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2016/09/19
EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, reports that prices across the PV supply chain have collapsed to new lows in the second half of 2016 due to plunging demand Furthermore, quotes of PV cells and wafers are not expected to bottom out this September The current market analysis indicates that most manufacturers are not achieving profitability
Looking ahead to 2017, the entire supply chain – from polysilicon to PV modules – will see supply exceeding demand significantly by 18~35% In sum, EnergyTrend expects to oversupply to become quite severe
Most PV enterprises still had an optimistic outlook in the second quarter of 2016 even though the market was showing weakness They assume that the downtrend was cyclical and temporary However, the second half of the year has seen a rapid freeze in demand
Since the second quarter, EnergyTrend has been anticipating that demand would drop sharply in the second half of the year mainly because of the effects of China’s installation rush Much of the domestic demand for the second half of the year was shifted to the first half, when the installation rush caused the market to overheat After the rush ended in June, China as the world’s largest PV market fell into a slump and dragged down the rest of the global market
Global PV market to witness stalled growth in 2017
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter and 2017, EnergyTrend expects India to maintain annual growth next year and remain as the bright spot in the global market The scale of the PV markets in South America, the Middle and the emerging markets will also gradually expand Nonetheless, 2017 will be mostly a disappointing year as demand in the US and Japan will fall slightly due to changes in subsidy policies Also, China may just be able to sustain the same level of installation as that of 2016 On the whole, the global PV market will be at a standstill in 2017 with the annual growth rate at zero for the first time on record
EnergyTrend projects the global PV demand will increase by just 03GW from 634GW in 2016 to 637GW in 2017 even as the global supply expands significantly For example, the worldwide production capacity of PV cells in 2017 will increase by 13~15GW compared with the prior year, leading to a massive glut in the market Likewise, EnergyTrend expects that all other sections of the supply chain will see supply outpacing demand by 18~35% This situation will not only last through the entire 2017 but may also extend to 2018
EnergyTrend believes seasonal demand and the partial recovery of the Chinese market will help prices to rebound slightly after hitting the bottom later in the coming six months However, the increase in supply will be a strong force that keep prices on a downtrend Hence, the fourth quarter of 2016 and the entire 2017 will be buyer’s market despite seasonal effects on prices
2016/03/10
Currently, the healthcare sector can be divided into three major subfields – pharmaceuticals, medical devices and biotechnology The medical device industry in particular has huge growth potential due to advances in information communication technology (ICT) “New technologies have significantly enhanced the capabilities of medical devices,” said Jason Huang, TrendForce’s research manager for the healthcare industry “Furthermore, concepts such as smart systems, electronic medical records and medical Internet of Things are transforming the fundamentals of the global medical device industry”
The integration of ICT and healthcare will create solutions outside the confines of traditional hospitals and clinics Home healthcare devices, wearable medical devices, and telehealth are some of the applications that resulted from such integration The scale of the telehealth market in particular will exceed US$7 billion by 2020, according to TrendForce In addition to the expansion of applications, the convergence of ICT and medical device industries will also result in cross-sector innovations For instance, some of the new entrants to the medical device market traditionally belong to other industries such as information technology, advanced materials, precision manufacturing, optoelectronics and imaging technology In the near future, inter-industry efforts will be crucial in the development of healthcare products and services, including medical imaging, clinical medical electronics and minimally invasive surgery
Furthermore, the merging of healthcare and ICT industries will generate solutions that will give patients instant and convenient access to healthcare services Consumers could look forward to affordable, user-friendly products that offer multiple functions in one device On the whole, the development trends of the medical device industry will benefit home healthcare market and generate demand in the emerging markets
The scale of the global medical device market will reach US$5395 billion in 2020, according to TrendForce Thus, there are enormous growth opportunities for new market entrants
ICT companies have certain technological advantages when it comes to developing medical device products, but they also face challenges from established players in the healthcare industry “Currently, a few multinational corporations control upwards of 70% of the medical device market in many countries,” said Huang, “ICT companies branching into this field will encounter a lot of difficulties To survive the competition for distribution channels and brand awareness, newcomers have to choose the right local partners and devise a clear strategy early on They can also take a step back and become suppliers to the established international brands In sum, ICT companies entering the healthcare market need to design their roadmaps in advance”
