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Keyword：Jeff Yang，
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2019/05/27
WitsView , a division of TrendForce , has it in its latest report that shipments of TV brands worldwide came to 4987 million units for 1Q19, a QoQ slide of 246% and a YoY bump of 05% One may discover from the brand shipment rankings that first and second place are still the domain of Korean brands, while China brands fill up third to sixth, evidently proving themselves a force to be reckoned with in their ambitions to aggressively raise market share by leveraging their cost advantage
“Entering the second quarter, small-sized TV panel prices struggle to make a comeback in May due to the lack of improvement in end demand, with TV brand inventory strategies predicted to turn conservative in 2Q and overall shipments possibly to exhibit a 1~15 % QoQ decline,” says TrendForce Research Manager Jeff Yang Besides observing whether China's 618 sales event may successfully move consumers to spend their money, it is also worth paying attention to the Chinese brands keen on expanding territory in the US market, such as TCL and Hisense These companies will be heavily hit by the US-China trade dispute, should the wildfire spread to TV products
For TCL, its maximum Mexican production capacity can barely meet half of North America's demand for TCL's TVs Faced with the US's 25% tariff imposed on China, they are forced to ramp up Mexican capacity This also means that the age-old strategy of Chinese brands to drive sales through price leveraging will be met with resistance
Korean Brands Focus Development on High-End Products, with TCL Closely Following LGE in Shipments
Pressured by creeping China brands and diminishing profits in the TV industry, the two Korean brands are each hoping to secure a competitive edge and raise profitability with the help of high-end products Samsung is resorting to raising the specs of its 8K+QLED TVs , while LGE is focusing on expanding its OLED TV markets A profit-oriented strategy, however, will also impact shipments Although Samsung held steady at first place with 942 million in shipments in 1Q, its QoQ and YoY declines came to 212% and 58%, respectively LGE's 1Q shipments also fell by 226% QoQ and 71% YoY
TCL already stood steady at third place in annual shipments for 2018, with 1Q shipments having reached 569 million units in the first quarter this year, narrowing its distance with LGE to under 1 million units TCL has already come in possession of CSOT's panel resources, and has even announced plans to make a splash with investments into TV module production in India, demonstrating its ambitions to expand its worldwide market
Hisense and Skyworth Raise Sales in Targeting Markets Overseas, While Xiaomi Finds its Way to No 5
China's traditional TV brands, Hisense and Skyworth, reached 303 million and 235 million in shipments 1Q, standing at fourth and sixth place, respectively After last year, which saw Hisense open sales of OLED TVs in Australia, Hisense will be moving into China OLED TV territory this year Skyworth, on the other hand, has been and still is LGD OLED's long-term strategic partner In stalling-demand China, OLED TVs have become important products of Hisense's and Skyworth's in their efforts to raise brand strength As for sales growth, Hisense and Skyworth have placed their hopes on markets overseas, aiming to raise the proportion of sales overseas by leveraging their low-cost advantage
Xiaomi's 1Q shipments came to 285 million units, reaching 939% in YoY growth and securing fifth place As traditional China TV brands lower costs by deepening supply chain integration, Xiaomi took a different approach, adopting a business model that focuses solely on product development, sales channels and Xiaomi's fan base, while production is outsourced to ODMs in order to alleviate operational and production costs Although Xiaomi has successfully developed a new business model by utilizing the IoT ecosystem, TCL was Xiaomi's main ODM last year, while this year sees Xiaomi strengthening its collaboration with another ODM: BOEVT From this, it is clear that cost management along the panel supply chain still forms the key to success for TV brands
2019/02/26
According to the latest investigation by WitsView , a division of TrendForce , prices have recently dropped below cash costs for some TV panel sizes; for example, 32-inch TV panel quotes have dropped below US$40 As prices are expected to near rock bottom and drop no further, demand of TV brands shall see a gradual return, causing small and medium-sized TV panel prices to rebound in March
