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keyword：Sharon Chen，
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2020/08/13
Polysilicon prices have seen continuous hikes in the past two weeks due to the explosion at Jiangsu Zhongneng’s chemical plant in Xinjiang and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations In particular, mono polysilicon closing prices increased by more than 10% on average, which led wafer suppliers to increase wafer prices As a result of rising wafer prices, the downswing in global PV module prices rebounded into an uptrend instead
TrendForce analyst Sharon Chen indicates that leading PV wafer supplier LONGi increased its wafer prices again this week in response to rising polysilicon costs, with an average increase of 7% (73% in the overseas markets) However, as end-market demand has yet to recover to a sufficient level, the increase in global PV module prices is projected to be limited despite their rebound
As end-market demand for PV modules in Taiwan declines, module price hikes are projected to reach about USD 15 cent/W at the most
Legislative changes issued by the Council of Agriculture in Taiwan last month strictly prohibited agricultural land from being used for green energy generation, thereby resulting in lower than expected PV module shipment in the downstream end-market More specifically, these changes are likely to lower downstream market demand by at least 500MW in installed PV capacity In addition to the installed capacity of merely 560MW in 1H20, large-scale grid-connected PV projects are expected to total about 350MW in 2H20, meaning yearly installed capacity still falls relatively short of expectations, and the government’s goal of reaching 65GW in cumulative installed PV capacity starting in 2016 remains a lofty goal
The continuous rise of polysilicon prices in the global market has brought about a corresponding increase in wafer prices, with many PV module suppliers in Taiwan mulling the possibility of increasing their module quotes as well, but the suppliers are likely to limit the magnitude of this price hike, since they fear that a significant price hike may cause customers to redirect orders elsewhere in light of weakened demand in 4Q20 On the whole, the increase in Taiwanese module prices is projected to fall between USD 1-15 cent/W Taiwanese PV module costs are relatively high, while mainstream module prices exceed the global average by at least 30% As such, Taiwanese PV modules are somewhat uncompetitive in the overseas markets, with domestic demand in Taiwan remaining as their only support
2020/07/29
The current progress of downstream PV system installation in Taiwan is considerably lagging behind the 22GW yearly installed PV capacity targeted by the Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs in 2020, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Taiwan’s cumulative installed PV capacity reached a mere 410MW during the first five months of the year Furthermore, recent legislative changes by the Council of Agriculture have made an impact on Taiwan’s PV industry, meaning the Bureau’s target of 22GW this year is a tall order for the market to reach However, total PV module shipment and inverter shipment in Taiwan have each closed in on the 1GW mark in 1H20, a historical high for both sectors
TrendForce analyst Sharon Chen indicates that the Taiwanese inverter industry saw significant reshuffling in 1H20, with Sungrow and SMA, a major inverter manufacturer, receiving orders for large-scale PV projects in Central Taiwan and Southern Taiwan, respectively As such, Sungrow and SMA both entered the top five list of inverter manufacturers Power optimizer manufacturer SolarEdge once again registered superb performance in 1H20, maintaining its spot on the list for the third year in a row On the other hand, KACO made an appearance in the top 10 list for the first time since 2017 by riding on the momentum of its channel advantages gained after the acquisition by Siemens in 2019
Cumulative capacity of PV module shipment approached the 1GW mark in 1H20 as Motech entered the top five list for the first time
The historical high in PV module shipment can be attributed to the fact that PV module orders deferred in 2019 must be fulfilled by module manufacturers in early 2020 In addition, module manufacturers were asked to deliver advance shipments in 1H20 in order for certain large-scale PV projects to make their 2H20 grid-connection deadlines These factors worked in tandem to drive PV module shipment close to 1GW With regards to the shipment performances by module manufacturers in 1H20, the Taiwanese PV module market showed a noticeable three-way dominance by URE, TSEC, and AUO Also worth noting is that Motech entered the top five list for the first time, likely because it was able to capture large-scale PV project orders from project developers
Large-scale PV projects remain the key to determining the 2H20 rankings of module manufacturers and inverter manufacturers in the Taiwanese market Although the Bureau of Energy stays confident that Taiwan is able to meet its targeted 22GW goal by the end of the year, actual capacity is expected to fall short of this target by 1800MW, judging by the status of market developments from June to the end of 2020 For Taiwan to reach the yearly target, an additional 250MW of PV capacity must be installed per month on average from June to December This amount is highly unlikely to be feasible Moreover, the legislative changes made by the Council of Agriculture are now substantially more stringent on PV projects than the past Therefore, TrendForce forecasts cumulative installed PV capacity in 2020 to be similar to 2019 figures, if no noticeable improvements were to take place in 3Q20
