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2023/05/16
TrendForce reveals that Chinese brands—capitalizing on the anticipation for the 618 shopping festival and overseas channels restocking their inventories—have pushed global TV shipments in 1Q23 to an impressive 4337 million units Despite the market being impacted by seasonal fluctuations, resulting in a 218% QoQ decline, shipment levels in 2Q23 are poised to recover to pre-pandemic levels at an estimated 4726 million units—a 9% QoQ increase Current projections indicate a notable growth in 1H23 shipments from brands compared to initial expectations at the beginning of the year Q1 and Q2 have seen an average uptick of 4%, primarily driven by a persistent surge in panel prices, which has encouraged some Chinese brands to stock up early and mitigate overall costs Considering the IMF’s projection for an economic growth rate below 3% for 2023, coupled with the ongoing impact of inflation on market demand for TVs, TrendForce anticipates a slight 12 YoY decrease in annual TV shipments, totaling 198 million units for the year
High inflation curbs demand for 8K and OLED TVs, prompting a slump in shipments
For high-end flagship products, the current economic climate proves unfavorable for sales of 8K and OLED TVs Hindered by hefty panel costs and exorbitant overall prices, 8K has struggled to gain traction in the market Compounding the issue, rampant inflation has been eating at the disposable income of consumers, contributing to a 74% nosedive in shipments last year Forecasts for this year indicate a continuation of negative growth As it stands, Samsung Electronics takes the lead in championing 8K products, cornering around 70% of the market share, while other brands exhibit tepid interest in promotion Consequently, 8K TVs have barely made a dent in the market with a meager penetration rate of 02–03% Demand for OLED TVs face similar headwinds, despite the persistent climb in LCD TV panel prices this year Although the gap between 55-inch UHD OLED and LCD panel prices will narrow from 42 times at the year’s start to 3 times in 2H23, it’s unlikely to spur brands to boost OLED shipments Projections indicate a sharp 172% drop in shipments, amounting to 558 million units
Hisense’s winning sales strategy in North America and China fuels shipment surge
Hisense deftly navigated both domestic and international markets in 2H22 Within China, Hisense utilized its sub-brand Vidda to capture the attention of young consumers with its innovative Music TVs, while Hisense’s own brand set its sights on the high-end market This dual-brand approach proved fruitful, catapulting Hisense’s market share in China to a remarkable 22% in 2022, hot on the heels of Xiaomi In overseas markets, the company homed in on promoting budget-friendly TV models; 40-inch and 58-inch models priced at a mere USD 158 and 268, respectively, became hot commodities among the top five US sales channels Hisense’s knack for delivering cost-effective options allowed it to weather the storm of inflationary pressures Its market share in North America soared to 11% in 2022, with projections expected to reach 15% this year TrendForce’s estimates paint a rosy picture for Hisense, with shipments expected to reach 267 million units this year, marking an impressive 111% YoY increase This accomplishment solidifies the brand’s position as the world’s second-largest TV manufacturer, boasting a global market share of 134%
618 presale event in late May to serve as a pivotal barometer for 2H23 TV demand projections
This year has seen prices of TV panels soaring, prompting Xiaomi to spearhead a move to hike retail prices for select TV sizes in China back in March, with rival brands trailing close behind in April Moving into the end of May, businesses are preparing for the 618 shopping festival, which represents the largest e-commerce promotional event in 1H23 The success of the presale event will serve as a crucial yardstick for brands as they gauge procurement plans for 2H23, subsequently impacting TV panel pricing trends TrendForce asserts that the decision to increase prices ahead of the 618 shopping festival reflects the limited profit margins currently found within the TV market—particularly for TVs under 65 inches It seems unlikely that promotional prices will surpass those from last year’s Double 11 shopping festival, casting doubt on the prospect of significant sales growth during the 618 event Furthermore, with Chinese brands losing steam in building up their inventories in June, panel makers will be compelled to exercise strict control over utilization rates to sustain the rising trajectory of TV panel prices
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/02/21
According to TrendForce’s research, global TV shipments are projected to drop by 243% QoQ to 4199 million units for 1Q23 This shipment figure represents a new low for first-quarter result in almost a decade TV brands on the whole have not been performing well, but Chinese brands are in a worse situation because this year’s Lunar New Year holiday began in January With the reduced number of work days in January, Chinese brands pulled some orders forward and began shipments for these orders as early as the end of 2022 Therefore, the effect of the low season during 1Q23 has been more severe for them TrendForce projects that the total TV shipments from Chinese brands in 1Q23 will register a larger-than-average QoQ drop of 306%
