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keyword：Boyce Fan，
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2018/12/13
According to The Future of Smartphone Era Webinar by WitsView, a division of TrendForce, the global smartphone market has been approaching saturation, with less room for product differentiation Thus, smartphone makers have shifted their focus to next-generation foldable models WitsView expects the first foldable smartphone to be launched in 2019, accounting for only 01% in the global smartphone market The penetration rate is estimated to reach 15% in 2021
According to Boyce Fan, the research director of WitsView, a few manufacturers tried to develop foldable models in the past using a dual-screen design, but most of them failed However, as breakthroughs continue to be made during the development of flexible AMOLED panels, single-screen foldable smartphones gradually emerge Among the makers, Samsung takes a leading role with its advanced display technology
Product differentiation is harder with a more saturated market, impacting Samsung’s smartphone business in recent years Its AMOLED models can no longer trigger strong demand as before Together with increasing competition from Chinese smartphone brands in the emerging markets, Samsung’s smartphone business has come to a bottleneck and needs new demand momentum for growth Therefore, WitsView believes that Samsung is highly like to release the first foldable smartphone in the market next year as an attempt not only to define a new concept for smartphone hardware, but to consolidate its leading position in the global smartphone market
Although foldable phones have become the focus of the market, they still remain in the early stage of product development, so manufacturers are bound to improve the designs continuously, says Fan Samsung’s current concept foldable phone adopts an inward folding design, which requires an extra display outside for the front cover Thus a key to good user experience will be the interface optimization for the transition between the display inside and outside Meanwhile, there is also room for improvement in terms of the thickness of the phone and the border, as well as the battery life
The design of outward folding is an alternative considered by many manufacturers, but it involves additional challenges like how to balance the strength, thickness and flexibility of the protective CPI films or protective cover glass, and how to increase the display materials’ ductility, malleability, and credibility when folded Therefore, the time needed for developing outward folding phones would be even longer
In addition to Samsung, other smartphone vendors like Huawei, LG, Google and Lenovo have started to plan for launching foldable models, but even longer time is needed because they are still constrained by the lack of alternative panel suppliers other than Samsung WitsView believes that the initial demand for foldable smartphones will not be very strong, considering the need for product optimization, lack of flexible AMOLED panel suppliers other than Samsung, and the looming demand in the market The segment of foldable smartphones will not have a chance to expand until the second half of 2019 or after 2020, when more manufacturers follow suit to launch foldable models and get more feedback from the market
Find out more in TrendForce’s upcoming webinar The Future of Smartphone Era to gain insights into trends in the global smartphone industry and how phone makers initiate breakthrough in specs:
https://webinartrendforcecn/smartphone_trend_2019_webinar-en/indexhtml
2018/11/08
According to WitsView, a division of TrendForce, the market has witnessed stronger demand for full-screen smartphones while higher screen-to-body ratio has become a major trend of this year In order to make bezels narrower, drive ICs for mid- and high-end phones have been switching from solutions based on Chip-on-Glass (COG) packaging to those on Chip-on-Film (COF) packaging With major smartphone vendors actively adopting COF solutions, the percentage of models using COF packaging would account for 35% of the global smartphone market in 2019, a significant increase from 165% in 2018
“In the past, most driver ICs used in smartphones adopted COG packaging, which requires more room at the bottom of display panel for chip bonding, so the bottom bezel is normally larger than side bezels and top bezel”, says Boyce Fan, research director of WitsView However, the recent bezel-less trend on smartphones has shaped the design of panels High-end models have started to use COF package, in which driver IC is moved to the back of display panel, thus enabling a narrower bottom bezel WitsView notes that COF package is only used in flexible AMOLED panels previously, but will see higher penetration this year after Apple adopted this packaging technology in its 2018 new models Other brands are expected to follow suit for their high-end models
However, the stronger demand for COF package has resulted in a tight supply of tape, a necessary material for this packaging technology The tapes have also seen rising quotes, which are rare in recent years In the past, tapes are only used in large size COF panels, thus remaining in oversupply for a long time Despite the rising number of high-end smartphones using COF packaging, WitsView does not discount the possibility that smartphone designers return to COG packaging because COF will increase the material costs for smartphones For example, FHD+ 6MUX TDDI IC, which is currently in development, adopts COG packaging rather than COF Considering the demand uncertainty, tape manufacturers may not be very active to expand production capacity
With little production expansion yet higher demand for COF package from smartphone vendors, WitsView expects the COF substrates to see a tight supply As the result, large size panel makers and smartphone makers may need to compete to secure the supply of COF substrates
2018/09/04
The share of In-Cell solutions in the global smartphone market is estimated to reach 271% in 2018, marginal up from 262% of last year, according to the latest research on touch display solutions by WitsView, a division of TrendForce This is due to the rapid adoption by Android smartphones, despite the fact that the new iPhones this year will not adopt In-Cell solutions Particularly, the share of TDDI (Touch with Display Driver Integration) In-Cell solutions is likely to grow significantly to 173%, although the IC products for TDDI In-Cell products experience a tight supply
“Branded smartphone vendors are now more willing to adopt TDDI In-Cell solutions, thanks to the maturation of IC products for TDDI and more IC suppliers’ entrance into the market”, says Boyce Fan, research director of WitsView Despite the tight supply of wafer in the first half of 2018, smartphone vendors have actively searched for alternatives from second-tier IC manufacturers or foundries, or switched to Out-Cell design, so the overall supply and demand of TDDI IC has returned to a rational level in the second half of the year Although the new iPhone models this year will adopt Out-Cell solutions, the share of TDDI In-Cell solutions is likely to grow significantly to 173%, up from 89% of last year driven by the promotion of IC manufacturers and panel makers
