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Keyword：Eric Chang，
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2016/11/07
China’s xEV (plug-in) vehicle market through 2016 has been roiled by news of government fining auto makers for falsely claiming subsidies Though the scandal has reduced some of the expansionary momentum in the Chinese plug-in vehicle market, sales are expected to grow significantly in this year’s fourth quarter because buyers are spurred by the further reduction of purchase subsidies next year
According to the global market research firm TrendForce, xEV sales in China from January to September of 2016 came to nearly 350,000 units, surpassing last year’s annual total Furthermore, xEV sales in China for the entire 2016 are estimated to reach 550,000 units, contributing significantly to the annual global sales of nearly one million units
“For both 2014 and 2015, xEV sales in China grew by more 300% annually,” said Eric Chang, TrendForce automotive electronics analyst “China has become the largest xEV market in the world, not only surpassing Japan and the US but also accounting for over half of the global sales in 2015 The xEV industry will continue to depend on China as the engine of sales growth”
While the outlook of China’s market remains positive, Chang noted that growth are being dampened by the government’s policy of gradually reducing purchasing subsidies on a yearly basis from 2016 onward Furthermore, the government at the start of this year launched a crackdown on subsidy frauds committed by the supposed domestic xEV manufacturers
“Sales of passenger vehicles in China’s xEV market will continue to expand rapidly despite future subsidy cuts,” said Chang “On the other hand, sales commercial vehicles are going to be impacted by the subsidy fraud cases as the government in response has raised certification requirement for domestic xEV manufacturers Thus, sales of buses and other commercial transport vehicles in China’s xEV market may fall in 2017”
With the lowering of the subsidy next year, TrendForce expects xEV demand in China will concentrate in the fourth quarter Moreover, the country’s total xEV sales for 2016 are expected to arrive around 550,000 units mainly due to the rapid growth of the domestic passenger xEV market
The US and Japan are also witnessing steady growth in xEV sales during 2016 Following the slump of 2015, these two regional markets managed to make a sharp turnaround Annual xEV sales in the US are expected to grow to nearly 150,000 units in 2016 due to the hot demand for Tesla’s Model S and Model X With China leading the market, TrendForce estimates that sales of xEVs worldwide for 2016 will exceed 950,000 units
2016/01/12
Automotive technology has been a growing highlight of the annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in the past few years, and this year is no exception Eric Chang, automotive electronics analyst for TrendForce, said that the auto industry is driven by the race to develop autonomous driving technology and plug-in vehicles Future vehicles will therefore incorporate intelligent features and fulfill the zero emission requirement Moreover, the emergence of new sensor technologies will transform input/output interfaces of a vehicle’s infotainment system New infotainment solutions will thus be radically different from the ones used by the traditional vehicles as well In sum, Chang expects cars to continue to have a huge presence in the next CES event
There are two major takeaways from the automotive technology exhibitions at this year’s CES:
Bars are raised for displays and computer processors used in vehicles as international auto companies make steady progress on self-driving cars
Chang noted that international auto companies have made their self-driving cars more functionally practical for consumers as they hustle to bring these vehicles to the market More intuitive user interfaces (UI), for instance, indirectly contribute to the rising demand for more and larger display screens in vehicles The reliability of autonomous driving technology has also improved in relation to the increasing capabilities of computer processors At this year’s CES, processor manufacturer Nvidia unveiled a supercomputer for cars Touted as a “total solution” for autonomous vehicles, Nvidia’s supercomputer taps into the power of cloud computing to provide more precise information on a vehicle’s surroundings as well as more accurate predictive modelling
During the event, major auto makers and startups vied to be the exhibitor with the most exciting initiative or breakthrough in automotive technology BMW introduced its i8 concept car, which replaces traditional rear- and side-view mirrors with high-resolution cameras In addition to the “mirror-less” innovation, the i8 features the AirTouch gesture control system that improves driving experience and safety US auto maker Ford announced that the company is partnering up with Google to develop autonomous vehicle and showed off the progress it has made with Amazon in connecting future smart cars with smart homes
Among the plug-in vehicles shown at the CES, GM’s Chevrolet Bolt EV created the most electrifying presence with its economic pricing and a mapping system that is supported by onboard cameras Another notable plug-in vehicle was Volkswagen’s BUDD-e This concept car comes with a new connectivity platform that opens up new possibilities related to the commercial uses for next-generation vehicles
New vehicle startup companies make a splash with models that integrate plug-in vehicles with self-driving technology
Chang furthermore noted that plug-in vehicles represented another major theme in the automotive technology exhibitions at CES “The synergy of autonomous vehicle technology and plug-in vehicles will be a powerful force in the transformation of how passenger vehicles are used in the future,” said Chang While most auto companies in the short term will release automated driving systems that primarily assist drivers in operating their vehicles, newly emerged startups such as Faraday Future have developed plug-in vehicles featuring autonomous vehicle technology The mobility solutions presented by these startups during the CES emphasized performances that could rival Tesla’s models and fully-integrated self-driving capability
2015/11/17
Global sales of xEVs (x-electric vehicles) have soared in 2015 owing to strong market demand in China and Europe The latest report from global market research firm TrendForce reveals that worldwide sales of xEVs for the first three quarters of this year reached 330,000 units, up 31% year on year This year’s total sales are expected exceed 450,000 units, and next year’s sales may even achieve a historic high of more than 700,000 units
“Thanks to China and Europe’s leadership, the global xEV market has been booming this year,” said Eric Chang, TrendForce automotive electronics analyst “The chief factor behind the accelerated pace of development is the subsidies provided by governments to encourage purchases China furthermore has become the world’s largest xEV market in 2015”
Here are some important trends to watch out for in next year’s xEV market:
Strong sales of xEVs will continue as fuel vehicles begin their inevitable exit from the market
