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2023/08/23
TV panel prices began to rise in February, aligning with China’s stock-up period for the 618 Shopping Festival Moreover, with North America’s projected 3–4% TV sales growth for the year, brands have advanced their shipments to cut down on overall manufacturing costs This approach spurred a 76% growth in 2Q23 TV shipments and an annual growth of 21% In summary, the first half of 2023 saw global TV shipments hitting 904 million units, marking a 35% YoY decline, according to TrendForce research
TrendForce reports that panel makers chose to maintain the surge in TV panel prices by controlling production as Q3 approached Contrarily, brands, in their bid to sustain sales momentum, have not been able to transfer increased panel costs to consumers in the form of retail price hikes This precarious balance has driven many brands to the brink of financial losses for Q3 Notably, as international brands boost shipments gearing up for end-of-year celebrations, and with China’s Double 11 shopping festival stocking peaking at the end of September, an 119% increase in Q3 TV shipments is anticipated, amounting to 5224 million units Still, this falls 13% short of TrendForce’s previous estimates The persistent rise in panel prices in 2H23 will compel brands to trim down on less profitable product lines Consequently, the annual global TV shipment forecast has been revised downward to 198 million units, a 15% YoY decrease
A continuous Q3 surge in TV panel prices leads major brands to reconsider their purchasing strategies
Panel makers have harnessed production to stabilize costs and revamp their financial positions this year Post Chinese New Year celebrations, Chinese brands escalated their TV panel procurement, resulting in a sustained price boost over recent months By June’s end, TV panels sized 55 inches and below attained a profit-making price threshold The upcoming Q3 anticipates that panel sizes of 65 and 75 inches, chiefly produced on the 105-generation line, will also reach profitability Prices of 50, 55, and 65-inch panels are set to surge by over 50% this year Yet, in places like North America, retail prices for these brands have not followed suit, and in some instances have even decreased, indicating a squeeze on brands’ profit margins TrendForce reveals that while major TV brands are eyeing a seasonal 68% growth for Q3 panel purchases, it’s noticeably less than what was initially chalked out With peak procurement for TV panels in September, Q4 projections anticipate a further 73% reduction As a result, meticulous production control will remain pivotal to preserving TV panel prices in the foreseeable future
Mid-to-High-End market demand sluggish: OLED and 8K TV shipments tumble in 2023
The global economic forecast for 2H23 remains enigmatic, with high-end project demand yet to see a revival Sales for both OLED and 8K TVs have witnessed a widening dip In particular, OLED TV shipments are predicted to land at 544 million units, marking a 193% YoY decrement LG Electronics, though steadfastly leading the OLED TV shipment race, has experienced a market share contraction to 536% Samsung Electronics, in its relentless market pursuit this year, has overtaken SONY to clinch second place, forecasting around 171% market share SONY, due to its intense focus on mid-to-high-tier models over the past few years, grapples with challenges across both LCD and OLED TV shipments Its OLED TV market share is speculated to contract to 151%, thereby settling at third place 8K TVs, grappling with content dearth and hefty pricing, are set to see a 254% YoY plunge in shipments, touching a mere 300,000 units
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/06/27
TrendForce’s latest forecast predicts global TV shipments for 2Q23 will reach 4663 million units—a 75% increase QoQ, a 2% growth YoY The uptick in shipments is primarily due to strong stockpiling momentum from Chinese brands for the 618 e-commerce shopping festival, as well as overseas sales of some Chinese brands surpassing expectations This marks the first YoY growth observed in seven consecutive quarters, signifying that channel inventory has returned to healthy levels after an extended period of destocking Brands will continue to adjust their stocks according to fluctuations in demand Looking ahead to Q3, the peak season for stockpiling, TV shipments are projected to increase by 135% QoQ, totaling 5292 million units
Panel makers continue to operate on a demand-driven strategy—rigorously controlling their production rates—despite TV panel sizes of 55 inches and below becoming profitable in June This strategy aims to sustain the rising trend of TV panel prices until the peak stocking season in Q3 Nevertheless, current end-user demand seems to be curbed by high inflation, with the majority of consumer demand persistently focused on low-priced models TrendForce suggests that, due to the divergence between panel prices and end-user selling prices, brands strive to maximize profits by preemptively stocking up to reduce production costs Consequently, the growth rate of global TV shipments in Q4 may decelerate, converging to 45%, for approximately 5513 million units This marks a decrease of 51% from the brands’ initial shipment plans at the year’s start, with further reductions being a possibility
Hisense and ONN sales rank in top three TV brands in North America this year
Impacted by ongoing inflation and interest rate hikes, TrendForce observes a change in consumer preferences for TV products, most evident in North America Retail sales in North America have grown 29% during the period of January to May Bestsellers include Walmart’s ONN’s 32-inch HD model (US$99) and 50-inch UHD model ($198)—holding the top two spots for five consecutive months Hisense’s 58-inch model ($268) ranked third This year, both ONN and Hisense have witnessed substantial sales growth in North America, ousting TCL and VIZIO to secure the second and third positions in market sales, with respective market shares of 183% and 135%
