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2023/03/09
The market for third-generation (compound) semiconductors encompasses products based on silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) In particular, SiC products account for about 80% of the total market value As a semiconductor material, SiC is suitable for applications that require high voltages and high current levels Therefore, the adoption of SiC power devices will further improve the efficiency of electric vehicles and renewable energy systems According to TrendForce’s latest survey of the market for third-generation semiconductors, chipmakers onsemi and Infineon have respectively formed collaborative relationships with carmakers and developers of energy solutions With the cooperation among them becoming more visible, TrendForce projects that the value of the global market for SiC power devices will reach US$228 billion in 2023, reflecting a YoY growth of 414%
TrendForce points out that the two largest application segments within the market for SiC power devices are electric vehicles and renewable energy The value of the market for SiC power devices used in electric vehicles came to US$109 billion in 2022, comprising around 674% of the value of the entire market for SiC power devices in the same year As for SiC power devices related to renewable energy applications, their market value came to US$210 million in 2022, accounting for around 131% of the total Regarding the collaborations between suppliers for SiC power devices and carmakers, onsemi, and Volkswagen have entered into a strategic agreement under which the former will provide the latter with its EliteSiC 1200V power modules for the main traction inverter Kia has also adopted the EliteSiC series for its latest electric compact crossover SUV named EV6 GT Wolfspeed, which is another leading specialist in third-generation semiconductors, has further strengthened its partnership with the major carmaker Mercedes-Benz as well Both parties have signed an agreement under which Wolfspeed will supply SiC power devices used in the electric vehicles developed by Mercedes-Benz
In the area of renewable energy, Onsemi has begun collaborating with Ampt in the provisioning of power semiconductor devices for solar photovoltaic and energy storage systems Specifically, Ampt will be adopting Onsemi’s SiC MOSFET for its DC string optimizers Likewise, Taiwan-based Delta Electronics has adopted Infineon’s CoolSiC for its bi-directional inverters that can serve as a hybrid three-in-one system for the integration of solar photovoltaics, energy storage, and charging of electric vehicles US-based hydrogen platform developer Bloom Energy has also selected offerings under the CoolSiC series to further improve the efficiency of its fuel cell system and electrolyzer
SiC substrate not only accounts for up to 49% of the cost of a SiC power device but also determines the product quality Currently, Wolfspeed is recognized for having a market share of more than 60% for SiC substrates Turning to other players, Infineon has recently secured a long-term supply agreement with Resonac (formerly Showa Denko) Under this agreement, Resonac will first supply mostly 6-inch SiC materials to Infineon; and then, Resonac will support Infineon’s transition to 8-inch Also, STMicroelectronics (ST) has expanded its cooperation with Soitec Going forward, ST will use Soitec’s SmartSiC technology to manufacture 8-inch SiC substrates Regarding the growth of the production capacity for SiC substrates, Wolfspeed currently has a fab for producing 8-inch SiC substrates and plans to build another fab for 8-inch SiC power devices in Germany ZF Group is a joint investor in the planned German fab and will be committing hundreds of millions of US dollars
Currently, semiconductor companies around the world are highly attentive to the size transition of SiC substrates With Wolfspeed being the first to activate production capacity for 8-inch SiC substrates, other suppliers will follow suit and vigorously pursue collaborations with the participants in both the upstream and downstream Hence, TrendForce forecasts that the value of the global market for SiC power devices will climb to around US$533 billion in 2026 Electric vehicles and renewable energy will remain the two largest application segments at that time The value of the market for SiC power devices used in electric vehicles is forecasted to rise to US$398 billion in 2026, with the CAGR for the 2023~2026 period coming to around 38% As for SiC power devices used in renewable energy systems, their market value is forecasted to increase at a CAGR of about 19% for the 2023~2026 period to reach US$410 million
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/01/06
