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Press Releases
Notebook Computer Shipments for 1Q23 Are Projected Reach 10-Year Low for First-Quarter Result, and 10% of Global Notebook Computer Shipments for 2023 Will Come from Vietnam, Says TrendForce


Consumer Electronics

Due to the various major events that affected the global economy and politics, the overall demand for consumer electronics made a sharp downward turn in 2022, and global shipments of notebook (laptop) computers began to fall over the quarters TrendForce’s latest analysis finds that global shipments of notebook computers (from ODMs) reached just around 186 million units for 2022, showing a YoY drop of 245% As for 2023, the outlook on the performance of the notebook computer market remains uncertain at this moment TrendForce expects the YoY decline to moderate to about 78%, but shipments are projected to total only 171 million units Because market demand was anemic in 4Q22, promotional activities related to the traditional year-end peak season did not generate a lot of sales momentum Looking at regional markets, notebook brands (PC OEMs) slashed prices in the US and China, but their sales results still did not meet expectations This development was mainly attributed to factors such as high inflation suppressing consumers’ disposable income Since the sales results for 4Q22 were lackluster, efforts to get rid of the existing stockpile of whole devices might continue through 2Q23 Furthermore, order placements from channels are going to be much more restrained Additionally, the Lunar New Year holiday for 2023 is going to arrive earlier compared with the previous years, and notebook brands have anticipated that the course of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreaks in China will become a huge market variable after the holiday Besides low demand visibility, whether device shipments will be impacted by another round of pandemic-induced component shortages has also been a major concern In view of this situation, notebook brands have raised inventory for their popular device models Moreover, they completed shipments for some orders ahead of schedule before the end of 2022 Because of these actions, global notebook shipments are forecast to drop by 95% QoQ to 351 million units for 1Q23 This projection is a 10-year low for first-quarter result Supply Chain Is Shifting, and US-Based Brands Are Main Driving Force Behind ODMs’ Relocation Efforts The continuation of the US-China trade dispute has led to increasing geopolitical tensions across the globe Hence, the major electronics brands have revamped their supply chain strategies in recent years Among them, US-based brands have been the most aggressive in relocating device production and finding alternative sources of component supply While political and economic pressures are the well-recognized factors that propel US-based brands to change their strategies, these major brands themselves also have the scale to persuade the rest of the participants in the supply chain to follow their lead According to TrendForce’s latest observations, strategic considerations about future geopolitical developments could lead to two models for notebook production located outside China The first model will be centered on Vietnam as the country has both geographical and demographical advantages Materials and components from China can be quickly transported to assembly plants in Vietnam At the same time, Vietnam has a relatively young and low-cost labor pool The demographical advantage might be the more significant incentive for brands and ODMs to set up shop there Presently, ODMs such as Compal, Wistron, and Foxconn have begun to build notebook assembly lines in Vietnam in response to the requests made by their clients from the US Additionally, among the US-based notebook brands, the leader in commercial models has set the target of raising the share of its device shipments from Vietnam to 20% for 2023 Moreover, this brand will reduce the share of its device shipments from China to just 20~30% by 2027 Likewise, another US-based electronics brand that has gained substantial brand influence with its in-house SOCs has decided to establish a complete manufacturing cluster for its products in Vietnam From that country, this brand will ship not only notebook computers but also earphones, smartphones, etc TrendForce estimates that Vietnam will account for 10% of its notebook computer shipments for 2023 As for the second model, it involves setting up assembly lines and raising device production in or near a sizable consumer market One US-based brand (that is separate from the two that are mentioned above) will be raising device production volume at its assembly lines in Mexico in order to better serve the North American market Moreover, the same brand is seeking partners in India so as to set up local assembly lines that manufacture products targeting local consumers Since foreign manufacturers that set up shop in India will benefit from a substantial tax incentive, this brand will be able to attain a considerable price advantage as well Data from the UN indicate that India’s population will surpass that of China within 2023 become the world’s most populous country Hence, electronics brands around the world are preparing to make the Indian market their main battleground A potential development that the market looks forward to in the near future is whether India can replicate the same kind of model that has existed in China for outsourcing and selling electronics For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Economic Headwinds Intensify, Inventories Await Depletion, Global Notebook Shipments Forecast at Only 176 Million Units in 2023, Says TrendForce


Consumer Electronics

According to TrendForce, global notebook shipments in 4Q22 are likely to decline to 429 million units, down 72% QoQ and 323% YoY, lower than the same period before the pandemic In addition, market demand is affected by negative factors such as inventory, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and rising inflation, leading to a downward revision of notebook market shipments in 2022 to 189 million units, a 23% decline YoY, with the proportion of shipments in the first and second half of the year at 53:47, the first top-heavy scenario in the past ten years According to research, the structural imbalance between notebook market supply and demand remains unresolved at present, leading this year's notebook shipments to present a downward movement trend quarter by quarter TrendForce believes, after current inventory pressure gradually returns to a healthy level, Chromebooks may be the first wave of products that will see a recovery in demand by 2Q23 and traditional cyclical growth momentum is expected to return to the market, with shipments set to rebound slightly from 1444 million in 2022 to 162 million units As mentioned above, pressure will continue in the consumer and commercial notebook market Although demand for the former has been adjusting for five quarters, peak season momentum is still expected to play a major role Coupled with assistance from the introduction of new CPUs, shipments of consumer notebooks will track closer to traditional peak season demand but declines will be inevitable throughout the year Commercial demand faces dollar rate hikes leading to higher corporate borrowing rates and post-pandemic scenarios including capital expenditure adjustment, downsizing, and layoffs, which will cause an even greater decline than that of consumer notebooks In addition, although pandemic-induced demand has gradually weakening, hindering the growth of the high-end notebook market in 2022, TrendForce has observed that gaming and creator notebooks will remain cash cows Facing the dilemma of the gradual decline in global notebook shipments, the high-margin nature of the segmented market has become more prominent Major notebook manufacturers and processor brands such as Intel and Nvidia are all competing to expand, enhancing consumers’ user experience by means of high specifications and customization, while stimulating potential market demand to become a category of notebook computers capable of continual future growth However, inflationary pressure and geopolitics remain as variables in the general environment and the consumer electronics sector has borne the brunt of this uncertainty The future shipment scale of the notebook computer market must still reference these relevant developments closely In addition, considering that China continues to adopt a tough Zero-COVID policy after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the adversarial relationship between it and the United States, supply chain strategies are also under scrutiny by major manufacturers According to TrendForce research, due to the cumbersome and vast industrial settlement characteristics associated with notebook components, only major American manufacturers are currently promoting production development in Vietnam Even though industrial chain reorganization to decouple from China has been in motion for some time, it still needs to be promoted by brands and ODMs in the short term As the global economy maintains course through battering headwinds, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the 2023 economic growth rate will be approximately 27%, down 05 percentage points from 2022, which will be the most severe economic winter in 20 years Overall, TrendForce estimates that there is no sign of obvious recovery in the global notebook market in 2023 Although the annual decline in shipments has abated to 69%, it will only reach 176 million units For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

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