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keyword：Boyce Fan，
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2015/05/12
Major Chinese panel makers BOE Technology Group Co (BOE), China Star Optoelectronics Technology (CSOT), and Nanjing CEC-Panda LCD Technology Co (CEC-Panda) will begin mass production on their new Gen 85 fabs at the start of this year’s second quarter, according to the latest observation from WitsView, a division of TrendForce The production of the large-size TFT-LCD panel for 2015 is estimated to reach a capacity of 2323Mn m2, with a 73% increase over 2014 Boyce Fan, senior research manager for WitsView, said that the ambitious Chinese panel makers are planning additional capacity expansions in the next three to four years Hence, the capacity of large-size TFT-LCD panel production is likely to surpass 2707Mn m2
Much of the expansion in the global capacity of large-size LCD panels has been concentrated in China since the start of 2014
Backed by the huge internal demand, China-based TV brand vendors have secured their dominance over the domestic market and setting their sights abroad Hence, their panel demands remain robust “Under the guidance of the state’s industrial policies, China is now the home of fabs established by domestic panel vendors as well as their Korean counterparts The country has turned into a display manufacturing hub with the best prospect for further developments
Moreover, the TV market enjoyed a surge of replacement demand in 2014 and this helped the panel industry to climb out of its slump Panel makers not only made a turnaround but also started to report big profits, strengthening the Chinese government’s resolve to make bigger investments in the industry Consequently, many fab-building plans have sprung up this year In addition to BOE’s announcement of a Gen 105 fab in Hefei and a Gen 85 fab in Fujian, other panel makers such as CSOT and CEC-Panda are planning to invest in new fabs as well
Based on Fan’s assessment, these large-scale capacity expansion projects by the Chinese panel makers reveals China’s three major aspirations for the panel industry:
Firstly, China hopes that its domestic panel maker BOE is able to replace its Japanese rival Sharp as the leader in Gen 10 panel processing China’s Gen 105 fab exceeds Sharp’s Gen 10 fab in terms of investment, and it will be able to achieve a symbolic technological milestone if it enters mass production as scheduled
Secondly, these Chinese companies are on their way to become the largest panel makers in the world as they are making strides with their capacity expansions
Thirdly, the average TV size will get bigger and bigger, so investments in larger generation fabs will pay off for the Chinese panel makers when the next wave of TV replacement demand hits
Betting on the next wave replacement demands for TVs, Chinese manufactures expand capacities for Gen 85 and 105 fabs
The consumer demand have already left TVs sized under 40 inches and is now moving to 40 to 50-inch Presently, the demand outlook for sizes 50-inch and above is very positive, with the demands for 55 and 65-inch products gaining strength Fan noted that the most efficient cut size for a Gen 85 panel is the 55-inch, and for a Gen 105 panel it will be the 65-inch The capacity expansion in both Gen 85 and 105 is a signal that the Chinese panel makers will be going head-to-head against their Taiwanese competitors, who are currently churning out 65-inch TV panels from their Gen 6 fabs
“For fabs processing panels sized Gen 85 and above, China has a considerable edge relative to other regions when it comes to the overall area capacity,” said Fan When the next wave of replacement demand for TV of larger sizes appears, Taiwanese panel makers with their smaller area capacities may be in a disadvantage And this is one reason why earlier this year Taiwanese panel makers announced plans to expand their Gen 85 capacities
However, the increase in the TV screen size usually matches the advances in the large-screen display technology In this respect, the Taiwanese and Korean panel makers have better technology specifications that give them rooms to make strategic maneuvers In sum, the competition is likely to become more intense among panel manufacturers from different regions when the next wave of replacement demand for TVs arrives The heated contest will be over capacities, sizes, display technologies, and specs
2014/12/09
The major panel display manufacturers will continuously add low-temperature polysilicon (LTPS) production lines from 2015 to 2016, focusing on the Generation 55 and Generation 6 lines, according to WitsView, a research division of TrendForce “Total production capacity by area will more than double from 58 million square meters in 2013 to 117 million square meters in 2016,” said Boyce Fan, Senior Research Manager at WitsView
Demand for small and medium-sized handsets is resilient and vendors are increasingly packing more advanced features into mobile phones As a result, manufacturers with LTPS production capabilities have an opportunity to enter the medium and high-end handset markets The LTPS sector is also attracting increasing investment which will help further develop the medium and high-end mobile phone markets
