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Keyword：Jason Huang，
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2014/10/08
For Chinese solar manufacturers, the fourth quarter is the most important time for solar photovoltaic installations It is then that Chinese vendors speed up deployment to meet the central government’s annual targets The Chinese government’s support for renewable energy bolsters their efforts If that support continues, the productivity of Chinese solar manufacturers will increase in tandem
The latest draft of China’s renewable energy policy, which outlines targets for 2015, 2017 and 2020, respectively, differs considerably from the previous draft issued in 2012, said Jason Huang, research manager at EnergyTrend, a subsidiary of the Taiwan-based market intelligence firm TrendForce First, basic renewable energy targets have risen for the most part Second, the nexus of development has shifted from the northwest of China to the east, where the China National Energy Administration wants more solar systems built Third, the policy sets forth mandatory renewable energy requirements Renewables - excluding hydropower - must comprise a certain portion of total power consumption by 2015 and 2020, respectively, and meet basic standards or advanced standards promulgated by Beijing Petrochemical power facility construction will be restricted for local Chinese governments, including autonomous regions and cities, which fail to reach the basic standards By contrast, Beijing will reward regions that reach advanced standards They will receive more generous renewable energy and electric grid construction subsidies as well as other financial support
The China solar industry aims to reach 100 GW of solar PV deployment cumulatively by 2020, targeting 10-15 GW annually from 2014, Huang said In 2015, the following provinces will each be responsible for 10% of deployment: Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Gansu, Ningxia and Xinjiang Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and Qinghai will be responsible for 7% of deployment, respectively Shanghai , Jiangsu, Anhui and Fujian will each account for 4% Finally, Zhejiang, Jiangxi and Chongqing will only comprise 2% of deployment, respectively
In recent years, the solar market’s focus has shifted from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region, with China and Japan leading the development of solar energy systems, Huang said “With Beijing’s backing, China’s impact on the global solar market will be far-reaching Chinese demand for solar energy will become the decisive factor in the market’s ability to grow sustainably,” he added
This week's price quotes
With China’s week-long October holiday just wrapping up, there were few changes in prices this week October orders are steady, while the plant utilization rate is similar to September Polysilicon prices held at US $ 204/ kg, while there were some minor changes in wafer prices The prices of some high-efficiency polycrystalline silicon wafer orders increased slightly Monocrystalline silicon wafer prices decreased Cell and module prices remained the same as last week
2014/10/03
In the past, Europe accounted for the greatest share of global solar demand and dictated the market’s movements, but as the Asia-Pacific market fast expands, China and Japan are playing a much larger role Demand from those two Asian countries usually rises sharply in the fourth quarter and carries through to the first quarter of the following year “From early September, the entire supply chain has been preparing for the imminent surge in demand from China and Japan that will come in the fourth quarter,” said Jason Huang, research manager at EnergyTrend, a subsidiary of the Taiwan-based market intelligence firm TrendForce When that demand shoots up, second and third-tier companies will use OEM orders to increase their utilization rates and the overall utilization rate will return to more than 85%, Huang added
While polysilicon prices were stable for the most part, they did decrease incrementally because of ongoing trade disputes in the third quarter Those disputes also caused international polysilicon manufacturers including Samsung and Tokuyama to delay expanding production capacity As a result, there was not a significant increase in polysilicon raw material shipments As the trade disputes drag on, China has temporarily halted processing trade applications, and is using that as leverage in trade negotiations with the US The US government’s final decision in December regarding anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese solar manufacturers will affect whether Beijing will continue to use tariffs to bar US polysilicon imports, Huang said, adding: “The polysilicon market will be more volatile in 2015 if China and the US cannot reach an agreement on anti-dumping and countervailing duties” That could lead to polysilicon prices rising in the Chinese market, but falling sharply in other markets
There are two emerging long-term trends in the silicon wafer market First, top manufacturers will acquire greater market share as demand for efficiency increases Second-tier and third-tier manufacturers will not be able to meet that demand because of technology limitations Second, to raise power output, silicon wafers may become larger Alternatively, manufacturers will return to developing mono-like wafers
Taiwanese cell manufacturers have long been dominant players in the development of high-efficiency cells To increase product competitiveness as they expand into new markets, they have boosted monosilicon production capacity The Taiwanese manufacturer Neo Solar Power’s (NSP) monosilicon production capacity is now close to 50% of its total production capacity Other manufacturers have also increased monosilicon production capacity Taiwanese vendors’ monosilicon production capacity in 2015 is expected to reach 30-40% of their overall production capacity
