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keyword:Boyce Fan31 result(s)

Press Releases
Issues of Tight Supply of DDI to Persist in 2H20, Potentially Becoming Long-Term Concern, Says TrendForce


Semiconductors / Display

According to the latest investigations by the WitsView research division of TrendForce, foundries have maintained a high level of capacity utilization in 1H20 in spite of disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic In particular, the node capacities of mainstream process technologies used for DDI production are showing a tight supply situation that is unlikely to be alleviated even in 2H20 There is a high possibility for foundry capacities allocated for DDI production to be compressed by other applications in 2H20, in turn potentially resulting in a price hike for DDIs TrendForce indicates that demand from large-sized DDI wafer input has remained relative stable despite drastic changes in the demand for display panels since the onset of COVID-19 in early 2020 While most IC applications are produced at 8-inch fabs, specifically at their 01X µm process nodes, foundries have not expanded their 8-inch capacities by a significant amount As such, DDI manufacturers had to maintain their level of wafer input orders at foundries out of necessity, driven by the possibility that, once they reduced their levels of wafer input, they would be unable to subsequently recover their originally assigned production capacity at foundries after DDI demand ramps up later on Even so, IT panel demand underwent a sudden surge in 2Q20, and manufacturers could not supply enough DDI to meet the rising IT panel demand even though DDI manufacturers attempted to adjust their existing product mix given their assigned wafer capacities at foundries Therefore, the issue of tight supply yet remains an unresolved problem for large-sized DDI manufacturers The demand for smartphones has plummeted considerably owing to the pandemic’s impact, with certain smartphone brands reacting to this market slump in the short term by extending the lifecycle of older smartphone models or expanding the lineups of entry-level and mid-range models, in turn slowing down the pace of mainstream TDDI IC process technology’s transition from the 80nm node to the 55nm node for 12 inch wafers Case in point, most smartphone brands have decided to continue using TDDI ICs manufactured with 80nm process technology and slow down their plans of transitioning to 55nm TDDI ICs (such as high frame rate TDDI ICs) due to cost concerns and a slowdown in the mass production of new smartphone models With regards to new specifications of 55nm TDDI ICs, although R&D and mass production plans are still underway, they have now taken a more gradual pace TrendForce’s observations find that, as foundries continue to scale down their 6-inch wafer capacities, client demand has been increasingly focused on 8-inch production capacities In addition, the surging demand for emerging applications, including 5G applications, PMIC, fingerprint recognition, and CMOS sensors, has led to an increasingly tight supply situation for foundries’ 8-inch production capacity Since wafer input for these emerging applications is much more profitable than for DDI, foundries generally prioritize the allocation of their limited production capacity for the former instead of the latter The production capacity allocated to DDI is thus expected to become more and more compressed as a result Additionally, as 8-inch production capacities are unlikely to be increased in the future, their tight supply may become a long-term structural issue, further compressing the production capacity of DDI and putting pressure on IC prices to go into an uptrend In other words, the size of DDI clients’ wafer input orders and the relationship between foundries and DDI clients are both key factors determining whether DDI manufacturers can obtain a consistent supply of wafer capacity at their respective foundries Likewise, the 80nm node capacities of 12-inch fabs are undergoing constant cutbacks as well Some foundries are demanding their TDDI clients to migrate their wafer input orders from the 80nm node to the 55nm node due to the latter’s superior profitability; TDDI manufacturers will thus be forced to contend with the corresponding adjustment of production capacities and seek out replacement solutions as a risk mitigation measure However, TrendForce expects the foundries’ 80nm capacities, which are less costly and more technologically mature than 55nm ones, to remain an increasingly sought-after node for TDDI manufacturers, since smartphone brands will in the short run focus on entry-level and mid-range models, which have higher potential for sell-through in the market

Press Releases
Penetration Rate of AMOLED Smartphones Expected to Reach 35.6% in 2020 as Brands Increase Panel Adoption, Says TrendForce