“Right now, smartphones makers have been constantly optimizing the design of full-screen models, while pursuing narrower borders, which will jointly drive the development of TDDI IC products,” says Fan For example, the adoption of Dual Gate in HD+ products and MUX6 in FHD+ products is aimed to narrow the border at the side of IC Bonding Moreover, in order to cope with the tight supply, IC design houses have been exploring new capacity of wafer supply and may also consider the transition into more advanced processes, smaller IC sizes and new specs
WitsView notes that the demand remains strong, and the tight supply of TDDI IC will be gradually eased with the new capacity Therefore, the share of TDDI In-Cell solutions in the global smartphone market would continue to grow to 243% in 2019
2018/06/21
The global production capacity of small- and medium-sized AMOLED panels continues to expand, and will reach 136 million m2 by 2018, an increase of 511% compared with the previous year, says WitsView, a division of TrendForce As Chinese panel makers continue to release new capacity, the global capacity of small- and medium-sized AMOLED panels may double to 273 million m2 in 2021
“AMOLED panels have become the focus of market after the adoption of iPhone”, says Boyce Fan, Research Director of WitsView This market trend has most benefited Samsung Display (SDC), which has an absolute edge over its rivals in productivity and technology of AMOLED panels However, as the mobile phone market entered the off-season in 1Q18, the demand for AMOLED panels began to drop substantially, which in turn lowered SDC's utilization rate of its production lines As the result, SDC has actively adjusted its pricing strategy to reduce the price differences between AMOLED panels and LTPS panels, improving the utilization rate of production lines However, the demand for mobile phone panels appears to hugely different between peak-season and off-season, the customer base is too concentrated as well, SDC decided to postpone the plan to invest the new Gen 6 fab
Chinese panel makers continue to release new capacity, and will contribute to 37% of the global capacity in 2021
Chinese panel makers’ investment in new AMOLED panel capacity is on the rise, due to the high demand for AMOLED panels from branded Chinese manufacturers coupled with the government's supporting policy For example, BOE’s first Gen 6 fab of flexible AMOLED panel has entered mass production in Chengdu at the end of 2017 Tianma and Visionox also expect the mass production of flexible AMOLED panel in their Gen 6 fabs in 2018 In the next few years, both Everdisplay Optronics (EDO) and China Star Optoelectronics Technology (CSOT) have also put forward plans for AMOLED panel production It is estimated that the production capacity of small- and medium-sized AMOLED panels in China will contribute to 37% of the global capacity in 2021, up from 16% in 2018 Meanwhile, the proportion of capacity in South Korea will be 53% in 2021, down from 81% in 2018
The market may see oversupply, notebook and automotive applications may help consume the capacity
The continuous investment in AMOLED panels may lead to oversupply in the market Even the market leader SDC may have to strike a balance between consuming capacity and making profits WitsView notes that the production capacity of rigid AMOLED panels has become stable with few possibility of large-scale expansion, and mobile phones have been the main application to consume current capacity In this situation, the market will next explore new applications of rigid AMOLED panels in the notebook and automotive fields
As for the currently expanding capacity of flexible AMOLED panels, the market situation will depend on when foldable AMOLED mobile phones can come out Foldable AMOLED mobile phones will not only bring innovations to the smartphone market, but also help panel makers consume considerable production capacity because screens of foldable mobile phones will be twice as large as traditional ones
2018/03/08
MWC 2018 has concluded and major smartphone vendors at the event have unveiled their smartphone lineup for this year, revealing the development trends in smartphone technology and specifications According to WitsView, a division of TrendForce, full-screen smartphones will become the trend in market this year The pursuit of narrower bezels and notch designs has emerged, bringing about solutions of under-display fingerprint sensor and applications combining camera modules and facial recognition
Smartphone panel makers enter a new round of specification war, full-screen and notch design become the market focus
According to Boyce Fan, research director of WitsView, full-screen smartphones have become the focus of market since 2017 The new models launched by Samsung and Apple have led to designs of higher screen-to-body ratio Smartphone brands will be changing the overall appearance of their devices as a way to upgrade hardware specifications, especially in the situation that smartphone market goes saturated and replacement purchases decrease In addition to Samsung, LG Electronic and many Chinese brands who already have active layout, even Sony, who tends to be more conservative, has officially launched its full-screen flagship model in MWC this year WitsView expects that the penetration rate of full-screen models in the all smartphones will rise rapidly to 446% in 2018, and reach 90% in 2021
Notch design is another focus for vendors this year since Apple released iPhone X with notch design and 3D facial recognition in 2017 Some panel makers are actively purchasing panel cutting equipment to meet the different needs of clients in product development “The positioning and penetration of products are influenced by patent issues of notch design, consumers’ acceptance of it, as well as the manufacturing difficulty and derivative costs of notch design”, says Fan Therefore, WitsView estimates that the penetration rate of models with notch design in smartphones will be 157% in 2018 and 269% in 2021
To-be-established standard for 5G telecommunication is expected to bring a new wave of replacement purchase
Fan also points out that the life cycle of 4G telecommunication standard has entered the middle and final stages The trend of large-scale replacement purchases in the past 3 to 4 years is slowing down, so the market has shifted the focus to emerging 5G technology WitsView notes that European and American manufacturers used to initiate the drafting of communication protocol However, with the rise and expansion of Chinese manufacturers, they have also actively participated in the formulation of 5G standard so as to seize market opportunities The 5G standard has significant improvements in bandwidth and Internet speed, indicating the coming age of all-connected At the same time, with improvements in computing power of mobile devices, more diverse and new applications will be created in fields of AI, AR/VR, etc