In the module sector, global production capacity exceeded 64GW in the fourth quarter, well over 40% of global demand Despite high volume production, there have been marked differences in utilization rates since modules can be easily adjusted For instance, in the third quarter, some second and third-tier manufacturers’ utilization rates fell below 50%, with some even halting production From an annual perspective, six out of the top 10 global module manufacturers (including thin film manufacturers) are from China More than seven module manufacturers will ship over 2GW of products, while Yingli Solar and Trina Solar may ship over 35GW of solar products The two companies are expected to maintain shipment volume of more than 1GW in the fourth quarter Compared to 2013, these manufacturers’ shipment volumes increased more than 30%, and far exceeded global demand growth Shipment volumes are now concentrated among top manufacturers
This week’s price quotes
Despite China’s week-long October holiday, prices have not been affected too much Currently, fourth quarter orders look stable, but manufacturers are waiting for the end of the holiday in China to see if prices rise as expected Right now nothing is for certain Polysilicon prices fluctuated this week as expected, rising 029 percent to US $ 204 / kg Low-cost silicon wafer prices held steady, while standard polysilicon and monosilicon wafers rose 022% and 085%, respectively, to US $ 09 / pc and US $ 118 / pc There were no large changes in cell prices Chinese cells did increase 032 percent to US $ 0315 / watt Module prices remained the same as last week
2014/09/25
Although supply and demand are fluctuating heavily in the global solar market, the market’s preference for high-efficiency products has remained consistent, with Taiwan manufacturers leading the way, according to EnergyTrend, a subsidiary of the Taiwan-based market intelligence firm TrendForce Sunrise Global Solar Energy, which is now a subsidiary of Sino-American Silicon Products, is the market’s pioneer in applying PERC (Passivated Emitter Rear Cell) technology in the solar cell production process Other firms using the technology include Motech, Gintech Energy and Neo Solar Power “PERC offers better efficiency at a competitive cost, which is causing demand for the technology to surge,” said Jason Huang, a research manager at EnergyTrend
The improved solar cell technology means the wattage of a single module is increased while the cost of each unit is decreased That brings down the overall production cost considerably and makes high-efficiency products especially attractive to system developers However, PERC performance varies In polysilicon cells, PERC increases efficiency 06%, but in monosilicon cells 08% to 1% “Monosilicon cells see the greatest gains from PERC technology,” said Huang “That’s why Taiwan vendors will focus on expanding monosilicon cell production capacity in the second half of the year”
Taiwan solar cell manufacturers currently are utilizing PERC technology more than of any of their competitors aand have about 1 GW of PERC production capacity Two firms in the China market to watch are JA Solar, which is developing faster than any of its competitors and Canadian Solar, which aims to implement PERC technology in its production process soon Monosilicon modules made with PERC technology have a power output of more than 280W and since there very few are manufactured in China, the prices for solar cells within this power efficiency range are different than standard monosilicon modules Currently, demand from Japan is strongest Once demand picks up in other markets, profits will rise for Taiwan cell manufacturers
Among cell manufacturers, PERC technology is viewed as the best way to increase efficiency, because the equipment used in production and the process itself do not differ greatly from traditional methods Manufacturers can use PERC to reduce capital expenditure while boosting efficiency PERC application in the future will also influence the usage of monsilicon and polysilicon wafers Currently China’s top monosilicon and polysilicon wafer producers are Longi Silicon and Zhonghuan Huanou The top Taiwanese producer is AUO Crystal
This week’s price quotes
Prices for October should be set to continue rising as demand for high-efficiency cells increases Yet as China will take a week-long national holiday beginning October 1, prices in the past week have not changed much The average price for polysilicon is US$2034/kg The low-priced wafers are up and stable since the end of September High efficiency and standard polysilicon wafer prices are the same as last week As for cell prices, low-priced products have decreased slightly By contrast, module prices have risen continuously for two weeks, increasing 052% to US$0575/watt as producers take turns boosting average prices
2014/09/19
More than a month after the US International Trade Commission's (ITC) anti-dumping and countervailing duties ruling against China's and Taiwan's solar makers, the effects of that decision continue to shape those firms’ business strategies Amidst trade disputes with the US and EU, Chinese solar manufacturers have begun moving production offshore over the past two years, said Jason Huang, a research manager at EnergyTrend, a subsidiary of the Taiwan-based market intelligence firm TrendForce For instance, the solar manufacturer CSUN has set up factories in Turkey while ReneSola, also a Chinese solar firm, is using OEM models in Japan, Korea, India and Poland to sidestep trade barriers and unfavorable taxation rates With a new round of anti-dumping and countervailing duties expected, JinkoSolar will build its 100-120MW modules in South Africa Yingli Solar and Suntech Power may also increase production capacity overseas
