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keyword：Corrine Lin，
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2017/03/03
The US Department of Commerce that on March 1 announced changes to the antidumping duties (AD) that are imposed on PV cell imports from Taiwanese suppliers during the 2014~2016 period According to the preliminary result of the case review, the Commerce Department decided to substantially lower the AD rates for Taiwanese cell suppliers The initial ruling had some of them pay the highest rate of 2755% and the lowest rate of 1145%, while the rest would have to pay 195% The adjustments made after the review cut the highest rate down to 42% and the lowest rate down to 35% The majority of Taiwanese suppliers, however, now pay a rate of 409%
“Taiwanese PV enterprises Sino-American Silicon Products (SAS) and Solartech Energy are the winners coming out of this review because their rates are now the lowest,” said Corrine Lin, assistant research manager for EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce “The rate adjustment furthermore strengthens other advantages that SAS has Among Taiwanese manufacturers, SAS is the leader in PERC production capacity and has its own branded module products
Two other competitors Neo Solar Power (NSP) and Tainergy did not participate in the review, so their AD rates – both were levied 195% last year – remain unchanged To survive, NSP and Tainergy will have to accelerate the rollout of competitive products in their overseas facilities outside China and Taiwan
Lin also pointed out that during the past two years many first-tier, vertically integrated Chinese PV enterprises have established production facilities in Southeast Asia because importing from there will not be subject to antidumping and countervailing tariffs As a result, there is now an abundance of products from Southeast Asia for downstream customers to choose from
“Furthermore, the average price of multi-Si modules for utility-scale PV power plants in the US has now fallen to a low of US$035~037 per watt,” Lin added “Under this context, manufacturers that have their total tariff rates significantly cut will not necessarily become more competitive against manufacturers that have overseas production bases and are able to evade tariffs altogether”
On the other hand, Taiwanese cell suppliers with lower AD rates can be more effective in promoting their mono-Si and mono-Si PERC products, which have become popular since the last year’s Solar Power International trade show in the US While first-tier manufacturers in China have started to increase their PERC exports to the US since the fourth quarter of 2016, their production capacities for the technology, particularly in their overseas facilities, are still relatively low There are non-Chinese competitors such as Hanwha Q CELLS, SolarWorld and REC Solar that have technologically matured mono-Si PERC products and can sell them without being subjected to high tariffs However, their combined mono-Si PERC capacity is currently less than 2 gigawatts Therefore, Taiwanese suppliers of mono-Si and mono-Si PERC products can have a more advantageous position following the rate reduction
At the present, the average price of mono-Si PERC modules in the US rooftop market is around US$038~045 per watt Those Taiwanese cell suppliers with AD rates in the range of 35~42% will achieve profit by assembling and exporting their PERC modules to the US
However, EnergyTrend also believes that the rate adjustment following the review will give high-efficiency cells (including PERC products) only a temporary boost in terms of profit margin as the mono-Si and PERC capacities in Southeast Asia will expand eventually
In the past several years, Taiwanese PV enterprises have missed the opportunity to develop their own branded modules during periods of no AD tariff or low AD rates from the US Consequently, they became much less competitive when other major manufacturers started to establish production facilities overseas Now, Taiwanese manufacturers are concentrated in the cell section of the global PV supply chain They face challenges both in developing the downstream market and in securing mono-Si wafer supply from upstream suppliers While Taiwanese cells have advantages in conversion efficiency and product quality, they do not have much room for further margin growth
“Taiwanese PV enterprises will try to find opportunities that come from the lowering of AD rates and the relative immaturity of PERC production in Southeast Asia,” said Lin “At the same time, they will need to find ways to maximize the use of their mono-Si and PERC capacity Expanding into downstream is an imperative as opposed to relying on cell exports to the US The price differences between high-efficiency and conventional products will continue to narrow, so margins for Taiwanese cells will also shrink in the long run As for first-tier module suppliers, they will likely to keep building up production capacity in countries that are not the targets of high tariffs”
2016/12/15
EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, estimates that the total PV demand worldwide for 2016 will reach 695GW The installation rush in China during the year’s first half and significant market growth in the US and India have been driving this year’s demand
The outlook of the PV market for 2017, however, is generally negative Not only demand growth for next year will be flat with the annual rate at almost zero, prices across the supply chain may swing sharply downward in the year’s second half due to the severity of the oversupply situation Prices of PV modules are expected to fall by over 10% during the year on average, while prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers and PV cells may also sink to new lows In order to survive in the depressing market, PV enterprises will need to focus on lowering their costs as much as possible
Weakening demand in major markets will cause profits to fall in all sections of the supply chain next year
