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keyword:Jason Huang21 result(s)

Press Releases
Broad Strategy Deployment to be Critical Under Impact of Solar Trade War: TrendForce

2014/04/14

Energy

After the PV market underwent a period of oversupply, prices have gradually hit rock bottom since 2013 Increased market demands will support prices from dropping further Also, in the short run different supply chain segment costs have entered a bottleneck Demand will still grow in 2014 and all first-tier manufacturers can maintain higher utilization rates in the entire year, noted EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce In addition, the US-China anti-dumping and countervailing issues¬¬ will continue to affect the production utilization of Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers Overall, having wide regional market strategies is key to success in 2H14 for polysilicon to module manufacturers   Polysilicon Capacity Continues to Increase, High-Efficiency Wafer Remains the Mainstream Product “In terms of supply, it’s estimated that more manufacturers will continue to invest in polysilicon production in 2014,” said Jason Huang, research manager of EnergyTrend “Aside from Japanese and Korean manufacturers’ increased production capacities, a few major Chinese manufacturers have also expanded capacities, and gained market share through cost advantages Once market demand starts to decline, price fluctuation may be more severe”  Mainstream polysilicon price is still around US$20-25/kg Wafer manufacturers cost is differentiated through small or large manufacturers contract prices, the use of auxiliary materials and exchange rates Since the wafer industry’s concentration is more obvious than other segments within the supply chain, many vertically-integrated manufacturers have decided to raise wafer production for their own consumption to reduce outsourcing percentages As wafer prices are revised upward in 1Q gross margin can reach 5%-10% Yet, limited by economies of scales, gross margin for manufacturers with lower manufacturing capacities is around 2%-5% Price is likely to be further revised downward in 2Q, and thus further compressing small-scale manufacturers space for survival and leading towards the trend of first-tier manufacturers continual expansions    Cells Sink into Trade Wars Again, Business Models Determine Final Victor Impacted by the anti-dumping and countervailing issues, cell cost remained high in Q1 “Taiwanese manufacturers’ gross margin is about 2%-5%, but there may be room for further price upticks, due to paste and wafer price adjustments Although, Chinese already have low cell costs, the module segment will be most profitable because Chinese manufacturers are mostly vertically-integrated In the long term, cell profitability will be affected by upstream and downstream module exports, resulting in passive cell price trends,” added Huang Major module manufacturers have started to turn losses around since 2013 Apart from lowered costs, module prices remained stable because of strong demands Moreover, if vertically-integrated Chinese manufacturers profits all shift to module segment, gross margin can reach 15%-20% For now, 250W module sales price is US$ 054-068/w However, there are relatively large price differences in the markets

Press Releases
TrendForce: Taiwan’s PV Cell Shipment Reached 8.3GW in 2013 and Will Surpass 10GW in 2014

2014/01/29

Energy

Since Taiwan’s first-tier cell manufacturers achieved full-production status in 2H13 and second-tier manufacturers increased cell shipment, total cell shipment in Taiwan reached a new high in 2013 EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, indicates that the annual shipment growth rate was 42% in 2013 for Taiwan’s cell manufacturers, with total shipment exceeding 83GW As for individual Taiwanese manufacturers, shipment of Motech, Neo Solar Power, and Gintech all surpassed 1GW NSP didn’t count DelSolar’s shipment in until they acquired DelSolar in June, 2013 Thus, Motech was still the Taiwanese cell manufacturer with the largest shipment in 2013 But it’s possible to be replaced by NSP in 2014 Overall, the total shipment for the top three manufacturers is likely to represent around 55% of the total shipment in Taiwan  “Regarding the trade war initiated by Solarworld, it’s not likely to impact Taiwan in January and February Yet, if the judgment reaches final stage, they may decide to trace back to products traded since the beginning of March, 2014 By then, Taiwanese manufacturers’ OEM orders received in the end of 1Q14 and the beginning of 2Q14 may be affected,” said Jason Huang, research manager of EnergyTrend The markets tend to think that US has a moderate chance of establishing the case The investigation will bring out more issues related to minimum price and volume limit for China-USA solar products Therefore, either Chinese manufacturers reduce shipment to the US or produce cells themselves in the future will bring certain level of damage to Taiwan’s PV manufacturers “In order to correspond to the market changes, mono-si and multi-si cell development is now different for Taiwanese manufacturers Due to the decreased subsidy and fierce price competition, Japanese manufacturers may transfer part of their multi-si cell OEM orders to China in 2014 Hence, Taiwanese manufacturers must continue to increase cell’s conversion efficiency and enhance mono-si cell capacity, so they can produce modules with higher power output and focus more on the niche market,” added Huang Although Taiwan’s cell shipment may exceed 10GW in 2014 follow the increased shipment and conversion efficiency, the market condition can be somewhat uncertain in Taiwan impacted by USA’s anti-dumping investigation The trade among China, Europe, and USA will affect Taiwanese manufacturers Thus, Taiwanese manufacturers must explore a wider range of markets

