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Press Releases
Global Demand for PV Modules Temporarily Decreases in 3Q19, but Annual Demand May Still Go Above 120GW, Says TrendForce

2019/07/17

Energy

Ever since China's 531 New Policy came into effect back in 2018, Chinese manufacturers impacted by the policy actively sought expansion overseas in order to lessen the risks from the policy Adding that the distribution of global markets is becoming more diverse and dispersed, we see global demand for PV modules being pushed up as a result EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, gives the following outlook for 2H19: Clients will slightly reduce pull-ins for 3Q, but this is expected to be a temporary state of rest for the market, which may still see demand for the whole 2019 year rise above 120GW Chinese Module Exports to Double amid China's 531 New Policy and the Removal of European MIP Trade Barriers According to EnergyTrend's statistics, Chinese exports to overseas regions from January to May, 2019, came to a total of 285GW, nearly doubling YoY from a 1468GW (before China's 531 New Policy; a 926% growth) for last year After the New Policy came into effect, the exports from June to December in 2018 totaled 263GW Judging from regional markets, Europe has been the spotlight region for this period Europe officially removed trade barriers against Chinese suppliers in September 3, 2018, allowing modules made in China to compete in free European markets, unhampered by any trade barriers In 2H18 post-June and from January to May in 2019, Chinese module exports to European regions grew nearly every month, demonstrating that the removal of European Minimum Import Price (MIP) trade barriers opened up a new export channel for Chinese suppliers impacted by China's 531 New Policy Global Market Becomes More Dispersed, With a Burgeoning European Market Likely Overall, module demand for 2019 is expected to reach 1255GW, a 16% growth over 1082GW in 2018 The growth trend is expected to persist into 2020 EnergyTrend predicts that global demand will become more and more dispersed in 2019, with GW-scale markets to increase from 16 in 2018 to 21 in 2019, mainly because markets are popping up all over the world Aside from the five major markets, traditionally China, the US, India, Japan and Australia, there has been signs of revival in some European markets, old and new alike The revival stemmed from the Paris Agreement, in which members of the EU continued to increase the proportion of renewable energy in an attempt to reduce carbon emissions This brought module demand to rise from 119GW in 2018 to 218GW in 2019 The demand is expected to keep growing to 24GW in 2020, registering a growth of over 10% Apart from European regions, South America, the Middle East, Africa and other emerging regions each have at least 2-3 countries with GW-scale markets In fact, the Paris Agreement consists of Nationally Determined Contributions to renewable energy development by each member of the United Nations (UN) Thus besides the governmental subsidies and support each country provides, the annually dropping costs of PV installations of nowadays is turning PV into a solution that emerging countries may utilize to solve energy shortages and reduce their contribution towards global warming

Press Releases
Consolidation and Capacity Cut in Solar Industry Expected Due to Gradual Phase-Out of Subsidies Worldwide, Says TrendForce