The effect of the low season, the planned scale-back of capital expenditure on the part of enterprises, and the ongoing slump in the wider consumer electronics market are going to constrain the demand for power management ICs during 1H23 On the supply side, Texas Instruments (TI) as the leading supplier for power management ICs will be activating the newly added production capacity at its production sites RFAB2 and LFAB in the same period Given this circumstance, TrendForce projects that the global production capacity for power management ICs will increase by 47% YoY for 1H23 In the market for power management ICs, falling demand for products belonging to consumer electronics, networking devices, and industrial equipment continues to generate downward pressure on prices Consequently, quotes for power management IC orders are projected to register a sequential drop of 5~10% during 1H23 Conversely, demand remains stable for automotive products thanks to the trend of vehicle electrification Even though the weakening of the wider economy is causing uncertainties across the whole automotive market, prices are not expected to fluctuate significantly because of buyers and sellers of automotive products have mostly established long-term partnerships Therefore, the demand coming from the automotive market is going to emerge as the only major driving force behind sales of power management ICs
Major IDMs Control 63% of Power Management IC Market
Suppliers for power management ICs are diverse and include the major international IDMs as well as fabless IC design companies Suppliers that are IDMs include TI, ADI, Infineon, Renesas, Onsemi (onsemi), STMicroelectronics (ST), and NXP Suppliers that are fabless IC design companies include Qualcomm, MPS, MediaTek, Anpec, GMT, Leadtrend, Weltrend, Silergy, BPS, and SG Micro By shipment market share, IDMs collectively control 63% of the global market for power management ICs; and among them, TI is the leader with a 22% global market share TI has the advantages of having a diverse range of offerings, a consistently high product quality, and an ample amount of production capacity Thus, it exerts an enormous influence over the global power management IC market Looking at the general price trend of power management ICs in 2022, IDMs were able to further push up the ASP in response to rising inflation Conversely, quotes from fabless IC design companies were first to show a weakening trend
Suppliers Are Cutting Prices to Drive Sales of Power Management ICs for Consumer Electronics; Automotive Products and Industrial Equipment Are the Only Applications That Exhibit Stable Demand
TrendForce points out that prices of power management ICs for consumer electronics (eg, laptop computers, tablets, TVs, and smartphones) began to drop in 3Q22, with the QoQ decline coming to 3~10% In 4Q22, prices fell by another 5~10% QoQ for a wide range of consumer power management ICs (eg, those related to AC-DC, DC-DC, LDO, buck, boost, PWM, and battery charger) Besides this development, demand also began to weaken for power management ICs used in networking devices and most kinds of industrial equipment The only applications that still exhibited stable demand were a very few specific kinds of industrial equipment (eg, military hardware) and automotive products At that time, order visibility for these application was already extended to 2Q23 And there were no notable attempts to drive sales of related power management ICs through price cutting
However, TrendForce also notes that IDMs together hold a market share of more than 83% for power management ICs embedded in industrial equipment and automotive products Fabless IC design companies for the most part still have difficulties in penetrating into these particular market segments, but their efforts have been aggressive as the overall demand for consumer electronics remains depressed Currently, fabless IC design houses are working hard to get their new automotive and industrial power management ICs qualified as soon as possible
Regarding the lead time for power management IC orders, TrendForce’s latest investigation finds that fabless IC design houses now have an average lead time of 12~28 weeks Moreover, existing stock is so large for some models of power management ICs that fabless IC design houses can begin shipments right after receiving the incoming order Turning to IDMs, they still mostly have a longer lead time For power management ICs belonging to non-automotive applications, IDMs have a lead time of 20~40 weeks For power management ICs belonging to automotive applications, IDMs have a lead time of more than 32 weeks On the whole, orders are still in the allocation status for automotive power management ICs that come from very few suppliers and have a drawn-out process for chip manufacturing, module assembly, and qualification
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/10/12
Current US sanctions on China have extended their reach to strike at HPC and sectors such as aerospace, automotive market, and military industry TrendForce indicates, the market for high-end computing chips (including CPU, GPU, etc) has borne the brunt of these restrictions at this stage, while those providing related storage such as DRAM and NAND Flash also face potential supply disruption At present, this not only includes domestic companies in mainland China but also extends to related US-based suppliers Among them, server companies that rely on high-intensity computing will face greater scrutiny