TrendForce pointed out Chinese brands will stock up on TV panels ahead to time in the beginning of 2Q23 so as to prepare for the 618 promotional activities that will be held by the major domestic e-commerce companies China’s domestic demand is anticipated to recover this year as the government there has eased the pandemic-related restrictions at the end of last year TV brands are working hard to synchronize with the large-scale sales events that e-commerce companies will be putting on throughout the year Furthermore, Amazon will also be hosting its Prime Day this June as scheduled With the demand generated by various promotional activities, TrendForce forecasts that global TV shipments will grow by 87% QoQ to 4564 million units for 2Q23 This growth rate represents a new high for second-quarter result since 2015
Inventory Levels Have Fallen Across TV Supply Chain Due to Panel Makers Maintaining Low Capacity Utilization Rates for Half-Year Period
Display panel makers started to significantly scale back production in September 2022 in order to limit their losses Owing to their production cuts, panel prices managed to stop falling and rise a bit for a short two-month period However, prices stopped rising in 4Q22 with the conclusion of TV brands’ promotional activities for the year-end holidays Looking at 2022 as a whole, shipments of TV panels were heavily impacted by the sharp drop in the demand for end products This development also caused panel prices to sink below the cash cost level and thereby force panel makers to experience a considerable loss To deal with this crisis, panel makers resorted to engaging in production only when there are orders Hence, they have kept a low level of capacity utilization rate for a half-year period And, in doing so, they have not only limited their losses but also pushed inventory levels down to their usual levels across the TV supply chain
Chinese TV Brands’ Total Panel Procurement Quantity for 1Q23 Has Been Corrected Up by 10%, and Non-Mainstream Brands Are Certain to Experience Hikes in Panel Prices in February
With panel makers being disciplined in production, buyers of TV panels now anticipate that panel prices will reach the bottom very soon Recently, Chinese brands have begun to stock up in preparation for the 618 promotional activities Conversely, international (non-Chinese) brands still maintain a strict control over panel procurement quantities because of uncertainties in the US and European markets Besides Chinese brands, smaller brands and ODMs have also provided additional demand during this wave of inventory building Presently, TV panel supply as a whole is tightening, and the non-mainstream TV brands are certain to face rising panel prices in February
Among large-sized TV panels, 65-inch panels have had a fairly large negative profit margin, so they are forecasted to be the first to experience a price rebound of US$2~5 in February Turning to medium-sized TV panels, LG Display lowered production capacity for 50- and 55-inch panels at the end of last year Therefore, the supply of these products are tighter and more concentrated Their prices are forecasted to rise in February as well by US$1~3 Currently, the mainstream TV brands have yet to reach a consensus with panel makers on the subject of price hikes in February because the demand for end products is still quite weak Therefore, panel makers are more definite on raising prices on panels shipped to the non-mainstream brands for February This would be the first time that the non-mainstream brands experience panel hikes ahead of the mainstream brands
TV Panel Prices Are Expected to Rise Across the Board in March and Return to Cash Cost Level Before Busy Season
Looking ahead to March, Chinese brands will continue to stock up for the 618 promotional activities and Amazon’s Prime Day, so prices are forecasted to climb for TV panels of all sizes Prices of TV panels that are 32~55 inches in size are forecasted to rise by 3~5% MoM, and prices of 65-inch TV panels are forecasted to rise by 7~9% MoM Because of this round of significant upward adjustments, TV panel prices will likely return to the cash cost level before the busy season of 2H23
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/12/21
TrendForce’s latest research finds that TV brands’ promotional activities related to China’s Singles’ Day were helped by the steep decline in display panel prices With panel prices reaching a very low level, TV brands were able to cut their prices further so as to raise shipments of whole TV sets during the promotional period On the other hand, the major international brands have come into the second half of this year with a high level of inventory as their sales performances were weaker than expected during the first half In order to effectively consume the existing inventory, TV brands have significantly corrected down the panel procurement quantity for 2H22 As a result, TrendForce now estimates that global TV shipments in 2H22 will reach 109 million units, reflecting a YoY decline of 27% Global TV shipments during the whole 2022 are currently projected to total 202 million units, showing YoY decline of 39% This annual shipment figure represents a decade low