The replacement of fuel vehicles by xEVs is certain as countries around the world implement tighter emission control standards in response to worsening smog problems in their urban areas Moreover, xEVs with intelligent features will constitute a well-defined niche segment within the overall xEV market Therefore, the global xEV market in 2016 will enjoy the same robust growth as in previous years
China and Europe will continue to encourage purchases with various subsidy programs
China and Europe have been the growth drivers in the 2015 xEV market because the governments there offer generous incentives to consumers such as rebates, tax credit and other forms of subsidies New business models for personal transportation have also emerged this year, making xEVs more suited for everyday use In sum, government subsidies and business innovations are the two major factors that will encourage the adoption of xEVs
Industries related to charging facilities will further expand
Markets related to xEV parts and periphery products have seen rapid development corresponding to the rising vehicle sales TrendForce expects industries participating in production of xEVs and charging equipment to enter a high-growth period in the next 2~3 years, especially for suppliers of charging piles, charging connectors and energy storage systems for vehicles
Autonomous driving emerges as a major development trend
The development of xEVs will accelerate and be in tandem with the development of autonomous driving technologies Electric vehicles with autonomous driving capabilities can be used to transport people in a closed circuit or on a fixed route Mass transportation services can adopt these “smart” xEVs to help lower the risk of accidents Furthermore, these vehicles are likely to become the ideal transportation tool in countries with an aging population
2015/08/26
The emergence of car sharing services began with the founding of Zipcar in 1999 Since then, car sharing has taken off across the world due to its flexibility when compared with traditional car rental and carpooling services Some well-known car sharing operations include Autolib, a French-based venture that has been expanding aggressively, and the popular micro-transportation program in Hangzhou, China By 2016, the global car sharing market is expected to exceed 15 million members with over 260,000 vehicles in service, according to Topology Research Institute (TRI), a division of TrendForce A car share vehicle can replace up to 9~13 private vehicles, and with this as a basis, TrendForce further estimates that car sharing will be able to replace 234~338 million private vehicles worldwide by 2016 These preliminary projections indicate steady demand growth for this transportation solution in the near future
“The car sharing market witnessed amazing growth in membership and vehicles in 2014, with Europe and Asia as the main growth drivers,” said Eric Chang automotive electronics analyst at TrendForce Europe accounts for about half of the global market since car sharing originated there More importantly, the development of European car sharing programs incorporate xEVs (plug-in vehicles), and this fits into the environmental directives of numerous countries in the region As for Asia’s car sharing market, the growth momentum primary comes from China because the country’s public transportation networks have yet to reach the outer edges of cities and towns Furthermore, local governments have made the application of vehicle license plates costly and difficult in recent years, turning car sharing into the best alternative to buying cars for Chinese citizens
“Car sharing offers many benefits to users,” said Chang “It is more convenient than commuting via public transports and has greater time flexibility versus traditional car rental services Moreover, users do not have to worry about taxes and maintenance costs, and they can return vehicles at different locations On the whole, car sharing has significant cost-performance advantage over other transportation methods, including carpooling”
2015/06/25
Chinese and Taiwanese tech companies are currently making an impact on the electric scooter (e-scooter) market Taiwan-based e-scooter manufacturer Gogoro received much praise for its Smartscooter at this year’s International CES Since its reveal, the Smartscooter has captured the public’s attention with its innovative design, use of smart technologies and distinct business model China-based rival manufacturer Niu on the other hand has launched its N1 e-scooter with the help of electronics giant Panasonic and global auto part supplier Bosch
“Chinese and Taiwanese e-scooter companies are currently rolling out competing products that feature smart technologies,” said Eric Chang, analyst for Topology Research Institute (TRI), a division of TrendForce “In order to achieve concrete results in the market, they must also expand the supporting infrastructures and create viable business models”
According to Chang, Taiwan’s e-scooter market is still at its infancy, and e-scooters’ high unit prices discourage consumers from buying them The government has addressed this issue by introducing subsidy programs to encourage the adoption of e-scooters on the island Moreover, measures by the local governments, such as additional financial assistance and quota scheme, have been instrumental to increasing sales figures in cities and counties
China, on the other hand, has a very fragmented market A standard for e-scooters have yet to be specified in the country and the differentiation between e-scooter and e-bike (electric bicycle) is rather vague The existing Chinese manufacturers currently have a dominant position in the domestic market as the Chinese government has attempted to consolidate the industry by setting up entry barriers Thus, the remaining domestic e-scooter makers all have a solid foundation While China’s e-scooter market is vast, Taiwanese companies may find themselves entering the scene a bit too late
“Smart technologies offer an opportunity for e-scooter companies to achieve a market breakthrough,” said Chang, “so Chinese and Taiwanese companies share the same ambition of developing a product that attracts consumers with new application services”
Before smart e-scooters can take off in sales, there are two challenges ahead for manufacturers besides adding attention-grabbing features to their respective products
The first challenge involves the massive expansion of the battery-swap station network, and installing these stations also requires additional planning within the realm of public infrastructure Gogoro, for instance, has a long way to go in terms of achieving the target of at least one station per 25 square kilometers within a densely populated area
The second one is to find the right pricing strategy and business model During the initial phase of the product launch, e-scooter companies can consider creating a rental program that allows users to rent a scooter at one location and drop it off at another This would cultivate product adoption among consumers At the same time, the customer feedback from the rental program will help manufacturers build their next-generation products