Major regional markets will simultaneously experience slowing demand in 2017 The installation rush in the US will subside a bit, while China’s demand will be affected by the annual installation target, which is lower than this year’s level Japan’s PV market will also be impacted by the reduction in feed-in tariff rates According to EnergyTrend, India might replace Japan as the world’s third largest PV market in 2017
However, the demand growth in India will not be enough to offset the demand decline in the major markets To keep up shipments and maintain market shares, first-tier module manufacturers could take their quotes to new lows The global average selling price of modules are projected to fall from US$038/W at the start of 2017 to US$033/W by the end of that year Due to the fierce price competition, first-tier module manufacturers will have difficulty to maintain their gross margins around the usual 15% and above Companies in the upstream and midstream sections of the supply chain will also incur heavy losses on account of the price downtrend Hence, the entire industry in 2017 will see profits much lower compared with the 2016 standard
Production capacity growth in Southeast Asia will narrow price gaps among markets worldwide
Since the US imposed antidumping and countervailing duties on PV exports from China and Taiwan in 2014, module and cell makers have established production facilities in Southeast Asia From there, they can sell products to the US without tariff While this strategy of setting up production centers abroad initially allowed PV enterprises to maintain healthy profits, prices are under increasing pressure as first-tier Chinese manufacturers continue to massively expand the production capacity of their overseas factories
The US and Europe recently have seen spot module prices falling sharply even as their governments have raised the barriers on PV trades Excluding transportation fees, spot module prices in these two regional markets are now roughly the same as in China As price differences among different markets for modules shrink, having more production capacity abroad does not confer additional advantages to product manufacturers Instead, manufactures will have to use their overseas factories to produce high-efficiency mono-Si or mono-Si PERC solutions that can help them differentiate themselves in the market
Corrine Lin, assistant research manager of EnergyTrend, pointed out that overseas production centers might actually become operational liabilities for PV enterprises, especially those from Taiwan “Taiwanese PV companies are mostly cell suppliers, so their profits are being eroded by the falling module prices in foreign markets,” noted Lin
Industry outlook for 2017 finds PERC supply to expand significantly and global market share of mono-Si products to exceed 32%
EnergyTrend’s analysis on global PERC production finds that this year’s shipments of PERC products worldwide totaled less than 45GW even though the global PERC production capacity has reached 13GW However, the supply of PERC products is expected to double in 2017 because the technology has significant advantage in terms of cost to performance Moreover, PERC demand in China will keep rising with the implementation of the Top Runner program
As for mono-Si products, EnergyTrend estimates that their global market share will grow from this year’s 235% to next year’s 32% In China, mono-Si solutions are estimated to represent nearly 80% of the 55GW Top Runner program that will be completed by next year Also, the market share of mono-Si in China is forecast to grow to almost 40% by the end of next year “Both mono-Si and PERC solutions have benefitted from China’s domestic demand and will steadily expand into overseas markets in 2017,” said Lin
Multi-Si product suppliers will have to rely on diamond-wire wafer slicing to lower cost and reduce the impact of declining prices
The most pressing challenge for multi-Si product suppliers in 2017 will be to integrate diamond-wire wafer slicing with black silicon in the manufacturing process As prices are expected to decline rapidly and the market share of mono-Si solutions continues to grow, manufacturers of multi-Si products will certainly incorporate diamond-wire wafer slicing into their manufacturing process EnergyTrend also expects most multi-Si product suppliers to choose wet etching or additive methods to create black silicon products As multi-Si product suppliers have limited cash supply, they are likely to forego other more expensive but also more effective methods of fabricating black silicon
Prices of PV products will register large declines through 2016 and 2017 due to the massive expansion of supply and wide price fluctuations in the end market Therefore, product manufacturers have to adopt advanced manufacturing technologies and methods These include PERC and black silicon that will further lower production cost and raise product quality
At the same time, companies in different sections of the supply chain will need to make adjustments to their business models and product portfolios so that they can remain competitive during the difficult period “To align with market trends, they can allocate more of their capacity to make mono-Si products,” said Lin “Manufacturers can also adopt diamond-wire wafer slicing and combine it with black silicon fabrication, or they can expand into the downstream market and distributive generation businesses Most importantly, PV enterprises must position themselves clearly in the market in 2017 as to avoid being sidelined by aggressive competitors”
2016/11/16
Product orders are tapering off across the PV supply chain as some projects that are required to connect to the grid before the year-end deadline are almost completed Though polysilicon, wafer and cell prices have been on the rise during the past one and half months, the market demand has cooled down a bit Corrine Lin, assistance research manager of EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, stated that prices of polysilicon, wafers and cells will soon experience a small decline
“With the exceptions of Japan and India, no installation rush will be taking place in most regional markets in the first quarter of 2017,” said Lin “Therefore, prices of PV products are unlikely to go up again before the next Chinese New Year holidays due to the lack of stock-up demand” EnergyTrend’s latest analysis finds that prices in PV supply chain may start to fall in the second half of this November, and the downward price trend will continue into the first quarter of 2017”