Display / Consumer Electronics

According to the latest investigations by the WitsView research division of TrendForce, the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has diminished the global production of smartphones and also affected the market shares of different display panel technologies used in smartphones As smartphone brands are proactive in adopting AMOLED panels for their phones, the penetration rate of AMOLED phones in the overall smartphone market is still projected to increase from 310% in 2019 to 356% in 2020 On the other hand, the penetration rate of TFT-LCD phones (including those with LTPS or a-Si panels) is projected to undergo a yearly decrease The growing influence of Chinese panel manufacturers will likely result in China occupying 35% of global AMOLED production capacity in 2020 TrendForce Research Director Boyce Fan indicates that most smartphone brands are implementing AMOLED panels for their flagship models in 2020 Case in point, all of Apple’s new phones to be released in 2H20 are expected to adopt AMOLED panels Therefore, although the current forecasted 356% penetration rate of AMOLED smartphones is lower than the pre-pandemic forecast of 377%, it still exceeds the 310% penetration rate seen in 2019 Furthermore, newly added production capacity of AMOLED panels is expected to continue increasing, in particular the production capacity of Chinese panel manufacturers, which are expected to account for 35% of global AMOLED panel capacity by area in 2020, a significant increase from 26% in 2019 Chinese panel manufacturers will likely look to increase their capacity utilization and yield rates in order to grow their influences and become part of major smartphone brands’ supply chains For the past two years, the industry has seen a slowdown in the expansion of LTPS panel capacity, accompanied by a corresponding stabilization of panel supply Because of their hypercompetitive prices, narrow borders, and low power consumption, LTPS panels have gradually become the mainstream choice for smartphone displays, thus forcing a-Si panels into the entry-level market However, the surge of AMOLED panel supply is already starting to erode the shares of LTPS panels in the mid-range and high-end smartphone markets In addition, as the pandemic’s impact on the smartphone market is gradually manifesting, smartphone brands are leaning towards lengthening the shelf time of older models or even increasing the number of entry-level phones, in turn damaging the presence of LTPS phones in the mid-range segment The market share of LTPS phones is expected to fall from 402% in 2019 to 378% in 2020, but the magnitude of this decrease somewhat surpasses the expected drop for a-Si phones, which are projected to see a decrease in market share from 288% in 2019 to 266% in 2020 The presence of AMOLED phones in the smartphone market will continue to expand in the long run, with AMOLED phones eventually becoming the mainstream while crowding out the shares of TFT-LCD (including LTPS and a-Si) phones That means LTPS panel manufacturers, whose production capacity primarily focused on smartphones, must look to other revenue drivers, including notebook computer panels, tablet panels, or automotive display panels, to maintain their capacity utilization rates

Press Releases
As Tight Supply of DDI Becomes Imminent in 2020, TDDI Manufacturing Moves to More Advanced Process Technologies, Says TrendForce


