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2022/10/05
According to TrendForce's latest panel price report, TV panel pricing is expected to arrest its fall in October after five consecutive quarters of decline and the prices of certain panel sizes may even be poised to move up The price decline of IT panels, whether notebook panels or LCD monitor panels, has also begun showing signs of easing and overall pricing of large-size panels is developing towards bottoming out
TrendForce indicates, with panel makers actively implementing production reduction plans, TV inventories have also experienced a period of adjustment, with pressure gradually being alleviated At the same time, the arrival of peak sales season at year’s end has also boosted demand marginally In particular, Chinese brands are still holding out hope for Double Eleven (Singles’ Day) Shopping Festival promotions and have begun to increase their stocking momentum in turn Under the influence of strictly controlled utilization rate and marginally stronger demand, TV panel pricing, which are approaching the limit of material costs, is expected to halt its decline in October Prices of panels below 75 inches (inclusive) are expected to cease their declines The strength of demand for 32-inch products is the most obvious and prices are expected to increase by US$1 As for other sizes, it is currently understood that PO (Purchase Order) quotations given by panel manufacturers in October have are all increased by US$3~5 Currently China's Golden Week holiday is ongoing but, after the holiday, panel manufacturers and brands are expected to wrestle with pricing Based on prices stabilizing, whether pricing can actually be increased still depends on the intensity of demand generated by branded manufacturers for different sized products
TrendForce observes that current demand for monitor panels is weak, and brands are poorly motivated to stock goods At the same time, the implementation of production cuts by panel manufacturers has played a role and room for price negotiation has gradually narrowed At present, the decline in panel pricing has slowed Prices of small-size TN panels below 215 inches (inclusive) are expected to cease declining in October due to reduced supply and flat demand As for mainstream sizes such as 238 and 27-inch, price declines are expected to be within US$15 The current demand for notebook panels is also weak and customers must still face high inventory issues and are relatively unwilling to buy panels Panel makers are also trying to slow the decline in panel prices through their implementation of production reduction plans Declining panel prices are currently expected to continue abating in October Pricing for 14-inch and 156-inch HD TN panels are expected to drop by US$02~03, falling from a 18% drop in September to 07%, while pricing for 14-inch and 156-inch FHD IPS panels are expected to fall by US$1~12, falling from a 34% drop in September to 24%
Compared with past instances when TV panels drove a supply/demand reversal through a sharp increase in demand and spiking prices, this current period of lagging TV panel pricing has been halted and reversed through active control of utilization rates by panel manufacturers and a slight increase in demand momentum The basis for this break in decline and subsequent price increase is relatively weak Therefore, in order to maintain the strength of this price backstop and eventual escalation and move towards a healthier supply/demand situation, panel manufacturers must continue to strictly and prudently control the utilization rate of TV production lines, in addition to observing whether sales performance from the forthcoming Chinese festivals beat expectations, allowing stocking momentum to continue, and laying a solid foundation for TV panels to completely escape sluggish market conditions
The price of IT panels has also adhered to the effect of production reduction and the magnitude of its price drops has gradually eased TrendForce believes, since the capacity for supplying IT panels is still expanding into the future, it is difficult to see declines in mainstream panel prices halt completely when demand remains weak Even if new production capacity from Chinese panel factories is gradually completed starting from 2023, price competition in the IT panel market will intensify once products are verified by branded clients, so potential downward pressure in pricing still exists
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2020/11/05
