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2023/09/08
Apple is slated to unveil four new iPhone models in mid-September: the iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Plus, iPhone 15 Pro, and iPhone 15 Pro Max TrendForce predicts a production figure of approximately 80 million units for the iPhone 15 series This represents a 6% YoY growth, bouncing back from last year’s Foxconn-related production hiccups The Pro series, armed with smoother production cycles and the Pro Max’s exclusive periscope lens, is poised to be a consumer magnet and potentially propel the Pro series to constitute over 60% of Apple's new device production However, with overall gloomy market sentiment and Huawei’s comeback in full swing, Apple’s total iPhone sales for the year may take a hit, expected to hover between 220 to 225 million units for a 5% YoY decline
In regard to specifications for the iPhone 15 series, several noteworthy hardware upgrades have been made Compliance with EU regulations has led Apple to jump on the USB Type-C bandwagon this year The iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus will come with significant camera upgrades, sporting a 48MP main sensor to align with the Pro series Furthermore, they will also be featuring Apple’s Dynamic Island On the other hand, the Pro series promises cutting-edge processor upgrades, increased Dram capacity, and introduces a titanium-aluminum alloy frame The Pro Max also intends to elevate mobile photography to the next level with its exclusive periscope lens
Advances in technology, while exciting, can also ratchet up the intricacies of mass production Reports of component snags and assembly issues have surfaced as production of the new iPhone models revs up in the third quarter The iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus, in particular, have been grappling with lower-than-expected yield rates for their new 48MP cameras Meanwhile, the Pro series is confronting challenges with panel and titanium alloy frame assembly However, evidence suggests that the Pro series is likely to overcome its obstacles more swiftly than its non-Pro counterparts
iPhone 15 Pro Max may see a price increase to reflect cost differences
In light of the global economic downturn, Apple is contemplating a cautious pricing strategy to preserve its sales volumes While the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus boast 48MP main cameras, they’ll inherit the A16 processor from the iPhone 14 Pro series, with no other significant upgrades Hence, their starting prices are projected to be aggressively competitive The iPhone 15 Pro may sport several enhancements that inflate costs, yet these are anticipated to be offset by cost reductions in other components
Overall, TrendForce predicts a stable pricing landscape for the iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Plus, and iPhone 15 Pro, largely mirroring last year’s figures The Pro Max, however, is a different story Equipped with an exclusive high-cost periscope lens, it’s expected to command a premium—likely a bump of up to US$100—to reflect its increased production costs Should this price adjustment materialize, it would mark the first such move since the era of the iPhone X
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/09/04
TrendForce reports global smartphone production has faced back-to-back quarterly declines After plunging nearly 20% in 1Q23, second-quarter numbers dwindled further by approximately 66%, settling at a modest 272 million units The first half of 2023 clocked in at a mere 522 million units—marking a 133% YoY decline and setting a ten-year low for both individual quarters and the first half of the year combined
TrendForce identifies three key reasons behind this slump in production:
The easing of pandemic restrictions in China failed to spur demand
The demographic dividend from the emerging Indian market has yet to translate into tangible demand
Initially, it was estimated that brands would return to normal production levels as excess inventory was cleared However, the current economic downturn has kept consumer spending in check—undermining first-half production more than expected
Transsion Overtakes Vivo to Enter Global Top 5, Q2 Production Surges by Over 70%
In a dramatic shake-up of global rankings, Transsion (including TECNO, Infinix, and itel) eclipsed Vivo to secure the fifth spot for the first time ever TrendFroce reveals that Transsion’s high production output benefited from a trifecta of inventory replenishment, new product launches, and its entry into mid-to-high-end markets Demonstrating robust production performance since March, the company’s growth trajectory is poised to extend its momentum into Q3 Meanwhile, Vivo (including Vivo and iQoo) is treading cautiously amid a sluggish global economy, which is evident in its conservative production plan: Vivo churned out 23 million units in Q2—a modest quarterly increase of 15%—and as a result, slipped to sixth place in global rankings