Display / Semiconductors

According to the latest analysis from the WitsView research division of TrendForce, as electronic device manufacturers start to develop product strategies for the 2020 market driven by the commercialization of 5G technology, foundries are likewise raising their capacity utilization rates Specifically, 8-inch and 12-inch wafer fabs of large foundries are estimated to reach near-maximum production capacities in 4Q19, thus compressing the supply of large-sized DDI and small-sized TDDI TrendForce research director Boyce Fan indicates that while most large-sized DDIs were previously produced at several different process nodes (03-02µm, 01Xµm), following two to three years of production shift, they are now primarily produced at 01Xµm nodes in 8-inch fabs Foundries are starting to compress the initial supply of DDI, however, in favor of meeting the recent demand for more profitable products, such as fingerprint sensors, power management IC, and entry-level CMOS sensors The current market for large-sized panels faces the dual problem of both oversupply and weak demand in the off-season But these factors are expected to be counterbalanced as panel manufacturers adjust their production capacities, and TV panel ASP bottoms out TrendForce forecasts the possibility of tight supply in the 1H20 large-sized DDI market once client demand starts to skyrocket Because there were significant supply shortages of smartphone TDDI in 1H18, IC manufacturers began migrating their TDDI process nodes from 80nm nodes to 55nm nodes in an effort to mitigate supply risks However, most clients have been unwilling to adopt HD Dual Gate and FHD 6MUX TDDI, both produced at 55nm nodes in 2019, because the former suffered from product certification issues, while the latter yielded subpar product performance As a result, most cellphones still contain 80nm TDDI chips On the other hand, as China-based AMOLED panel manufacturers entered the mass production stage, the demand for OLED DDI began to soar IC manufacturers are expected to concentrate their production capacity on 40nm and 28nm processes in 2020 As some of the foundries increase the production of 40nm and 28nm process nodes, their production capacity at the 80nm node is likely to undergo a corresponding decline due to equipment constraints, in turn decreasing their TDDI production IC manufacturers are expected to begin producing TDDI at the 55nm nodes to compensate for the decline in TDDI production in 80nm nodes again Rising market penetration rate of high frame rate phones can help mitigate potential risks in TDDI supply Because high-bandwidth 5G services are starting to become more widespread, and the esports industry is undergoing significant growth, smartphone brands consider high frame rate display panels (90Hz+) to be the primary differentiator of smartphone specifications in 2020 As well, IC manufacturers are restarting the production of 90Hz/120Hz TDDI ICs at their 55nm process nodes in hopes of integrating these ICs in TFT-LCD-equipped phones In addition to TFT-LCD-equipped phones, 90Hz displays are also starting to become a major selling point in newer, AMOLED-equipped flagship models TrendForce projects that high frame rate phones are expected to exceed a 10% market penetration rate, with the possibility of becoming the industry standard in flagship phones As the market continues to rapidly mature, high frame rate phones can help mitigate the potential risks involved in TDDI supply for IC manufacturers in 2020

Press Releases
Demand for AMOLED-Equipped Cellphones to Continue Rising in 2020, LTPS to Remain Mid-Range Favorites, Says TrendForce


Display / Consumer Electronics

According to the latest analysis from the WitsView research division of TrendForce, the share of devices featuring AMOLED panels is expected to grow from 328% in 2019 to 380% in 2020 in the global smartphone marketplace, in response to an ever-increasing production capacity and smartphone makers' willingness to adopt the technology In contrast, the market share of LTPS-equipped devices is expected to drop from 413% down to 386% The market shares for AMOLED- and LTPS-equipped devices are roughly even, with the former possibly taking the lead in the future Boyce Fan, research director at TrendForce, argues that AMOLED panels are able to establish dominance in the high-end smartphone market because of increased adoption by smartphone makers, owing to Samsung Display's successful pricing strategies; furthermore, AMOLED is the only panel technology that enables integration of under-display fingerprint sensors Aside from Samsung and Apple, the largest smartphone makers in China are aggressively incorporating AMOLED panels into their product lines, in turn accelerating the expansion of Chinese panel manufacturers' AMOLED production capabilities Most of China's growing AMOLED production capacity is dedicated to flexible AMOLED panels As a result, Samsung Display controls the vast majority of global rigid AMOLED production The maturity of rigid AMOLED technology, combined with its superior cost and yield, makes it Samsung's weapon of choice in the fight for market shares, with the implication of reduced mid-range and high-end smartphone LTPS panel shares TrendForce holds the opinion that, given the constant production capacity of rigid AMOLED panels, should demand increase in 2020, the supply and demand of rigid AMOLED panels will present a balanced or slightly tight market, since Chinese flexible AMOLED production is as of yet uncompetitive On the other hand, LTPS panels, which once occupied the mid-range and high-end smartphone segments, are now facing an adverse market economy stemming from hypercompetitive prices As such, profit margins are significantly reduced for panel manufacturers However, with bezel-less phones becoming the norm in 2019, production speed for Dual Gate TDDI-equipped a-Si HD In-Cell panels is failing to match projected figures This creates a point of market entry for LTPS panels and an incentive to transform production capacity towards the development of LTPS HD devices, in turn making up for lost high-end market shares in the low-end and mid-range markets As well, LTPS manufacturers without a reliable customer base are starting to adapt by closing down non-essential production lines and moving towards non-smartphone applications of LTPS panels to alleviate pressure from reduced LTPS demand caused by competition from AMOLED makers  TrendForce projects a growth in the demand for flexible AMOLED panels, which will effect a further increase in the global market shares of AMOLED-equipped smartphones In contrast, rigid AMOLED panels have limited growth potential due to supply limitations It remains to be seen whether LTPS panels can fill the gap left by unfulfilled demand for rigid AMOLED panels, and whether this allows LTPS supply and demand to reach a healthy equilibrium