Hisense sets a single-quarter shipment record of 725 million units owing to promotional stocking for 618 shopping festival
The promotional prices for TVs ranging from 32 to 75 inches during China’s 618 sales have surged 10–20% higher than prices during last year’s Double 11 event, largely in part due to the continuous rise in panel prices Brands have been offering discounts on 85-inch or larger sizes to sustain sales growth As a result, Chinese brands ramped up their Q2 shipments to seize a larger market share during the 618 events, with Hisense and TCL’s Q2 shipments rising 212% and 197%, respectively Hisense broke the record for single-quarter shipments, hitting 725 million units, representing a YoY growth of 333% Hisense’s performance overall has stood out as the most impressive among all TV brands
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/05/16
TrendForce reveals that Chinese brands—capitalizing on the anticipation for the 618 shopping festival and overseas channels restocking their inventories—have pushed global TV shipments in 1Q23 to an impressive 4337 million units Despite the market being impacted by seasonal fluctuations, resulting in a 218% QoQ decline, shipment levels in 2Q23 are poised to recover to pre-pandemic levels at an estimated 4726 million units—a 9% QoQ increase Current projections indicate a notable growth in 1H23 shipments from brands compared to initial expectations at the beginning of the year Q1 and Q2 have seen an average uptick of 4%, primarily driven by a persistent surge in panel prices, which has encouraged some Chinese brands to stock up early and mitigate overall costs Considering the IMF’s projection for an economic growth rate below 3% for 2023, coupled with the ongoing impact of inflation on market demand for TVs, TrendForce anticipates a slight 12 YoY decrease in annual TV shipments, totaling 198 million units for the year
High inflation curbs demand for 8K and OLED TVs, prompting a slump in shipments
For high-end flagship products, the current economic climate proves unfavorable for sales of 8K and OLED TVs Hindered by hefty panel costs and exorbitant overall prices, 8K has struggled to gain traction in the market Compounding the issue, rampant inflation has been eating at the disposable income of consumers, contributing to a 74% nosedive in shipments last year Forecasts for this year indicate a continuation of negative growth As it stands, Samsung Electronics takes the lead in championing 8K products, cornering around 70% of the market share, while other brands exhibit tepid interest in promotion Consequently, 8K TVs have barely made a dent in the market with a meager penetration rate of 02–03% Demand for OLED TVs face similar headwinds, despite the persistent climb in LCD TV panel prices this year Although the gap between 55-inch UHD OLED and LCD panel prices will narrow from 42 times at the year’s start to 3 times in 2H23, it’s unlikely to spur brands to boost OLED shipments Projections indicate a sharp 172% drop in shipments, amounting to 558 million units
Hisense’s winning sales strategy in North America and China fuels shipment surge
Hisense deftly navigated both domestic and international markets in 2H22 Within China, Hisense utilized its sub-brand Vidda to capture the attention of young consumers with its innovative Music TVs, while Hisense’s own brand set its sights on the high-end market This dual-brand approach proved fruitful, catapulting Hisense’s market share in China to a remarkable 22% in 2022, hot on the heels of Xiaomi In overseas markets, the company homed in on promoting budget-friendly TV models; 40-inch and 58-inch models priced at a mere USD 158 and 268, respectively, became hot commodities among the top five US sales channels Hisense’s knack for delivering cost-effective options allowed it to weather the storm of inflationary pressures Its market share in North America soared to 11% in 2022, with projections expected to reach 15% this year TrendForce’s estimates paint a rosy picture for Hisense, with shipments expected to reach 267 million units this year, marking an impressive 111% YoY increase This accomplishment solidifies the brand’s position as the world’s second-largest TV manufacturer, boasting a global market share of 134%
618 presale event in late May to serve as a pivotal barometer for 2H23 TV demand projections
This year has seen prices of TV panels soaring, prompting Xiaomi to spearhead a move to hike retail prices for select TV sizes in China back in March, with rival brands trailing close behind in April Moving into the end of May, businesses are preparing for the 618 shopping festival, which represents the largest e-commerce promotional event in 1H23 The success of the presale event will serve as a crucial yardstick for brands as they gauge procurement plans for 2H23, subsequently impacting TV panel pricing trends TrendForce asserts that the decision to increase prices ahead of the 618 shopping festival reflects the limited profit margins currently found within the TV market—particularly for TVs under 65 inches It seems unlikely that promotional prices will surpass those from last year’s Double 11 shopping festival, casting doubt on the prospect of significant sales growth during the 618 event Furthermore, with Chinese brands losing steam in building up their inventories in June, panel makers will be compelled to exercise strict control over utilization rates to sustain the rising trajectory of TV panel prices