WitsView Research Manager, Jeff Yang, points out that TV brands adopted conservative procurement strategies in 4Q18 and focused on controlling year-end inventory levels Diving demands caused TV panel prices to slide at speed, and accelerated the impairment of financial conditions for panel manufacturers, who, faced with the imbalance between supply and demand, adjusted their product portfolios and utilized proactive quoting strategies as a first remedy After relieving inventory pressures, panel manufacturers have been taking a harder stance on price negotiations for products 50-inches and under to improve profits
Clear Rebound Trend for Small and Mid-Size TV Panel Prices
32-inch panel prices have fallen the most since the fourth quarter last year compared to other sizes As panel manufacturers reduced 32-inch panel production on the left and cleared out stocks via special offers on the right, the overall supply-demand imbalance has since improved Medium-size panels ranging from 40 to 43 inches, on the other hand, were influenced by SDC's future halting of 40-inch product production in the second quarter, which shifted demands and caused orders for Innolux's 395-inch and mainstream 43 -inch panels to exceed expectations Furthermore, Gen 86 production lines have entered the market in recent years, allowing the economy-cutting 50-inch panel to take center stage But CEC-Panda, HKC, CHOT and other second-tier panel manufacturers in China still need to improve their 50-inch customer bases and yield rates,and their supplies are thus expected to remain tight in the short term
TV Panel Price Trends Split for the First Time in a Long Time
Contrary to the bounce signalled in the medium and small size panel prices, the large size panel market exhibits a completely different phenomenon The mainline sizes from Gen 85 production lines consist of 32-inch, 49-inch and 55-inch sizes, but due to the strategic reductions of 32-inch production by panel manufacturers, and 49-inch panels being pushed out of competition by the large increase in demand for 50-inch panels, 55-inch panels have been the main avenue for production capacity consumption, increasing endlessly in supply Adding the fact that Gen 105 lines of BOE and China Star Optoelectronics Technology (CSOT) are joining the ranks of 65-inch and 75-inch suppliers, large size panels are feared to remain stuck in an oversupply situation—the larger the size, the greater the price pressure
Looking at past trends, the TV panel industry has rarely exhibited divergences in panel prices WitsView points out that, though small size panel prices are expected to rise, the continual fall of large panel prices may limit the strength of the bounce Another possible scenario : if the bounce strength goes overboard, it may raise the bar for TV brand costs, affecting panel purchasing power All these are definitely worth paying attention to in the coming future
2019/01/30
According to the latest report of WitsView, a division of TrendForce, global shipments of branded TV sets for 2018 totaled 219 million units, an increase of 41% compared with prior year, indicating a recovery from weak TV demand in 2017 Looking ahead to 2019, global branded TV shipments are expected to reach 223 million units, an increase of 16%
“The year 2018 has witnessed replacement demand in emerging markets such as Latin America driven by the World Cup,” says Jeff Yang, research manager of WitsView The steady economy situation in North America was also favorable for the recovery of global TV demand TV brands were willing to offer promotions as well, considering the downward trends in overall TV panel prices last year
The supply of large-size panel will increase greatly in 2019 with new production capacity CSOT’s Gen 11 fab, HKC’s Gen 86 fab, and Sharp’s Gen 105 fab in Guangzhou are expected to enter the market at the beginning, middle, and end of the year respectively Decreasing panel prices will bring unavoidable pressure on the suppliers, but will also make large-size TVs cheaper In the future, the TV industry will bound to seek constant improvements in specs to create brand value and differentiate their products
TV brands accelerate their layout for large-size TVs
For TV brands, there is little room for product differentiation for TV smaller than 32 inches, because most of them are positioned as entry-level products, and the costs of panels are relatively transparent due to long-term oversupply of panels under 32 inches Therefore, TV brands have been decreasing the portion of 32-inch TVs or smaller ones in their product mixes, and the percentage is expected to be less than 30% in 2019
On the other hand, the portion of 55-inch TVs or larger ones is increasing The percentage of 65-inch TVs or above is expected to increase from 88% in 2018 to 117% in 2019 As for the retailing prices of TVs in the North American market last year, 65-inch TVs were priced between $399 and $699, while 75-inch ones were mostly priced above $1,500 With the falling prices of large-size TVs, there is a chance to see ultra-low-priced 75-inch TV below $799 in the peak season promotion during the second half of this year