2020/03/18
The yearly COD capacity of the top 10 EPC suppliers accounted for 44% of Taiwan’s PV market
According to the latest edition of the 2020 Solar Powering Taiwan: Special Report, published by the EnergyTrend research division of TrendForce, the Taiwanese PV market reached newly installed capacity of 1,411MW in 2019, which was 94% of the way to meeting its 15GW goal Taiwan’s newly installed capacity in 2019 set a record since the market’s inception, in addition to landing it in the global GW-club
TrendForce Assistant Research Manager Sharon Chen states that the competition between EPC suppliers (that is, downstream PV system providers) intensified as various ground-mounted PV projects started to take place For EPC suppliers, securing these ground-mounted projects is the key to gaining a competitive advantage in the industry At any rate, the competition is expected to clear up in 2021 In the 2019 Taiwanese EPC market, Chailease emerged as the market leader, continuing its pole position from 2018, ranked by yearly grid-connection capacity (also known as COD, or commercial operation date, capacity) Of particular note, this market ranking does not distinguish between pure-play developers and power plant operators Chailease maintained its efforts on solar power purchasing agreements (PPA), with a chief focus on roof-type projects, while branching out to other types of PV developments Remarkably, however, Chailease has not as of yet undertaken any large-scale ground-mounted PV projects, which it is projected to start developing in order to maintain its market competitiveness Vena Energy, on the other hand, benefitted from the successful grid connection of its large-scale ground-mounted PV projects and ranks second on the list
The 10 largest EPC suppliers in Taiwan accounted for about 40% share of the domestic PV market in 2019, with only Chailease occupying over 10% of the market On the other hand, up to 50% of small-scale and medium-scale system suppliers in Taiwan individually produces yearly installed capacity from 2MW to 20MW These providers are key to securing Taiwan’s status as a GW PV market Looking towards the rest of 2020, Sharon Chen indicates that various regional markets around the globe have postponed their grid connection deadlines one after another, with Taiwan postponing its deadline by two months In light of these developments, the peak installation period for the global PV market this year is projected to begin in mid-3Q20, whereas PV module and raw material supply chains are expected to see gradual improvements in May regarding supply interruptions
2020/02/12
TSEC doubled its shipment in 2019 and dominated the module market with URE
In the inverter market, Delta held a 35% share and ranked first in terms of shipment for three consecutive years
The future supply of PV modules and inverters may be affected by the coronavirus outbreak, as China supplies the majority of raw materials
The latest analysis from the EnergyTrend research division of TrendForce finds that Taiwan’s newly installed capacity reached historical highs in 2019, with over 36% growth YoY compared to each quarter in 2018 This growth momentum is expected to continue in the next few years as large-scale ground-mounted PV projects are underway
According to Sharon Chen, assistant research manager at TrendForce, although newly installed capacity in 2019 continued to grow throughout the year, slow land mergers caused grid connection schedules to be postponed, subsequently stagnating new PV project developments in 2H19 As a result, shipments of module manufactures across the board failed to meet expectations, with only those manufacturers that secured large-scale project installations seeing shipment growth; all other manufacturers maintained their shipment levels In 2018, URE was born out of a three-way merger between NSP, Gintech, and Solartech and became the shipment leader However, in 2019 URE essentially shared its pole position with TSEC, with the combined shares between the two companies accounting for 50% of the entire market TSEC doubled its 2018 shipment numbers in 2019 by securing a contract for large-scale project installations
In the hypercompetitive inverter market, Delta reigned supreme as the 2019 shipment leader, whose market share reached 35%, a YoY increase from 2018 figures Remarkably, rising star TMEIC scored a contract as the supplier for a large-scale project installation and became the dark horse of 2019 TMEIC’s continued growth in 2020 depends on whether its products will be VPC-recognized
The coronavirus outbreak is expected to disrupt the supply of modules and inverters
