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keyword:Jason Huang21 result(s)

Press Releases
TrendForce: New AD/CVD Duties Ruling - Tariffs Rise for China, Drop for Taiwan, Solar Makers Seek U.S. Export Channels

2014/12/17

Energy

United States Department of Commerce has announced its 2014 anti-dumping and countervailing duties final tariff ruling on December 17th Tariffs for Chinese manufacturers are higher than the preliminary determination, while lowered slightly for Taiwanese makers Chinese modules’ anti-dumping (AD) tariffs range from 2671% to 16504%; while the countervailing duties (CVD) range from 2764% to 4979% For Taiwan, Motech’s rate is significantly decreased to 1145% Gintech Energy’s tariff remains at 2755% while other Taiwan makers’ tariff rates are lowered 195% due to Motech’s updated rates The ruling results in higher AD/CVD duties for China, and Taiwan’s solar cell loses its market entry channel to the US via Chinese manufactured modules Chinese makers, on the other hand, will produce their own solar cells, modules and use the 2012 tariff rate to sell their products to the US In particular, Trina Solar’s 2012 tariff rate of 2375% bears the greatest advantage  Jason Huang, Research Manager at EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, indicates that in the short term, Taiwan’s solar cell prices are expected to rise In addition to the stimulus from the AD/CVD duties’ final ruling, the prices are also encouraged by the UK, Japan and China’s markets It is expected to increase both in shipment volume and price in the first quarter of 2015  Despite the AD/CVD duties’ effects, US demand in 2015 will continue to grow, while the module price may increase slightly Based on the current price level of US$065~068/W, module price is projected to increase by US$003~005/W “Considering the market supply and demand changes, Hanhwa SolarOne is believed to be the most positive one, with its recent announcement of expanding its module plant above 2GW capacity in South Korea, while other Chinese makers have also established module plants in Europe, Canada, South Africa, Malaysia, India, Japan and Turkey, etc” said Huang In 2015, Chinese maker’s overseas module production capacity is expected to exceed 3GW; the total capacity, when combined with the original European and US module makers’ capacity, is sufficient to meet the US market demands  In terms of the competitive advantage of Taiwanese maker, Huang further added that in the future, as the US market’s module price increases slightly along with Taiwan’s relatively lower tariff rates, Taiwanese makers may have chances to enter the US market to compete by developing its own modules in Taiwan Currently, Taiwan’s module production capacity is at about 22GW, and there is a chance that it may increase in 2015 Moreover, Taiwan’s modules which use solar cells produced by a third country were not included in the scope of this round of investigation As a result, as some of Taiwan’s solar cell plants have been moved overseas, they can still return to Taiwan’s existing module production line to manufacture the goods for export to the United States   

Press Releases
TrendForce: 2015 Worldwide Solar Demand to Grow 16.5%, Emerging Markets Growth to Surpass 40%

