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2020/05/07
According to the latest investigations by the WitsView research division of TrendForce, the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has diminished the global production of smartphones and also affected the market shares of different display panel technologies used in smartphones As smartphone brands are proactive in adopting AMOLED panels for their phones, the penetration rate of AMOLED phones in the overall smartphone market is still projected to increase from 310% in 2019 to 356% in 2020 On the other hand, the penetration rate of TFT-LCD phones (including those with LTPS or a-Si panels) is projected to undergo a yearly decrease
The growing influence of Chinese panel manufacturers will likely result in China occupying 35% of global AMOLED production capacity in 2020
TrendForce Research Director Boyce Fan indicates that most smartphone brands are implementing AMOLED panels for their flagship models in 2020 Case in point, all of Apple’s new phones to be released in 2H20 are expected to adopt AMOLED panels Therefore, although the current forecasted 356% penetration rate of AMOLED smartphones is lower than the pre-pandemic forecast of 377%, it still exceeds the 310% penetration rate seen in 2019 Furthermore, newly added production capacity of AMOLED panels is expected to continue increasing, in particular the production capacity of Chinese panel manufacturers, which are expected to account for 35% of global AMOLED panel capacity by area in 2020, a significant increase from 26% in 2019 Chinese panel manufacturers will likely look to increase their capacity utilization and yield rates in order to grow their influences and become part of major smartphone brands’ supply chains
For the past two years, the industry has seen a slowdown in the expansion of LTPS panel capacity, accompanied by a corresponding stabilization of panel supply Because of their hypercompetitive prices, narrow borders, and low power consumption, LTPS panels have gradually become the mainstream choice for smartphone displays, thus forcing a-Si panels into the entry-level market However, the surge of AMOLED panel supply is already starting to erode the shares of LTPS panels in the mid-range and high-end smartphone markets In addition, as the pandemic’s impact on the smartphone market is gradually manifesting, smartphone brands are leaning towards lengthening the shelf time of older models or even increasing the number of entry-level phones, in turn damaging the presence of LTPS phones in the mid-range segment The market share of LTPS phones is expected to fall from 402% in 2019 to 378% in 2020, but the magnitude of this decrease somewhat surpasses the expected drop for a-Si phones, which are projected to see a decrease in market share from 288% in 2019 to 266% in 2020
The presence of AMOLED phones in the smartphone market will continue to expand in the long run, with AMOLED phones eventually becoming the mainstream while crowding out the shares of TFT-LCD (including LTPS and a-Si) phones That means LTPS panel manufacturers, whose production capacity primarily focused on smartphones, must look to other revenue drivers, including notebook computer panels, tablet panels, or automotive display panels, to maintain their capacity utilization rates
2019/12/12
According to the latest analysis from the WitsView research division of TrendForce, as electronic device manufacturers start to develop product strategies for the 2020 market driven by the commercialization of 5G technology, foundries are likewise raising their capacity utilization rates Specifically, 8-inch and 12-inch wafer fabs of large foundries are estimated to reach near-maximum production capacities in 4Q19, thus compressing the supply of large-sized DDI and small-sized TDDI
TrendForce research director Boyce Fan indicates that while most large-sized DDIs were previously produced at several different process nodes (03-02µm, 01Xµm), following two to three years of production shift, they are now primarily produced at 01Xµm nodes in 8-inch fabs Foundries are starting to compress the initial supply of DDI, however, in favor of meeting the recent demand for more profitable products, such as fingerprint sensors, power management IC, and entry-level CMOS sensors The current market for large-sized panels faces the dual problem of both oversupply and weak demand in the off-season But these factors are expected to be counterbalanced as panel manufacturers adjust their production capacities, and TV panel ASP bottoms out TrendForce forecasts the possibility of tight supply in the 1H20 large-sized DDI market once client demand starts to skyrocket
Because there were significant supply shortages of smartphone TDDI in 1H18, IC manufacturers began migrating their TDDI process nodes from 80nm nodes to 55nm nodes in an effort to mitigate supply risks However, most clients have been unwilling to adopt HD Dual Gate and FHD 6MUX TDDI, both produced at 55nm nodes in 2019, because the former suffered from product certification issues, while the latter yielded subpar product performance As a result, most cellphones still contain 80nm TDDI chips On the other hand, as China-based AMOLED panel manufacturers entered the mass production stage, the demand for OLED DDI began to soar IC manufacturers are expected to concentrate their production capacity on 40nm and 28nm processes in 2020 As some of the foundries increase the production of 40nm and 28nm process nodes, their production capacity at the 80nm node is likely to undergo a corresponding decline due to equipment constraints, in turn decreasing their TDDI production IC manufacturers are expected to begin producing TDDI at the 55nm nodes to compensate for the decline in TDDI production in 80nm nodes again
Rising market penetration rate of high frame rate phones can help mitigate potential risks in TDDI supply
