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2023/08/30
TrendForce expects that memory suppliers will continue their strategy of scaling back production of both DRAM and NAND Flash in 2024, with the cutback being particularly pronounced in the financially struggling NAND Flash sector Market demand visibility for consumer electronic is projected to remain uncertain in 1H24 Additionally, capital expenditure for general-purpose servers is expected to be weakened due to competition from AI servers Considering the low baseline set in 2023 and the current low pricing for some memory products, TrendForce anticipates YoY bit demand growth rates for DRAM and NAND Flash to be 13% and 16%, respectively Nonetheless, achieving effective inventory reduction and restoring supply-demand balance next year will largely hinge on suppliers’ ability to exercise restraint in their production capacities If managed effectively, this could open up an opportunity for a rebound in average memory prices
PC: The annual growth rate for average DRAM capacity is projected at approximately 124%, driven mainly by Intel’s new Meteor Lake CPUs coming into mass production in 2024 This platform’s DDR5 and LPDDR5 exclusivity will likely make DDR5 the new mainstream, surpassing DDR4 in the latter half of 2024 The growth rate in PC client SSDs will not be as robust as that of PC DRAM, with just an estimated growth of 8–10% As consumer behavior increasingly shifts toward cloud-based solutions, the demand for laptops with large storage capacities is decreasing Even though 1 TB models are becoming more available, 512 GB remains the predominant storage option Furthermore, memory suppliers are maintaining price stability by significantly reducing production Should prices hit rock bottom and subsequently rebound, PC OEMs are expected to face elevated SSD costs This, when combined with Windows increasing its licensing fees for storage capacities at and above 1 TB, is likely to put a damper on further growth in average storage capacities
Servers: The annual growth rate for the average capacity of server DRAM is estimated to reach 173% This surge is primarily fueled by generational transitions in server platforms, a heightened dependency on RAM that is coordinated with CPU cores in specific CSP operations, and the high computational load requirements of AI servers Enterprise SSDs: The estimated annual growth rate of average capacity stands at 147% For CSPs, the rollout of processors supporting PCle 50 suggests that inventory levels for these OEMs should return to normal by early next year, likely prompting an uptick in the procurement of 8 TB products On the brand side for servers, while the sharp decline in NAND Flash prices is propelling an increase in 16 TB deployments, the contribution of AI servers to this growth remains relatively limited
Smartphones: The annual production growth rate for smartphones in 2024 is estimated to be a modest 22%, largely impacted by a global economic downturn TrendForce cites this as the primary reason for the sluggish growth in demand volume Thanks to multiple consecutive quarters of declining memory prices, brands are increasingly focusing on hardware competition Consequently, the average DRAM memory capacity in smartphones is projected to rise by approximately 143% in 2023 Given that the ASP of mobile DRAM is expected to remain at a relatively low point in 2024, this trend is likely to persist, potentially leading to an additional 79% growth in average device memory capacity for the year
UFS & eMMC: Factors such as growing demand for image storage and increased 5G penetration are expected to drive up the average storage capacity in smartphones However, as suppliers scale back production to set the stage for potential price hikes, smartphone OEMs are projected to exercise greater caution in cost management in 2024, potentially leading to fewer mid-to-low-end models offering over 1TB of storage On a related note, the absence of enthusiasm for QLC products among smartphone OEMs likely presents an obstacle for suppliers aiming to nudge consumers toward capacity upgrades via lower-cost options With smartphone storage baselines continually rising and given Apple's current lack of plans to introduce iPhone models exceeding 1TB of storage, TrendForce anticipates that the annual growth rate for average smartphone storage capacity will hover around 13% in 2024
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/08/09
TrendForce highlights in its latest report that memory suppliers are boosting their production capacity in response to escalating orders from NVIDIA and CSPs for their in-house designed chips These efforts include the expansion of TSV production lines to increase HBM output Forecasts based on current production plans from suppliers indicate a remarkable 105% annual increase in HBM bit supply by 2024 However, due to the time required for TSV expansion, which encompasses equipment delivery and testing (9 to 12 months), the majority of HBM capacity is expected to materialize by 2Q24
TrendForce analysis indicates that 2023 to 2024 will be pivotal years for AI development, triggering substantial demand for AI Training chips and thereby boosting HBM utilization However, as the focus pivots to Inference, the annual growth rate for AI Training chips and HBM is expected to taper off slightly The imminent boom in HBM production has presented suppliers with a difficult situation: they will need to strike a balance between meeting customer demand to expand market share and avoiding a surplus due to overproduction Another concern is the potential risk of overbooking, as buyers, anticipating an HBM shortage, might inflate their demand
HBM3 is slated to considerably elevate HBM revenue in 2024 with its superior ASP