QLED TVs face more competition from large-size LCD and OLED counterparts
The price decline of large-size panels will drive more TV brands into the large-size TV segment However, in the future, large-size TVs will not necessarily be a guarantee of profits For first-tier brands, the development of large-size TV business will be even more difficult On the other hand, the sales of QLED TVs, which have more price advantages, is no worse than OLED TV The high-end 55/65-inch QLED TVs from Samsung were priced at about US$1,000 to US$1,500 during the year-end promotion, while the prices of 55/65-inch OLED TVs remained above $1,500
However, the prices of OLED panels are expected to decrease in 2H19, because the long-term undersupply of OLED panel would be slightly eased considering LGD’s planned investment in its Guangzhou OLED fab in the second half of this year In addition, there is pressure from low-cost 75-inch LCD TVs For the two reasons, it remains to be seen whether Samsung is able to maintain price advantage of its QLED TV this year
TV brands move toward 8K, HDR, and borderless products for differentiation
The market of 4K TV has matured, with the share of 4K products expected to exceed 50% in the TV market in 2019 As for 8K TV, the content, transmission, hardware, as well as the whole industry chain have not been well developed The prices of 8K panels are still more than twice the prices of 4K ones Therefore, it remains to be seen whether 8K TV can copy the development mode of 4K TV WitsView estimates that 8K TVs would account for only about 02% of the total TV shipments this year
Compared with the upgrade to 8K TV, it is relatively easier to increase the added value of products by differentiating the specs, such as the Mini LED and dual cell design, which can achieve a high dynamic contrast (HDR), and the design of a full-screen without borders These are all the potential specs upgrade that TV brands can consider
2018/11/22
According to the latest report by WitsView, a division of TrendForce, the global shipments of branded LCD TV sets for 2018 are forecast to total 218 million units, an increase of 34% compared with last year The market has been driven by stock-up demands for the World Cup and lower prices of TV sets Since BOE’s Gen 105 fab entered production, the costs of large-size panels have witnessed a significant drop, lowering the prices of TV sets as well Particularly, more attractive retail prices for large-size models may fuel future growth in the TV market
“Looking ahead to 2019, international TV brands will be looking for more growth from advanced TV technologies, including 8K, QLED, and OLED”, says Jeff Yang, research manager of WitsView On the other hand, Chinese TV brands continue to explore overseas markets and to increase the share of large-size TVs in their product mixes In addition, TV brands plan to cut the prices during the Black Friday sales, and may retain the promotion prices for the whole year For the next year, the attractive retail prices may boost the TV demand, despite the lack of global sports events Therefore, global TV shipments are expected to further expand to 221 million units in 2019, a growth of 13% YoY
QLED segment may experience a price war; development of OLED products is still constrained by panel supply
Samsung, a leading player in the QLED TV market, would likely focus more on developing 8K TV in 2019, since OLED TV has shown higher penetration in recent years The cost reduction of LCD panels this year has also lowered the prices of QLED TV, which will enable the vendors to offer more attractive prices in the coming Black Friday sales in North America For instance, Samsung’s 55-inch QLED TV is priced at $999, and a 65-inch QLED TV at $1299 during the sales, indicating Samsung’s intention to retain its share in the QLED market through price cuts
When Samsung provides aggressive prices for QLED models, LGE and Sony retain the premium prices of their OLED line-ups However, the costs of OLED panel remain high due to the tight panel supply from LG Display and hurdles in yield improvements With low-priced LCD TVs rushing into the market, it remains to be seen when OLED models are able to remain in the premium market positioning
Chinese TV brands explore overseas markets faster and offer more large-size models in the domestic market
The TV sales turned out to be short of expectation in this year’s online shopping event in China on November 11th It has been increasingly hard for vendors to take advantages from the potential of the retail e-commerce market In addition, traditional TV brands are faced with less room for growth due to the rise of Xiaomi, so they have been working on exploring overseas markets For example, TCL and Hisense are very active in expanding their shares in overseas markets, offering competitive prices in this year’s Black Friday sales in North America Hisense’s 40-inch TV (non-Internet) is priced at $99, TCL’s 55-inch Internet TV is priced at $349 and 65-inch Internet TV at $398