Because high-bandwidth 5G services are starting to become more widespread, and the esports industry is undergoing significant growth, smartphone brands consider high frame rate display panels (90Hz+) to be the primary differentiator of smartphone specifications in 2020 As well, IC manufacturers are restarting the production of 90Hz/120Hz TDDI ICs at their 55nm process nodes in hopes of integrating these ICs in TFT-LCD-equipped phones In addition to TFT-LCD-equipped phones, 90Hz displays are also starting to become a major selling point in newer, AMOLED-equipped flagship models TrendForce projects that high frame rate phones are expected to exceed a 10% market penetration rate, with the possibility of becoming the industry standard in flagship phones As the market continues to rapidly mature, high frame rate phones can help mitigate the potential risks involved in TDDI supply for IC manufacturers in 2020
2019/10/24
According to the latest analysis from the WitsView research division of TrendForce, the share of devices featuring AMOLED panels is expected to grow from 328% in 2019 to 380% in 2020 in the global smartphone marketplace, in response to an ever-increasing production capacity and smartphone makers' willingness to adopt the technology In contrast, the market share of LTPS-equipped devices is expected to drop from 413% down to 386% The market shares for AMOLED- and LTPS-equipped devices are roughly even, with the former possibly taking the lead in the future
Boyce Fan, research director at TrendForce, argues that AMOLED panels are able to establish dominance in the high-end smartphone market because of increased adoption by smartphone makers, owing to Samsung Display's successful pricing strategies; furthermore, AMOLED is the only panel technology that enables integration of under-display fingerprint sensors Aside from Samsung and Apple, the largest smartphone makers in China are aggressively incorporating AMOLED panels into their product lines, in turn accelerating the expansion of Chinese panel manufacturers' AMOLED production capabilities
Most of China's growing AMOLED production capacity is dedicated to flexible AMOLED panels As a result, Samsung Display controls the vast majority of global rigid AMOLED production The maturity of rigid AMOLED technology, combined with its superior cost and yield, makes it Samsung's weapon of choice in the fight for market shares, with the implication of reduced mid-range and high-end smartphone LTPS panel shares TrendForce holds the opinion that, given the constant production capacity of rigid AMOLED panels, should demand increase in 2020, the supply and demand of rigid AMOLED panels will present a balanced or slightly tight market, since Chinese flexible AMOLED production is as of yet uncompetitive
On the other hand, LTPS panels, which once occupied the mid-range and high-end smartphone segments, are now facing an adverse market economy stemming from hypercompetitive prices As such, profit margins are significantly reduced for panel manufacturers However, with bezel-less phones becoming the norm in 2019, production speed for Dual Gate TDDI-equipped a-Si HD In-Cell panels is failing to match projected figures This creates a point of market entry for LTPS panels and an incentive to transform production capacity towards the development of LTPS HD devices, in turn making up for lost high-end market shares in the low-end and mid-range markets As well, LTPS manufacturers without a reliable customer base are starting to adapt by closing down non-essential production lines and moving towards non-smartphone applications of LTPS panels to alleviate pressure from reduced LTPS demand caused by competition from AMOLED makers
TrendForce projects a growth in the demand for flexible AMOLED panels, which will effect a further increase in the global market shares of AMOLED-equipped smartphones In contrast, rigid AMOLED panels have limited growth potential due to supply limitations It remains to be seen whether LTPS panels can fill the gap left by unfulfilled demand for rigid AMOLED panels, and whether this allows LTPS supply and demand to reach a healthy equilibrium
2019/03/07
As smartphone markets become saturated, suppliers look to foldable phones as a potential demand-stimulating design Samsung and Huawei etc have put several concept phones on display in MWC 2019 WitsView, a division of TrendForce, holds that foldable phones are still in the stages of market-response observation and product-design adjustment, and predicts for them a meager smartphone market penetration rate of 01% in 2019 Foldable phones penetration rates will have to wait until more panel providers join the game and panel costs see significant improvements for a chance to rise above 1% in 2021, and accelerate past 34% in 2022
WitsView's Research Director, Boyce Fan, points out that the most significant design difference between Samsung and Huawei lies in the inward/outward folding choice Samsung adopted a dual-screen design with an outer screen and an inward-folding screen; Huawei on the other hand adopted a single, outward-folding screen design Overall, the inward/outward designs each have their own advantages, but they are still far from ideal WitsView considers the outward-folding design as more intuitive, since it reduces the need for an additional screen, yet retains interchangeability between both phone and tablet modes
The main problem with outward-folding phones lie with the plastic base material currently used for its protective cover, which raises concerns over durability and scratch-resistances This may also be why Samsung chose an inward design over an outer one Inward designs, however , are far more demanding technologically due to the small bending radius at the folding point; much effort must be made when adjusting processes and selecting materials Samsung has filed a considerable number of patents on this area, which goes to show that Samsung possesses a certain degree of technological superiority in inward designs
On the other hand, it remains for time to tell whether protective covers will embrace ultra-thin glass materials once more Apart from the developments in material specifications, it is also worth observing in smartphone markets whether consumers, who have gotten used to the feel and look of glass protective covers, are willing to accept phones covered in plastic
China's Flexible AMOLED Production Capacity to Catch Up with Korean Suppliers After 2020
Looking at the supply side, there aren't that many suppliers able to provide a steady flow of foldable panels Samsung relies on its own panels and isn't worried about supply shortage; Huawei on the other hand is dependent on China's panel manufacturers, but the scale may still be limited by current technology and yield rate Other smartphone brands suffer from a lack of stable panel supply, which may prove to be the bigger bottleneck in the early stages of foldable-phone developments
