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Keyword：Mia Huang，
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2022/08/31
According to TrendForce investigations, 2H22 smartphone production planning was quite conservative as brands gave priority to adjusting distribution channel inventory At the same time, weak market demand worsened on the back of China's pandemic controls and brands were forced to lower their production targets As a whole, production volume dropped 6% in Q2, even though volume had always grown in previous second quarters Global output was only roughly 292 million units, a 5% annual decline compared with the production performance in the same period in 2021 when a second wave of pandemic outbreaks occurred in South Asia and Southeast Asia
As the primary vendor in Europe, Samsung was forced to carry out a series of inventory adjustments for finished products and components including large-scale promotions and suspension of component procurement due to the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war Thus, production volume in 2Q22 was significantly reduced by 163% QoQ to 618 million units Looking to the third quarter, Samsung is still focusing on the adjustment of distribution channel inventory and, as the outlook remains conservative, total production in 3Q22 is estimated to remain flat or trend upward marginally compared to 2Q22 It is worth noting that in recent years, due to Samsung's aggressive investment in the research and development and marketing of folding devices, the company has successfully maintained the popularity of these devices, and has also become the market leader in this segment Samsung will account for nearly 90% of the 11% 2022 global smartphone market share held by folding devices
The second quarter is a transition period for Apple as it hands off old models for new and is nominally the quarter with the lowest production performance during the year Initial operational performance was affected in the second quarter by the implementation of lockdowns in Shanghai and Kunshan which hobbled supply chain supply The output shortfall created during the lockdown period was made up with production capacity adjustment after the lockdowns were lifted Apple still produced 482 million units in 2Q22, ranking second in the world Looking to the third quarter, the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max are among four new models to be upgraded to the A16 (TSMC 4nm) processor Upgrades such as initial starting memory capacity increasing to LPDDR5 6GB and 256GB, primary camera moving up to 48 million, Face ID Design changes, etc, are expected to raise starting prices However, under pressure from rising global inflation and foreign exchange rates, Apple is expected to adopt a more cautious pricing strategy so as not to affect its sales performance
OPPO (including Realme, OnePlus) produced 388 million units, down 42% QoQ Xiaomi (including Redmi, POCO, Black Shark) produced 38 million units in 2Q22, down 146% QoQ Since Vivo (including iQoo) began to adjust its pace of production significantly in 1Q22, it rebounded to 257 million units in 2Q22, up 127% QoQ The three aforementioned brands are ranked third to fifth, respectively These three brands overlap significantly in sales market and product planning In 2Q22, China’s lockdowns and extreme weather in the Indian market affected economic performance, resulting in sluggish sales in these two major markets, which in turn affected production performance in 2Q22 Furthermore, the rapid rise of Honor in the Chinese market poses a considerable threat to the market share of brands such as OPPO, Xiaomi, and Vivo Honor’s market share in China is estimated to surpass Xiaomi and approach OPPO and Vivo in 2022
Looking to the third quarter, China’s economy, the primary market of OPPO, Xiaomi, and Vivo, is expected to remain weak Originally upbeat emerging markets such as India and Indonesia have also found it difficult to maintain growth due to global inflation, food crises, and extreme weather Considering the numerous negative market factors and the fact that distribution channel inventory is still to be digested, TrendForce believes that the production volume of the three aforementioned brands will be roughly in line with 2Q22, while all showing a sharp decline of more than 10% compared with the same period last year, which is enough to herald worrying performance in peak season during 2H22 On the whole, the Chinese market, one of the world’s three major markets, has reached a high degree of saturation and demand growth has slowed In the future, the focus of China’s three major smartphone brands will remain on expanding overseas markets
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/08/03
According to TrendForce, DRAM market demand bit growth will only amount to 83% in 2023, sub-10% for the first time in history, and far lower than supply-side bit growth of approximately 141% Data indicates the DRAM market to be severely oversupplied at least in 2023 and prices may continue to decline NAND Flash is still in a state of oversupply and, although prices are expected to fall in the first half of next year, NAND Flash has built-in price elasticity compared to DRAM and average prices are expected to stimulate density growth in the enterprise SSD market after declining for several consecutive quarters Demand bits are expected to grow by 289%, while supply bits will grow by approximately 321%
From the perspective of various applications, rising inflation continues to impact demand in consumer markets, so the primary goal of memory brands has been to prioritize inventory correction Especially in the past two years, a shortage of upstream components caused by the pandemic led memory brands to overbook purchase orders while sluggish sales on the distribution channel side have resulted in slow depletion of current notebook inventory, resulting in a further weakening of notebook demand in 2023 In terms of PC DRAM, the proportion of DDR4 and LPDDR4X in PC applications will fall further while the penetration rate of LPDDR5 and DDR5 continues to rise However, the price premium of DDR5 will limit the growth of density in PCs DRAM density in PCs is estimate to increase by approximately 7% annually in 2023 If manufactures cut DDR5 pricing more aggressively next year, installed capacity may be driven up to 9%, depending on whether DDR5 price concessions can be effectively reconciled with DDR4