2015/04/28
The slow recovery of the global PV market continues into the second quarter Jason Huang, research manager for EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, said the market on the whole is showing positive signs even though prices along the supply chain were falling at the end of the first quarter Demands for system installation was not substantial during that period, resulting in the general price decline However, the outlook for the second half of this year is upbeat with China driving the market, and America and emerging markets will start to pick up as well Based on EnergyTrend’s estimation, the global PV market demand for 2015 will remain around 514GW
Polysilicon prices have been sliding since the end of the first quarter, back to the level of US$16/kg Huang noted that polysilicon oversupply is more acute this year, and the Chinese government is still mulling over tariff duties against foreign imports Moreover, new capacities from multiple suppliers will be added to this year’s polysilicon production Wacker and OCI, for instance, will be respectively contributing 20,000 and 10,000 tons per year Hanwha, TBEA, and Daqo New Energy will also each be adding around 3,000~6,000 tons per year China may see changes in policy, causing polysilicon prices to rise at home while falling overseas However, EnergyTrend’s latest analysis indicates this price divergence between China and the rest of the world will not occur in the second period as initially expected Instead, this event will be delayed to the start of the fourth quarter
As for the wafer market, the end of the first quarter saw a noticeable decline in shipments due to flat demands and effects of the Chinese New Year holidays However, the condition has gotten better since the start of the second quarter, and Chinese manufacturers are currently maintaining high capacity utilization rates EnergyTrend predicts wafer shipments will increase significantly as the market enters the second half of 2015, but wafer prices will nonetheless be linked to polysilicon prices The prices of mono-Si wafers are expected to decline and will again drive demands for mono-Si modules in the downstream market
In the PV cell market, many manufacturers are presently engaged in the adoption of the passivated emitter rear cell (PERC) technology Taiwanese cell manufacturers so far have been the most active increasing the capacities for PERC cells Their Chinese counterparts, such as CSI, Jinko, Trina, and JA Solar, are also following suit The main non-Chinese manufacturers that are raising PERC capacities are Solarworld and Hanwha Q CELLS Huang noted more than 15GW will be added to the existing PERC capacities worldwide before the start of this year’s third quarter “The prospects of manufacturers will start to differentiate based on their choices of applying PERC to either mono-Si or multi-Si cell,” Huang added Currently, modules assembled with multi-Si PERC cells can generate enough power to meet the output demands in the downstream market, whereas light-induced degradation is still an issue in the development of mono-Si PERC products Consequently, mono-Si PERC cells are likely to face a new round of price competition if there is steady advances in the multi-Si PERC category
Module outweighs both wafer and cell in the capacity expansion plans of many vertically integrated PV companies for 2015 Numerous China-based companies at the same time are setting up capacities abroad in anticipation of fallouts from the trade war between China and the US Therefore, the worldwide expansion of module makers will be a long-term trends in the industry’s development Huang asserted first-tier Chinese module manufacturers will see further growths in their shipments this year “China’s internal demand will reach the installation target of 178GW,” said Huang “, so it will be main driver for module shipments” Huang also pointed out shipments to Japan, the US, and other emerging markets all come from these major companies Some manufacturers posted shipment declines in the first quarter due to seasonality, but most will again cross the 1GW mark starting from this quarter Demands from China is anticipated to be in full force sometimes after May-June The first half of this year shipments will account for about 47% of the total shipments in 2015 It is expected the shipments in the second half will be greater than the first half
2015/01/06
The Department of Commerce’s preliminary review of Chinese solar cell imports for the year 2012/2013 led to big changes in antidumping and countervailing duty This new result came in less than a month since the US International Trade Commission’s ruling on the antidumping and countervailing measures against Chinese and Taiwanese solar products The revised rate for 2012 is now 175%, which is a significant reduction from the initial set rate of 30% Most Chinese manufacturers would opt to use their own cells in response to the change, according to Jason Huang, Research Manager at EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce Taiwanese solar manufacturers in turn would be negatively impacted as a result
“If the imposed duties rate for Chinese import had remained at 30%,” said Huang, “Taiwanese solar cell manufacturer Motech would continue to have a cost advantage over its Chinese rivals, and this was the reason behind its year-end announcement to merge with Topcell Solar International Co (TSI) The merger would expand the production capacity of the Taiwanese firm
“However, with the drop in the tariff rate,” Huang noted, “the vertically integrated Chinese manufacturers will become more competitive in the US market than before due to their scale”