As the COVID-19 pandemic caused flagship smartphones to turn in lower-than-expected sales performances in 1H20, the market share of AMOLED phones fell short of forecasts made in early 2020, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations The market share of AMOLED phones for 2020 is expected to reach 33%, a 2% increase YoY, thanks to the release of Apple’s new iPhone 12 models in 2H20 LTPS LCD smartphones are likewise undergoing sluggish demand this year; their market share is projected to reach 38%, a 2% decrease YoY On the other hand, the majority of smartphone market demand has reemerged for the entry-level and mid-range segments, thereby lending support to the demand for a-Si LCD smartphones, some of which are now in short supply The market share of smartphones with a-Si displays is estimated to reach 29% this year, remaining relatively unchanged from 2019
However, as the pandemic is slowly brought under control in 2H20, the demand for smartphones has made a gradual return to stable levels as well, with downstream smartphone brands beginning to step up their panel procurement activities Huawei, for instance, stocked up on smartphone panels in 3Q20 ahead of the US sanction’s September 15 deadline, thus providing some upward momentum for entry-level and mid-range smartphone panel demand In 4Q20, other smartphone brands have similarly been stocking up in preparation for the upcoming smartphone demand in 2021, while the shortage of TDDI persists Therefore, the demand for entry-level and mid-range smartphone panels is projected to last until 1H21 In light of this, TrendForce projects the market share of a-Si smartphone displays to undergo only a slight decline in 2021, reaching 28%
With regards to high-end smartphone panels, on the other hand, the market has become hypercompetitive as Korean AMOLED panel suppliers aggressively pursue client orders, and Chinese panel makers construct additional AMOLED panel fabs As such, smartphone manufacturers are expected to increase their adoption of AMOLED panels, and the resultant upward momentum will likely propel the market share of AMOLED smartphone displays to 38% in 2021 In other words, the share of LTPS displays in the smartphone market will be constrained by both rising demand for high-end AMOLED phones and momentum from entry-level and mid-range a-Si phones These constraints will be detrimental to the overall LTPS capacity utilization rate and profitability, in turn forcing panel makers to accelerate their strategies to expend LTPS panel capacities
TrendForce believes that panel makers' major LTPS capacity allocation plans will include not only their current smartphone applications, but also notebook panels or tablet panels, both of which are trending towards mid-sized dimensions The market for LTPS notebook panels has gradually expanded due to Taiwanese panel makers’ developmental efforts in the past few years In this market, Chinese panel makers are expected to become competitors in the supply chain going forward Furthermore, LTPS panels will see further application in the automotive panel market, which is more niche compared to the notebook and tablet markets Japanese and Korean panel makers currently maintain a competitive advantage in automotive panel manufacturing, followed closely by Taiwanese and Chinese companies Alternatively, technological development in Mini LED and Micro LED has become an important topic in panel industry in the past two years, with panel makers successively investing resources into backplanes for these emerging display technologies LTPS technology appears promising as a potential backplane for Mini LED and Micro LED displays, while also serving as an avenue for expending panel makers’ excess capacities
2020/09/08
Given the high demand for display panels, a tight supply situation for DDI has begun to surface in 2H20, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations As prices of foundry services rose due to the tight supply of foundry capacity, IC suppliers’ DDI quotes to panel makers in turn also began rising in 3Q20 This uptrend in DDI quotes will potentially continue in 4Q20
Demand from WFH and distance education applications generated by the COVID-19 pandemic has benefitted the IT panel market and especially the NB panel segment, leading to a rising demand for DDI On the other hand, new electronic product applications have taken up an increasing allocation of 8-inch foundry capacities in the past year In particular, 5G smartphones require double or even triple the number of PMICs used in 4G smartphones As foundry capacity for DDI becomes more and more constricted, DDI suppliers have resorted to accepting the higher quotes from foundries in order to ensure a sufficient level of wafer capacity as other products are also competing for foundries’ limited capacities
High demand for entry-level and mid-range phones led to HD TDDI shortage in 3Q20
TDDI IC for small-sized displays also went into a shortage in 3Q20, primarily because of the massive increase in demand for entry-level and mid-range HD smartphones Because the HD smartphone segment is highly cost-sensitive, these smartphones place a high demand for foundries’ 12-inch 80nm production capacities However, some foundries are in the midst of transitioning some of their wafer capacities from the 80nm node to the 55nm node, leading to a severe shortage in the supply of 80nm TDDI and subsequently driving up IC prices