This year, the TV market has seen a continuous decline in shipments Fortunately, there has also been a sharp drop in prices of large-sized panels Furthermore, freight transportation costs have fallen by more than 50% Thus, TV brands have been able to vigorously promote large-sized products, and the average size of TVs has also risen by 14 inches to 56 inches
TrendForce further points out that moving into 2023, supply will remain fairly plentiful for TV panels With the chance of a substantial rally in panel prices being extremely low, brands should feel an easing of cost pressure and have more flexibility when it comes to large-scale promotional activities However, the IMF has downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2023 to 27% Moreover, the US, the Eurozone, and China as the world’s three largest regional economies will continue to experience stagnation Regarding the ongoing inflation, it has recently started to ease a bit in Europe and the US, but the major regional consumer markets on the whole will continue be under its pressure Because of these factors, TrendForce believes the growth momentum of TV shipments will be severely constrained next year Global TV shipments are currently forecasted to again register a YoY decline for 2023, falling by 14% to 199 million units
Contrasting Results for Year-End Holiday Promotions: TV Sales in China During Singles’ Day Period Fell by Nearly 10% YoY, Whereas Black Friday Period in North America Saw 13% YoY Gain Despite Economic Headwinds
TV sales in China during this year have been noticeably affected by government measures for controlling local COVID-19 outbreaks During this second half of the year, TV panel prices have fallen to a new record low, and brands have also been aggressively cutting prices so as to meet their annual shipments targets However, despite all these, TV sales in China for the Singles’ Day period still fell nearly 10% YoY Turning to the North America, TV sales there shrank by 165% YoY for 1H22 as the rapidly mounting inflationary pressure squeezed consumers’ budgets Around that same time, TV brands also reached their limit in terms of inventory accumulation To reduce the glut, brands conducted inventory check across all sections of their supply chains and made significant revisions to their procurement plans Now, in 2H22, brands have been aggressively spurring demand Full-scale promotional activities commenced on Amazon’s Prime Day, and TV sales were then ramped up to a peak on Black Friday Among brands, TCL made the largest price concession for this year, cutting the price of its 55-inch Mini LED backlit model by 70% to US$199 Other brands also energetically promoted their particular product models in the holiday sales competition On account of brands’ efforts, TV sales in North America for the Black Friday period rose by 13% YoY While China and North America have exhibited very contrasting performances for the busy season, it is also clear that TV brands on the whole have gradually lowered their inventories to a relatively optimal level after months of promotional activities across channels and corrections to panel procurements
Shipments of 8K TVs Are Projected to Drop for First Time in 2022 by 74% YoY, but Growth Will Return Next Year with Unit Figure Rising Above 500,000
Another notable development that TrendForce has observed in the TV market is the tepid performance of high-end products Due to the lack of supporting broadcasting content and high retail prices, most TV brands have not been particularly keen on pushing 8K models And after years of advocacy, Samsung remains the single dominant brand for 8K TVs with a market share almost 70% Additionally, high inflation has eaten into consumers’ budgets this year TrendForce therefore projects that 8K TV shipments will register a YoY decline for the first time in 2022, dropping by 74% to just about 400,000 units It is also worth noting that Europe as one of the main sales regions for 8K TVs could be affected by the updated EU energy consumption labelling scheme (ie, Energy Efficiency Index) Specifically, energy consumption rules have been further tightened so that some older 8K models could be banned from the region starting in March 2023 However, Samsung is planning to launch new 8K models that meet the updated energy consumption standards Moreover, display panel suppliers continue to promote 8K products so as to widen adoption among TV brands TrendForce currently forecasts that shipments of 8K TVs will surpass the 500,000 unit mark for 2023, registering a YoY growth of 20%
Shipments of WOLED TVs Are Projected to Drop by 62% YoY for 2022 and Fall Further by 27% YoY for 2023