In terms of PC client SSDs, estimated average installed capacity only increased slightly by 11%, the lowest in the past three years The primary reason is that in the past two years, notebook shipments had spiked due to pandemic demand, simultaneously driving SSD installation rate Average capacity has readily driven up average capacity growth due to the previous tightening of SSD master IC supply However, notebook computer whole device costs have maintained an upward trend in the past two years due to the rising price of components, leading to branded PC manufacturers planning relatively conservative SSD capacity demand bits
Since server shipment forecasts have demonstrated impressive growth in past years, subsequent growth momentum will slow since computational fundamentals are already high In terms of Server DRAM, due to the advent of fifth generation memory specifications, the new Sapphire Rapids and Genoa platforms have increased the cost of whole devices and average server capacity has begun to encounter restrictions Instead of the prior practice of merely upgrading the capacity of a single module, demand side considerations will focus more on hardware costs and the practice of ESG strategies Average capacity increase of server DRAM is forecast to be limited in 2023, with an annual increase of approximately 7%
In terms of Enterprise SSD, the new Sapphire Rapids and Genoa platforms have begun to upgrade to support the PCIe 50 transfer standard in order to meet the needs of HPC and big data computing The capacity of SSDs must also be upgraded simultaneously to ensure PCIe 50 transfer performance This trend will contribute to the growth of the average capacity of enterprise SSDs next year In addition, as the overall NAND Flash oversupply continues into 1H23, a reduction in NAND Flash pricing will increase the shipment ratio of products above 4TB and the average annual growth rate of enterprise SSD capacity in 2023 is estimated to be 26%
As inflation rises, world economies are generally holding a pessimistic view of the consumer market TrendForce believes, cyclical replacement demand and new demand in emerging regions will lead to a slight increase in smartphone production In terms of Mobile DRAM, the Android camp currently has sufficient installed capacity to meet the needs of daily systems operation Therefore, barring impetus provided by innovative applications and considering the cost of whole devices and the low proportion of high-end sales, smartphone brands’ willingness to increase installed capacity has fallen accordingly In terms of the iOS camp, a high degree of operating system optimization reduces demand for mobile DRAM capacity Mobile DRAM density is estimated to increase by only 5% annually in 2023
In terms of smartphone NAND Flash, as the penetration rate of 5G smartphones gradually expands and applications require larger installed capacity to meet the needs of high-quality video recording, basic momentum can be seen for increasing NAND Flash density in smartphones At the same time, the iPhone product portfolio is still moving towards higher capacity across the board and high-end Android models have followed suit with 512GB as standard, while storage in mid- and low-end models will increase with subsequent upgrades in hardware specifications Thus, there is still room for growth in overall average capacity Annual growth of smartphone NAND Flash density is forecast to be maintained at 221% in 2023, slightly lower than that in 2022, but still at a high level
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively
【Info】
When：Wednesday, June, 15
Where：COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)
2022/07/04
According to the latest TrendForce research, despite the rapid weakening of overall consumer demand in 1H22, DRAM manufacturers previously presented a tough stance on price negotiations and gave little ground, steadily conveying inventory pressure from buyers to sellers Facing uncertain peak-season demand in 2H22, some DRAM suppliers have begun effectively expressing clear intentions to cut prices, especially in the server field, where demand is relatively stable, in order to reduce inventory pressure This situation will cause 3Q22 DRAM pricing to drop from the previous 3~8% to nearly 10% QoQ If a price war is incited due to companies competing for sales, the drop in prices may exceed 10%
PC OEMs have continuously downgraded their shipment prospects With average DRAM inventory levels at more than two months, unless a huge price incentive exists, there is no urgent demand for procurement At the same time, thanks to continuous adoption of the advanced 1Z/1alpha process, supply continued to increase in 3Q22 DDR4 output could not be effectively reduced due to high pricing limiting the penetration rate of DDR5 The price decline of PC DRAM in 3Q22 is revised to 5~10%
At present, server DRAM inventory clients have on hand is approximately 7 to 8 weeks and the buyers’ consensus is that the price of DRAM will continue to fall due to increased inventory pressure on sellers If manufacturers are willing to provide attractive quotations, buyers are willing to discuss the possibility of volume commitments As advanced manufacturing processes progress dynamically and terminal consumer products continue to weaken, server DRAM has become the only effective sales outlet Therefore, Korean manufacturers were the first to signal a willingness to discuss a quarterly pricing reduction of more than 5%, which expanded the decline of server DRAM to 5~10% in 3Q22
