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keyword:Duff Lu.15 result(s)

Press Releases
HEVs Already an International Trend, With China's Electric Cars Moving Towards Diversification, Says TrendForce



Thanks to China's new point-based quota system for new energy vehicles and the enlarging scale of European, American and Japanese markets, opportunities in the HEV market have attracted much interest  EnergyTrend , a division of  TrendForce , predicts that global HEV market share will reach 5% in 2019, whereas that for pure electric vehicles will stand at only 2% “The Chinese government announced a new point-based quota system in June that ascribes a far greater significance to HEVs” says TrendForce Senior Research Manager Duff Lu “HEVs were originally just seen as traditional vehicles in China and were not eligible items for credit accumulation But under the new system, HEVs now possess market value in the form of points On the other hand, Volkswagen has also declared that it will be introducing HEVs among its mainstream models in 2020, allowing the cell industry to extend its grasp beyond mid-high end cars and towards a wider public audience While electric vehicles still have to overcome the infrastructure hurdle of populating an environment with charging stations, an affordable array of HEVs have already been introduced in the traditional vehicle sector” HEVs can currently be divided into two major categories: Mild/micro hybrid vehicles, mainly European; and strong hybrid vehicles, mainly led by Japanese car manufacturers An examination of developments in various countries reveals that the HEV market is mainly driven by the fact that emission laws are growing stricter by the year For 48V mild hybrid vehicles, we see Europe en route to impose full-scale a strict limit of 95g/km for carbon dioxide emissions from 2020 to 2021, especially on the widely sold, mainstream intermediates Due to Europe being rather late in adopting HEVs and being at a disadvantage in terms of patents and costs, they've turned to micro/mild hybrid designs, which are predominantly gasoline cars with fewer modifications, in order to meet the most basic demands of emission standards while keeping the cost of power system modification under control HEV power systems are already entering mainstream models Meanwhile, Japan focuses on full hybrid vehicles Japan will be forming a market mainly consisting of products from strong hybrid vehicles to plug-in HEVs (PHEVs), thanks to having begun development early and allowing total car cost to remain in the middle ranges Furthermore, Japanese car manufacturers have slowly turned from NiMH batteries to Lithium batteries amid falling battery prices The improvement in whole system of charging stations also incentivized the partial introduction of strong hybrid systems into PHEVs Fuel-saving rates have also attracted the interest of China in recent years, with the Chinese government planning to reduce average fuel consumption from 69 to 5 L/100km in 2015-2020, and new energy vehicles will become a key to satisfying these demands on fuel consumption and emissions China has long been developing new energy vehicles, their interest guided by subsidies and mainly centered on pure electric vehicles TrendForce thinks that HEVs will become the main car model in European, American and Japanese markets, with growth speed surpassing that of pure electric cars Whether China may be able to catch the HEV trend with its new social credit system will also be worth observing in 2019-2020 HEVs Cell Usage Grown by Nearly 50%, with Car Manufacturers Prioritizing Lithium Batteries Looking at battery systems, although some car manufacturers have already developed 12V or 48V micro hybrid systems, the 48V design is further able to support mild hybrid systems Battery designs reserve the 12V battery for use and switch to 48V batteries when loads increase, due to AC compressors, for instance HEVs may use lead-acid batteries and lithium batteries for voltage systems over 12V, with lead-acid batteries being the cheaper but more space-consuming option TrendForce observes that most car manufacturers will prioritize the usage of Lithium batteries for voltage systems over 12V to accomplish light-weight designs As HEVs continue to grow, total HEV battery usage (Lithium and NiMH batteries; 12V SLA batteries are not included) will grow to 1068GWh, a growth of 49% YoY

Press Releases
Lithium Batteries Increasingly Used as UPSs in Datacenters Due to High Cost-Performance Ratio, Says TrendForce