Apple Closes Gap with Samsung, Vying for Global Market Leadership in 2023
Samsung continues to lead in production rankings, delivering 539 million units in Q2 However, it suffered a 124% QoQ downturn Amid global economic headwinds and fierce competition, coupled with a waning halo effect from its flagship phone releases earlier in the year, Samsung’s Q2 performance lagged behind the same period last year Although Samsung is set to roll out new foldable models in Q3, the impact on its overall growth is expected to be marginal given the relatively low sales volume compared to its Galaxy S series
Apple’s second quarter is typically the weakest quarter in terms of production, owing to its transition between older and newer models Output for the second quarter clocked in at 42 million units, marking a 212% dip from the preceding quarter The upcoming iPhone 15/15 Plus could face headwinds due to suboptimal yields in its CMOS Image Sensors, potentially impacting its Q3 production performance Intriguingly, Apple and Samsung are neck-and-neck in their annual production projections Should the iPhone 15 series outperform market expectations, Apple stands a good chance of ousting Samsung from its long-held position as the global market leader
Xiaomi (including Xiaomi, Redmi, and POCO) is reveling in a bountiful Q2, posting production numbers of around 35 million units—a staggering seasonal uptick of 321% This boom can be attributed to a strategic depletion of channel inventory coupled with the allure of new product launches However, Xiaomi’s channel inventory still runs high, setting the stage for a Q3 that is likely to mirror its Q2 performance On the other side of the spectrum, Oppo (including Oppo, Real, and OnePlus) also had a fruitful Q2 The brand primarily rode the wave of rebounding demand in Southeast Asia and other regions, amassing approximately 336 million units and marking a seasonal leap of 254% With seasonal demands on the horizon, Oppo’s Q3 production is poised for an estimated growth of 10~15%, primarily targeting markets in China, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, hot on Xiaomi’s heels
Overall Economic Recovery Remains Unclear, Smartphone Production May Be Further Reduced in H2
Demand in consumer markets such as China, Europe, and North America has not shown a significant rebound as we move into the second half of the year Even if economic indicators in the Indian market improve, it is still difficult to reverse the global decline in smartphone production TrendForce predicts that the smartphone market may undergo another shift in Q2 this year due to poor global economic conditions, and production for the second half may consequently be further reduced Looking ahead to 2024, the current economic outlook is not optimistic TrendForce maintains its forecast of a 2~3% annual increase in global production, depending on regional economic trends Whether this will further drag down production remains to be seen
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/08/30
TrendForce expects that memory suppliers will continue their strategy of scaling back production of both DRAM and NAND Flash in 2024, with the cutback being particularly pronounced in the financially struggling NAND Flash sector Market demand visibility for consumer electronic is projected to remain uncertain in 1H24 Additionally, capital expenditure for general-purpose servers is expected to be weakened due to competition from AI servers Considering the low baseline set in 2023 and the current low pricing for some memory products, TrendForce anticipates YoY bit demand growth rates for DRAM and NAND Flash to be 13% and 16%, respectively Nonetheless, achieving effective inventory reduction and restoring supply-demand balance next year will largely hinge on suppliers’ ability to exercise restraint in their production capacities If managed effectively, this could open up an opportunity for a rebound in average memory prices
PC: The annual growth rate for average DRAM capacity is projected at approximately 124%, driven mainly by Intel’s new Meteor Lake CPUs coming into mass production in 2024 This platform’s DDR5 and LPDDR5 exclusivity will likely make DDR5 the new mainstream, surpassing DDR4 in the latter half of 2024 The growth rate in PC client SSDs will not be as robust as that of PC DRAM, with just an estimated growth of 8–10% As consumer behavior increasingly shifts toward cloud-based solutions, the demand for laptops with large storage capacities is decreasing Even though 1 TB models are becoming more available, 512 GB remains the predominant storage option Furthermore, memory suppliers are maintaining price stability by significantly reducing production Should prices hit rock bottom and subsequently rebound, PC OEMs are expected to face elevated SSD costs This, when combined with Windows increasing its licensing fees for storage capacities at and above 1 TB, is likely to put a damper on further growth in average storage capacities
