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keyword：Celeste Tsai，
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2017/03/13
The global solar market has yet to show signs of turnaround after going through the turbulent 2016 The latest Gold Member Solar Report by EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, forecasts that the global PV demand for 2017 will total just 739 gigawatts This year’s PV demand growth will be nearly flat for the first time after years of expansion Also, the ranking of the top three regional solar markets will likely change this year, with India having the opportunity to displace Japan to become the world’s third largest
“While China remains the largest regional market, its domestic PV installation target for this year is slightly lower than last year’s according to the latest government announcement,” said EnergyTrend analyst Celeste Tsai “As for the second-place US, the country’s current political climate is not conducive to the growth of its PV market At the same time, Japan will continue to lower its feed-in tariff rates over the next few years Because India still maintain strong demand for PV products, it has the potential to overtake Japan to become the world’s third largest solar market by taking at least 14% of the year’s total PV demand”
India’s PV demand will rise steadily in the long term as the country sets an installation target of 100 gigawatts by 2022
India’s cumulative grid-connected PV installations officially surpassed 9 gigawatts at the end of 2016, according to the country’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) Furthermore, the Indian government has announced the bidding results for the building of the country’s and the world’s largest PV power plant – Rewa Ultra Mega Solar Project Scheduled to begin operation in 2018, Rewa Ultra Mega Solar Project will make a huge contribution to India’s utility-scale PV demand
GST could have an impact on India’s long-term PV demand
Tsai pointed out that policy remains an influential factor in the long-term development of India’s PV market “Currently, solar products in some areas of the country are exempted from sales taxes, but the government has yet to decide the rate of Goods and Services Tax (GST) that will be applied on them,” Tsai explained “GST, which was approved by the parliament last year, could pose as an enormous financial burden on the future construction of PV power plants in India and stifle the growth of the country’s solar market”
MRNE made an assessment on the impact of GST on the domestic solar market and estimated that some solar products can be subject to a rate as high as 20% This in turn will drive up costs across the domestic PV supply chain and raise levelized cost of electricity for PV power generation by 13~15%
Tsai also stated that irrespective of the GST rate, an installation rush is expected to take place in India during the first quarter before April, when the nation-wide sales tax is officially implemented This wave of urgency to install PV systems will be the main demand driver for the country’s solar market for the first quarter
EnergyTrend expects that India will add at least 10 gigawatts to its domestic PV installations in 2017, allowing the country to overtake Japan and become the third largest solar market in the world
2016/11/09
The result of the US election may further aggravate the oversupply situation in the global PV market, according to Celeste Tsai, analyst for EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce The federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for solar power, which the US Congress has extend to the end of December 2022 will maintain PV demand in the US at 8~13GW each year from 2017 to 2019 “Donald Trump’s administration wholly supports fossil fuels over renewable energies, so there is a strong possibility that the US will stop subsidizing the installation of PV systems altogether,” noted Tsai “Under this scenario, the US will witness a great urgency to install PV systems before the ITC cut-off date, followed by a freeze in domestic demand and a worsening of the current oversupply problem in the global PV market”
A Trump presidency will raise trade barriers and cause huge impact on the US solar market
Trump’s energy policies are explicitly fossil-fuel centric and particularly rely on the shale oil industry Under his “America First Energy Plan,” the US is to achieve energy independence by exploiting domestic reserves of shale oil, natural gas and clean coal The promotion of these energy sources are expected to simultaneously lower domestic energy prices, reduce carbon emissions and create economic growth
What is noticeably absent in Trump’s energy plan is the development of renewable energies At the same time, Trump’s “America First” policies will result in protectionist initiatives that target allegedly unfair trade practices by the Chinese government Two popular themes in Trump’s agenda are the perseveration of domestic industries and fixing the huge US trade deficit Hence, it is possible that a Trump administration will use extreme measures against China in the area of trade
“US solar companies are mostly EPC service providers and PV system integrators, so raising the trade barriers will increase their development costs,” Tsai pointed out “Companies can pass increased costs onto consumers in the form of higher prices, but that will constrain domestic demand and put greater pressure on the local PV industry”
For Chinese solar companies, they are mainly concentrated on the manufacturing side of the industry So far in the short term, they have circumvented US trade barriers by moving their production facilities outside of their home country From the long-term perspective, however, the US solar market is expected to contract significantly under Trump’s policies and the oversupply problem in the global PV market will get worse In sum, PV industry participants will need to prepare for a period of uncertainty and challenges following Trump’s ascension to the White House
2016/11/02
Taiwan’s government has focused on expanding the island’s PV power generation as part of its plan to abandon nuclear power In terms of targets, Taiwan aims to add 152GW of PV capacity between mid-2016 and mid-2018 and ultimately achieve a cumulative capacity of 20GW in 2025 If 152GW plan is successfully implemented, Taiwan will be joining Thailand as one of the world’s 10 largest PV markets in 2017 with an annual demand reaching 900MW, according to EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce With the global PV demand being almost flat next year, Taiwan is now considered a highly prospective market for major enterprises within the supply chain
Taiwan is far away from its target as its cumulative capacity is currently at just 1 GW
"At the end of August 2016, Taiwan’s cumulative PV capacity was 980MW,” noted EnergyTrend analyst Celeste Tsai “The newly installed PV capacity per month on the island during the past one and a half years was usually no more than 20MW on average To achieve the 2025 target of 20GW will therefore be an enormous challenge”
One of the major challenges that need to be addressed is the limitations of the local power grids Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs has made the expansion of transmission lines and related infrastructures a priority before accelerating the installation of PV systems With its two-year PV promotion project, the ministry expects 910MW of rooftop PV systems and 610MW of ground-mounted PV systems to be installed before the end of June 2018 (collectively a total of 152GW)
“Even if the two-year target has been achieved on schedule, Taiwan will still need to expand its installed PV capacity by a CAGR of about 30%, or 2~3GW annually, from 2018 to 2025 in order have a cumulative capacity of 20GW,” said Tsai “The government will have to dramatically step its efforts as the island only increased its installed capacity by 220MW annually on average from 2014 to 2015 At the same time, various related problems have to be dealt with, including the acquisition of land for PV projects, the construction of transmission lines to connect these projects to the grid and the financing of the projects”
Domestic manufacturers with PERC cell capacity will benefit from FiT rate bonuses
Additionally, Taiwan’s Bureau of Energy, which is under the Ministry of Economic Affairs, has recently adjusted next year’s FiT rates to favor high-efficiency PV modules While FiT rates for PV projects in 2017 will be 3~6% lower compared with the rates in 2016, projects that use high-efficiency modules will receive an additional 6% bonus Therefore, projects that deploy high-efficiency modules will see their 2017 FiT rates matching or exceeding the rates of the prior year In areas where installations for distributed PV systems are relatively low, such as northern Taiwan and offshore islands, the bonus is even higher at 15% On the whole, this policy incentive will certainly spur installation of rooftop systems across Taiwan over the next two years
Tsai added: “Taiwan’s production capacity for PV modules is around 18GW and will be able to fulfill domestic demand for the short term Furthermore, domestic manufacturers have the PERC technology that supply cells for high-efficiency modules Therefore, they are going to be the main beneficiaries of the FiT rate bonuses”