WitsView observes that China's panel manufacturers are still only in the initial stages of flexible AMOLED panel development and possess limited actual supply potential—their current production capacity only make up about 27% worldwide, with Korean manufacturers gaining the absolute upper hand short-term China's panel manufacturers will, however, allow its newfound flexible AMOLED production capacity to contribute to production in the coming 2~3 years; they will catch up with Korean panel manufacturers in flexible AMOLED production capacity after 2020 After supply rises and competition increases, panel prices may finally have a chance to drop Moreover, China's smartphone brands reach a wide audience in the global market,and have a great potential need for AMOLED panels and foldable phones—both factors will prove somewhat beneficial in digesting the production capacity of China's panel manufacturers in the future
WitsView points out that in these current early stages of foldable phone development, penetration rate growth will not only be directly affected by high prices, but also be limited in large part due to uncertainty of the added value foldable phones may provide consumers with Thus it remains to be seen how suppliers will convince consumers and stimulate sales by software and UI optimization and integrating the unique nature of foldable phones The high transmission speeds and low latency that 5G boasts and the size-adjustability of foldable phones may furthermore boost user experience with these devices It is predicted that as 5G gradually finds widespread use starting from 2021, foldable phones will fall into place production capacity- and technology-wise to ride the revolutionary wave and begin their ascent in market penetration rates
2019/02/14
The latest analysis of the panel market by WitsView, a division of TrendForce, finds that low prices and technological maturation have substantially widened the adoption of LTPS panels among smartphone makers The share of devices featuring LTPS panels in the global smartphone market is projected to grow from 376% in 2018 to 416% in 2019 However, panel suppliers have ended large-scale expansions of their production capacity for LTPS panels since they are gradually shifting their technological focus for smartphone displays to AMOLED On the whole, 2019 is expected to be a year during which the market for LTPS panels will be at its healthiest state in terms of supply and demand
Boyce Fan, the research director of WitsView, pointed out that the activation of the new Gen-6 LTPS lines in China has expanded the total production capacity and ratcheted up the price competition among suppliers Furthermore, panel suppliers have steadily improved their LTPS manufacturing processes and generally attained a decent level of technical maturity Hence, smartphone makers are now more receptive to the adoption of the LTPS technology, which is also seeing a rapid increase in its market visibility
On the other hand, the price decline for LTPS panels is easing due to new trends in smartphone design and panel manufacturing “The screen of devices has become larger because the full-screen design is now the market mainstream,” said Fan “At the same time, the notch cut-out and the use of the COF (chip-on-film) package for driver ICs have made panel fabrication more challenging and increased the amount of waste glass during the process These observations imply that the area of glass needed for producing smartphone panels has expanded in order compensate for the lower yield rate, and this in turn is pushing the LTPS market toward a more stable supply-demand balance”
Panel suppliers have steadily shifted their focus to AMOLED in their development of smartphone panels, and they are now aggressively boosting their production capacity for the technology The total production capacity for AMOLED panels is expected to keep growing over the next few years, raising the chance of oversupply Conversely, the growth in the total production capacity for LTPS panels has tapered off Because prices of LTPS panels are now relatively low, there is a greater potential for raising the consumption of the LTPS capacity as smartphone makers look for ways to upgrade the hardware specifications of their devices Moreover, LTPS is gradually making inroads in other applications as well, such as in-vehicle displays and notebook displays WitsView therefore believes that the market for LTPS panels will move away from oversupply and reach a healthy equilibrium in the short term
WitsView also contends that the prospect of the LTPS technology maintaining its market leadership during the next several years will hinge on the progress that the Chinese panel suppliers have made in advancing their AMOLED technology Chinese panel suppliers are currently ramping up production on their new AMOLED lines, and WitsView expects that the supply pressure on the AMOLED market will build up to a very high level in 2020 Some of the new production lines in China will also have been in operation for more than a year in 2020 The capacity growth, together with anticipated improvements in the cost and technical aspects of the manufacturing process, will probably make AMOLED more of a threat to the market share of LTPS by that time
The competition between LTPS and AMOLED in the mid-to-high range of the smartphone market has been especially fierce and will intensify in the future When AMOLED edges out LTPS and becomes mainstream in the mid-to-high range segment, then the market for the latter technology will again face oversupply To mitigate the effect of this anticipated scenario, suppliers of LTPS panels will be concentrating their promotional efforts in the lower rungs of of the smartphone market This move in turn will accelerate the decline in market share for the a-Si technology in the lower-end segments Suppliers of LTPS panels can also adjust their product mixes to give more weight to applications other than smartphone displays In sum, targeting the lower-end segments of the smartphone market and developing products for other applications are likely going to be the main components of a strategy to lessen the market impact from the maturation of the AMOLED technology