The HBM market in 2022 was marked by sufficient supply However, an explosive surge in AI demand in 2023 has prompted clients to place advance orders, stretching suppliers to their capacity limits Looking ahead to 2024, TrendForce forecasts that due to aggressive expansion by suppliers, the HBM sufficiency ratio will rise from -24% to 06% in 2024
TrendForce believes that the primary demand is shifting from HBM2e to HBM3 in 2023, with an anticipated demand ratio of approximately 50% and 39%, respectively As an increasing number of chips adopting HBM3 hit the market, demand in 2024 will heavily lean toward HBM3 and eclipse HBM2e with a projected share of 60% This expected surge—coupled with a higher ASP—is likely to trigger a significant increase in HBM revenue next year
SK hynix currently holds the lead in HBM3 production, serving as the principal supplier for NVIDIA’s server GPUs Samsung, on the other hand, is focusing on satisfying orders from other CSPs The gap in market share between Samsung and SK hynix is expected to narrow significantly this year due to an increasing number of orders for Samsung from CSPs Both firms are predicted to command similar shares in the HBM market sometime between 2023 to 2024—collectively occupying around 95% However, variations in shipment performance may arise across different quarters due to their distinct customer bases Micron, which has focused mainly on HBM3e development, may witness a slight decrease in market share in the next two years due to the aggressive expansion plans of these two South Korean manufacturers
Prices for older HBM generations are expected to drop in 2024, while HBM3 prices may remain steady
From a long-term perspective, TrendForce notes that the ASP of HBM products gradually decreases year on year Given HBM’s high-profit nature and a unit price far exceeding other types of DRAM products, suppliers aim to incrementally reduce prices to stimulate customer demand, leading to a price decline for HBM2e and HBM2 in 2023
Even though suppliers have yet to finalize their pricing strategies for 2024, TrendForce doesn’t rule out the possibility of further price reductions for HBM2 and HBM2e products, given a significant improvement in the overall HBM supply and suppliers’ endeavors to broaden their market shares Meanwhile, HBM3 prices are forecast to stay consistent with 2023 Owing to its significantly higher ASP compared to HBM2e and HBM2, HBM3 is poised to bolster suppliers’ HBM revenue, potentially propelling total HBM revenue to a whopping US$89 billion in 2024—a 127% YoY increase
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/08/01
TrendForce reports that the HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market's dominant product for 2023 is HBM2e, employed by the NVIDIA A100/A800, AMD MI200, and most CSPs' (Cloud Service Providers) self-developed accelerator chips As the demand for AI accelerator chips evolves, manufacturers plan to introduce new HBM3e products in 2024, with HBM3 and HBM3e expected to become mainstream in the market next year
The distinctions between HBM generations primarily lie in their speed The industry experienced a proliferation of confusing names when transitioning to the HBM3 generation TrendForce clarifies that the so-called HBM3 in the current market should be subdivided into two categories based on speed One category includes HBM3 running at speeds between 56 to 64 Gbps, while the other features the 8 Gbps HBM3e, which also goes by several names including HBM3P, HBM3A, HBM3+, and HBM3 Gen2
The development status of HBM by the three major manufacturers, SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron, varies SK hynix and Samsung began their efforts with HBM3, which is used in NVIDIA's H100/H800 and AMD's MI300 series products These two manufacturers are also expected to sample HBM3e in Q1 2024 Meanwhile, Micron chose to skip HBM3 and directly develop HBM3e
HBM3e will be stacked with 24Gb mono dies, and under the 8-layer (8Hi) foundation, the capacity of a single HBM3e will jump to 24GB This is anticipated to feature in NVIDIA’s GB100, set to launch in 2025 Hence, major manufacturers are expected to release HBM3e samples in Q1 2024 and aim to mass-produce them by 2H 2024
CSPs are developing their own AI chips in an effort to reduce dependency on NVIDIA and AMD
NVIDIA continues to command the highest market share when it comes to AI server accelerator chips However, the high costs associated with NVIDIA’s H100/H800 GPUs, priced at between US$20,000 and $25,000 per unit, coupled with an AI server’s recommended eight-card configuration, have dramatically increased the total cost of ownership Therefore, while CSPs will continue to source server GPUs from NVIDIA or AMD, they are concurrently planning to develop their own AI accelerator chips
Tech giants Google and Amazon Web Services (AWS) have already made significant strides in this area with the establishment of the Google Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) and AWS’ Trainium and Inferentia chips Furthermore, these two industry leaders are already hard at work on their next-generation AI accelerators, which are set to utilize HBM3 or HBM3e technology Furthermore, other CSPs in North America and China are also conducting related verifications, signaling a potential surge in competition in the AI accelerator chip market in the coming years
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/07/05
TrendForce reports that continued production cuts by DRAM suppliers have led to a gradual quarterly decrease in overall DRAM supply Seasonal demand, on the other hand, is helping to mitigate inventory pressure on suppliers TrendForce projects that the third quarter will see the ASP for DRAM converging towards a 0~5% decline Despite suppliers’ concerted efforts, inventory levels persistently remain high, keeping prices low While production cutbacks may help to curtail quarterly price declines, a tangible recovery in prices may not be seen until 2024