Tablet TDDI demand results in further shortage of wafer capacity for DDI
On the other hand, as tablet panels began integrating TDDI In-Cell solutions on a massive scale this year, the demand for TDDI IC used exclusively for tablet panels has gradually risen as well, occupying some of the 80nm production capacities at foundries Since the TDDI IC ASP of tablet panels is higher than that of smartphone panels, wafer input for the former product is further exacerbating the foundry capacity shortage situation for the latter product
Production capacity made available due to Huawei sanctions is insufficient to reverse the tight capacity supply situation
The recently expanded sanctions against Huawei by the US government will have dire ramifications on Huawei’s smartphone manufacturing next year TrendForce believes that, although Huawei’s inability to order wafer starts can indirectly alleviate the tight wafer capacity of some foundries, 8-inch and 12-inch wafer capacities on the whole are expected to remain tight despite the extra foundry capacity made available in Huawei’s absence This shortage in 8-inch and 12-inch wafer capacity can mostly be attributed to the growing demand for 5G smartphone components
With regards to the supply of large-sized DDI, in the short run, IC suppliers will have to accept the price hike of foundry services, while this increased price will be transferred to panel makers as well At the same time, IC suppliers will also investigate the possibility of transitioning the manufacturing process for NB panel DDI from the 8-inch 01xµm process node to the 12-inch 90nm node In terms of small-sized TDDI, however, as the supply of 12-inch 80nm capacity remains tight going forward, FHD TDDI manufacturing will transition to the 12-inch 55nm node instead Finally, the lack of 80nm capacity means IC suppliers must transition their HD TDDI to the 12-inch 55nm node in order to maintain the supply of HD TDDI
2020/06/18
According to the latest investigations by the WitsView research division of TrendForce, foundries have maintained a high level of capacity utilization in 1H20 in spite of disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic In particular, the node capacities of mainstream process technologies used for DDI production are showing a tight supply situation that is unlikely to be alleviated even in 2H20 There is a high possibility for foundry capacities allocated for DDI production to be compressed by other applications in 2H20, in turn potentially resulting in a price hike for DDIs
TrendForce indicates that demand from large-sized DDI wafer input has remained relative stable despite drastic changes in the demand for display panels since the onset of COVID-19 in early 2020 While most IC applications are produced at 8-inch fabs, specifically at their 01X µm process nodes, foundries have not expanded their 8-inch capacities by a significant amount As such, DDI manufacturers had to maintain their level of wafer input orders at foundries out of necessity, driven by the possibility that, once they reduced their levels of wafer input, they would be unable to subsequently recover their originally assigned production capacity at foundries after DDI demand ramps up later on Even so, IT panel demand underwent a sudden surge in 2Q20, and manufacturers could not supply enough DDI to meet the rising IT panel demand even though DDI manufacturers attempted to adjust their existing product mix given their assigned wafer capacities at foundries Therefore, the issue of tight supply yet remains an unresolved problem for large-sized DDI manufacturers
The demand for smartphones has plummeted considerably owing to the pandemic’s impact, with certain smartphone brands reacting to this market slump in the short term by extending the lifecycle of older smartphone models or expanding the lineups of entry-level and mid-range models, in turn slowing down the pace of mainstream TDDI IC process technology’s transition from the 80nm node to the 55nm node for 12 inch wafers Case in point, most smartphone brands have decided to continue using TDDI ICs manufactured with 80nm process technology and slow down their plans of transitioning to 55nm TDDI ICs (such as high frame rate TDDI ICs) due to cost concerns and a slowdown in the mass production of new smartphone models With regards to new specifications of 55nm TDDI ICs, although R&D and mass production plans are still underway, they have now taken a more gradual pace