2014/12/15

Energy

The worldwide solar market demand in 2014 was approximately at 44GW, even though the China market did not perform as well as expectations, due to the continuous growth in Japan and the US market, the supply and demand remained stable At the end of 2014, the overall supply chain maintained a solid utilization rate, while China’s tier-one module manufacturers also continued to break shipment records Jason Huang, Research Manager at EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, indicates that the 2015 worldwide solar demand is projected at 514GW, with the key markets remaining in China, United States, and Japan, taking up 57% of the overall share, yet it is slightly lower than that of 2014 The rise of the emerging markets (the solar installation countries that are out of top 10) has begun to appear starting the second half of 2014 In 2015, the growth momentum of the emerging markets will become more apparent, and the overall demand will surpass 10GW  2015 Solar Market’s 5 Major Trends as follows:  (1) Polysilicon price to fall again, wafer strives for high efficiency products  Price has always been the market’s most concerned indicator, due to the changes such as the Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Duties trade issues and supply and demand transitions, the 2014 prices often experienced dramatic fluctuations over a short period of time or within a specific country or region “Within the overall supply chain price changes, the most significant revisions will most likely to be the polysilicon prices,” Huang indicates In addition to the major increase in polysilicon production in 2015, China’s anti-dumping and countervailing duties towards Europe, United States and South Korea, suspension of applying handbook for processing trade, expiration of long-term contracts for polysilicon and low-priced polysilicon production increase and other variables can all cause the polysilicon prices to be revised downward significantly EnergyTrend projects that polysilicon price will fluctuate between US$17-20 throughout the year  As for the wafers, the mono wafer price will slowly fall to a more reasonable cost-performance ratio as it attempts to increase its market share and competitiveness with the multi wafer products Due to the strong market demand for super high-efficiency multi wafers, the price is better supported Regular high-efficiency products prices may continue to fall due to the large number of competitors together with the pressure of the upstream and downstream solar cells and modules  (2) Solar cell competition intensifies, module profit is expected to increase again  In 2015, solar cell is considered a relatively more challenging part of the supply chain Even though market demand remains still, due to the effects of oversupply, similarity in efficiency between solar cell makers and greater concentration of downstream module makers, solar cells will face tougher price competition, causing the multi products to enter a loss situation Only some high-efficiency multi cells or mono cells can maintain a small profit margin The downstream modules continue with the trend of the greater players remaining strong Through the rise of emerging markets and downstream’s  attention towards positive cycle of quality and branding, the tier-one module makers with stable financial situations will be able to receive more orders Even though the module prices will continue its downward adjustments, yet together with the improvements in high-efficiency products and materials, EnergyTrend projects that by the end of 2015, the worldwide tier-one module makers’ cost can reach US$043/W, and the module maker’s profits will shine even more  (3) Multi-Si material hits bottleneck, Mono-Si + PERC becomes focal point for next year’s efficiency increase  With the solar cell efficiency increase over the past year or so, the wafers improvements provided greater contribution However, as the bottleneck for material hits, mono-si has now become the shortcut for breakthroughs At the same time, the solar cell technology must also follow suit, using PERC technology solar cells is a market-proven method for stable and mass production of high-efficiency products On the other hand, larger-sized mono-si wafer M1/M2, 4BB (4-busbar)’s application will also increase, in order to obtain higher efficiency Huang indicates that in 2015, the solar makers will focus on the improvements of P-type mono-si Light Induced Degradation (LID) problem Though N-type mono-si is one of the highlights of next year’s global exhibits, it is still considered as an application for niche markets at the moment, having small changes in terms of its position in overall market share  (4) 2015 top ten module makers take up over 50%, top 5 module shipment at 35GW threshold  In 2014, the top 3 solar makers, Trina, Yingli and Jinko all had the opportunity to surpass the 3GW shipment threshold The total shipment volume from top 10 module maker takes up 50% of the global market share, marking a continuous increase from the 46% in 2013 In 2015, a single maker may break the shipment record of more than 5GW Therefore, in order to be in one of the top 5 module makers, the shipment must achieve at least 35GW On the other hand, as the China market continues to expand, the rise of emerging markets and other structural changes, China makers will take up more than 7 spots among the world’s top 10 solar company ranking  (5) With 3 major variables: trade war, financial policies and electric grid development, global strategy diffuses the operational risks  The trade wars among the countries remain the greatest variable that would affect the worldwide solar supply chain Therefore, whether to increase overseas production locations or countries for shipments are both the basic means through which solar companies maintain their competitiveness In addition to the trade wars, the demand-side is also affected by each country’s economy, financial policies and electric grid company’s operational attitude The rise and fall of the major solar countries were all due to the factors above, causing a large scale decrease in a short period of time Thus, spreading out the management and sales and expanding to the emerging markets will be the collective activities within the solar industry in 2015 This is the most stable way to lower the fluctuations in each country and region and maintaining a winning chance 

Press Releases
TrendForce: Module Output Key to Reducing Cost of Solar Systems

2014/11/20

Energy

Solar PV manufacturers are switching over to higher efficiency monocrystalline cells to increase power output, but for solar energy systems, overall module output is key “In order to balance costs and the power efficiency of solar systems, it is important to reduce CTM (cell to module) loss as well as place greater emphasis on module assembly technology and materials application,” said Jason Huang, research manager at EnergyTrend, a division of the Taiwan-based market intelligence firm TrendForce  A number of solar PV firms are working to bolster module output For instance, SunEdision has developed zero white space (ZWS) technology that boosts performance by optimizing the solar module itself ZWS utilizes the area between cells, eliminates losses from bus bar shadowing, and reduces electrical losses That reduction in losses and additional active area generate higher power output Other solar firms are using larger silicon wafers and more efficient cells, such as Komax Solar Its HIP module has a larger area than a typical module and uses shading reduction to enhance output  Module power output of 60 pcs of polycrystalline cells is primarily 250W and 255W But there is a new 300W module available that offers many advantages Winaico's 300W module adopts the M1 mono-si wafer, which is larger than the traditional P-type mono wafer, and uses PERC technology Along with special conductive pads with LCR (Light Capturing Ribbon), this technology can effectively reduce efficiency losses in the assembly process  By balancing module output and overall system cost, it is possible to both use expensive high-efficiency cells and reduce other costs associated with solar systems such as brackets, cables and land area, Huang said “The high-wattage 300W output module offers an opportunity to reduce system costs 5-8% from the current mainstream 250W module,” he said Currently, modules account for 28-35% of the overall cost of a solar system, so boosting module output can result in significant savings per system unit Cost advantages to higher output modules are especially evident in markets where labor costs are high, such as the US and Japan, Huang added  This week’s spot-market prices  Prices in part of the supply chain fell this week Notably, polysilicon prices remained weak Special high-efficiency and high-efficiency polysilicon wafer prices were flat but Chinese polysilicon wafer prices declined There was a slight decline in monosilicon wafer prices of 043% to US$115 / pc Cell prices remained the same as polycrystalline did not move at all Polycrystalline modules fell 087% to US$0573 / W while monocrystalline modules did not change significantly 

Press Releases
TrendForce: EU Mulling Anti-Circumvention Measures on Asian Countries Solar Exports