Servers: The annual growth rate for the average capacity of server DRAM is estimated to reach 173% This surge is primarily fueled by generational transitions in server platforms, a heightened dependency on RAM that is coordinated with CPU cores in specific CSP operations, and the high computational load requirements of AI servers Enterprise SSDs: The estimated annual growth rate of average capacity stands at 147% For CSPs, the rollout of processors supporting PCle 50 suggests that inventory levels for these OEMs should return to normal by early next year, likely prompting an uptick in the procurement of 8 TB products On the brand side for servers, while the sharp decline in NAND Flash prices is propelling an increase in 16 TB deployments, the contribution of AI servers to this growth remains relatively limited
Smartphones: The annual production growth rate for smartphones in 2024 is estimated to be a modest 22%, largely impacted by a global economic downturn TrendForce cites this as the primary reason for the sluggish growth in demand volume Thanks to multiple consecutive quarters of declining memory prices, brands are increasingly focusing on hardware competition Consequently, the average DRAM memory capacity in smartphones is projected to rise by approximately 143% in 2023 Given that the ASP of mobile DRAM is expected to remain at a relatively low point in 2024, this trend is likely to persist, potentially leading to an additional 79% growth in average device memory capacity for the year
UFS & eMMC: Factors such as growing demand for image storage and increased 5G penetration are expected to drive up the average storage capacity in smartphones However, as suppliers scale back production to set the stage for potential price hikes, smartphone OEMs are projected to exercise greater caution in cost management in 2024, potentially leading to fewer mid-to-low-end models offering over 1TB of storage On a related note, the absence of enthusiasm for QLC products among smartphone OEMs likely presents an obstacle for suppliers aiming to nudge consumers toward capacity upgrades via lower-cost options With smartphone storage baselines continually rising and given Apple's current lack of plans to introduce iPhone models exceeding 1TB of storage, TrendForce anticipates that the annual growth rate for average smartphone storage capacity will hover around 13% in 2024
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/07/05
TrendForce reports that continued production cuts by DRAM suppliers have led to a gradual quarterly decrease in overall DRAM supply Seasonal demand, on the other hand, is helping to mitigate inventory pressure on suppliers TrendForce projects that the third quarter will see the ASP for DRAM converging towards a 0~5% decline Despite suppliers’ concerted efforts, inventory levels persistently remain high, keeping prices low While production cutbacks may help to curtail quarterly price declines, a tangible recovery in prices may not be seen until 2024
PC DRAM: The benefits of consolidated production cuts on DDR4 by the top three suppliers are expected to become evident in the third quarter Furthermore, inventory pressure on suppliers has been partially alleviated due to aggressive purchasing by several OEMs at low prices during 2Q23 Evaluating average price trends for PC DRAM products in 3Q23 reveals that DDR4 will continue to remain in a state of persistent oversupply, leading to an expected quarterly price drop of 3~8% DDR5 prices—influenced by suppliers’ efforts to maintain prices and unmet buyer demand—are projected to see a 0–5% quarterly decline The overall ASP of PC DRAM is projected to experience a QoQ decline of 0~5% in the third quarter
Server DRAM: Buyer inventories remain high and the transition to new platforms has fallen short of expectations Despite the recent investment focus by CSPs on AI server equipment, which is accelerating the procurement of high-capacity server DRAM such as DDR5 128G and HBM, there hasn’t been a significant reduction in server DRAM inventories The price decline for DDR4 and DDR5 stands at approximately 3~8% and 0~5% respectively, signaling a persistently weak pricing trend for server DRAM products Consequently, average server DRAM prices are forecasted to decline by about 0~5% in 3Q23