Press Releases
Breakthrough in Foldable Phone Penetration Rate Begins in 2021; Flexible AMOLED Panels are Key, Says TrendForce


Display / Consumer Electronics

As smartphone markets become saturated, suppliers look to foldable phones as a potential demand-stimulating design Samsung and Huawei etc have put several concept phones on display in MWC 2019  WitsView, a division of  TrendForce, holds that foldable phones are still in the stages of market-response observation and product-design adjustment, and predicts for them a meager smartphone market penetration rate of 01% in 2019 Foldable phones penetration rates will have to wait until more panel providers join the game and panel costs see significant improvements for a chance to rise above 1% in 2021, and accelerate past 34% in 2022 WitsView's Research Director, Boyce Fan, points out that the most significant design difference between Samsung and Huawei lies in the inward/outward folding choice Samsung adopted a dual-screen design with an outer screen and an inward-folding screen; Huawei on the other hand adopted a single, outward-folding screen design Overall, the inward/outward designs each have their own advantages, but they are still far from ideal WitsView considers the outward-folding design as more intuitive, since it reduces the need for an additional screen, yet retains interchangeability between both phone and tablet modes The main problem with outward-folding phones lie with the plastic base material currently used for its protective cover, which raises concerns over durability and scratch-resistances This may also be why Samsung chose an inward design over an outer one Inward designs, however , are far more demanding technologically due to the small bending radius at the folding point; much effort must be made when adjusting processes and selecting materials Samsung has filed a considerable number of patents on this area, which goes to show that Samsung possesses a certain degree of technological superiority in inward designs On the other hand, it remains for time to tell whether protective covers will embrace ultra-thin glass materials once more Apart from the developments in material specifications, it is also worth observing in smartphone markets whether consumers, who have gotten used to the feel and look of glass protective covers, are willing to accept phones covered in plastic China's Flexible AMOLED Production Capacity to Catch Up with Korean Suppliers After 2020 Looking at the supply side, there aren't that many suppliers able to provide a steady flow of foldable panels Samsung relies on its own panels and isn't worried about supply shortage; Huawei on the other hand is dependent on China's panel manufacturers, but the scale may still be limited by current technology and yield rate Other smartphone brands suffer from a lack of stable panel supply, which may prove to be the bigger bottleneck in the early stages of foldable-phone developments WitsView observes that China's panel manufacturers are still only in the initial stages of flexible AMOLED panel development and possess limited actual supply potential—their current production capacity only make up about 27% worldwide, with Korean manufacturers gaining the absolute upper hand short-term China's panel manufacturers will, however, allow its newfound flexible AMOLED production capacity to contribute to production in the coming 2~3 years; they will catch up with Korean panel manufacturers in flexible AMOLED production capacity after 2020 After supply rises and competition increases, panel prices may finally have a chance to drop Moreover, China's smartphone brands reach a wide audience in the global market,and have a great potential need for AMOLED panels and foldable phones—both factors will prove somewhat beneficial in digesting the production capacity of China's panel manufacturers in the future WitsView points out that in these current early stages of foldable phone development, penetration rate growth will not only be directly affected by high prices, but also be limited in large part due to uncertainty of the added value foldable phones may provide consumers with Thus it remains to be seen how suppliers will convince consumers and stimulate sales by software and UI optimization and integrating the unique nature of foldable phones The high transmission speeds and low latency that 5G boasts and the size-adjustability of foldable phones may furthermore boost user experience with these devices It is predicted that as 5G gradually finds widespread use starting from 2021, foldable phones will fall into place production capacity- and technology-wise to ride the revolutionary wave and begin their ascent in market penetration rates

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