TrendForce’s latest research on panel prices finds that LCD panel prices have plummeted In fact, the price of a 55-inch UHD LCD was 48 times lower than the price of a WOLED (white OLED) O/C panel at the end of 3Q22 With the price difference between the two panels returning to where it was at the start of 2020, selling WOLED TVs have been quite challenging for brands that do offer this kind of product Therefore, TrendForce estimates that shipments of WOLED TVs will shrink by 62% YoY to 629 million units for 2022 Assuming that LG Display does not want to sacrifice profitability, it will maintain a conservative pricing strategy when quoting WOLED panels next year Given this situation, TrendForce forecasts that WOLED TV shipments will dip again by 27% YoY for 2023
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/10/19
According to TrendForce investigations, global TV shipments in 3Q22 reached 5139 million units, growing 124% QoQ and falling 21% YoY As the shadow of rising inflation envelops the world, consumer product budgets have become seriously constrained, indirectly inhibiting the willingness to purchase TV products Entering the fourth quarter, TV brands have launched large-scale promotions in order to surge this year's shipments TV shipments in 4Q22 are expected to increase by 108% QoQ to 5696 million units, but still down 35% compared with the same period last year and a new low for the period Under the influence of factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rising inflation, and interest rate hikes, global TV shipments in 2022 are estimated at only 202 million units, falling 38% YoY, and the lowest level in the past decade
TrendForce further indicates, due to easing supply and potential oversupply in 2023, there is little possibility of a sharp rise in TV panel prices but this situation will help TV brands reduce cost pressures and increase the flexibility of large-scale promotions However, the latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on global economic growth in October pointed out that the global economic growth rate will slow to 27% next year, and the forecast does not rule out the possibility of further decline The three largest economies include the United States, Euro zone, and China will remain stagnant, which may lead to difficulty in growing TV shipments Therefore, global TV shipments are estimated to decrease by 07% YoY in 2023, reaching 201 million units
European gas prices skyrocket, consumer budgets cast aside OLED TVs
This year, TV sales in Europe posted the worst performance among major economies Due primarily to a combination of three factors including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the shutdown of nuclear power plants in France, and the inability to generate hydropower due to drought, the price of natural gas in Europe has soared nearly four times compared with the same period last year Severely hampered by household consumption budgets, the annual decline in European TV shipments this year may reach 125% Since Europe is a major sales zone for OLED TVs, even though sales of OLED TVs in North America have grown by more than 20% bolstered by promotions this year, TV demand in Europe has been sluggish, and growth in OLED TV shipments halted for the first time since TrendForce began tracking statistics in 2016 This year's OLED TV shipments are estimated to only reach 667 million units, a decrease of 06% YoY
OLED TV demand meets strong headwinds, OLED TV shipments from industry leader LG Electronics likely to decline 27% this year
This year, LG Electronics and SONY accounted for more than 80% of the OLED TV market, with a 61% share and a 21% share, respectively However, LG Electronics lost sales in Europe and shipments in North America failed to meet expectations This year, LG Electronics' OLED TV shipments fell by 27% YoY for the first time to only 404 million units In the past, OLED TVs from Philips and Panasonic accounted for more than 60% of annual shipments in Europe but, this year, the European market has been hit by severe inflation, consumer budgets have tightened, and LG Electronics has continued its 2Q22 price slashing strategy, threatening the survival of other OLED brands and hindering 2H22 OLED TV shipments from Philips and Panasonic Philips and Panasonic OLED TV shipments in 2022 are estimated to decline by 91% and 233%, respectively
Another increase in OLED TV brightness in 2023 expected to stimulate shipments
In addition to OLED TV sales not meeting expectations in Europe this year, as LCD TV panel quotations drop precipitously, the price differential between 55-inch UHD OLED and LCD TV panels has widened from a multiple of 18 to 5 within a year, helping to reduce the promotion pricing of LCD TVs by 20-25% However, this has also caused OLED TV sales to decline In addition, the brightness performance of OLED TVs is slightly inferior to that of LCD TVs, which are also high-end products with mini LEDs as backlights Therefore, LG Display will further improve the brightness of OLED TVs by replacing materials and algorithms next year with annual shipment growth estimated to increase by 73% to 716 million units