Chinese TV brands continue to increase the share of large-size TVs in their product mixes As BOE’s Gen 105 fab began to ship products, with additional capacity from CSOT Gen 11 fab next year, the industry will have an abundant supply of large-size panels (65-inch, 75-inch, or above) The market is expected to see higher demand, fueled by a new wave of replacement purchase
8K models have a strategic significance for TV makers, despite its difficult ramp up
In the near term, 8K TV still anticipates difficult ramp up The limited growth is due to the high costs of panel, not fully developed supply chain and lack of content in 8K resolution However, with a strategic significance for manufacturers, the arrival of 8K TV has changed the landscape of the premium TV segment, while expanding the customers’ choices of products beyond only QLED and OLED Overall speaking, the future growth of TV market will lie in large-size TV and QLED/OLED models With more fabs for large-size LCD panels and new capacity of OLED panels coming in, prices of large-size TV will drop faster, while QLED/OLED TV products will be upgraded faster
2018/09/19
WitsView, a division of TrendForce, reports that Foxconn is expected to take the first place in the global shipment ranking of LCD TV ODMs for 2018, for the brand benefitted from the prosperous business of Sharp, a subsidiary of Foxconn, as well as stable orders from Sony and VIZIO TPV slid to the second place, with TCL and BOEVT following the third and fourth
“All the four major TV ODMs have their in-house panel supply networks, enabling them to offer more flexible prices to clients and to secure orders amid the tight supply of panels”, says Jeff Yang, the research manager of WitsView The companies have also made adjustments to their business modes due to the slowdown in the global TV market, allocating increasing capacity to own-branded TVs to boost the shipments
Major TV ODMs put increasing focus on own-branded products to boost the shipments
After a significant shipment increase in 2017, the Sharp-branded TVs of Foxconn are expected to see only marginal growth this year This is because the falling panel prices in 1H18 offset Foxconn’s advantages of in-house panel supply, and Xiaomi is emerging as a key competitor with surging demand for its Mi TV at the same time Together with stable orders from Sony and VIZIO, Foxconn’s global TV shipments for 2018 has a great chance to total 165 million units, outperforming TPV, the previous leader in the TV ODM market
TPV topped the TV ODM ranking by shipments in 2017, but is influenced by the financial issues of some Internet TV brands in China and VIZIO’s transferring orders to other ODMs this year Although TPV has been expanding the shipments of its own-branded Philips and AOC TVs, the increased sales may not offset the decline in its annual global shipments of TV sets Therefore, WitsView anticipates TPV to slide to the second in the ranking, with an estimated TV shipment of 153 million units
The market to see limited TV ODM orders; secured panel resources will be the key to success amid the intensified competition
TCL’s TV shipments for 2018 is expected to total 104 million units, ranking the third, as it benefited from the surging demand for Mi TV in China and Southeast Asia In comparison, BOEVT, whose profits are significantly influenced by the drop in panel prices in the first half of this year, would record a shipment of 95 million units, taking the fourth place On the client side, BOEVT has to give up some of its low-priced TV ODM orders, and focuses on developing major clients like Samsung and LGE
WitsView expects intensified competition in the TV ODM market in the future, as panel makers like HKC and Innolux have been actively integrating downstream TV ODM services, while Chinese companies like KTC and AMTC continue to feature their cost advantages
Overall speaking, the integration of own-branded products to the original ODM business models appears to be a double-edged sword for TV ODMs With own-branded TVs, the companies are able to keep a certain level of availability rates during the fluctuations of orders However, the business of own-branded TVs may be unfavorable for ODMs when they compete for orders from international brands like Samsung and LGE, who may worry about the capacity allocation of the ODMs and may consider the own-branded TVs as their potential competitors
WitsView notes that the two business models will co-exist in the market in the future, with their own pros and cons For TV ODMs, their ultimate strategy will be avoiding the market competition between their own-branded TVs and TVs of their clients, seeking more reliable panel supply, and increasing their cost advantages Only in this way can they secure the orders and meet the demand from clients