Impact analysis on server terminal shipments
In terms of server terminal shipments, since relevant component suppliers have not yet been able to confirm whether services provided by the four major cloud service providers (CSPs) in China, Baidu, ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent, involve military use, before CSPs sign MOUs (memoranda of understanding), component manufacturers may temporarily delay shipments to the Chinese market However, TrendForce believes, due to the fact that current CSP buyers’ component inventories remain sufficient, the short-term impact on global server market shipment performance is relatively low and long-term impact depends on the evolution of the US Department of Commerce's rules
Huawei and Sugon, two companies that have received attention at this stage due to the US ban, have previously withdrawn from the x86 server market and turned into cloud business providers and whole server delivery has been transferred to other domestic OEMs and outsourced computing power leasing, so as not to be affected by sanctions However, due to the previous CPU ban, Sugon has turned to AMD to obtain authorization for localized chips, which may be significantly curtailed by this ban In 2022, Sugon's market share in the overall server market will be approximately 23% and 85% of the Chinese market
TrendForce believes, it cannot be ruled out that relevant Chinese OEMs may have server products that may be rendered to government supercomputing centers in the future Inspur, H3C, and Lenovo will face more exacting future scrutiny and, if consequences intensify, the mainland Chinese industrial chain may feel direct effects Although commercial servers are not currently on the list of directly restricted items, if friction between the United States and China intensifies in the future, it cannot be ruled out that the US Department of Commerce will add more potentially risky Chinese server OEMs and CSPs onto the UVL list If certification cannot be realized within 60 days of being included in the UVL list, these entities will be included on the entity list The worst case scenario will be a future trend of negative growth in Chinese server demand
Since the restrictions enumerated in this ban are primarily concentrated in the HPC field, the greatest factor affecting Sugon is the company largely providing server OEM to government departments including in supercomputers, military aerospace, and government server farms At present, there are 8 national-level supercomputing centers in mainland China and the supercomputer located in the center of Wuxi is the headquarters of China's self-developed chips including the self-developed Sunway TaihuLight As the US Department of Commerce continues to strengthen its sanctions, China's supercomputing technology and domestic research capabilities will be severely damaged in the future
Impact analysis on GPU and CPU sectors
At present, companies utilizing high-end graphics cards are primarily concentrated in the HPC sector In terms of CSPs, Alibaba and Baidu are the largest companies in mainland China These two CSP companies account for up to 60% of the market share of GPU usage in China Before the previous ban at the end of August, Chinese CSP operators had to submit purchase applications before procurement but they could not apply at all after the ban However, based on the premise that buyer inventory levels on hand remain high and the supply of goods through distribution channels is sufficient, no effect on demand is forecast until 1H23 Nonetheless, it will be a challenge in the long-term Since the ban expressly prohibits supercomputing center applications such as HPC, TrendForce assesses that GPU servers used by supercomputing centers will be directly affected, which accounts for up to 30% of China's GPU market
In terms of chip computing performance control, ECCNs 3A090 and 4A090 are newly added sanctioned items and chips with a total processing performance of more than 4,800 (inclusive) calculated by TOPS will be restricted GPUs are usually used to directly assist in performing complex operations Basically, NVIDIA's A100 PCIe Gen4 and AMD's MI250 OAM Module exceed the 4,800 limit With new high computing performance products restricted in the future, development of server acceleration computing in China will take a hit
However, the computing performance of most server CPU products is generally lower than the provisions of the ban Only Chinese-made chips such as Tianjin Haiguang face direct restrictions and other CPUs such as Intel and AMD servers will not be subject to prohibition At this stage, Intel and AMD will sign MOUs with relevant mainland Chinese manufacturers to ensure that related products cannot be used in military and supercomputing fields before shipment In today's server CPUs, the computing performance of the commonly used Intel Ice Lake CPU series does not reach the limit imposed by US sanctions