Press Releases
TrendForce: MIIT to Release Company List, Chinese PV Market Development will be Directed by PV Policies

2014/01/24

Energy

EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, indicates that global PV demand will be around 42GW in 2014, a 17% rise compares to 2013 As China announced a series of PV and grid-connection policies, Chinese PV demand increases substantially Chinese companies have started to shift their focus to the domestic market “Chinese PV market is likely to be the lead in 2014 or be the first one to reach 10GW PV installations in the world,” said Jason Huang, research manager of EnergyTrend The Chinese government has been releasing PV policies to promote the industry development since the end of 2013 Policies are mainly related to power generation management, operation, and subsidy Policies such as “The notice of temporary distributed PV project management regulation”, “The temporary PV operation and supervision regulation”, and “The notice of liquidating 2012 gold sun and PV building demonstration projects” complete the PV standards within China Also, it lays foundation for the rapid PV system development in 2014 China plans to put their focus on distributed PV systems in 2014 However, due to the incomplete financial support, development, and audit process, EnergyTrend believes that instead of leaning toward distributed PV systems right away, China will put equal attention on utility-scale and distributed PV projects at the moment   Aside from the Chinese government’s subsidies on distributed PV systems, provincial and municipal sectors have proposed subsidy plans to stimulate local development to attract more system developers and investment Yet, whether subsidy condition and amount is reasonable still needs to be assessed since these types of subsidy policies will be viewed as a way to subsidize local companies, but it may be an obstacle for non-local enterprises   Other than the PV system operation and subsidy policies, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) officially announced in the end of 2013 the first-batch company list that matched “PV manufacturing standard condition” All first-tier manufacturers, totaling 109 companies, were in the list as expected Calculating each company once only, there were 11 polysilicon manufacturers, with the number of silicon brick, ingot, and wafer manufacturers being 16, 14, and 28, respectively In addition, there were 40 cell manufacturers and 43 module companies These companies can receive benefits such as bank loan support and government export tax rebate But the total number of companies may exceed 109 because more vertically integrated companies are located in China Among all, cell and module manufacturers still represented the most while the industrial concentration for upstream manufacturers have become more obvious It’s believed that the Chinese government will continue to release relevant PV policies, thus Chinese PV companies will still focus on merger and acquisition in 2014

Press Releases
TrendForce: 2014 Three Major Trends of PV Energy – High-Efficiency Cell, Energy-Storage System, and Acquisition

2013/12/13

Energy

TrendForce Shanghai Office---Demand from China, Japan, and USA will represent about 50% of the total worldwide market share in 2014 Due to the recovery of the European market and the rise of the emerging markets, supply and demand in the PV industry will be able to achieve equilibrium EnergyTrend research manager, Jason Huang, points out the three major trends within the PV industry, which are high-efficiency products, energy-storage systems, and merge and acquisitions High-efficiency products become the mainstream; target efficiency for multi-si cell is 18% by the end of 2014 Although many manufacturers have started to come up with new PV technology, crystalline silicon products remain the mainstream in the overall market Among all, multi-si products are the most popular ones because they have excellent quality, reasonable price, and simpler power plant design and inverter specifications Since 2013, module wattage has increased from 240 to 250 Multi-si cells with efficiency of 172%~176% are cells that are mostly used Follow the increased use of high-efficiency cells, downstream developers hope to acquire modules with higher wattage It’s projected that cell efficiency will rise to 176%~178% in the first half of 2014 While 60 pieces of cells’ module is equivalent to 250/255W, 72 pieces of cells’ module is equivalent to 300/305W By the end of 2014, mainstream will be products above 255/305W with efficiency of 178%~18% With energy-storage product demand turning stronger, selling it with PV system as a set will be critical to the next market development Most of the countries switch their PV development focus to self-consumption or peak-electricity usage adjustment because subsidies have been cut or even cancelled in different regions Meanwhile, residential systems have become more popular as the development of large-scale power plants starts to slow down in certain countries Hence, energy-storage systems will definitely be another trend follows PV systems In addition to lowering PV cost, energy-storage subsidy plans provided in Germany and Japan will bring new targets to the market EnergyTrend believes that it’s less possible to sell energy-storage systems alone Instead, it’s more likely to sell them with PV systems as a set from PV manufacturers As for Chinese manufacturers with the largest amount of module export, selling energy-storage systems with PV systems seems to be the best way for them to do business in Europe after signing the agreement of minimum price and volume limit with EU For now, energy-storage volume in combination with residential systems is about 3kWh~7kWh In fact, adding an energy-storage system may double the cost, however, with the support of subsidy and decreased battery price, cost for PV systems with energy storage may only be 13~17 times the original PV system price in 2014 The development for energy-storage systems may reach the next level as the market expands and electricity price continues to go up Merge and acquisition; where will new entrants appear? Merge and acquisition has been the focus in 2013 In China, LDK handed over their equity to Tongwei and Shunfeng acquired Suntech In the overseas markets, Solarworld took over Bosch Solar and Astronergy bought Conergy’s module factory Yet, the companies being acquired have cried out for help a long time ago None of the companies with high market shares decided to start a joint venture Due to the increased demand in the market, companies have begun to set the sales target for next year Furthermore, downstream development trend shows that  industrial concentration will become more obvious in 2014 Huang indicates that what’s worth observing in 2014 is to see if there are companies that choose to exit from the market before completely waning because this is where market share will be affected substantially With PV cost continuously declining, many large oil and grid companies begin to take PV energy into consideration once again In 2014, there will be more energy companies re-allocating PV energy into their energy development roadmap and what PV companies have to do is to clarify who is the player with the most chips in the future energy market