PC DRAM: The benefits of consolidated production cuts on DDR4 by the top three suppliers are expected to become evident in the third quarter Furthermore, inventory pressure on suppliers has been partially alleviated due to aggressive purchasing by several OEMs at low prices during 2Q23 Evaluating average price trends for PC DRAM products in 3Q23 reveals that DDR4 will continue to remain in a state of persistent oversupply, leading to an expected quarterly price drop of 3~8% DDR5 prices—influenced by suppliers’ efforts to maintain prices and unmet buyer demand—are projected to see a 0–5% quarterly decline The overall ASP of PC DRAM is projected to experience a QoQ decline of 0~5% in the third quarter
Server DRAM: Buyer inventories remain high and the transition to new platforms has fallen short of expectations Despite the recent investment focus by CSPs on AI server equipment, which is accelerating the procurement of high-capacity server DRAM such as DDR5 128G and HBM, there hasn’t been a significant reduction in server DRAM inventories The price decline for DDR4 and DDR5 stands at approximately 3~8% and 0~5% respectively, signaling a persistently weak pricing trend for server DRAM products Consequently, average server DRAM prices are forecasted to decline by about 0~5% in 3Q23
Mobile DRAM: Even though smartphone demand was weak in 1H23, the traditional peak season and concurrent production cuts by suppliers are expected to drive up demand for mobile DRAM However, these measures offer limited assistance in being able to substantially reduce suppliers’ inventory levels Successive price declines over past quarters have now reached baseline prices for suppliers, prompting Korean firms to lead a hike in mobile DRAM prices But due to the prevailing oversupply, a standoff has ensued between buyers and sellers The ASP of mobile DRAM is predicted to fall by 0~5% in 3Q23, although sporadic price increases may occur due to strategic moves made by suppliers
Graphics DRAM: The NVIDIA RTX 40 series, along with the traditional peak season, is anticipated to stimulate a significant upswing in demand for graphics DRAM—particularly GDDR6 16Gb—during the third quarter However, given that buyers accumulated stock ahead of time in the second quarter and now hold substantial inventory, suppliers may find themselves unable to increase prices in a market that remains in a state of oversupply Therefore, the market price of mainstream GDDR6 16Gb is projected to see a quarterly drop of 0~5% in the third quarter, mirroring an approximate 0~5% decline in ASP for graphics DRAM
Consumer DRAM: The market is currently witnessing a sluggish transactional pace SK hynix plans to expand the supply of DDR3 and DDR4 4Gb at its Wuxi fab, gradually increasing production capacity Simultaneously, Winbond has transitioned into the mass production stage, with an increase in wafer input expected each quarter As a result, the consumer DRAM market continues to grapple with oversupply Nevertheless, suppliers are progressively cutting back production, the benefits which are expected to materialize in the third quarter Given the substantial operating losses incurred by these suppliers, these factors should curtail the decline in ASP of consumer DRAM to 0~5% in 3Q23
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/06/28
High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is emerging as the preferred solution for overcoming memory transfer speed restrictions due to the bandwidth limitations of DDR SDRAM in high-speed computation HBM is recognized for its revolutionary transmission efficiency and plays a pivotal role in allowing core computational components to operate at their maximum capacity Top-tier AI server GPUs have set a new industry standard by primarily using HBM TrendForce forecasts that global demand for HBM will experience almost 60% growth annually in 2023, reaching 290 million GB, with a further 30% growth in 2024
TrendForce's forecast for 2025, taking into account five large-scale AIGC products equivalent to ChatGPT, 25 mid-size AIGC products from Midjourney, and 80 small AIGC products, the minimum computing resources required globally could range from 145,600 to 233,700 Nvidia A100 GPUs Emerging technologies such as supercomputers, 8K video streaming, and AR/VR, among others, are expected to simultaneously increase the workload on cloud computing systems due to escalating demands for high-speed computing
HBM is unequivocally a superior solution for building high-speed computing platforms, thanks to its higher bandwidth and lower energy consumption compared to DDR SDRAM This distinction is clear when comparing DDR4 SDRAM and DDR5 SDRAM, released in 2014 and 2020 respectively, whose bandwidths only differed by a factor of two Regardless of whether DDR5 or the future DDR6 is used, the quest for higher transmission performance will inevitably lead to an increase in power consumption, which could potentially affect system performance adversely Taking HBM3 and DDR5 as examples, the former's bandwidth is 15 times that of the latter and can be further enhanced by adding more stacked chips Furthermore, HBM can replace a portion of GDDR SDRAM or DDR SDRAM, thus managing power consumption more effectively
TrendForce concludes that the current driving force behind the increasing demand is AI servers equipped with Nvidia A100, H100, AMD MI300, and large CSPs such as Google and AWS, which are developing their own ASICs It is estimated that the shipment volume of AI servers, including those equipped with GPUs, FPGAs, and ASICs, will reach nearly 12 million units in 2023, marking an annual growth rate of almost 38% TrendForce also anticipates a concurrent surge in the shipment volume of AI chips, with growth potentially exceeding 50%
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