According to TrendForce, the supply of key equipment such as modules and inverters will suffer the most damage from the coronavirus outbreak Many raw materials involved in module production, namely, silicon wafers and other auxiliary materials, such as EVA, aluminum frames, and glass, are sourced from the Chinese supply chain, which is now constrained by both logistical problems and work resumption delays Taiwanese manufacturers’ stockpile of raw materials from pre-Chinese New Year is expected to last until the end of February, at best Whereas some manufacturers can rely on their factories in Southeast Asia for module and inverter production, manufacturers without such an option must look to other means of production and adapt to market situations accordingly
China accounts for 80% of total inverter production capacity As such, limitations placed on import/export of goods at major Chinese ports, some of which are operating at less than 30% normal volume, such as the Port of Shanghai, will severely diminish the supply of inverters to the Taiwanese market At any rate, if the supply of either modules or inverters is disrupted, grid connections on the downstream PV system-end will be delayed as well; as such, 1Q20 is expected to have the lowest quarterly installation capacity in 2020 On the other hand, many projects that began installation in 2019 have April 30 as their deadline The shortage of modules and inverters will delay the installation schedule of these projects and subsequently postpone Taiwan’s goal of 22GW total installation capacity in 2020 TrendForce believes that the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the PV industry can best be alleviated through extending grid connection deadlines
2019/12/18
Since its domestic grid connections crossed the gigawatt mark in 2018, the Taiwanese solar energy market has come under international scrutiny, as the local government actively executes its two-year solar development program The latest analysis from the EnergyTrend research division of TrendForce shows that cumulative PV installations in Taiwan reached 38GW in September 2019; the adjustments made in the 2020 draft of feed-in tariffs (FIT) are expected to help Taiwan achieve its goal of 65GW cumulative PV installations in 2020
According to TrendForce analyst Sharon Chen, new solar installations in Taiwan since 2018 have been increasing at a rate of 12% QoQ on average, with a growth of 300MW QoQ However, many grid connections in 2018 did not reach completion until late-1Q19 to early-2Q19 The effect of a late announcement of revised FIT in early 2019 was reflected in the additional new installations in 3Q19 However, owing to the massive amount of time required by early preparation work, only 297MW of new installations took place in 3Q19, a decline of 99MW QoQ, which demonstrated a lack of demand contrary to seasonality Nevertheless, judging from the 955MW new grid installations from January to September 2019, total yearly grid installation capacity is expected to exceed 2018 numbers
If the Taiwanese solar PV market were to reach a 65GW installation capacity in 2020, quarterly grid connections must exceed 550MW Analyst Chen believes that the 3% overall tariff reduction in the new FIT draft is meant to prepare current mid- to large-scale projects for mass grid connection within the next two years The Taiwanese solar PV market is expected to demonstrate three major trends, as follows:
Trend 1: Land mergers continue while feeder line placement and UHV construction depend on collaboration with EPCs
Early preparations for large-scale ground-mounted PV stations are time-consuming, especially in terms of land mergers and UHV construction Part of the difficulty stems from the fact that the popularity of roof-mounted panels preceded ground installations in Taiwan Also, local authorities and the central government require time to come to an agreement regarding solar PV policies Thus, it takes more time and experience for large-scale project installations to become widespread On the other hand, feeder line grid connections and UHV constructions are facilitated only through the collaboration between the Taiwan Power Company and private EPCs Most mid-sized projects under 50MW are expected to commence in 3Q20, whereas large-scale ones will take place mainly in 2Q21 and 3Q21
Trend 2: Module manufacturers increase market shares in Taiwan as prices fall incrementally
Owing to the consistent performance of the Taiwanese domestic market, module manufacturers from Taiwan have gradually adjusted their domestic and overseas sales strategies in the past two years by raising their shares in the domestic market above 60% These manufacturers are projected to undertake no expansion plans or product innovations in 2020 Instead, conventional modules with power increase up to 10 watts will be the mainstream Solar module prices are projected to decrease 6% YoY in 2020
Trend 3: Overseas inverter manufacturers join the fray while extending warranty periods and increasing competition
As the global solar PV market becomes more and more diversified and stable, the Taiwanese solar industry holds increasing importance within it as well With the stabilization of FIT, both the PV power plant market and the inverter market are hotly contested by overseas manufacturers In an effort to win domestic orders and incentivize purchase, overseas inverter manufacturers have begun to extend the industry-standard five-year warranty to 10 years Under these conditions, manufacturers that manage to secure contracts for large-scale projects will become major players in a hypercompetitive market