2014/10/31

Energy

Following the anti-dumping and countervailing measures imposed by the United States on Chinese and Taiwanese solar PV manufacturers, the European Union is now investigating other Asian countries for allegedly helping China violate the terms of a solar-export agreement it has with the EU, said Jason Huang, a research manager at EnergyTrend, a division of the Taiwan-based market intelligence firm TrendForce The European Union and China previously reached an agreement that allows solar panels from China to be sold to Europe in limited volumes at a fixed price, but EU ProSun, a joint initiative of European solar businesses, alleges that other countries are importing unfinished Chinese solar products, putting the finishing touches on them and then exporting the products to Europe he said, adding that South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan are currently being investigated  In June, EU ProSun presented documents to the EU Committee that alleged Chinese solar products were being sold to Europe for less than the minimum price China and Europe had agreed upon EU ProSun said that China went through multiple channels to sell solar products to Europe for below the agreed minimum The EU Committee rejected EU ProSun’s allegations, but in August, when it was rumored that new anti-dumping investigations would be launched, many manufacturers clarified their statements and denied they had been investigated But recently some manufacturers have confirmed that they are being investigated and say they are complying with investigators “If Asian manufacturers are guilty of helping Chinese solar firms circumvent the agreement China has with the EU, the EU may impose a 47% duty on all of their solar exports, as they did previously to Chinese manufacturers,” Huang said  Since a new minimum price of solar products exported from China to Europe has not been announced officially, the price for the fourth quarter may be lower than the price set in April, which was 053/watt Meanwhile, Taiwanese manufacturers have cost advantages in the European market To avoid being hit with anti-dumping levies, they are trying to clarify that they don't help Chinese makers to circumvent the minimum price agreement Data show that Europe accounted for 18% of Taiwan’s overall module exports in 2012 and 29% in 2013 Europe is Taiwan’s second-largest module export market Japan is the largest  Meanwhile, since the US’s decision on the countervailing act on China’s solar exports will be postponed, a decision on the anti-dumping act will be postponed as well That was originally scheduled to be announced in mid-December For now, it is essential that the US and China come to a minimum price agreement similar to the one between China and Europe The results of the agreement will not only affect the US solar market and Taiwanese and Chinese manufacturers, but will have a major impact on the global solar supply chain, Huang said  This week’s price quotes  As a result of the anti-dumping and countervailing duties, there were some urgent purchases and considerable price fluctuation in the supply chain However overall, the price for polysilicon was stable Some silicon wafer prices moved 05% and monocrystalline silicon wafer prices dropped the most China cell prices rose 031% to US$0319/W while Taiwan cells decreased 09% to US$0332/W This is a concern for the Taiwan cell market as it is nearly November Modules prices in China are stable as is demand for modules 

Press Releases
TrendForce: US anti-dumping, countervailing duties cast shadow over solar market

2014/10/16

Energy

The US International Trade Commission recently announced it would extend the final decision of countervailing duties on solar photovoltaic (PV) imports from China and change the scope of the investigation to target modules and cells However, a 2012 decision on Chinese cells prevails, so they will not be affected by the ITC’s recent amendment By contrast, duties will likely be slapped on Chinese modules, irrespective of where wafers or cells used in the modules are produced Taiwan manufacturers, meanwhile, should expect for modules produced in Taiwan to be investigated as well as third-party module manufacturers who use Taiwan-made cells  The ITC’s new amendment to the 2014 anti-dumping and countervailing duties simplified the criteria under which Chinese modules can be targeted, said Jason Huang, a research manager at EnergyTrend, a subsidiary of the Taiwan-based market intelligence firm TrendForce As a result, it is now easier for the US to block imports of Chinese modules Originally, if Chinese modules used silicon wafers produced outside of China and cells produced in Taiwan, they could avoid the duties, Huang said “But this new amendment is a game changer Now if companies like Yinlgi, Suntech or Jinko choose to manufacture modules in China, they will produce cells themselves rather than using cells made in Taiwan This will ensure the modules are only hit with the lighter 2012 duties rather than the new, higher one This will cause market demand for Taiwan-produced cells to plummet”  As a result of the amendment to the US’s anti-dumping and countervailing duties, Taiwan cell manufacturers will see a drop in orders from Chinese vendors Meanwhile, Chinese silicon wafer manufacturers, who enjoy a cost advantage, will be unaffected They will be able to keep prices down But wafer manufacturers outside of China will be undercut by those low prices  Most modules shipped to the United States sell for US$075~08/W and enjoy a reasonable profit margin But if vendors choose a third-party destination to produce cells or modules, they can save $004~006/W and boost profits, Huang said “Developing production capacity outside of Taiwan or China will be instrumental for Taiwanese and Chinese solar firms to remain profitable in the future,” he added    This week’s price quotes  Prices this week were relatively stable with some minor increases Although demand from China was less robust than expected, most polysilicon prices still increased to US$207/kg, up 147% over the previous week Polysilicon wafers prices saw little change Demand for monosilicon decreased slightly and prices fell 085%to US$117/pc Cell and module prices were almost identical to last week 

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