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/07/26
According to TrendForce research, global TV shipments in 2H22 reached 4517 million units, falling 5% QoQ and 68% YoY This was the first time shipments fell below a record low of 46 million units in the second quarter The economies of Europe and the United States have been hit by rising inflation and interest rate hikes In addition, China has been affected by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and has repeatedly implemented measures such as lockdowns and a dynamic zero-COVID policy These three major TV sales regions are facing different facet of economic issues, seriously affecting overall shipments and sales TV shipments from Samsung and LG, mainly sold in Europe and the United States, were revised downward by nearly 30% in 2Q22 and, with a combined market share of nearly 32%, this development sent shockwaves through on the market
TrendForce further indicates, as the world was enveloped by inflation this year, global TV shipments reached 9272 million units in 1H22, a decrease of 58% YoY Under the sustained influence of inflation and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, shrinking consumer budgets mean TV sales have missed forecasts, causing inventory levels to rise It has become a foregone conclusion that there will be no peak in the 2H22 peak season for TV shipments Therefore, TrendForce once again revises this year's TV shipments down to 202 million units, a decrease of 38% YoY Although TV brands are actively creating new promotion opportunities, if results are not as expected, continued risk of annual shipment volume being downgraded to below 200 million units cannot be rule out
Shipments from international brands fail to meet expectations, Hisense leaps into second place for LCD TVs
Both TV panel prices and shipping costs have fallen significantly this year, helping brands increase promotions in terminal markets However, rising inflation in Europe and the United States has caused a sustained rise in terminal inventory, so destocking has become TV brands’ primary goal this year The two major TV brands Samsung and LG are primarily sold in North America and Europe and have borne the brunt of market forces since they account for nearly 50% of shipments Samsung will face a battle to hold its shipments at 38 million units this year, a decrease of 8% YoY Although LG maintained marginal growth in OLED TV shipments, due to the rapid decline in demand for LCD TVs, annual shipments could not escape contraction, reaching 2574 million units, a decrease of 116% YoY, and dropping LG’s LCD TV shipments to fourth place for the first time
Hisense's sub-brand Vidda focuses on cost-effective products and has successfully gained favor with young and frugal bourgeoisie in the Chinese market Hisense's shipments this year are estimated to reach 2276 million units, an annual increase of 43% Not only is Hisense the only brand to grow among the five major brands, it has for the first time, simultaneously taken second place in LCD TV shipments TCL has actively cultivated overseas markets in recent years and, currently, its proportion of export sales has reached 75% However, sluggish demand in Europe and the United States has indirectly affected TCL's shipments to a tune of 218 million units this year, a decrease of 36% YoY Although Xiaomi's domestic market share is being gradually eroded by Vidda, the company is fortunate that demand in the Indian market has recovered this year, acting as a backstop for this year's shipments to remain flat, reaching 1306 million units
OLED TV market squeezed by falling LCD TV panel pricing, 2022 growth rate to contract to 78%
Terminal TV sales were weak this year but panel manufacturers continue to invest in new production capacity, resulting in an expansion of the supply/demand glut ratio of TV panels and whole devices to 35%, the most severe oversupply in the past five years As a result, the price of LCD TV panels has been in a sustained decline since 2H21 This year's decline has caused LCD TV prices to not only fall below the lows of 2019, but also blow through cash costs TrendForce forecasts LCD TV shipments at approximately 195 million units this year, down 41% YoY
On the other hand, LG Display, a major supplier of OLED TVs, maintained its quotations through product specification upgrades this year but the price gap between OLED and LCD TV panels continued to widen In terms of the price of 55-inch UHD panels, the price differential between the two has expanded from a multiple of 18 to 48 this year, which not only caused Samsung to delay its 2022 mass production schedule, but also lead to the annual growth rate of OLED TVs contracting to single digits at 78% and 723 million units LG has a market share of 58% in OLED TVs and SONY maintains a 20% share Ultimately, Samsung delayed the launch of its white OLED TVs for a year With only QD OLEDs acting as a backstop this year, the company’s market share reached 6%
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