Prices of multi-Si wafers have peaked in November while demand for mono-Si wafers stays high
In China’s polysilicon market, prices are currently kept high at RMB 130~135 per kilogram While most Chinese polysilicon suppliers have completed the annual maintenance of their production facilities, it will take time before these factories will return to full operation Polysilicon supply therefore will remain a bit tight in the short run
Wafer production capacity on the whole has increased in November and the supply of multi-Si wafers is sufficient While quotes for multi-Si wafers are still on the rise, the actual spot prices have peaked Currently, prices of high-efficiency multi-Si wafers have come to RMB 52~53, or US$068~70, per piece
The PV cell market has been influenced by the falling prices in the downstream markets In November, multi-Si high efficiency cells with conversion efficiency of 184% and above have seen their prices peaked around US$0238~025 per watt Quotes for same products in China have also stayed around RMB 185 per watt
“The widening price gap between Taiwanese and Chinese cell makers means that the anticipated drop in demand will first affect Taiwanese cells,” said Lin “The rest of PV supply chain will again look to the price trend of Taiwanese cells as a market indicator Spot prices of standard mono-Si cells worldwide have remained stable during November, residing in the range of US$025~026, or RMB 19~195, per watt”
Prices of PV modules are on a freefall and product margins have been eroded significantly for major manufacturers A survey of orders for modules to be delivered next year indicates that module prices will drop below US$038 per watt in 2017
Prices next year will be heavily influenced by China’s deadline for grid-connection and policies of the new US administration
China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) have made some changes to its second draft document regarding opinions on the country’s feed-in-tariff (FiT) program The document, which was released in late October 2016, contains a proposal to move back next year’s deadline for grid connection, from the originally expected June 30 to September 30, 2017
“If the Chinese government adopts this proposal, then country’s PV plant developers will moderate their pace of system installation next year,” Lin noted “Under this scenario, the supply chain will not experience a general price surge between from the first to the third quarter of 2017 because demand in China will more evenly distributed throughout the year compared with the situation in the first half of 2016”
In addition to China not having definite FiT policies for next year, the result of the US presidential election has also created a lot of the uncertainty in the US solar demand “Globally, the market outlook for 2017 has become murkier, but capacity expansion will occur in all sections of the supply chain,” said Lin “Since the entire solar industry expects prices to be on a sharp downtrend next year, individual PV enterprises will be working hard to further reduce their costs”
2016/10/07
PV product manufacturers in Taiwan and China saw orders returning in the second half of September, while prices of polysilicon, wafers and PV cells started to rally after reaching their lows, according to EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce The capacity utilization rates of many manufacturers also rose from under 50% back to 70~80% As the Chinese government has planned to significantly cut its renewable energy subsidy in the middle of 2017, EnergyTrend expects the country’s PV system installation demand to take off again towards the end of 2016
Prices in Chinese PV market rose as demand recovered ahead of National Day holidays
Chinese PV enterprises did not have the sufficient manpower to increase their production to meet a short-term increase in demand that occurred just before China’s National Day holidays in October This has led to a temporary rebound of domestic prices for polysilicon, wafers and cells Taiwanese PV product manufacturers are also being affected by the situation and are preparing to raise their prices as well
“Whether prices in China will continue to go up after the National Day holidays will depend on a policy announcement from the country’s National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) regarding grid connection targets for new energies,” said Corrine Lin, assistant research manager of EnergyTrend “NDRC’s announcement will be instrumental in triggering a new surge of installation demand”
The first major PV industry tradeshow following China’s National Day holidays will be PV Taiwan, which will last from October 12 to 14 This event will be an important indicator of the market demand situation in China and worldwide
There are concerns that rising prices in the upstream and midstream sectors of the PV chain will be a temporary development as the first-tier manufacturers have yet to fully utilize their production capacities EnergyTrend’s latest analysis finds that the market is jolted by China’s plan to further cut its PV subsidy, so the overall demand will be fairly strong from the end of 2016 to the first half of 2017
June 30 will again be the day that divides the hot and cold phase of the Chinese PV market next year
On the other hand, manufacturers in different sectors of the PV chain have also massive expanded their capacities in 2016, so they are more than ready to meet China’s installation rush that will begin at the end of the year Looking ahead to 2017, supply will continue to outpace demand through the year Prices will likely remain in a slump even if there are periods of significant increases in orders
“Most manufacturers are expected to receive sufficient orders to survive through the fourth quarter of 2016, but prices are still too low for them to achieve profitability,” noted Lin “Furthermore, China and India will continue to drive the global demand from the end of this year to the first quarter of 2017 US and European PV enterprises will not benefit from these two major markets, where depressed prices are the norm Hence, they are currently reducing their workforces to save costs By contrast, some Chinese and Indian manufacturers still have plans to expand their production capacities”