The entry barrier is high for LTPS production and manufacturers have to spend considerable time increasing the yield rate, Fan said When LTPS goes to mass production, achieving a high yield rate is contingent upon the manufacturer’s skill level It usually requires six to nine months to increase the yield rate, which may cause delays in getting the product to market “Competition has been fierce in the small-sized mobile phone panel market this year,” Fan said “The emphasis has been on high cost-performance (CP) ratio and that has started to squeeze the operating margins of small-sized panel manufacturers The operating margins of manufacturers late adding LTPS production lines will face considerable pressure”
Among current mid and high-end mobile phone panel suppliers, the Japanese firm Japan Display Inc (JDI) still has a 30 percent share of global LTPS production capacity Besides providing stable LTPS supply to Apple, it must seek new avenues to digest its large production JDI mobile phone panels have a technological edge over their competitors and utilize the distribution channels of Taiwan Display Inc (TDI) Together, those competitive advantages have helped JDI gain a foothold in the China market in recent years But competition in China’s mobile phone market is so intense that JDI needs to also use a low-pricing strategy to stay ahead of its competitors
The South Korean supplier Samsung Display will have to start selling its AMOLED panels previously used only in Samsung handsets to other manufacturers in 2015 as the market for high-end Samsung mobile phones cools At the same time, with the amorphous silicon production process improving, some panel manufacturers have started to try to produce a panel with a resolution higher than ppi 400 This type of panel is known as an a-Si Full-HD With JDI actively lowering prices, WitsView forecasts that there will be intense competition in the small-sized mobile phone panel market It will be a challenge for HD panels to remain profitable while FHD panel margins will also be squeezed significantly
2014/03/12
According to WitsView, the display research division of the global intelligence provider TrendForce, as major panel makers started to boost the LTPS capacity in 2013 and added the Gen 55 and Gen 6 for mass-production, the overall LTPS capacity will rise from 674Mn m2 in 2013 to 1489Mn m2 in 2016 The capacity by area is expected to more than double within three years
WitsView indicates, with the competition among China’s large-generation capacities incandescing and the demand for large-sized products easing, panel makers devote more resources to higher-technology LTPS to meet the constantly rising demand for mobile devices for recent years
For the last few years, Japanese panel makers have led ahead of its rivals on the LTPS technology and capacity with JDI becoming the world’s No1 maker on the LTPS capacity as its Gen 6 started MP in 2013, supporting makers of the nation to control 41% of the global capacity by area (SDC’s LTPS capacity used for AMOLED products is excluded)
Meanwhile, LGD has begun to expand the Gen 6 LTPS capacity, AUO has announced to shift its Kunshan investment plan from Gen 85 to Gen 6 LTPS, and Tianyi of Hon-hai group has reactivated the Gen 6 investment in Chengdu
It is projected that in 2016 the LTPS capacity market will be shifting to a domain shared by panel makers from Taiwan, Japan, Korea, and China from a segment dominated by Japanese makers AUO, with its expansion in the Gen 6 capacity, is likely to see the capacity area share jump to 16%, only second to JDI’s 216% CSOT and LGD will see the shares growing to 135% and 131% respectively
“It is an undeniable fact that panel makers of all regions focus on the demand for high-end products and aggressively work on the LTPS capacity expansion,” WitsView research manager Boyce Fan says ”However, the new capacity getting ready within these two or three years causes the aggravating concern of oversupply”
As the growth of high-end smart phones eases, if the technology development on AMOLED products would terminate Samsung’s dominance remains to be tested, and it suggests panel makers’ keys to make the LTPS capacity profitable in the future rely on the technology gaps, product yield, costs, and product pricing What can be foreseen is that with the rapidly growing expansion, panel makers’ competition in the future will get fierce, and those who secure the leader position on clients and production ability and scale will gain evident advantages
Graph 1: 2013~2016(F) Forecast for Global LTPS Capacity by Area
Source:WitsView
Graph 2: 2013&2016(F) Global Major Panel Makers’ LTPS Capacity Shares
Source:WitsView
2013/12/17