With the rate rollback, it is estimated that the cost for Chinese solar modules is at US$ 05/W In order for Non-Chinese solar manufacturers to stay competitive, their module cost must therefore be kept under the difference of US$ 003/W or lower Taiwan local module manufacturers are unable to do so under their tariff rate for 2014 Even if they decided to outsource their production to achieve a slight cost advantage, practical market considerations and weak downstream sale channels would make such strategy unfeasible
From her survey of Chinese manufacturers, EnergyTrend Analyst Corrine Lin noted that most first-tier firms will be able to earn over 15% gross profit with the revised rate of 175%, making their US market ever more profitable Manufacturers such as Trina and CSI will be able to increase their earnings with their existing large market share However, those Chinese manufacturers that are excluded from the lower tariff rate will be facing a compound rate of 200% and likely be forced to shift production to a third country or withdraw from the US market completely
Taiwanese firms, in contrast, are heavily affected by the tariff rate change as Chinese companies no longer depend on their partnership for circumventing trade duties Not only prices will continue to suffer, but also the expected windfall in orders may not materialize Only those firms that have taken the early steps to move their production capabilities to third countries, such as Tainergy and Solartech, may be able to bounce back from the ruinous situation presently confronting Taiwan-based solar manufacturers The optimism surrounding the Motech-TSI merger dissipates as their combined production capacity now becomes a burden rather than a sound strategy Likewise, those manufacturers intending to set up facilities in third countries will be expected to speed up and scale up their plans
The reduction of tariff rate for Chinese solar manufacturers seems to signal a temporary cessation US-China trade war that is in fact a political contest between the two global powers With the approaching changes to the US energy policies in 2017, EnergyTrend expects a higher demand in the US market for the cycle of 2015-2016 On another note, the USITC hearing on Chinese and Taiwanese solar products import for 2014 will conclude at the end of January It is unlikely that the ruling will change
Figure 1: Comparison of Solar Module Costs for Chinese and Taiwanese Manufacturers under the Revised Tariff Rate for 2012
2014/12/27
Taiwanese solar cell manufacturer, Motech, announced on December 26, 2014 that it will merge with Topcell Solar International Co (TSi), and Motech will be the surviving company and remain the same company name post the merger
“After Motech’s merger, its solar cell production capacity will hit 3GW, which is the largest professional solar cell maker that focus on manufacturing solar cells Globally, it trails slightly behind the vertical integrated Hanwha SolarOne and Yingli, with 328GW and 32GW solar cell production capacity respectively,” said Jason Huang, Research Manager of EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce Following the industry development trend of larger enterprises remaining strong, production capacity expansion is also beneficial to price negotiations other than steadily leading in technology and quality, making it one of the essential factors of maintaining supply chain competitiveness
Huang indicates that currently, Motech’s production capacity in Taiwan and China are 11GW and 700MW respectively As for TSi, its production capacity in Taiwan is about 12GW Between the two, their total mono-si cell production capacity is about 450MW, and the capacity of high efficiency PERC cells is approximately 140MW Thus, multi-si cells will take up the majority of the capacity EnergyTrend projects that Motetch will gradually allocate more production capacity to mono-si cells
Motech and TSi’s production capacity scale are currently both above 1GW, and the combined company may help in lowering their costs in terms of raw material bargaining power and economy of scale after the merger On the other hand, after the US announced the final ruling for anti-dumping and countervailing duties, Motech was charged with the lowest tariff rates among the Taiwan solar cell makers As the global solar cell production capacities remain limited, it will have greater opportunities to win more orders Therefore, Motech can quickly obtain TSi’s production capacity, and win over a greater market share after the merger
Analyzing the past merger cases of Taiwan maker, NSP’s merger & acquisition of DelSolar and SAS’s merger & acquisition of Sunrise, were all mainly leaning to vertical integration For other cases, such as E-TON Solar merging into Inventec and this time’s M&A between Motech and TSi, are more geared towards expanding within a single part of the supply chain Inventec’s acquisition of E-TON Solar at the time was also mainly targeted towards E-TON’s mono-si production capacity, which can mutually strengthen the two
“Motech’s M&A this time can be considered as an expansion of production capacity, but at the moment, there is no clear indicator of any mutually strengthening aspects,” said Huang TSi plans its overall equipment in a higher standard within the industry, and it has been researching on high efficiency technology includes N-type mono-si cell “Therefore, the M&A’s purpose might not just mutually strengthen the two companies within the fiercely competitive and rapidly changing solar industry, but to minimize the differences and shorten the transition and adjustment period,” added Huang