Impact analysis on the memory sector
At present, Samsung and SK hynix have also suspended their supply of product to Sugon If Sugon can clarify procured memory is not used for supercomputing, domestic server products, etc, the parties will be able to reach a consensus for shipment In the long run, Korean companies are evaluating whether they need a written commitment from each customer to disavow using purchasing memory products in supercomputers Therefore, some memory shipments may be affected before documents are signed The industry generally believes that market inventory remains relatively abundant and there will be no substantial damage to the market in the short term As far as SSD is concerned, the greatest utilization remains in the category of AI/DL (Deep Learning), since most of the data trained from DL must be stored in faster and more convenient SSDs for use in inference scenarios If the suspension of shipments caused by the current ban cannot be rectified by relevant buyer agreements, the development of Chinese server manufacturers in related AI/DL fields may be hamstrung and a calamitous decline in the market penetration rate of enterprise SSDs from international manufacturers cannot be ruled out
Impact analysis on the networking sector
There are three reasons for a relatively minor impact assessment on the well-connected suppliers in the networking sector First, there are numerous networking suppliers and many of them are in China Since the demand for key components is relatively small, Chinese suppliers should be able to keep up Second, the mainstream process in this field is a mature process and future expansion is less restricted Third, from the perspective of supplier shipments, after foundry assembly, packaging, and testing, there are multiple distribution channels for the circulation of the final product and it will be difficult to determine whether terminals are military use However, from the perspective of long-term impact, there is a high probability that Chinese manufacturers will give priority to China's local supply chain in the future to ensure future supply This move will undoubtedly deepen the resistance of other suppliers' shipments to China, so it is necessary to open up multiple shipping channels to stabilize market share
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/09/07
According to the latest TrendForce statistics, revenue of the top ten global IC design houses reached US$3956 billion in 2Q22, growing 32% YoY Growth was primarily driven by demand for data centers, networking, IoT, and high-end product portfolios AMD achieved synergy through mergers and acquisitions In addition to climbing to third place, the company also posted the highest annual revenue growth rate in 2Q22 at 70%
Qualcomm continues in the No 1 position worldwide, exhibiting growth in the mobile phone, RF front-end, automotive, and IoT sectors Sales of mid/low-end mobile phone APs were weak but demand for high-end mobile phone APs was relatively stable Company revenue reached US$938 billion, or 45% growth YoY NVIDIA benefitted from expanded application of GPUs in data centers to expand this product category’s revenue share past the 50% mark to 535%, making up for the 13% YoY slump in its game application business, bringing total revenue to US$709 billion, though annual growth rate slowed to 21% AMD reorganized its business after the addition of Xilinx and Pensando The company’s embedded division revenue increased by 2,228% YoY In addition, its data center department also made a considerable contribution AMD posted revenue of US$655 billion, achieving 70% growth YoY, highest amongst the top ten Broadcom's sales performance in semiconductor solutions remained solid and demand for cloud services, data centers, and networking is quite strong The company’s purchase order backlog is still increasing with 2Q22 revenue reaching US$649 billion, an annual growth rate of 31%
In terms of Taiwanese players, MediaTek maintained growth in the mobile phone, smart edge, and power IC sectors, but was stifled by sluggish sales of Chinese-branded mobile phones Revenue came in at US$529 billion, increasing 18% YoY Novatek, whose products mainly consist of display driver ICs, was impacted by declining terminal demand for panels and consumer products, its revenue falling to US$107 billion, or a decline of 12% YoY Novatek is one of two companies on the top ten ranking posting a revenue downtrend in 2Q22 Realtek's networking product portfolio performed well, Wi-Fi demand remained stable, but the company was still affected by weakness in the consumer and computer markets Company revenue was US$104 billion, and annual growth rate slowed to 12%
