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2022/05/18
According to TrendForce investigations, total DRAM revenue in 1Q22 decreased by 40% QoQ, reaching US$2403 billion The primary reason for this drop stems from market inflation, weakening demand, and the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war at the end of February affecting the performance of terminal consumption At the same time, client-end inventory levels continue to rise, so their primary goal has become digesting inventory Due to sluggish overall sales momentum, the prices of various DRAM products fell, resulting in overall DRAM revenue in 1Q22 succumbing to decline
According to TrendForce, thanks to favorable demand in the PC and automotive market, the revenue of Micron, one of the three major DRAM manufacturers, rose slightly by 24% But Samsung and SK Hynix revenue fell by 11% and 118% respectively In total, these two South Korean manufacturers account for a market share of 708%, remaining firmly in the top two Affected by falling contract pricing, the operating profit ratios of these three companies were revised downward, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron dropping to 48%, 39%, and 401% respectively Looking forward to subsequent developments, as DRAM continues to move to advanced processes, cost is expected to be further optimized If negative market factors no longer accumulate, profits for these companies are expected to improve further
In terms of production capacity planning, Samsung's 2022 goal remains focused on capacity expansion DRAM wafer starts at its new P3L fab is expected in mid-2023 at the earliest and, in terms of products, the company will continue pushing towards DDR5 In the second half of this year, the DDR5 proportion of production dedicated to PCs and Servers is expected to increase SK Hynix's M16 fab in Korea and Wuxi fab in China have also exhibited a slight increase in wafer starts However, since the migration of M10 to logic products caused a drop in DRAM wafer starts, total wafer starts only increased slightly In terms of technology, SK Hynix has already allocated a small amount wafer starts in the 1alpha nm process and expects to achieve a certain economy of scale by the end of the year Micron has no expansion in overall wafer starts this year, and capacity contribution from its A3 fab in Taiwan will likely fall in 2024 at the earliest Micron also introduced the 1alpha nm process in the second half of 2021 and wafer starts for the 1beta nm process is possible in the first half of 2023, the fastest progress among the big three DRAM manufacturers
In terms of Taiwanese manufacturers, Nanya is still focusing on the production of Consumer DRAM but, with PC DRAM prices on the decline, overall revenue decreased by 74% Mass production is expected for the 1Anm process by the end of the year but expansion of overall scale will depend on the completion of the company’s new Fab5A in 2025 PSMC’s revenue calculation primarily references standard DRAM products produced in-house and does not include its DRAM foundry business Revenue in 1Q22 fell by approximately 23%, mainly due to a decrease in the demand for PSMC's own products from major clients However, if foundry revenue is included, revenue will grow by 3%, bucking trends Winbond's revenue declined slightly by 46%, due to its product mix Part of its production capacity was migrated to NOR Flash memory, resulting in a recent decrease in DRAM wafer starts However, since equipment installation will begin at the company’s Kaohsiung Lujhu fab this year, new production capacity is expected to become available gradually in the second half of this year
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/03/17
A powerful magnitude 73 earthquake occurred off the coast of Fukushima, Japan on the evening of March 16th (CST) Most of northeastern Japan is a production center for global upstream semiconductor raw materials According to TrendForce investigations, in the main quake zone, only Kioxia’s K1 Fab (located in Kitakami) will face the possibility of a further downgrade to 1Q22 production Some of the remaining memory or semiconductor companies in the region are conducting machine inspections but the overall impact has been muted
In terms of memory, the intensity of the earthquake at Kioxia’s K1 Fab reached magnitude 5 When the earthquake occurred, wafer input was partially damaged At present, K1 Fab has been shut down for inspection The 1Q22 production capacity of the K1 Fab had been downgraded following the recent contamination incident and accounts for approximately 8% of Kioxia's 2022 production capacity Operating under a cloud of possible aftershocks, Kioxia's capacity utilization rate may be slow to recover in the next week, causing further downward revision of K1 Fab’s 1Q22 production The remaining Kioxia factories are unaffected, as is Micron's Hiroshima plant