Chinese industry participants would prefer their government to reduce subsidy at a gradual pace in 2017 as to avoid a repeat of this year’s progression – an installation rush during the first six months followed by a demand freeze in the latter half of the year
“Nonetheless, the Chinese government through several statements has indicated that a major reduction in subsidy will be in effect by the end of June 2017, which will mark the end of the next wave of installation demand,” Lin added “Even if the actual subsidy cut might be smaller than previously announced, the Chinese PV market will generally follow the demand pattern of this year Hence, manufacturers across the supply chain will have to keep improving their cost efficiency during the period of strong demand in the first half of 2017 By being vigilant, they will be able to cope with the inevitable price slump in the second half of next year
2016/08/01
The US Department of Commerce has released the final ruling on its second review of the antidumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) rates on Chinese PV module imports for 2012 According to the decision, imports from major Chinese manufacturers will be affected by total rates ranging from 2395% to 3313% In the preliminary ruling of the second review, some manufacturers were imposed with a CVD rate of 1962% The final ruling, however, has further reduced it to 192% On the whole, the latest ruling does not have a huge impact on major manufacturers’ strategies for the US market
"Major module and cell suppliers have already set up production facilities outside of China and Taiwan to avoid AD/CVD,” said Corrine Lin, assistant research manager for EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce “For now, the only event that could influence the development of the US-China solar trade dispute is the lawsuit between SolarWorld and Hemlock”
Manufacturers such as Trina Solar, Jinko Solar, JA Solar, Hanwha and Vina Solar are now supplying products to the US from their facilities outside China and Taiwan, thus circumventing the tariff barrier Module prices in the US in turn have declined considerably due to the flood of imports EnergyTrend expects the average sales price of standard PV modules in the US to fall 15% from US$06~062 per watt at the beginning of 2016 to US$048~052 per watt by the end of the year
"Future reviews and rulings on AD/CVD are not expected to create too much uncertainty in the market, and manufacturers are utilizing their capacities according to the market demand,” said Lin “Since manufacturers have increased their capacities significantly, finding orders for their products will be the most pressing issue”
The AC/CVD reviews targets two separate years of Chinese solar imports, 2012 and 2014 The sunset review of the 2012 case will take place at the end of 2017, while the sunset review of the 2014 case will be arranged at the beginning of 2020 Based on this schedule, there are several possible scenarios for the development of the US-China trade dispute
Scenario 1: AD/CVD rates will decrease after each review irrespective of what happens to Hemlock’s lawsuit against SolarWorld
It is widely expected that the preliminary ruling of the first review of the 2014 case, which will occur sometime in early 2017, will lower the AD rates for Taiwanese cell suppliers This scenario is based on the assumption that there will be no other external factors influencing the trade dispute
“Either Motech or Sunrise will receive the lowest rate among the Taiwanese cell suppliers,” said Lin “If Sunrise has the lowest rate, then it will able to export its high-end PERC products to the US and tap into more sources of demand On the whole, Taiwanese cell suppliers manufacturing products at home will see price premiums on their standard cells due to the lowering of their AD rates However, their price premiums will be limited because cell and module production capacities that are installed outside Taiwan and China will be ready for mass production by next year As for PERC, future rulings on the 2014 case will determine whether production in Taiwan or overseas will yield better profit”
Scenario 2: The sunset review at the end of next year will completely eliminate the AD/CVD rates for the 2012 case
This scenario will put all manufacturers on the same footing, which is without being affected by AD/CVD Companies that have set up facilities outside China and Taiwan, along with large and vertically integrated Chinese PV enterprises, will now face competition and may lose their hold on the US market If AD/CVD for the 2012 case was completely phased out at the end of 2017, Taiwanese cell suppliers that have already built factories overseas will have about just about a year to enjoy some price premiums resulted from the reduction of the 2014 AD rates Plans for setting up production capacities overseas during 2017 will also be on hold because the costs of building plants and installing equipment will be difficult to recoup
Scenario 3: Trade dispute will be resolved before the end of 2017; minimum price and volume agreements will control the imports of modules to the US and polysilicon to China
Module prices in the US will encounter steeper decline than the current downtrend if the US and China remove their respective tariff barriers on module and polysilicon imports, or if both countries reach minimum price and volume agreements on these products According to this scenario, module prices in the US may fall close to the projected global average sales price of US$045 per watt in 2017 At the same time, spot prices in China’s polysilicon market will also drop more sharply compared with now
China’s imposition of AD/CVD on foreign polysilicon imports has allowed domestic polysilicon manufacturers to expand their capacities during these two years Opening up the market will lead to massive oversupply and plunging prices in 2017 Therefore, China is unlikely aggravate the situation in the domestic polysilicon market further by removing the tariff barrier