Based on the survey on the global large-sized TFT-LCD capacity by WitsView, the display division of the global intelligence provider TrendForce, as there is no large global capacity expansion in 2013 and the demand for IT products is weak, panel makers shift some of the Gen5 and Gen6 capacities to high-end products, including wide viewing angle and LTPS, and to the productions of mid-and small- sized panels and touch sensors That leads to a 21% drop in the large-sized TFT-LCD available capacity, which reaches 1949Mn m2, compared to 2012 Three new Gen85 fabs respectively built by SDC, BOE, and LGD will get operational in China in 2014, and the available capacity is expected to reach 2022 Mn m2, rising 38% from 2013
“As we observe the fluctuations between fabs of all generations, it clearly shows that the Gen5 holds a declining percentage for large-sized panel production 2013 sees an 116% drop from 2012, and what is rising is the mid-and small-sized panels which are more demanded and generate higher profits,” WitsView research manager Boyce Fan said “The trend will be even more obvious as larger-generation fabs get operational” Based on WitsView’s data, in view of the Gen85 capacity, 2014 will show 121% growth from 2013, contributed by SDC’s Gen85 in Suzhou, BOE’s Gen85 in Hefei, and LGD’s Gen85 in Guangzhou
According to WitsView’s deep analysis of the Gen5-and-above capacity in all worldwide regions, in 2015 eight Gen85 fabs will start mass-production in China, and the nation then will hold a rising proportion of Gen5-and-above capacity, from 138% in 2013 to 245%, near Taiwan’s 281% The capacity continues to rise, in contrast to the softening demand growth momentum, and downstream clients’first choices to purchase panels will be panel prices and makers with system assembly ability, enforcing Chinese makers’advantages in this domain In addition, with China’s lifted import tariff on panels, China will secure a perfect spot in the global panel supply chain and inevitably outpace Taiwan while catch up with Korea, bringing substantial impacts to Taiwan’s entire supply chain of the TFT-LCD industry
Figure: 2013-2015 Global Large-sized TFT-LCD Available Capacity
Source:WitsView
2013/09/16
Since the UHD TV became the market’s focus in 2013, TV makers have pinned the hope on the product to lift sales momentum in the sluggish market According WitsView, the display research division of the global market intelligence provider TrendForce, the UHD TVs launched by 1st tier brands usually feature high value-added functions such as 3D and smart internet connection, making the new models unaffordable Besides, the broadcasting and transmission standard that meets UHD TV spec has not established yet, and the native UHD program content is insufficient, making the UHD TV sales extremely difficult WitsView projects a penetration rate of only 08% for UHD TV panels in the 2013 panel market, and the low-cost UHD TV panel is likely to be a bright spot chased by panel makers in 2014, seeing a penetration rate up to 2%
Panel makers emphasize on the spec at the beginning of development, including 120Hz and 3D with mostly sizes of 50” and above The main mass-produced sizes are 55” and 65” to underline the UHD TV’s high-end position, which have costs higher than the FHD panel by 15-16 times However, INX has a distinct strategy on the UHD TV by not only adopting the sizes under 50”, including 39”, 42”, and 50”, but lowering the product spec to enter the Chinese market with advantages of low costs As long as the set selling price comes to the sweet point for consumers, the market scale is likely to further expand
WitsView research manager Boyce Fan says the key to produce the low-cost UHD TV is to cut the frame rate and reduce the use of key components such as driver IC and Tcon, meanwhile, the panel transparency must be lifted to drive down the BLU module cost and boost the panel production yield
Besides, the formation of “One Tcon Solution” will largely simplify the signal transmission structure between the TV system end and the panel end, a development direction for the upcoming new UHD TV models Generally speaking, the cost gap between the UHD TV panel and the FHD can be narrowed to 13-14 times by adjusting the spec and simplifying the structure, and the gap would approach to 11-12 times with the rising yield
In addition to the cost concern, based on the UHD TV panel price changes and the set retail prices, it can be found that the high-end 65” UHD panel has a 15 time price gap with the FHD, while the low-cost 50” has gap within 13 times For the TV set retail selling price gap, the 65” has a selling price gap as large as 3 times between the UHD and the FHD models in North America, while it is only a 15 time gap between the 50” UHD and FHD TVs in China Under the current economic environment, WitsView believes prices remain the main drivers to consumption
Low-cost UHD TV panels indeed gain traction in China, encouraging other panel makers to restart the product development for the 50” and under WitsView projects the low-cost UHD TV panel is likely to become a star product focused by major panel makers, and its penetration rate will possibly attain 2% in 2014
Figure: Forecast of UHD TV Panel Penetration Rate
Source：WitsView