Looking at the market spot price, pricing has moved up since February due to the contamination of Kioxia’s raw materials The Russian-Ukrainian war did not trigger significant upward or downward movements in spot price After last night’s Fukushima earthquake, pricing remains stable TrendForce asserts, overall spot demand remains weak and prices are not prone to drastic changes
In terms of raw wafers, SUMCO's Yonezawa Plant in Yamagata and Shin-Etsu's Shirakawa Plant in Fukushima are both within the affected area, experiencing an earthquake intensity of magnitude 5 Due to the extremely high stability required in the crystal growth process, the industry has not yet announced the impact of the quake TrendForce specifies, in addition to shutdown inspections, damage to machines and silicon wafer input is inevitable However, in addition to redistributing production plans, buildings were reinforced after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan, so overall damage may be minor
In terms of foundries, there are two 12-inch wafer fabs and two 8-inch wafer fabs in Japan, including UMC Fab12M (12-inch), Tower Uozu (12-inch), Tonami (8-inch), Arai (8 inches), located in Mie, Toyama, and Niigata prefectures, respectively, and separately experiencing quake magnitudes from 1 to 3 At present, these fabs are operating normally and any impact of the quake on the plants are largely insignificant However, IDM manufacturer Renesas’ Naka plant is within the magnitude 5 zone and they have also shut down and reduced production to confirm the impact of the quake
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2021/09/01
Annual shipment of notebook computers and desktop PCs underwent a massive increase in 2020 thanks to the proliferation of the stay-at-home economy brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic last year, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations In particular, notebook shipment increased by a staggering 26% YoY, thereby generating a corresponding demand for DRAM chips Although the movement of DRAM prices remained stable in 2020, there was a palpable growth in actual DRAM bit demand Hence, global DRAM module revenue increased by about 5% YoY to US$169 billion for 2020
Looking back at the price trend of DRAM modules for 2020, TrendForce indicates that the market adopted a relative conservative outlook going forward in view of the ongoing pandemic In turn, various end-products differed wildly in their respective market performances as well For instance, while demand for notebooks remained strong, smartphone demand was relatively bearish Server shipment, on the other hand, was at the same time consistent yet indicative of uncertainties, to some degree In light of the varying performances in the end-markets, PC DRAM prices did not undergo drastic fluctuations throughout the year, and DRAM module suppliers posted earnings performances that were a direct result of their sales strategies, with certain suppliers, including Kimtigo and ADATA, able to raise their revenues by a massive margin
As Kingston once again took pole position, ADATA recaptured the second spot on the top 10 list
Whereas the top five suppliers accounted for nearly 90% of the DRAM module market in terms of sales revenue in 2020, the top 10 suppliers accounted for nearly 95% of the market In particular, Kingston alone possessed a nearly 80% market share, which represented a minor drop compared to 2019 yet was sufficient for the company to secure the leadership position once again Kingston turned to a relatively conservative sales strategy last year in response to uncertainties in the pandemic-influenced market and grew its revenue by about 2% YoY for 2020
As PC DRAM products occupied a relatively large share of ADATA’s products, the rising popularity of WFH and distance learning, along with ADATA’s foray into the gaming segment, propelled the Taiwanese company’s revenue from DRAM module sales to a 47% YoY growth in 2020 On the other hand, Shenzhen-based Kimtigo continued to cultivate its presence in the Chinese market and saw remarkable returns in both commercial and gaming segments Not only did Kimtigo’s revenue from its DRAM module business experience a 50% YoY growth, the highest among the top 10 suppliers last year, but its ranking also leapfrogged from sixth place in 2019 to fourth place in 2020
Major Chinese DRAM module supplier Ramaxel fell to the third spot on the top 10 list last year, although it still recorded an 11% YoY revenue growth thanks to an increase in its annual shipment Conversely, Smart Modular Technologies, which was ranked third in 2019, fell to sixth place in 2020 This decline can be attributed to the fact that Smart primarily sells its products in the US and South American countries such as Brazil – regions which were most heavily affected by the pandemic As physical storefronts in these regions closed due to local health and safety measures, Smart’s revenue also suffered a 7% YoY decline Shenzhen-based POWEV posted a 10% YoY increase in its revenue, though it still dropped to fifth place because its competitors registered higher growths
US-based Patriot Memory joined the top 10 list for the first time ever while Team Group maintained its seventh-place ranking