TrendForce’s observations find that, as foundries continue to scale down their 6-inch wafer capacities, client demand has been increasingly focused on 8-inch production capacities In addition, the surging demand for emerging applications, including 5G applications, PMIC, fingerprint recognition, and CMOS sensors, has led to an increasingly tight supply situation for foundries’ 8-inch production capacity Since wafer input for these emerging applications is much more profitable than for DDI, foundries generally prioritize the allocation of their limited production capacity for the former instead of the latter The production capacity allocated to DDI is thus expected to become more and more compressed as a result Additionally, as 8-inch production capacities are unlikely to be increased in the future, their tight supply may become a long-term structural issue, further compressing the production capacity of DDI and putting pressure on IC prices to go into an uptrend In other words, the size of DDI clients’ wafer input orders and the relationship between foundries and DDI clients are both key factors determining whether DDI manufacturers can obtain a consistent supply of wafer capacity at their respective foundries
Likewise, the 80nm node capacities of 12-inch fabs are undergoing constant cutbacks as well Some foundries are demanding their TDDI clients to migrate their wafer input orders from the 80nm node to the 55nm node due to the latter’s superior profitability; TDDI manufacturers will thus be forced to contend with the corresponding adjustment of production capacities and seek out replacement solutions as a risk mitigation measure However, TrendForce expects the foundries’ 80nm capacities, which are less costly and more technologically mature than 55nm ones, to remain an increasingly sought-after node for TDDI manufacturers, since smartphone brands will in the short run focus on entry-level and mid-range models, which have higher potential for sell-through in the market
2020/05/07
According to the latest investigations by the WitsView research division of TrendForce, the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has diminished the global production of smartphones and also affected the market shares of different display panel technologies used in smartphones As smartphone brands are proactive in adopting AMOLED panels for their phones, the penetration rate of AMOLED phones in the overall smartphone market is still projected to increase from 310% in 2019 to 356% in 2020 On the other hand, the penetration rate of TFT-LCD phones (including those with LTPS or a-Si panels) is projected to undergo a yearly decrease
The growing influence of Chinese panel manufacturers will likely result in China occupying 35% of global AMOLED production capacity in 2020
TrendForce Research Director Boyce Fan indicates that most smartphone brands are implementing AMOLED panels for their flagship models in 2020 Case in point, all of Apple’s new phones to be released in 2H20 are expected to adopt AMOLED panels Therefore, although the current forecasted 356% penetration rate of AMOLED smartphones is lower than the pre-pandemic forecast of 377%, it still exceeds the 310% penetration rate seen in 2019 Furthermore, newly added production capacity of AMOLED panels is expected to continue increasing, in particular the production capacity of Chinese panel manufacturers, which are expected to account for 35% of global AMOLED panel capacity by area in 2020, a significant increase from 26% in 2019 Chinese panel manufacturers will likely look to increase their capacity utilization and yield rates in order to grow their influences and become part of major smartphone brands’ supply chains
For the past two years, the industry has seen a slowdown in the expansion of LTPS panel capacity, accompanied by a corresponding stabilization of panel supply Because of their hypercompetitive prices, narrow borders, and low power consumption, LTPS panels have gradually become the mainstream choice for smartphone displays, thus forcing a-Si panels into the entry-level market However, the surge of AMOLED panel supply is already starting to erode the shares of LTPS panels in the mid-range and high-end smartphone markets In addition, as the pandemic’s impact on the smartphone market is gradually manifesting, smartphone brands are leaning towards lengthening the shelf time of older models or even increasing the number of entry-level phones, in turn damaging the presence of LTPS phones in the mid-range segment The market share of LTPS phones is expected to fall from 402% in 2019 to 378% in 2020, but the magnitude of this decrease somewhat surpasses the expected drop for a-Si phones, which are projected to see a decrease in market share from 288% in 2019 to 266% in 2020
The presence of AMOLED phones in the smartphone market will continue to expand in the long run, with AMOLED phones eventually becoming the mainstream while crowding out the shares of TFT-LCD (including LTPS and a-Si) phones That means LTPS panel manufacturers, whose production capacity primarily focused on smartphones, must look to other revenue drivers, including notebook computer panels, tablet panels, or automotive display panels, to maintain their capacity utilization rates