As the datacenter market continues to grow, UPS demand receives a boost According to statistics by  EnergyTrend  , a division of  TrendForce  , sealed lead acid (SLA) batteries remain the most widely used UPSs for datacenters Yet lithium batteries possess advantages such as a long lifespan, quick charge/discharge speeds and a small volume, and are poised to replace SLA batteries in the future By 2019, lithium batteries comprise 12% of batteries used in datacenters This percentage is predicted to grow to 16% in 2020 Lithium Batteries Have a Cost Advantage Compared to Lead-Acid Batteries TrendForce points out that sealed lead-acid (SLA) batteries have been here for a hundred years, and were already widely used in a variety of energy storage systems Disregarding new energy vehicles, the market scale for lead-acid batteries has already exceeded 380 GWh in 2019, forming 92% of batteries used in starting, lighting and ignition (SLI) and 75% in UPS applications The remaining applications mostly go to NiMH batteries or lithium batteries due to product size constraints Although SLA batteries possess advantages such as developmental maturity and low initial acquisition costs, its shallow-discharging nature and the need for more frequent maintenance remain difficult issues By comparison, lithium batteries have already entered mass production thanks to the rapid expansion of new energy vehicles Prices and product technology have also become optimized as more and more suppliers enter the game Lithium batteries have a chance to expand into many more fields of application due to various factors, whether energy density, charge/discharge speeds or maturation of usage Judging by total costs of ownership (TCO), SLA batteries often lose their initial cost advantages in the long run, since lithium batteries have a longer lifetime and a deeper depth of discharge, whereas SLA batteries require the installation of additional generators due to battery life considerations Furthermore, lithium battery solutions can effectively shrink the sizes of UPSs, and have thus gradually received wider adoption by datacenters TrendForce predicts that as lithium batteries increase in cost-performance ratio, they will be introduced into UPSs in swiftly increasing proportion The Future of Datacenter UPS is 'Shared' As the server industry develops, data storage configurations in datacenters will go from distributed to shared, and this transformation trend will also turn individual, distributed UPSs in the system into a shared network Besides acting as providers of backup power for datacenters and preserving the integrity and supporting continual transmission of data, the UPSs of large datacenters under the future grid structure will be able to form an emergency electrical system, providing continual power for the whole grid in the event of a grid overload  Although energy storage systems in the grid today consist mainly of large, centralized battery systems, they are bound to move on to become distributed and shared in the future as smart grids reach maturity

Press Releases
TrendForce Expects Prices of Lithium-ion Batteries to Increase by 5~15% in 3Q18 Due to Rising Costs of Materials


Energy / Semiconductors / Emerging Technologies

Cobalt prices have reached another record high in 1Q18, according to the data from EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce As the result, the prices of lithium-ion battery cells are estimated to increase by 5~15% QoQ in 3Q18, but would have a chance to remain flat in the fourth quarter According to Duff Lu, senior research manager of EnergyTrend, the overall prices of IT batteries have been growing since 2Q18 due to the rising costs of materials in 1Q18, but the growth was more moderate than expected as some battery makers had stocked up in advance However, the price growth would be steeper in 3Q18 Particularly, prismatic cells, cylindrical cells, and polymer cells would witness a QoQ price growth of 6~8%, 7~9%, and 10~15% respectively In addition to rising material costs, the increase of cylindrical cell prices is also due to the undersupply of this cell type as a result of decreasing production capacity of suppliers Manufacturers of key battery system components have allocated increasing capacity to automotive components, which has squeezed capacity for capacitance In addition to capacitance, the impact on production capacity has been expanded to passive components such as resistors and inductor In 3Q18, resistors are expected to see a QoQ price rise of 5~10%, the highest among all the components As for capacitance, it would see a small price increase of 3~5%, because automotive components have occupied some of the production capacity that is originally for IT applications In terms of battery technology development, some manufacturers have introduced solutions with a higher ratio of nickel or higher voltage to increase the energy density However, a higher ratio of nickel brings along higher requirements for material structure stability and better conditions for the battery cell manufacturing process Therefore, suppliers of high-nickel cells are mainly based in Japan As for high-voltage solutions, they are commonly used in digital products Chinese battery cell manufacturers have begun to cut into this field As for the market of cobalt, it previously experienced a price hike, because the market expected the rapid development of China's new energy vehicles to boost the cobalt demand However, the demand from China is not expected to influence the global demand-supply situation of cobalt significantly in the near term This is because the global demand for cobalt is around 110,000 to 120,000 tons per year currently, of which only about 7,000 to 8,000 tons come from new energy vehicles in China EnergyTrend notes that the issue of illnesses related to cobalt mining in Congo may affect the production capacity of this metal Meanwhile, the introduction of high-nickel solutions to the market in 3Q18 would also have certain impacts on cobalt demand The two factors would jointly affect the future price trend of cobalt

Press Releases
Global Electric Vehicle Market Continues to Expand as Power Battery Prices Decrease, Says TrendForce