Team Group performed exceptionally well in spite of the ongoing pandemic by registering a 14% YoY revenue growth This growth took place on the backs of its continued expansion in the gaming segment and increased promotional efforts The company’s sales volume and product ASP both experienced considerable growths as a result Along with achieving excellent online sales performances in recent years, Team Group maintained its seventh place among the top 10 Patriot Memory, a US-based supplier which likewise specializes in the gaming segment, entered the rankings of the top 10 DRAM module suppliers for the first time and immediately took eighth place The company will likely put up similarly impressive growths going forward
Ninth-ranked Apacer and tenth-ranked Innodisk focused on the niche industrial automation, automotive, and AIoT markets
Taking the ninth place in 2020, Apacer was able to score a growth of about 10% YoY in its revenue from DRAM modules The company began gradually shifting its focus to the industrial automation, medical, and automotive segments in order to benefit from supplying specialty products with high gross profits With PC DRAM products now accounting for less than half of Apacer’s offerings, the company has also been expanding into the gaming market, which is expected to bolster the company’s operations going forward
Tenth-ranked Innodisk increased its revenue from DRAM modules by nearly 10% in 2020 and maintained a stable profit growth that demonstrated its longstanding competency in the relatively stable industrial automation market with products that have relatively high ASPs Innodisk has been developing not only medical and AIoT products in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but also DDR5 DRAM products Taken together, these efforts represents the company’s commitment to leveraging its existing R&D abilities for emerging commercial opportunities
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2015/05/11
The global DRAM revenue fell by 75% QoQ in 1Q15, with revenue totaling $12 billion, according to DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce The decline in the industry’s revenue is the result of the 11% quarterly decrease of the average DRAM contract price and the seasonality effects in the notebook and smartphone markets
Ken Kuo, assistant vice president of DRAMeXchange, said though DRAM makers experienced seasonal revenue decline in Q1, their margins did not shrink significantly as they made advances in process technology migration This quarter’s margins were therefore roughly the same as its previous quarter’s However, the effects of weak demand will have on DRAM price trend raises some concerns How well the DRAM makers have done on technology migration and adjusting product mixes will be critical for their successful performances this year DRAMeXchange forecasts the DRAM industry will be worth US$512 billion in 2015, an increase of nearly 12% YoY
Looking at the Q1 market shares of DRAM brands, Samsung and SK Hynix respectively took 43% and 27% of the market, giving the combined Korean suppliers over 70% of the global DRAM market The market share of the US-based DRAM maker Micron was 225%, a slight decline compared with the previous quarter These figures are unlikely to change much under the current oligopoly structure unless there are new market entrants (for example, China manages to create new rivals with its aggressive semiconductor policy)
As for manufacturing technology, Samsung remains the industry leader as its 20nm yield is stable and expected to account for nearly 60% of the supplier’s total output by the end of the year SK Hynix’s performance is boosted by its 25nm process The cost reduction that came with the technology migration offset the effects of declining prices, thus giving SK Hynix a healthy profit for this quarter Micron’s Q1 revenue suffered a big 13% quarterly drop Micron’s migration to the 20nm process has not progressed as expected, and a significant portion of the DRAM maker’s output still comes from the 30nm process Micron will need to speed up the transition to the 20nm process as to prevent declining market prices from affecting its profits any further, according to Kuo
With regard to Taiwan-based memory suppliers, Nanya is making a rapid migration from the conventional 30nm process to the 30nm-shrink process, which is expected to account for 50% of the total production by the end of the year Nanya’s revenue will stabilize as the manufacturing costs are reduced On the migration to 20nm, Nanya has scheduled next year for mass production Affected by weak commodity DRAM prices, Powerchip’s Q1 revenue fell by 79% QoQ However, Powerchip has already begun trial production on the 25nm process, and mass production will begin at the end of the year at the earliest Winbond has no commodity DRAM output, focusing instead on specialty and mobile DRAM With capacity fully loaded at 44K wafers per month, Winbond’s Q1 revenue only decreased by 13% QoQ
2014/12/05
