully supplied to the market, the Chinese smartphone market will then see increased incentive to transition into 5G, while also resulting in 5G handsets’ consumer-friendly retail prices At the moment, as brands fight over 5G market shares, the yearly forecast of 5G smartphone production volume remains around the 200 million unit mark, with a 16% penetration rate in the overall smartphone market In particular, Chinese brands occupy over 60% of 5G smartphone market share, with the domestic Chinese market as their primary sales region This means the penetration rate of 5G handsets in the overall smartphone market will depend heavily on feedbacks from the Chinese market However, the penetration rate of 5G smartphones does not absolutely reflect the availability of 5G networks, which will depend on the construction of 5G base stations

Press Releases
Total Foundry Revenue to Undergo Single-Digit Growth in 2020, Owing to Deferred Seasonality from COVID-19, Says TrendForce



Total foundry revenue in 2020 is expected to reach 5%-9% YoY growth, with 68% being the median According to the latest investigations by TrendForce, if the COVID-19 pandemic were to cause a break in the semiconductor supply chain, the industry would then be confronted with operational difficulties; the pandemic-induced decline in commercial and social activities may also potentially push back or even lower the traditional strong seasonality, thus affecting the foundry industry’s magnitude of revenue growth in 2020 Prior to the onset of COVID-19, foundries had originally forecasted a double-digit revenue growth YoY However, given the deferred schedule of disease containment and the uncertain recovery time for market demand, TrendForce is forecasting a 5%-9% single-digit YoY growth in foundry revenue this year, with 68% being the median An analysis of wafer start orders placed at various foundries in 1H20 shows the following situations: Foundry clients refrained from large-scale cutbacks in orders, as these clients took into account the possibility of rebounding demand in the market after the pandemic’s eventual slowdown and aimed to avoid component shortages In addition, foundry clients’ stock-up demand from 4Q19 was able to sustain the industry’s 1Q20 revenue On the other hand, TrendForce expects the pandemic to have a somewhat noticeable effect on foundry orders in 2Q20 compared to 1Q20 For instance, orders for certain consumer electronics may be adjusted, while the demand for chips used in telework and medical applications, which are critical functions amidst the pandemic, is expected to undergo some degree of growth Therefore, despite adjustments to foundry orders in 2Q20, the magnitude of these adjustments will not be significant As well, 2Q19 was a relatively low base period in terms of foundry revenue; even if foundries were to see QoQ decreases in 2Q20 revenue, the low base period in 2Q19 means a YoY increase remains likely Nevertheless, although certain chip orders in 2Q20 may be included in 3Q20 revenue after the chips have been produced, these orders are projected to contribute to 3Q20 revenue shares to a limited extent only Also, given the delays in pandemic containment measures and uncertainty regarding demand ramp-up, foundry clients may begin evaluating the possibility of reducing their orders by a relatively large amount, in an effort to avoid excess inventory This potential reduction may subsequently postpone or lower the industry’s traditional strong seasonality, in turn impacting the foundry industry’s 2H20 revenue In terms of market demand, the current pandemic situation means the public will almost certainly possess reduced purchasing power In response, foundries are turning elsewhere and looking for mid- to long-term demand drivers that can support the industry’s momentum, such as 5G infrastructure construction, servers and data centers for telecommunications, and IoT for industrial automation However, the demand from these mid- to long-term applications still falls short of the demand share from the potentially waning consumer market Therefore, depending on the severity of COVID-19’s impact on the supply chain and on the consumer market, foundries will likely need to remain agile in adjusting their operational strategies and revenue forecasts Taking into account the possibility of deferred or dwindling seasonality and assuming that the pandemic is unlikely to be brought under control in 2H20, TrendForce’s outlook on foundry revenue in 2020 remains conservative, with future developments depending on the progress of pandemic containment and the recovery time of the consumer market

Press Releases
As COVID-19 Pandemic Affects Demand, TV Panel Shipment Projected to Drop 7.1% YoY in 2Q20, while Capacity Allocation Issues Resurface, Says TrendForce