Smartphone production targets continued to be downgraded due to the sluggish economy In addition, smartphone brands are also pessimistic regarding future prospects, casting a gloom over their attitude towards materials stocking However, the output of mobile DRAM still increased in 3Q22 due to the adoption of advanced processes among several manufacturers, increasing pressure on suppliers This increases the willingness of sellers to offer price concessions Given the polarized disparity between supply and demand, the pricing decline of mobile DRAM is forecast to expand to 8-13% this quarter
Demand for graphics DRAM procurement has weakened due to inflation-related reduction in consumer products demand and a faltering cryptocurrency market At the same time, migrating graphics DRAM production capacity to other types of DRAM products in not as easy as migrating standard DRAM (Commodity DRAM) capacity Although demand has weakened, it is difficult for suppliers to quickly adjust output Therefore, they are also facing increasing inventory pressure Graphics DRAM pricing in 3Q22 is revised to decline 3-8% QoQ
TV shipments lead the fall and demand related to networking and industrial applications have also shown signs of weakening The price of DDR3 is currently at a relatively high point and there is plenty of room for pricing to fall in the future Weak stocking momentum originating from DDR4-related applications does not rule out the possibility of a wider decline In addition to the expansion of output due to the introduction of advanced processes, Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers will still add new production capacity in 2H22 The decline in consumer DRAM pricing is forecast to deepen to 8~13% this quarter
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively
【Info】
When：Wednesday, June, 15
Where：COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)
2021/04/08
TrendForce’s investigations finds that LG manufactured merely 306 million smartphones last year, which represented a 24% market share The Korean company took ninth place in the global ranking of smartphone brands by production volume in 2020 At the start of this year, LG began to consider either selling or shuttering its mobile phone unit Around that same time, it also suspended the R&D of new smartphone models On April 5, LG announced the decision to fold up the mobile phone unit as it was ultimately unable to offset consecutive years of financial losses it suffered in the smartphone market Based on the company’s current plan, the mobile phone unit will wind down its operation by the end of July, while its smartphone manufacturing operations will cease by the end of 2Q21 TrendForce therefore expects LG to occupy a lower than 1% share in the smartphone market this year Incidentally, the conditions for survival for smartphone brands have further deteriorated on account of the increasingly fierce market competition as well as the recent and continuing hike in component prices Taken altogether, these developments will reinforce the trend of the dominant brands having more and more market share in the future at the expense of the smaller brands
Regarding LG’s performance in the smartphone market during the recent years, the company spared no effort in high-end R&D, with such results as the LG Wing with a rotating screen and the LG Rollable, which, as the name suggests, features a side-rolling display The latter model remained a concept and did not enter mass production Despite its efforts, LG however continued to lag behind in sales when compared with the other major brands, such as Samsung and Apple LG had a relatively weak position in the high-end segment of the smartphone market As for the mid-range and entry-level segments, LG could not match Chinese brands in terms of pricing To optimize its cost structure, LG expanded the share of device production going to ODMs Nevertheless, this action was too late to turn things around
Samsung, Lenovo, and Xiaomi are likely to benefit from LG’s exit from the North and Latin American markets
LG’s smartphone business has become unprofitable since 2Q15; and its financial losses were further exacerbated after it made a gradual exit from the Chinese market in 2016 As of 4Q20, LG’s smartphone business suffered 23 consecutive quarters of financial losses, which totaled about 5 trillion KRW Despite LG’s limited market share, however, its exit from the various regional smartphone markets will still benefit its competitors in those markets, in particular, the mid-range segment in North America and Latin America With regards to North America, LG’s market share there will be split among its Android-based competitors, including Samsung, Lenovo (Motorola), and other in-house, private brands owned by domestic telecom operators With regards to Latin America, on the other hand, LG’s exit will more noticeably benefit Lenovo (Motorola) and Xiaomi
Looking ahead to the rest of 2021, as vaccinations begin to take place around the world, TrendForce expects the smartphone industry, which fulfills a basic living necessity, to make a gradual recovery as well Thanks to the general public’s cyclical replacement demand, as well as growing demand from emerging markets, total smartphone production remains unaffected by LG’s exit As a result, TrendForce maintains its smartphone production forecast of 136 billion units for 2021, a 9% increase YoY
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
2020/08/25
The COVID-19 pandemic has compelled governments worldwide to impose border closures and regional lockdowns, which led to significant declines in various countries’ GDPs this year As economic and social activities around the world have stagnated, the performance of the smartphone industry was severely damaged in 2Q20 According to TrendForce’s latest investigations, total smartphone production reached 286 million units in 2Q20, a slight QoQ rebound of 22%, but a 167% decrease YoY, which is the largest quarterly YoY drop in history