Press Releases
TrendForce: PV Energy Enters High Stable Growth in Asia-Pacific Emerging Markets

2013/10/30

Energy

The Asia-Pacific region’s PV energy demands is exceeding Europe in 2013, due to emerging Chinese, Japanese and Indian markets, according to EnergyTrend, a green energy subsidiary of TrendForce Due to high growth potential in China and Japan’s domestic market, it is estimated the Asia market demand will still be much higher than other markets Emerging markets in Asia will maintain high stable growth, especially after a two year preperation phase In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan and China had the highest PV energy demand in 2013, according to EnergyTrend Research Manager Jason Huang Demands in Japan this year soared two to three times compared to 2012, while China benefited from a series of subsidiary policies that will gradually target 6, 10, 12 GW solar power stations from 2013-2015 India and Australia have become the primary regions for stable development in the Asia-Pacific region, while emerging Asia market will require one to two years to develop Countries including Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines all have good solar energy potential PV energy demands emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region will soar at an compound annual growth rate of 338% before 2017, and will become a major pillar for Asia-Pacific PV energy market development The Chinese market has released a series of supportive policies since July including long term installation target, grid-connected regulations, Feed-in Tarrif (FiT) , subsidiary period, increase renewable energy funds that will speed up the development of China’s PV energy market China’s PV market is developing in two directions—large solar power stations and distributed systems, said Huang Although, the distributed PV system will become the main market application in the future, it will take some time before related policies become effective Therefore, China will still be mostly focused on large power stations in the next two to three years In contrast, PV subisidiary policies implemented by Japan last year contributed to a huge surge in power stations Moreover, PV demands are soaring in the country due to increased consumer tax, speed up of power station constructions, and Japan’s application as the host country for the 2020 Summer Olympics In general, the PV supply chain in 2013 has been particularly hot i n Chinese and Japanese markets However, four countries in southeast Asia including Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Philippines are being viewed as potentially emerging PV markets because of ample natural sunlight  and economic development demands Four southeast Asia countries not only have implemented FiT policies, they have also established renewable energy installation targets for 2020-2030 There are still risks in emerging markets, though, including political instability, complicated application procedures, and differences in government and electric grid company attitudes All these factors have affected investors’ confidence in investing in local markets The 2014 outlook for the solar energy market is continual growth China, Japan, and US market demands account for about 50% of the global market, and solar energy demands are expected to improve with the rebounding European market and rise of emerging markets Overall, the solar energy market recovery will become increasingly obvious EnergyTrend will be hosing its first “PVforum 2013 – Market Status and Future Development for Solar Power Plants in Asia”on Oct 31, 2013 The forum will be focused on technical barriers;solar insurance and O&M; solar power station development outlook ;solar energy storage system applications; the Asia market outlook and offer thorough analysis of other popular issues in the market Huang will also be delivering a speech on the Asia PV market and media are welcome to attend and interview him at the event A detailed agenda can be viewed at: http://seminarenergytrendcom/PVforum/2013/TW/agenda/ PVforum 2013 is sponsored by Skwentex International Corp and Changs Ascending Enterprise Corp (CEAC)

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