Taiwan producers are also ensnared in the latest round of anti-dumping investigations in the United States While the duty rates may ultimately change, combined pressure from declining sales and rising prices will compel Taiwan vendors to gin up overseas manufacturing Currently, Tainergy Tech has established cell and module production lines in Vietnam Solartech Energy has built a solar cell production line in Malaysia Other vendors plan for upstream manufacturers to build module production lines in Thailand Cell manufacturers also have plans to develop solar cell or module capacity in the Americas in the 100 - 200MW range
While overseas production may help Chinese and Taiwanese vendors negate the effects of trade disputes and taxation, those firms are also considering weaker economic conditions and an increase in local labor costs as they continue to move production offshore Producers are weighing the needs of the local market as well as their organizations’ global strategy, Jason Huang said, adding: “But costs remain paramount for most solar manufacturers Emerging markets are certainly catering to that focus on costs by offering tax breaks and other perks to attract foreign investment Whether the solar industry can truly develop in those markets, however, remains open to question”
Cells produced by Korean and Malaysian manufacturers, who have not been hit by the US anti-dumping and countervailing duties, are currently priced at US $040-$042, about 205% higher than those made by Taiwan firms That gives Taiwanese firms leverage to negotiate with customers At the same time, while well established globally as high-efficiency cell producers, Taiwanese vendors are hampered by their limited access to export markets As a result, they face greater demand fluctuations With that in mind, many Taiwanese firms are choosing to set up their factories in foreign countries close to major export markets
This week’s price quotes
As the fourth quarter approaches, prices in the supply chain are relatively stable A wave of price increases is tentatively set to sweep through the polysilicon industry, but for now things remain stable at US $ 2034 / kg Silicon wafer prices remain flat, but as low-cost supply dwindles in October, polysilicon prices could move Efficient polysilicon wafer prices fluctuated 01% to reach US $ 0935 / piece Standard silicon wafers remained unchanged from last week at US $ 0898 / piece Monocrystalline silicon wafers also remained steady at US $ 117 / piece Due to lagging production capacity, Taiwan-produced cells averaged US $ 0335 / watt China-produced cells increased 064% to US0314 /watt Module prices rose 053 percent to US $ 0572 / watt
2014/06/26
Contrary to PV manufacturers’ high utilization rates spurred by UK and Japan market demands in first quarter of 2014, pricing in the PV industry is likely to drop in the following quarter, according to EnergyTrend, a subsidiary of Taiwan-based market intelligence firm TrendForce The research organization attributed ongoing countervailing duty (CVD) and anti-dumping duty (AD) issues between US, China, and Taiwan as the main cause behind the decline, and noted PV shipments were mostly focused on the US market, while shipments have eased in other markets
Solar PV supply chains are starting to see demand in China whither, while demand in the US and Japan remain stable, said EnergyTrend Research Manager Jason Huang As such trends occur, solar supply chains are nevertheless expected to increase production capacity in the second half of 2014, which means Chinese market demands will play a major role in terms of global solar PV pricing and volume If demands in China remain at around 10-12GW then manufacturers in the PV supply chain can balance out orders in conjunction with their new capacity However, if Chinese market demands are lower than expected coupled with uncertainties surrounding CVD and AD issues, the PV market still risks oversupply and hence declined prices
Polysilicon capacity continues to increase; silicon wafer prices drop
Meanwhile, recent EnergyTrend statistics show first-tier polysilicon makers are currently running at full capacity and polysilicon pricing is on the rise Evaluations of manufacturers expansion plans after 2015 show manufacturers that previously halted productions returning to the market In the short term, these manufacturers will be focused on manufacturing quality so utilization rates will remain low and have limited effect on market demands
Silicon wafer makers on the other hand saw strong demands in the first quarter of 2014, and thus this led to steady PV shipments and pricing Meanwhile, second-tier manufacturers were able to maintain high utilization rates However, as demands weaken in 2Q14, second-tier vendors are likely to return to more conservative outlooks, and production strategies after clearing out inventory
Solar cell manufacturers witness high market demands
Because of the postponement on the US-China preliminary AD rulings, solar cell makers in Taiwan could maintain high utilization rates till mid-June this year On the other hand, Chinese manufacturers saw utilization rates drop due to the financing pressures caused by excess inventory in the US If solar demand picks up in the second half of the year, however, manufacturers might add more than 4GW solar cell production capacity onto the market, said Huang
In terms of modules, top Chinese manufacturers still control export markets, and are using it as a measure to alleviate shipment risks Whereas second- and third-tier makers have seen reduced OEM orders Moreover, the Chinese market demand has remained dormant, with manufacturers utilization rates showing polarized results Trade wars with US are also impacting Chinese manufacturers business strategy as more are engaged in global OEM strategies
Other manufacturers outside of China and Taiwan have also scaled up production capacity in Southeast Asia, Korea, Japan and other regions to fill in the demand gap left by Chinese manufacturers because of trade wars against China carried out by Europe, US, India and Australia