The global electric vehicle market continues to expand while the oil prices increase, power battery prices decrease, and countries have been proposing stricter CO2 emission targets for vehicles EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, forecasts that the market share of electric vehicles will reach 5% in 2020 and 8~9% in 2023 According to Duff Lu, senior research manager of EnergyTrend, stricter CO2 emission targets for vehicles worldwide have been the main momentum for the growth of electric vehicle market The target of CO2 emissions for cars in China was 200g/km in 2015, and is expected to be 119g/km in 2020 In North America and Europe, the targets will be 124g/km and 95g/km respectively in 2020, down from 150g/km and 130g/km respectively in 2015 By 2020, it will the first time for China to have a CO2 emission target lower than the US Generally speaking, Europe is reducing the CO2 emission step by step with great emphasis on environment protection China is promoting electric vehicles using lithium-ion battery to integrate its domestic battery industry, which is a unique advantage The United States is also striving to reduce carbon emission, but American car makers tend to be more conservative about this new energy, while drivers prefer to buy large cars On the battery side, the price of cobalt has been high in the past quarters, but the price of power batteries is expected to decrease steadily in the future with technical breakthroughs to be made Solutions for high voltage and solutions with high ratio of nickel are expected decrease the use of cobalt The price of lithium-ion batteries for vehicles was about 400~600 USD/kWh in 2016, and has decreased to 250~300 USD/kWh in 2018 The price is expected to fall below 200 USD/kWh in 2019 Currently, electric vehicles are designed for short- or mid-range ride of 200~400km due to the energy density of lithium-ion battery, while fuel cells are used for mid- to long-range ride of 400~600km As for the future, with the decreasing costs and increasing capacity of lithium-ion batteries, electric vehicles may also be used for mid- to long-range ride, squeezing the market share of fuel cells Previously, Toyota released high-energy-density fuel cells, whose prices have been decreasing rapidly in recent years However, the current lifespan of the battery system is only 3,000 hours, thus peripheral devices are required to increase the lifespan The additional costs would also impede mass production of vehicles using fuel cells According to the survey of EnergyTrend, the average price of lithium-ion batteries in each electric passenger car is currently about US$15,000, and is expected to fall below US$10,000 in 2020, while the cost of fuel cells is about US$20,000 currently, showing a large gap   New tariffs may influence Chinese automobile industry and promote local assembly of cars As the tariffs on Chinese exports to the US took effect last week, the Chinese automobile industry has been affected 28 items are included in the tariff list, covering entire vehicles and components This will also increase the tariff on imported cars in China to 40% Currently, only about 5% of the cars in the Chinese auto market are imported, 20% of which come from the United States The major brands include Tesla, Lincoln, Mercedes-Benz and BMW, who have been adjusting their prices since China reduced its import tariff on autos in May 2018 However, the trade war has brought the tariff back to the original level Meanwhile, China have eased some of the previous restrictions on foreign investment and released new regulation of credit score for new energy cars, which would jointly motivate Chinese car makers to seek cooperation with foreign companies As for the new energy vehicles, EnergyTrend believes that the increased tariffs on imported vehicles in China will promote the local assembly of cars, but would not necessarily promote the local production of components

Press Releases
Note 7 Battery Fire Reveals Flaw in Samsung’s Supply Chain Strategy but Its Impact on Lithium Battery Industry Is Limited, Says TrendForce



Battery fires linked to Samsung’s latest flagship Galaxy Note 7 has led to a major fallout in the smartphone market “This incident exposes Samsung’s flawed strategy of allocating most of its smartphone battery orders to Samsung SDI,” said Duff Lu, research manager of EnergyTrend, division of TrendForce The battery defect in Note 7 will have limited short-term impact on the lithium battery industry as a whole because just that one device model is being affected On the other hand, the incident in the long run will cause smartphone brands to rethink their strategies for battery supply chains “Energy density of smartphone batteries has been increasing steadily in recent years to satisfy consumers’ habits of using their devices for extended periods,” noted Lu “While mainstream smartphone batteries now have a density of more than 680 kilowatt-hours per kilogram, some products are even developed to last longer than notebook batteries However, the increase in energy density of lithium batteries has also led to growing concerns over their safety” Most smartphones and notebooks use lithium polymer batteries because they are lighter and thinner compared with other types of lithium batteries The percentage of smartphones using polymer batteries has risen considerably since 2014 as the competition among device vendors becomes fiercer and a polymer battery supply chain has emerged in China The increasing adoption of polymer batteries has also led to a significant reduction in the use of prismatic lithium batteries among smartphones EnergyTrend’s data shows that the share of smartphones using lithium polymer batteries has soared from around 35% in 2011 to 70% in 2016 According Lu, Hong Kong-based Amperex Technology (ATL) is currently the leading lithium battery supplier worldwide in terms of production capacity, followed by Sony, Samsung SDI, LG Chem (LGC) and Lishan rounding out the top five ATL has been the most active in capacity expansion in recent years, though other China-based suppliers have continued to take on more capacities as well South Korean battery makers by contrast will only increase their capacities if there is stable demand growth “Most branded device vendors allocate their battery orders evenly between two or more suppliers,” Lu pointed out “It is a rarity to have a vendor handing over 60% of its orders to one battery maker Apple, for instance, never allocates more than 40% of its iPhone battery orders to its largest battery supplier ATL This effectively spreads the risks of encountering problems with product quality later on To lower costs further, Apple in recent years has divided its battery supply chain into battery cell manufacturing and battery assembly” Conversely, Samsung gave more than 60% of its Note 7 battery orders to Samsung SDI By doing so, Samsung found itself with very few options as it faces problems with product quality and safety In the short term, Samsung will be under pressure to find alternative suppliers and rebuild its damaged reputation The incident’s impacts on the wider lithium battery industry, however, is not as significant In the long run, Samsung will focus on diversifying its battery supply chain The incident also serves as a warning to other smartphone brands that they will have accept tradeoff between energy density and component cost when choosing their batteries 

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