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Keyword：Chris Hsu，
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2020/06/11
According to the latest investigations by TrendForce, the combined revenues of the top 10 foundries increased by more than 20% YoY in 2Q20 This growth took place as there was not a massive reduction in wafer start orders in 1Q20, while foundry clients expanded their orders in 2Q20 due to both increased production of existing devices and new applications generated by the COVID-19 pandemic The comparatively low base period in 2Q19 also contributed to the YoY increase in foundry revenue in 2Q20
TSMC posted revenue growth of more than 30% YoY in 2Q20 thanks to stable demand for products made with its legacy process technologies, as well as new demand for 5G smartphone APs, HPC, and WFH-use CPUs/GPUs, which contributed to the company’s revenue from advanced process technologies With regards to the impact of US sanctions on Huawei, which is one of TSMC’s major clients, the sanctions are expected to affect TSMC’s capacity utilization rates to only a very limited degree because the foundry’s other clients, including AMD, MediaTek, NVIDIA, and Qualcomm, had already managed to plan wafer start orders at TSMC
Owing to good customer adoption rates of 5G smartphones featuring Qualcomm’s mid-range and high-end 7-series Snapdragon 5G platforms, the demand for Samsung’s 7nm process technology was relatively stable Samsung expanded its supply of CIS and DDIC due to an expected increase in the penetration rate of 5G smartphones The Korean foundry also increased the EUV capacity at its Hwaseong fab, in turn expanding its product applications outside of the mobile business Samsung’s revenue is expected to increase by 157% YoY in 2Q20 GlobalFoundries, however, was affected by the waning demand for automotive chips and microprocessors GF may therefore see limited space for YoY revenue growth in 2Q20, which is projected to reach 69%
Due to increased demand for driver IC and other pandemic-related products, UMC’s revenue is expected to reach a double-digit YoY increase of 239% in 2Q20 As for SMIC, demand for products made from 12-inch wafers, such as NOR Flash and eNVM, as well as 8-inch wafers, such as PMIC, fingerprint sensor chips, and some general-use MCUs, was able to sustain SMIC’s revenue performance, projected to reach 19% increase YoY in 2Q20 But the US sanctions on Huawei may introduce variables potentially affecting SMIC’s capacity utilization going forward
In terms of third-tier foundries, TowerJazz’s revenue from RF and silicon photonics transceiver products benefitted from ongoing demand for 5G infrastructure and data center constructions, but the total sales of these products could not compensate for the reduction in consumer electronics products, meaning TowerJazz may find it somewhat difficult to maintain a high capacity utilization rate Furthermore, despite the strong demand for CIS products, the future of automotive product demand remains yet unclear TrendForce thus takes a conservative view towards TowerJazz’s overall revenue in 2Q20, which is projected to reach a 13% increase YoY
PSMC’s revenue growth mostly took place because of demand for CIS products, including IP cameras, entry-level and mid-range smartphone CIS chips, and entry-level CIS for security and surveillance cameras, all of which experienced stable growth in China In addition, PSMC’s revenue performance in 2Q19 resulted in a relatively low base period for comparison, meaning the foundry’s revenue is expected to increase by about 70% YoY in 2Q20 On the other hand, VIS is expected to reach an 189% YoY revenue growth in 2Q20, thanks to increased demand for large-sized display panel DDIC from its Chinese clients and demand for PMICs used in servers and data centers
Hua Hong has been focusing on the development of 12-inch wafer capacity and promoting its 90nm products, including CIS, eFlash, RF and power semiconductors As such, Hua Hong’s production capacity is currently still expanding But Hua Hong’s relatively high base period in 2Q19 means its revenue is expected to undergo a slight 44% YoY decrease in 2Q20 DB HiTek saw massive DDIC and CIS demand from its Korean clients, which is expected to help its revenue reach a 46% increase YoY in 2Q20 Since TrendForce considers this wave of demand to be a preemptive stock-up measure by clients against a possible component supply shortage, DB HiTek’s future client demand still remains to be seen
TrendForce indicates that the pandemic has galvanized the foundry clients’ demand for wafer starts by generating a change in end-product applications and by compelling the clients to stock up on chips related to those applications, in turn stabilizing the major foundries’ production plans for 2Q20 Even so, this wave of stock-up demand may potentially slow down, as it is constrained by clients’ inventory adjustment strategies Furthermore, the ongoing trade tension between China and the US means not all foundries have benefitted from the wave of demand, and the increased demand in 2Q20 does not represent a revenue driver capable of supporting the overall foundry industry in the long term Therefore, the foundry market may yet face uncertainties in 2H20
2019/06/12
According to TrendForce, electric cars have already become the main motivator for growth of the future car industry, and are expected to exceed 8 million units in 2021, twice the amount of shipments for 2018 Apart from batteries and engines, IGBT power components are ranked as the most important among key electric car components, being used in numbers 5 to 10 times that of traditional internal combustion engines These modules may therefore bring about continual growth of total IGBT market revenue, which is projected to go beyond the US$52 billion mark
TrendForce Analyst Chris Hsu explains that electric cars mainly use five types of IGBT devices: inverters, DC/AC converters, on-board chargers, energy monitoring systems and other auxiliary systems Among these, inverters, DC/AC converters and on-board chargers are the most critical to electric car performance, as IGBT components or IGBT modules are often switched in for power components in order to satisfy high voltage, high power working conditions This shows that their need for IGBT modules is the greatest On the other hand, although energy monitoring systems and other auxiliary systems such as water pumps and AC compressors do not differ that much compared to previous designs,switching to high voltage car batteries for energy input necessitates a concomitant switch in load-bearing power components to IGBT power components with higher voltage working ranges This will contribute to IGBT market demand
Looking at supply chains, we see that the main IDMs for electric car IGBT components are Infineon, ON semiconductor, Fuji Electronics, STMicroelectronics, DENSO, BYD etc Infineon takes the top position in the overall IGBT market with a market share of 30%, and provides both IGBT components and IGBT modules And although DENSO and BYD are car manufacturers, they also possess the ability to design and manufacture their own IGBT components for electric cars, and rank among the few car manufacturers to extend to the semiconductor sector
Moreover, the companies to whom IDMs offshore IGBT components along the supply chain include Taiwanese foundries such as VIS and Mosel Vitelic China, on the other hand, has companies such as SMIC and Hua Hong to meet domestic demands For electric car IGBT modules, customers may seek providers such as Mistubishi, SEMIKRON, Danfoss, CRRC and other suppliers who specialize in making these modules
According to TrendForce's statistics, the number of electric cars has grown in 2016-2018, registering in sequence 28%, 29% and 27% YoY growths compared to the mere single-digit growths up until 2015, and brought IGBT revenue up by leaps and bounds Total revenue for the global IGBT market 2018 lies at around US$47 billion, a 16% growth YoY
Yet with the currently-stalled US-China trade talks; the erection of a tax-wall at US-Mexico borders due to illegal immigrants; Brexit; the instability brewing in the Middle East and other factors, the risk for global economic downturn is mounting and causing persistently sluggish car sales worldwide Adding the less-than-expected sales performance seen in China, the world's largest single market for electric cars, car sales in 2H19 may become affected, and total IGBT revenue in turn as well Total IGBT revenue is forecast to reach US$484 billion in 2019, a mere 3% growth over 2018
For more information on the global car market and its development, please refer to TrendForce's newest Global Automotive Market Decode Report:
https://wwwtrendforcecom/Global-Automotive-Market-Decode