Mobile DRAM: Even though smartphone demand was weak in 1H23, the traditional peak season and concurrent production cuts by suppliers are expected to drive up demand for mobile DRAM However, these measures offer limited assistance in being able to substantially reduce suppliers’ inventory levels Successive price declines over past quarters have now reached baseline prices for suppliers, prompting Korean firms to lead a hike in mobile DRAM prices But due to the prevailing oversupply, a standoff has ensued between buyers and sellers The ASP of mobile DRAM is predicted to fall by 0~5% in 3Q23, although sporadic price increases may occur due to strategic moves made by suppliers
Graphics DRAM: The NVIDIA RTX 40 series, along with the traditional peak season, is anticipated to stimulate a significant upswing in demand for graphics DRAM—particularly GDDR6 16Gb—during the third quarter However, given that buyers accumulated stock ahead of time in the second quarter and now hold substantial inventory, suppliers may find themselves unable to increase prices in a market that remains in a state of oversupply Therefore, the market price of mainstream GDDR6 16Gb is projected to see a quarterly drop of 0~5% in the third quarter, mirroring an approximate 0~5% decline in ASP for graphics DRAM
Consumer DRAM: The market is currently witnessing a sluggish transactional pace SK hynix plans to expand the supply of DDR3 and DDR4 4Gb at its Wuxi fab, gradually increasing production capacity Simultaneously, Winbond has transitioned into the mass production stage, with an increase in wafer input expected each quarter As a result, the consumer DRAM market continues to grapple with oversupply Nevertheless, suppliers are progressively cutting back production, the benefits which are expected to materialize in the third quarter Given the substantial operating losses incurred by these suppliers, these factors should curtail the decline in ASP of consumer DRAM to 0~5% in 3Q23
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/06/07
The ongoing global economic downturn continues to impact consumer confidence in the market TrendForce reports that the global production volume of smartphones in 1Q23 was only 250 million units—marking a 195% YoY decrease This represents not only the greatest annual decrease but also a historic low in quarterly production since 2014
Samsung observed a slight surge in Q1 production thanks to the launch of its Galaxy S23 series, reaching 615 million units—a 55% QoQ rise However, TrendForce predicts a nearly 10% drop in Q2 production due to weakening demand for new models Apple faced a substantial 275% QoQ drop in smartphone production in Q1, delivering a total of 533 million units The new iPhone 14 series accounted for approximately 78% of this figure, an improvement from the same period last year Nonetheless, as the company navigates the transition period between model launches, a projected decrease of 20% is expected in Q2
In light of unsatisfactory market conditions and necessary inventory adjustments, brands such as Oppo (which includes Oppo, Realme, and OnePlus) made strategic moves to reduce production in Q1 to 268 million units, a 17% QoQ decrease However, TrendForce forecasts a more than 30% rise in Q2 production, attributed to successful inventory management and a moderate demand resurgence in Southeast Asia and other regions It’s worth mentioning that, in addition to continuously strengthening its market share of high-end models in China, Oppo has achieved notable sales success in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America In fact, its overseas market accounts for nearly 60% of its total sales
In the first quarter, Xiaomi (which includes Xiaomi, Redmi, POCO) saw its production volume dip to 265 million units—a 274% quarterly decrease This decline can largely be attributed to a global dip in consumer confidence and an overstocked inventory of finished products at Xiaomi, leading to restrained production plans Due to ongoing inventory adjustments set for the second quarter, quarterly production growth is projected to be capped, with a modest estimated increase of around 20% Concurrently, Vivo (including Vivo, iQoo) reported a production volume of 20 million units for the first quarter—a 142% quarterly decrease While China continues to be the primary market for Vivo's sales, Q2 demand continues to remain stagnant in the Chinese market, following the reopening of its borders As a result, the quarterly production volume is anticipated to show a modest increase of around 10%
The continuous economic slump has led to increased activity in the used phone and repair markets, which could potentially hinder Q2 smartphone production growth Notwithstanding, Q2 production is forecasted to reach 260 million units, demonstrating a QoQ increase of around 5% However, due to the unfavorable economic environment, TrendForce forecasts that smartphone production will still fall by 10% when compared to the same period last year
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