Marvell's data center product expansion was successful, and the company’s revenue has increased quarterly for nine consecutive quarters 2Q22 revenue reached US$149 billion, or an increase of 50% YoY CIS revenue accounts for 80% of Will Semiconductor's semiconductor design business and 44% is used in smartphones Battered by China's lockdowns and poor mobile phone market conditions, total revenue fell to US$690 million, a decline of 16% YoY and greatest revenue drop among the top ten The company’s inventory even rose 108% YoY, again foremost among ranked companies Synaptics returned to the No 10 spot after a several quarter absence In addition to contributions from the acquisition of DSP Group, the company also focused on the development of a high-end product portfolio including automotive TDDI, Wireless Devices, VR, and Video Interface, pushing IoT business revenue to a 70% share, with revenue reaching US$480 million, for an annual growth of 45%
TrendForce indicates, although the majority of IC design houses maintained annual revenue growth in 2Q22, due to overall economic uncertainty and poor consumer electronics market conditions, growth rates have slowed significantly and high inventory levels have gradually accumulated Moving into 2H22, downstream inventory has not been effectively eliminated IC design houses will have difficulties maintaining revenue growth due to a high preceding base period and poor market conditions Consumer IC products also need several quarters to regulate day sales of inventory and carry out destocking The annual growth rate of inventory must guard against again widening the gap with the annual growth rate of revenue and this will become a challenge for IC design houses testing their strategies for new product development, production planning, and product sales
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/06/16
According to TrendForce, market conditions in 1H22 were chaotic and there was disparate demand for chips of varying functionality Given the global development of electronic devices and power systems, overall demand for power management ICs (PMIC) is still relatively good PMICs are used in consumer electronics, communications, computing, industrial control, automotive and other fields In 2H22, supply and demand gradually diverged and demand for automotive Switching Regulators, Multi Channel PMICs was strongest
According to TrendForce, there are various specifications and types of PMICs, including Linear Regulators, etc Even usage scenario dependent products such as Battery Charging & Management, Voltage References, and USB Power Delivery ICs all fall into this category
In the field of consumer electronics, it was true that demand for linear regulators and switch regulators with relatively simple functions and structures in the panel, home appliance, and consumer notebook markets fell in 1H22 and orders are even forecast to be revised down by 15-30% However, multi channel PMICs with slightly longer lead times will experience price competition pressure in 2H22 as OEMs and ODMs control inventory to a level of less than 2 months As for the industrial control and automotive markets, these fields have always been vital battlegrounds ripe for conquest and demand higher requirements for PMIC voltage accuracy, temperature control, and reliability With the trend toward Industry 50 and automotive electrification, product pricing will maintain strength into 2H22 but this field is mostly dominated by IDM players that have been in the market for decades such as Texas Instruments (TI), Infineon, Analog Devices (ADI), STMicroelectronics (ST), ON Semiconductor (onsemi), etc, while the proportion of small and medium-sized Fabless operators is relatively low
Looking at current delivery status, from the perspective of IDMs with a PMIC market share of more than 61%, due to comprehensive product portfolios, stable quality, and irreplaceability coupled with strong demand for production capacity, current lead time for new orders is still long, with average lead time for switch regulators at 36 to 46 weeks and 40 to 50 weeks for multi channel PMICs However, some existing orders with an original lead time of more than 52 weeks can be shipped 4 to 16 weeks earlier In addition, from the perspective of small and medium-sized Fabless operators, since they are not on the level of IDM manufacturers in terms of product specifications and application areas, lead time is generally shorter than that of large IDM manufacturers, usually no more than 28 weeks
TrendForce indicates, during the major shortages of the past year, Fabless and IDM players shared in the dividends provided by shortage induced price hikes However, as wafer production capacity expands moderately and lead times are gradually normalized, dealers, agents, and small and medium-sized Fabless operators that originally increased their prices by 20-40% due to tight supply have naturally been under pressure to moderate pricing due to rapid accumulation of inventory Therefore, in various application fields in 2H22, Approved Vendor List (AVL) Preferred vendors will continue to maintain a balanced supply and demand status while Non-Preferred vendors with a single product type and limited application fields may need to reduce prices to ensure volume and sell inventory However, in general, demand for PMICs as a subset of all IC products is still relatively stable in 2H22
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively
