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Press Releases
Historically Low 2023 DRAM Demand Bit Growth at Only 8.3%, NAND Flash Expected to Drive Installed Capacity Growth Due to Falling Prices, Says TrendForce

2022/08/03

Semiconductors

According to TrendForce, DRAM market demand bit growth will only amount to 83% in 2023, sub-10% for the first time in history, and far lower than supply-side bit growth of approximately 141% Data indicates the DRAM market to be severely oversupplied at least in 2023 and prices may continue to decline NAND Flash is still in a state of oversupply and, although prices are expected to fall in the first half of next year, NAND Flash has built-in price elasticity compared to DRAM and average prices are expected to stimulate density growth in the enterprise SSD market after declining for several consecutive quarters Demand bits are expected to grow by 289%, while supply bits will grow by approximately 321% From the perspective of various applications, rising inflation continues to impact demand in consumer markets, so the primary goal of memory brands has been to prioritize inventory correction Especially in the past two years, a shortage of upstream components caused by the pandemic led memory brands to overbook purchase orders while sluggish sales on the distribution channel side have resulted in slow depletion of current notebook inventory, resulting in a further weakening of notebook demand in 2023 In terms of PC DRAM, the proportion of DDR4 and LPDDR4X in PC applications will fall further while the penetration rate of LPDDR5 and DDR5 continues to rise However, the price premium of DDR5 will limit the growth of density in PCs DRAM density in PCs is estimate to increase by approximately 7% annually in 2023 If manufactures cut DDR5 pricing more aggressively next year, installed capacity may be driven up to 9%, depending on whether DDR5 price concessions can be effectively reconciled with DDR4 In terms of PC client SSDs, estimated average installed capacity only increased slightly by 11%, the lowest in the past three years The primary reason is that in the past two years, notebook shipments had spiked due to pandemic demand, simultaneously driving SSD installation rate Average capacity has readily driven up average capacity growth due to the previous tightening of SSD master IC supply However, notebook computer whole device costs have maintained an upward trend in the past two years due to the rising price of components, leading to branded PC manufacturers planning relatively conservative SSD capacity demand bits Since server shipment forecasts have demonstrated impressive growth in past years, subsequent growth momentum will slow since computational fundamentals are already high In terms of Server DRAM, due to the advent of fifth generation memory specifications, the new Sapphire Rapids and Genoa platforms have increased the cost of whole devices and average server capacity has begun to encounter restrictions Instead of the prior practice of merely upgrading the capacity of a single module, demand side considerations will focus more on hardware costs and the practice of ESG strategies Average capacity increase of server DRAM is forecast to be limited in 2023, with an annual increase of approximately 7% In terms of Enterprise SSD, the new Sapphire Rapids and Genoa platforms have begun to upgrade to support the PCIe 50 transfer standard in order to meet the needs of HPC and big data computing The capacity of SSDs must also be upgraded simultaneously to ensure PCIe 50 transfer performance This trend will contribute to the growth of the average capacity of enterprise SSDs next year In addition, as the overall NAND Flash oversupply continues into 1H23, a reduction in NAND Flash pricing will increase the shipment ratio of products above 4TB and the average annual growth rate of enterprise SSD capacity in 2023 is estimated to be 26% As inflation rises, world economies are generally holding a pessimistic view of the consumer market TrendForce believes, cyclical replacement demand and new demand in emerging regions will lead to a slight increase in smartphone production In terms of Mobile DRAM, the Android camp currently has sufficient installed capacity to meet the needs of daily systems operation Therefore, barring impetus provided by innovative applications and considering the cost of whole devices and the low proportion of high-end sales, smartphone brands’ willingness to increase installed capacity has fallen accordingly In terms of the iOS camp, a high degree of operating system optimization reduces demand for mobile DRAM capacity Mobile DRAM density is estimated to increase by only 5% annually in 2023 In terms of smartphone NAND Flash, as the penetration rate of 5G smartphones gradually expands and applications require larger installed capacity to meet the needs of high-quality video recording, basic momentum can be seen for increasing NAND Flash density in smartphones At the same time, the iPhone product portfolio is still moving towards higher capacity across the board and high-end Android models have followed suit with 512GB as standard, while storage in mid- and low-end models will increase with subsequent upgrades in hardware specifications Thus, there is still room for growth in overall average capacity Annual growth of smartphone NAND Flash density is forecast to be maintained at 221% in 2023, slightly lower than that in 2022, but still at a high level For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/   The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively 【Info】 When:Wednesday, June, 15 Where:COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)

Press Releases
Supply Chain Overstocked, NAND Flash 3Q22 Price Drop to Broaden to 8~13%, Says TrendForce

2022/07/19

Semiconductors

According to TrendForce, market oversupply intensified in 2Q22 due to lagging demand and continued NAND Flash output and process advancement The market consensus is a disappointing 2H22 peak season for consumer electronics including notebooks, TVs, and smartphones Material inventory levels continue to rise and has become a risk to the supply chain Due to slow destocking among distributors and a conservative stocking approach among clients, inventory problems have bubbled over upstream onto the supply side and sellers are under increased pressure to sell TrendForce estimates, due to the rapid deterioration of the balance between supply and demand, the drop in NAND Flash pricing will expand to 8~13% in 3Q22, and this decline may continue into 4Q22 In terms of Client SSD, due to weak consumer demand, various PC brands have significantly reduced their purchase order volume in 3Q22 in order to digest 1H22 SSD inventory As suppliers shift focus to 176-layer client SSD, 176-layer QLC SSDs have begun to ship, and YMTC looks to expand shipment of notebook client SSDs in 2H22, price competition has become increasingly fierce, forcing manufacturers to increase price concessions to incentivize clients to up order volume Thus, the decline in client SSD pricing is expected to expand to 8~13% in 3Q22 In terms of Enterprise SSD, purchasing momentum in 2H22 will be inferior to 1H22, mainly due to the impact of the overall economic recession on server brands’ shipments of whole devices Corporate order volume continues to decline, simultaneously affecting the purchasing momentum of enterprise SSDs in 3Q22 Secondly, orders from cloud service providers in China were weak in 3Q22 and demand driven by shipments of next-generation server platforms failed to meet expectations In order to boost the growth of enterprise SSD revenue, suppliers expect to stimulate sales through more generous price negotiations However, buyers are currently unwilling to expand procurement, so enterprise SSD price declines are estimated to broaden to 5~10% in 3Q22 In terms of eMMC, weak demand for major applications such as chromebooks and TVs has induced buyers to carefully control inventory, so it is hard to see any signs of life in eMMC pricing Although manufacturers’ long-term plans involve a continued reduction in the supply of 2D eMMC products to keep prices stable End customers and module customers are focused on destocking due to the recent overall downward trend in demand Eventually, oversupply in the eMMC market will become more serious than expected Therefore, the price of eMMC in 3Q22 will drop by another 8-13% In terms of UFS, since China’s 618 e-commerce promotions have not induced recovery in smartphone demand, destocking of whole devices has become a top priority for Chinese OEMs Sluggish demand has not only impacted Chinese smartphone brands Even Samsung, which is mainly focused on markets excluding China, has warned that the demand outlook is clouded, leading to a sustained weakening of the UFS market in 2H22 Originally, sellers held the view that price concessions would not stimulate demand and were unwilling to negotiate pricing With rising inventory pressure, reducing prices to capture sales is inevitable The decline in UFS pricing is estimated to expand to 8~13% in 3Q22 In terms of NAND Flash wafers, a rebound in demand during peak season and the lifting of lockdowns in China were originally forecast to refresh the market However, demand continues to deteriorate and inventory at module factories and end customers remains high, resulting in a sustained decline in wafer quotations At the same time, manufacturers continue to expand the supply of wafers and process optimization continued to improve, resulting in magnified inventory pressure at the factory end The decline in NAND Flash wafer pricing is estimated to expand to 15~20% in 3Q22 For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/ The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively 【Info】 When:Wednesday, June, 15 Where:COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)

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