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/02/21
According to TrendForce’s research, global TV shipments are projected to drop by 243% QoQ to 4199 million units for 1Q23 This shipment figure represents a new low for first-quarter result in almost a decade TV brands on the whole have not been performing well, but Chinese brands are in a worse situation because this year’s Lunar New Year holiday began in January With the reduced number of work days in January, Chinese brands pulled some orders forward and began shipments for these orders as early as the end of 2022 Therefore, the effect of the low season during 1Q23 has been more severe for them TrendForce projects that the total TV shipments from Chinese brands in 1Q23 will register a larger-than-average QoQ drop of 306%
TrendForce pointed out Chinese brands will stock up on TV panels ahead to time in the beginning of 2Q23 so as to prepare for the 618 promotional activities that will be held by the major domestic e-commerce companies China’s domestic demand is anticipated to recover this year as the government there has eased the pandemic-related restrictions at the end of last year TV brands are working hard to synchronize with the large-scale sales events that e-commerce companies will be putting on throughout the year Furthermore, Amazon will also be hosting its Prime Day this June as scheduled With the demand generated by various promotional activities, TrendForce forecasts that global TV shipments will grow by 87% QoQ to 4564 million units for 2Q23 This growth rate represents a new high for second-quarter result since 2015
Inventory Levels Have Fallen Across TV Supply Chain Due to Panel Makers Maintaining Low Capacity Utilization Rates for Half-Year Period
Display panel makers started to significantly scale back production in September 2022 in order to limit their losses Owing to their production cuts, panel prices managed to stop falling and rise a bit for a short two-month period However, prices stopped rising in 4Q22 with the conclusion of TV brands’ promotional activities for the year-end holidays Looking at 2022 as a whole, shipments of TV panels were heavily impacted by the sharp drop in the demand for end products This development also caused panel prices to sink below the cash cost level and thereby force panel makers to experience a considerable loss To deal with this crisis, panel makers resorted to engaging in production only when there are orders Hence, they have kept a low level of capacity utilization rate for a half-year period And, in doing so, they have not only limited their losses but also pushed inventory levels down to their usual levels across the TV supply chain
Chinese TV Brands’ Total Panel Procurement Quantity for 1Q23 Has Been Corrected Up by 10%, and Non-Mainstream Brands Are Certain to Experience Hikes in Panel Prices in February
With panel makers being disciplined in production, buyers of TV panels now anticipate that panel prices will reach the bottom very soon Recently, Chinese brands have begun to stock up in preparation for the 618 promotional activities Conversely, international (non-Chinese) brands still maintain a strict control over panel procurement quantities because of uncertainties in the US and European markets Besides Chinese brands, smaller brands and ODMs have also provided additional demand during this wave of inventory building Presently, TV panel supply as a whole is tightening, and the non-mainstream TV brands are certain to face rising panel prices in February
Among large-sized TV panels, 65-inch panels have had a fairly large negative profit margin, so they are forecasted to be the first to experience a price rebound of US$2~5 in February Turning to medium-sized TV panels, LG Display lowered production capacity for 50- and 55-inch panels at the end of last year Therefore, the supply of these products are tighter and more concentrated Their prices are forecasted to rise in February as well by US$1~3 Currently, the mainstream TV brands have yet to reach a consensus with panel makers on the subject of price hikes in February because the demand for end products is still quite weak Therefore, panel makers are more definite on raising prices on panels shipped to the non-mainstream brands for February This would be the first time that the non-mainstream brands experience panel hikes ahead of the mainstream brands
TV Panel Prices Are Expected to Rise Across the Board in March and Return to Cash Cost Level Before Busy Season
Looking ahead to March, Chinese brands will continue to stock up for the 618 promotional activities and Amazon’s Prime Day, so prices are forecasted to climb for TV panels of all sizes Prices of TV panels that are 32~55 inches in size are forecasted to rise by 3~5% MoM, and prices of 65-inch TV panels are forecasted to rise by 7~9% MoM Because of this round of significant upward adjustments, TV panel prices will likely return to the cash cost level before the busy season of 2H23
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/12/21
TrendForce’s latest research finds that TV brands’ promotional activities related to China’s Singles’ Day were helped by the steep decline in display panel prices With panel prices reaching a very low level, TV brands were able to cut their prices further so as to raise shipments of whole TV sets during the promotional period On the other hand, the major international brands have come into the second half of this year with a high level of inventory as their sales performances were weaker than expected during the first half In order to effectively consume the existing inventory, TV brands have significantly corrected down the panel procurement quantity for 2H22 As a result, TrendForce now estimates that global TV shipments in 2H22 will reach 109 million units, reflecting a YoY decline of 27% Global TV shipments during the whole 2022 are currently projected to total 202 million units, showing YoY decline of 39% This annual shipment figure represents a decade low
