Search Results
keyword：Stan Shen，
2 result(s)
2022/01/14
Due to the pandemic, laptops shipments reached a record high of 240 million units in 2021, according to TrendForce's investigations However, the market has been abuzz recently and, as the global population of the fully vaccinated has exceeded 50%, relevant demand driven by the pandemic is expected to gradually weaken Shipment volume will decrease by 33% year-on-year, revised down slightly to 238 million units Chromebooks will account for approximately 123% of shipment volume, though it accounted for approximately 152% in 2021 The momentum of shipments has slowed down significantly which indicates that demand derived from the economic effect of remote working and teaching has subsided
TrendForce further states that Chromebook shipments declined sharply by nearly 50% in 2H21 due to the end of the Japanese government’s education tender and an increase in US market share However, thanks to the sequential return to the office of European and American companies driving a wave of commercial equipment replacement, shipments of commercial laptops have grown rapidly to make up for the shortfall In turn, the shipment of laptops in 4Q21 hit the highest levels of the year, reaching 646 million units In addition, due to the severe shortage of IC materials in mature processes, the backlog of orders extends to 1Q22 and the off-season is expected to be short Compared with the average quarterly reduction of 15% in previous years, this year’s pullback is expected to be less than 10%
It is worth noting that due to the shortage of container ships and issues with port congestion, shipping time has been prolonged, increasing by two to three times from manufacturers in mainland China to the United States compared to before the epidemic Notebook brands have all been shipping in advance and the proportion of air freight shipments has increased However, shipping time still exceeds expectations, which may flood the supply chain with duplicate orders from downstream customers, resulting in overstocked inventories and the risk of subsequent orders being canceled In addition, the wave of commercial equipment replacement driven by a return to the office will be a major variable that will affect the demand for notebooks in 2022, resulting in near-term buzz in the market
TrendForce indicated that in the past, due to factors such as fewer working days during the Lunar New Year Holiday and labor shortages in mainland China, brands would often require large OEMs to produce and ship before the Lunar New Year This first quarter end-of-season surge will start from this month Even though changes in end-user demand is unclear, March will see the beginning of a production surge to end the first quarter If there is a major change in demand at that time, it may lead to an accumulation of distribution channel inventory, leading to a downward revision in demand, and a return to the normal equipment replacement cycle
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2021/09/28
As growing vaccination rates worldwide starting in July lead to a gradual easing of lockdowns, the overall demand for notebook computers has also experienced a corresponding slowdown, with Chromebook demand dropping by as much as 50%, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations However, factors such as a wave of replacement demand for commercial notebooks in Europe and North America due to the return to physical workplaces, as well as brands’ aggressive efforts to rush out their 4Q21 shipments ahead of time due to global port congestions, became the primary drivers of notebook demand in 3Q21 Hence, annual notebook shipment for 2021 will likely reach 240 million units, a 164% YoY increase
TrendForce further indicates that 4Q21 will welcome both the gradual release of new models equipped with Intel’s next-gen CPUs and a wave of replacement demand for notebooks featuring Windows 11 Even so, overall notebook shipment in 4Q21 will depend on the status of the COVID-19 pandemic and the demand for commercial notebooks As vaccinations become even more widespread in 2022, pandemic-related spending is expected to decline as a result TrendForce therefore expects global notebook shipment to decline by 7-8% YoY next year and reach approximately 220 million units, although this still represents a growth of 60 million units over the shipment volume for 2019, prior to the emergence of the pandemic
Annual Chromebook shipment for 2021 is expected to reach about 36 million units in light of waning demand, while HP and Samsung suffer the brunt of the decline
Chromebook became the primary driver of overall notebook shipment in 1H21 Nevertheless, increased vaccinations in Europe, North America, and Japan in 2H21 have led to a slowdown of Chromebook demand, which mostly arose in response to the needs of distance education Furthermore, given the relatively high penetration rate of Chromebooks, Chromebook shipment subsequently fell by more than 50% within a single month in 2H21 In particular, as Chromebooks occupy a relatively high share of notebook shipments by HP and Samsung, these companies’ notebook shipment is expected to decline by 10-20% in 2H21 compared to the first half of the year However, the US FCC released the Emergency Connectivity Fund, which totals US$717 billion, in July in order to facilitate the purchase of such equipment as notebooks, tablets, and network connectivity devices by schools and libraries This fund will likely sustain the demand for Chromebooks for the next year For 2021, Chromebook shipment is expected to reach 36 million units
As the workforce in Europe and North America returns to physical workplaces in 2H21, a wave of replacement demand for commercial notebooks is expected to emerge as well, with Dell benefitting the most, since commercial notebooks occupy a higher share of Dell’s notebook portfolio compared to any other brand Dell’s average monthly shipment of commercial notebooks in 2H21 is expected to surpass 1H21 figures by about 20% As previously mentioned, it remains to be seen whether the demand for commercial notebooks will persist in 4Q21 Furthermore, the release of new models featuring Windows 11 support and Intel’s next-gen CPUs will also generate yet another wave of replacement demand Taking these factors into account, TrendForce expects overall notebook shipment for 4Q21 to remain relatively unchanged from 3Q21 figures in the best-case scenario, and momentum driving notebook shipment will likely persist through the end of the year
It should be noted that the availability of semiconductor components throughout the supply chain remains limited For instance, the persistent shortage of Wi-Fi module IC, Type C PD IC, and PMIC has created a bottleneck for notebook manufacturing, while mainstream 14-inch and 156-inch FHD IPS panels are also in tight supply Conversely, demand for entry-level and mid-range 14-inch and 156-inch HD TN panels is gradually being met, and 116-inch notebook panels are starting to experience a price drop due to oversupply As notebook demand plateaus while panel supply increases, the supply and demand of notebook panels is expected to reach an equilibrium in 4Q21
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