2018/10/09

Energy

EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, reports that some countries are planning or have started phasing out their solar subsidy programs as the global solar photovoltaic (PV) industry and market show stability in their development During 2013-2017, the average annual growth rate of total PV demand was above 20% However, this strong growth scenario will unlikely to happen in the future As the market enters a stagnant phase, manufacturers across the PV supply chain have to be more cautious when planning capacity expansion so that they do not risk incurring losses In the latest Gold Member Solar Report by EnergyTrend (3Q18), the grid-connected PV generation capacity worldwide is estimated to increase by around 95GW in 2018 However, the actual PV demand for the entire 2018 is estimated to reach just 86GW During 2017, numerous developers of PV power plants in China had to move their installation target dates forward At the same time, the US solar companies also stocked up in advance due to their government’s investigation on PV imports under Section 201 of the 1974 Trade Act Consequently, a part of demand originally reserved for 2018 had been spent in 2017 The global production capacity for PV cells is estimated to increase to nearly 150GW in 2018 The global production capacity for PV modules is also estimated to increase to about the same amount in 2018 On the whole, the oversupply problem has become more acute Additionally, there have been geographical shifts in the global supply and demand India officially imposed its 25% safeguard duty on PV cells in 3Q18, just as the EU lifted the minimum import price and the anti-dumping and countervailing duty on Chinese PV imports As a result, China-made PV modules are again flowing into regional markets that they were previously barred from Lions Shih, research manager of EnergyTrend, expects consolidation to occur among product manufacturers and among power plant developers Smaller solar companies will face serious challenges as they are being squeezed out of the market by larger and growing competitors In the case of Taiwan’s solar industry, three domestic solar enterprises – Gintech, Neo Solar Power, and Solartech – have merged in order to increase in scale and create vertical integration Several PV manufacturers in Taiwan have also downsized their workforces and cut their production capacity These are the necessary steps that have to be taken because of the market situation Manufacturers in China, too, are expected to adopt similar measures, including merger deals, capacity reduction, and even factory closure Shih points out that demand drives growth and advances of the solar industry as a whole since it influences the mood of the market and price trends Demand growth, however, continues to be mainly driven by government policies Going forward, manufacturers across the supply chain will assess trajectories of prices based on various country-specific (or region-specific) indicators The rates of a country’s feed-in tariff scheme and electricity prices set under tenders for PV power plants, for example, are important policy-related indicators Another significant indicator is the grid parity targets that are being seriously discussed within the industry during the recent period Quarterly observations of module prices in China during 2018 find that prices of conventional mono-Si products and conventional multi-Si products dropped by 198% and 255% on average, respectively, from 1Q18 to 3Q18 If solar PV generation is to come very close to grid parity in China at the start of 3Q19, then prices of conventional mono-Si and conventional multi-Si modules will have to drop by another 28% and 98%, respectively, during the nine-month period from the start of 4Q18 to the end of 2Q19 To the meet expectation that the price PV electricity has to reach the grid parity level, manufacturers in different sections of the supply chain will be under pressure to keep pushing down their costs

Press Releases
Bid Winners of China’s Top Runner Program (3rd phase) Have Been Announced, Mono-Si Products Account for More than 60%, Says TrendForce

2018/05/24

Energy

The bidding for China’s 2017 Application Top Runner Program (3rd phase) has come to an end According to the analysis of EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, mono-Si products take considerable share in all the projects, while the share of bifacial products also exceeds 50% The bid winning projects are expected to lead the technological development of solar PV industry and to drive the market demand “Mono-Si PERC accounted for the majority (67%) of all the bid winning projects,” says Lions Shih, EnergyTrend’s analyst, “including conventional mono-Si PERC, bifacial mono-Si PERC, and mono-Si PERC MWT” Other projects mostly use multi-Si P-PERC and bifacial N-PERT For P-type products, black silicon and PERC technologies are applied to improve the performances Base on specifications of cells and modules, EnergyTrend further calculates the possible cell efficiency and molding module power output The results show that it is not a problem for conventional products to meet the technical requirements, but there are more uncertainties for bifacial modules This is because purchase choices are made mainly based on the module efficiency on the front side, but there is no effective calculation of efficiency on the backside of modules For power plant operators, they will have relatively lower levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) if the modules have higher efficiency, which will allow them to obtain higher subsidy of feed-in tariff (FiT) Considering the situation of bidding this time and the development of advanced cell technology in 2018, mono-Si PERC will still be the most popular choice for future products, while development of bifacial modules is expected to accelerate as the backside can generate extra power On the other hand, N-type cell and other new-generation cell products will see increasing market share with the expansion of production and rising cell efficiency in the industry On the demand side for the products mentioned above, the demand for mono-Si products is strong in May The prices for mono-Si module remain stable as the supply and demand achieve a balance In comparison, multi-Si products have seen weak demand due to the lower performance-price ratio than mono-Si ones For the module makers, the processing costs for mono-Si and multi-Si modules are generally the same, but the power output of mono-Si modules can gain 10W more than multi-Si ones, making mono-Si ones more favored by customers Based on the current development trend of mono-Si and multi-Si modules, the market situation will not change much until June 30th, unless there are new incentives to bring up the demand for multi-Si modules

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