TrendForce indicates that governments in many countries have started to ease some of the restrictive measures for containing COVID-19 and launched economic stimulus policies to generate consumer demand These developments will be beneficial for the smartphone market’s potential rebound going into the second half of the year Total smartphone production for 3Q20 is expected to reach 335 million units, a 101% decrease YoY Although this figure falls short compared with the same period last year, it still represents a 172% increase QoQ
Samsung was the only manufacturer among the top six to see its market share decline in 2Q20, while Huawei’s market share in China may be cannibalized by its competitors
In the course of the COVID-19 pandemic since March, the situation has gotten worse for most countries Europe, the US, and India are the major markets for Samsung smartphones when looking at sales by region Their outbreaks were very severe during 2Q20, and this affected Samsung more than the other brands in the top six Although Samsung led the industry in terms of smartphone production with 55 million units in 2Q20, it is also the only brand among the top six that posted a QoQ decline, which approached 16% Moving to 3Q20, as China-US tensions intensify due to the latter's sanctions against Huawei, and China-India relations continue to destabilize, Samsung has been building up its inventories as it targets the entry-level and mid-range segments in order to compensate for its poor performances in the previous quarter Samsung’s production volume is likely to increase in 3Q20
Placing second in the production ranking, Huawei, which continues to heavily rely on the Chinese market, raised its smartphone production by 13% QoQ to around 52 million units for 2Q20 Competition in this market is expected to intensify in 3Q20 as smartphone brands release their new flagship models in 2H20 Huawei’s smartphone sales in overseas markets have been falling sharply since the end of 2019 as the effect of the trade actions by the US government began to take their toll These measures will make the R&D of in-house mobile processors and sourcing of components much more difficult for this Chinese smartphone brand Given that Huawei depends on China for smartphone sales, other Chinese brands, including Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo, are expected to cut into Huawei’s market share
Apple’s iPhone production in 2Q20 rose by 8% QoQ to 41 million units thanks to above-expected sales of the iPhone SE and the iPhone 11 This performance also gives the brand third place in the ranking Moving to 3Q20, the demand for the iPhone SE and iPhone 11 is expected to remain strong At the same time, Apple will begin mass producing the four new models in the (tentatively named) iPhone 12 series, which are equipped with 5G capabilities, thereby raising its quarterly smartphone production The BOM costs of the iPhone 12 models are significantly higher compared with the models in the previous series because of the 5G support To cut costs and stabilize retail pricing, Apple has decided to sell the upcoming iPhones without accessories such as wired earphones, power adapter, etc This move is expected to help with sales performance However, recent orders by the Trump administration barring US businesses from carrying out transactions with TikTok, WeChat, and their respective parent companies ByteDance and Tencent may have an impact on Apple’s sales performances in the Chinese market going forward
Xiaomi is fourth in the production ranking for 2Q20 with 295 million units, OPPO (including OPPO, OnePlus, and realme) is fifth with 275 million, and Vivo is sixth with 265 million The three Chinese brands benefitted from the recent recovery of their home market Furthermore, they also took advantage of the precautionary inventory building in the overseas retail channels during the first half of the year Retailers stocked up aggressively during that time in fear of pandemic-related disruptions As a result, they all posted an increase of more than 10% QoQ for 2Q20 Recent border tensions between India and China have placed considerable pressure on the three brands’ sales efforts since they all count on India as one of their major foreign markets On the other hand, they have been cultivating their presence in the country for a long time This, combined with their products’ price competitiveness, may be enough to get them through this difficult period with their market shares relatively intact Nevertheless, Chinese smartphone brands will be very constrained in terms of growth if the relationship between their home country and India remains tense Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo will continue to prioritize the entry-level and mid-range segments in their overseas expansion strategies, which include regions such as Europe, India, Southeast Asia, and Russia, over the long term In China, the three brands will capitalize on the Chinese government’s push to commercialize 5G services by being more proactive in the development and pricing of 5G smartphones
Smartphone market will likely see a rebound in production and a sharp rise in 5G penetration in 2021
TrendForce forecasts a yearly smartphone production volume of 124 billion units for 2020, an 113% decrease YoY Assuming the pandemic can be brought under control in 2021, total smartphone production is likely to make a rebound next year As well, smartphone brands are pushing out 5G models this year to maintain their market shares in the face of the recent demand slump Since mobile SoC suppliers such as Qualcomm and MediaTek are also starting to provide 5G solutions for mid-range and high-end smartphones, the share of 5G models in the annual total smartphone production is projected to grow rapidly to 192% for 2020 This penetration rate is equivalent to around 238 million units