Display / Consumer Electronics

According to the latest report on TV panel shipment by the WitsView research division of TrendForce, the end of the fiscal quarter in March and the near-resolution of TV panel material shortages have induced manufacturers to proactively step up their shipments, in turn raising TV panel shipment in March to 23371 million pieces, a 164% increase MoM compared to February figures TV panel shipment amounted to 64253 million pieces in 1Q20 despite QoQ and YoY decreases of 120% and 82%, respectively 1Q20 shipment exceeded market expectations, as it fell short of the shipment target set by manufacturers at the start of 2020 by only 49%, signaling an end of COVID-19’s impact on panel suppliers In 2Q20, factors influencing the TV panel industry will shift towards the demand side in the TV market Europe, the US, and several emerging Asian markets have announced citywide and nationwide quarantines and lockdowns In addition, TrendForce indicates that a pessimistic outlook on the overall global economy is expected to cause declining sales in the consumer electronics market As such, in spite of the seeming QoQ growth in 2Q20 TV panel shipment compared to a relatively weak 1Q20 base period, the magnitude of this growth is projected to reach a mere 23% due to panel purchasers’ increasingly conservative procurement efforts In total, 2Q20 TV panel shipment is estimated at 6575 million pieces, a 71% decrease YoY, reflecting a shortfall in panel demand As TV demand tumbles, panel suppliers and purchasers alike have begun to generate rumors of lowered panel manufacturer capacity utilization rates TrendForce nonetheless holds the opinion that lowering capacity utilization is not the best course of action at the present, for three reasons: First, quotes for most sizes of TV panels are currently higher than cash costs, following a general uptrend in quotes since the start of the year Lowering capacity utilization at the moment thus goes against the principle of profit maximization Second, the rising demand for telework arrangements has galvanized a corresponding short-term hike in IT panel demand Therefore, some panel manufacturers may still maintain their level of capacity utilization through adjusting their product mix to meet this demand Third, Korean panel manufacturers have announced plans to shut down their LCD production lines in 4Q20 This shutdown is expected to result in a reshuffle in both the supply chain and the market shares of panel manufacturers As major panel suppliers in China are aiming to expand their market shares, they will be unlikely to lower their capacity utilization rates Likewise, Taiwanese panel suppliers will not be undertaking any drastic actions, given their efforts to maintain their existing market shares In general, TrendForce does not foresee a high probability for panel manufacturers to reduce capacity utilization on a large scale Even so, Korean manufacturers have exhibited a shift in business ethos from an aggressive approach to a conservative one, following their announcement to reduce LCD production In the face of falling TV panel prices, Korean suppliers may move forward their plans to lower glass input, originally scheduled for 2H20, to 2Q20 While this move may serve as a measure to lessen the drop in panel prices, it will also position Korean manufacturers as the most significant variable in the 2Q20 supply of TV panels

Press Releases
Pandemic-Induced Decline in Large-Size DDI Demand Temporarily Halts Tight Supply Issues, which May Resurface in 2H20, Says TrendForce


Semiconductors / Display

According to the latest investigations by the WitsView research division of TrendForce, disappointing 1Q20 shipment performances by panel manufacturers, combined with the continued acceleration of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and the US, resulted in a reduction of proposed TV panel purchases in 2Q20 by several major TV brands Despite urgent orders for IT panels due to the increased need for telework, overall IT panel demand following the fulfillment of these urgent orders remains yet unclear As such, the previous projection of tight large-size DDI supply in 2020 has not surfaced at the moment In general, there are two types of interfaces connecting large-size DDI and display panels, according to TrendForce: mini LVDS and high speed P2P TrendForce estimates yearly demand for DDI with mini LVDS interface from three major applications, namely, notebook, monitor, and TV panels, to be about 15 billion units, with monthly wafer demand reaching 50-60 KSH (k sheets) UMC, TSMC, and VIS, foundries which supply DDI, favor orders for DDI with P2P interfaces and intend on fulfilling P2P orders instead of mini LVDS in the future because of higher profit margins These companies have instructed IC design houses to redirect mini LVDS manufacturing orders to other foundries PSMC and Nexchip, foundries that are the most likely to increase wafer inputs for mini LVDS, do not currently have enough production capacity to meet the overall industrial demand for the interface Conversely, demand for PMIC and entry-level and mid-range CMOS sensors has not cooled down Forehead thermometer microcontroller units have also been in short supply since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic As such, major foundries’ 8-inch wafer inputs have been seeing near-maximum utilization rates If the pandemic can be effectively contained, demand for DDI interfaces from major end-device applications is expected to resurface in 2H20, in turn resulting in a tight supply of large-size DDI once again Analysis of total foundry wafer inputs for DDI applications shows an average of 250-270 KSH per month for 8-inch wafer inputs and 120-150 KSH per month for 12-inch wafer inputs in 2019 When converted into equivalent 8-inch wafer inputs by size, total wafer inputs (8-inch and 12-inch combined) for DDI applications reached 550-600 KSH per month Ranked by total production capacity, Taiwan leads other regions by accounting for more than 50% of wafer inputs for DDI applications, with South Korea following behind at 34%, and China, Japan, and other regions trailing at 10%, 3%, and 1%, respectively In terms of DDI wafer input by foundry, UMC is the leading supplier, with Samsung LSI and SK Hynix ranked second and third As leading supplier UMC takes a large number of orders from IC design houses in Greater China, if the foundry were to reallocate its wafer capacity for various applications, there will be a corresponding panic on the market regarding potential issues regarding DDI supply Conversely, as the Korean supply chain is more closed-off in comparison, there are fewer Greater China-based IC design houses placing orders for wafer input at Korean foundries Thus, Samsung LSI and SK Hynix do not influence the DDI market’s overall supply and demand as much as UMC does

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