2014 has been a fruitful year for the DRAM industry Tier-one manufacturers, benefiting from the global smartphone boom, have all stepped up mobile memory production According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, mobile memory will account for 36 percent of overall DRAM production this year and is very likely to surpass 40 percent of production in 2015
“Because of high demand for mobile memory, DRAM manufacturers have somewhat reduced standard memory production, keeping module prices high,” said Ken Kuo, Assistant Vice President at DRAMeXchange This year, the 4GB module has been selling for about US$32 while the average margin for standard memory has been above 40 percent, Kuo said, adding: “All DRAM manufacturers are staying profitable The increasingly oligopolistic nature of the market and changes in market demand will stable the development of the industry in 2015”
The 5 key trends to follow in the DRAM industry in 2015:
(1) Overall DRAM industry revenue will grow 16 percent year-on-year Growth will be slower than in 2014 while manufacturers will remain very profit oriented
The DRAM industry has become oligopolistic and the remaining top 3 DRAM makers will all focus on sustaining profits first and carefully adjusting production and product types Resilient global demand for smartphones will compel manufacturers to prioritize the production of mobile memory, squeezing standard memory production and pushing up standard memory prices “Commodity memory has become a cash cow for DRAM manufacturers,” Kuo said DRAMeXchange forecasts that the total revenue of the DRAM industry in 2015 will reach US$541 billion while annual growth will be 16 percent “2015 should be a year of stable growth and profitability for the DRAM industry,” Kuo added
(2) Samsung and SK Hynix both have new plants in place and will adjust production capacity according to market demand
Samsung and SK Hynix both announced plans to build new plants in 2014 amid rumors of increasing competition between the two DRAM giants In fact, while Samsung was expanding Line17, its Line16 was gradually returning production capacity from DRAM to NAND Flash at the same time Meanwhile, SK Hynix planned to use its M14 for small-scale production in the fourth quarter of 2015, while larger-scale production is slated for 2016 Overall, market demand for DRAM is still growing and production facilities are ready As a result, as long as wafer production goes as planned and technology processes evolve, DRAM manufacturers will be able to maintain current levels of profitability, despite prices falling on a quarterly basis
(3) Mobile memory becomes the global mainstream standard and LPDDR4 will be seen in vendors’ flagship smartphone models next year
In 2014, as smartphones became more affordable and packed with features, smartphone shipments increased and consumers in emerging markets began to regularly upgrade their handsets “As the global smartphone market grows, mobile memory is occupying an increasingly large share of the memory market: 40 percent compared to the 27 percent that standard memory has,” Kuo said “Mobile memory is becoming a mainstream DRAM product” At the same time, from the standpoint of mobile memory, the mainstream standard will still be LPDDR3, which accounts for more than 60 percent of production in 2015, Kuo said, adding: LPDDR4 will be seen in flagship smartphones in 2015 It is superior to LPDDR3 in terms of power saving and speed It is expected to have a 15 percent market share out of total Mobile DRAM capacity in third quarter of 2015
(4) DRAM players to compete on 20nm migration; increasing capital expenditure a barrier
Samsung and SK Hynix’s 25nm process technologies became mature in the second half of 2014 Regardless of the yield rate or wafer volume, both of the South Korean manufacturers’ chips became mainstream in the DRAM industry Regarding 20nm process technology, Samsung has moved to the testing stage and SK Hynix’s product is expected to enter the market in the second quarter of 2015 By comparison, Micron only plans to use the 20nm process technology standard in memory storage produced by Inotera Micron’s improvement rate is lower than that of the two large South Korean companies as its entry into the sector was later, but is still targeting 80K wafer start capacity by the end of 2015 Since more equipment is necessary for the 20nm production process, requiring greater capital expenditure, the rate at which the 20nm migration takes place is expected to slow
(5) DDR4 technology will enter the server field first and could surpass 50 percent market share by the end of 2015
Under Intel’s leadership, DRAM manufacturers cooperated to make DDR4 technology enter the server field first “Server DRAM needs to be fast and stable, with low voltage,” Kuo said “In accordance with JEDEC regulations, DDR4 electricity is only 12V and the speed is expected to reach 3200 Mhz Meanwhile, the price gap between DDR4 and server-based DDR3 is shrinking DRAMeXchange projects that DDR4 memory will officially become mainstream in the server market as early as the end of 2015