This year, the TV market has seen a continuous decline in shipments Fortunately, there has also been a sharp drop in prices of large-sized panels Furthermore, freight transportation costs have fallen by more than 50% Thus, TV brands have been able to vigorously promote large-sized products, and the average size of TVs has also risen by 14 inches to 56 inches
TrendForce further points out that moving into 2023, supply will remain fairly plentiful for TV panels With the chance of a substantial rally in panel prices being extremely low, brands should feel an easing of cost pressure and have more flexibility when it comes to large-scale promotional activities However, the IMF has downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2023 to 27% Moreover, the US, the Eurozone, and China as the world’s three largest regional economies will continue to experience stagnation Regarding the ongoing inflation, it has recently started to ease a bit in Europe and the US, but the major regional consumer markets on the whole will continue be under its pressure Because of these factors, TrendForce believes the growth momentum of TV shipments will be severely constrained next year Global TV shipments are currently forecasted to again register a YoY decline for 2023, falling by 14% to 199 million units
Contrasting Results for Year-End Holiday Promotions: TV Sales in China During Singles’ Day Period Fell by Nearly 10% YoY, Whereas Black Friday Period in North America Saw 13% YoY Gain Despite Economic Headwinds
TV sales in China during this year have been noticeably affected by government measures for controlling local COVID-19 outbreaks During this second half of the year, TV panel prices have fallen to a new record low, and brands have also been aggressively cutting prices so as to meet their annual shipments targets However, despite all these, TV sales in China for the Singles’ Day period still fell nearly 10% YoY Turning to the North America, TV sales there shrank by 165% YoY for 1H22 as the rapidly mounting inflationary pressure squeezed consumers’ budgets Around that same time, TV brands also reached their limit in terms of inventory accumulation To reduce the glut, brands conducted inventory check across all sections of their supply chains and made significant revisions to their procurement plans Now, in 2H22, brands have been aggressively spurring demand Full-scale promotional activities commenced on Amazon’s Prime Day, and TV sales were then ramped up to a peak on Black Friday Among brands, TCL made the largest price concession for this year, cutting the price of its 55-inch Mini LED backlit model by 70% to US$199 Other brands also energetically promoted their particular product models in the holiday sales competition On account of brands’ efforts, TV sales in North America for the Black Friday period rose by 13% YoY While China and North America have exhibited very contrasting performances for the busy season, it is also clear that TV brands on the whole have gradually lowered their inventories to a relatively optimal level after months of promotional activities across channels and corrections to panel procurements
Shipments of 8K TVs Are Projected to Drop for First Time in 2022 by 74% YoY, but Growth Will Return Next Year with Unit Figure Rising Above 500,000
Another notable development that TrendForce has observed in the TV market is the tepid performance of high-end products Due to the lack of supporting broadcasting content and high retail prices, most TV brands have not been particularly keen on pushing 8K models And after years of advocacy, Samsung remains the single dominant brand for 8K TVs with a market share almost 70% Additionally, high inflation has eaten into consumers’ budgets this year TrendForce therefore projects that 8K TV shipments will register a YoY decline for the first time in 2022, dropping by 74% to just about 400,000 units It is also worth noting that Europe as one of the main sales regions for 8K TVs could be affected by the updated EU energy consumption labelling scheme (ie, Energy Efficiency Index) Specifically, energy consumption rules have been further tightened so that some older 8K models could be banned from the region starting in March 2023 However, Samsung is planning to launch new 8K models that meet the updated energy consumption standards Moreover, display panel suppliers continue to promote 8K products so as to widen adoption among TV brands TrendForce currently forecasts that shipments of 8K TVs will surpass the 500,000 unit mark for 2023, registering a YoY growth of 20%
Shipments of WOLED TVs Are Projected to Drop by 62% YoY for 2022 and Fall Further by 27% YoY for 2023
TrendForce’s latest research on panel prices finds that LCD panel prices have plummeted In fact, the price of a 55-inch UHD LCD was 48 times lower than the price of a WOLED (white OLED) O/C panel at the end of 3Q22 With the price difference between the two panels returning to where it was at the start of 2020, selling WOLED TVs have been quite challenging for brands that do offer this kind of product Therefore, TrendForce estimates that shipments of WOLED TVs will shrink by 62% YoY to 629 million units for 2022 Assuming that LG Display does not want to sacrifice profitability, it will maintain a conservative pricing strategy when quoting WOLED panels next year Given this situation, TrendForce forecasts that WOLED TV shipments will dip again by 27% YoY for 2023
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
