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keyword:Avril Wu114 result(s)

Press Releases
Overall Memory ASP Projected to Decline by Nearly 10% Given Persistent Oversupply in 4Q20, Says TrendForce

2020/10/07

Semiconductors

The memory market (including DRAM and NAND Flash) is still in a state of oversupply in 4Q20, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations In light of recent US sanctions against Huawei, other smartphone brands have been actively stocking up on memory products in an effort to capture Huawei’s lost market shares, but this procurement momentum is insufficient to improve the lethargic state of the memory market In addition, as memory demand from the server industry has yet to make a noticeable recovery, overall memory ASP is expected to remain weak in 4Q20 and decrease by about 10% QoQ With regards to DRAM, the market is primarily concerned with the mobile DRAM and server DRAM categories, which account for the majority of DRAM bit consumption In terms of mobile DRAM, the preemptive inventory pull by Huawei has quickly alleviated the three major DRAM suppliers’ pressure to destock their inventories As well, Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo are all urgently stocking up on key components, in turn providing some support for mobile DRAM ASP, which is expected to undergo a 0-5% QoQ decline in 4Q20 On the other hand, since most CSPs and enterprise server clients are currently maintaining a relatively high inventory level of server DRAM, server DRAM ASP may potentially drop even further, with a forecasted QoQ decline of about 15% in 4Q20 By the end of this year, prices for mainstream 32GB modules are also projected to reach about US$100-110, which is close to the previous cyclical downswing’s lowest point All in all, overall DRAM ASP is projected to decline by about 10% in 4Q20 With regards to NAND Flash, although preemptive stock-up demand from branded clients similarly provided some support for NAND Flash ASP, the high level of supply bits and high customer inventory levels at the moment have led to an oversupply situation that is more evident than in the DRAM market Owing to aggressive NAND Flash demand from Chinese smartphone brands, the decline in eMMC and UFS ASP is expected to narrow to a 3-7% QoQ drop in 4Q20 Likewise, the continually rising supply of NAND Flash wafers will likely result in a nearly 20% QoQ decline in wafer ASP As for SSD, owing to weakening demand from server manufacturers, enterprise SSD ASP is expected to drop by 10-15% QoQ Overall NAND Flash ASP is projected to drop by about 10% in 4Q20 Furthermore, the spot market, which is indicative of the overall memory market’s movement as a whole, once again turned sluggish after mid-September Although low priced products comprise a relatively low share of DRAM and NAND Flash spot transactions, transactions for mid-range and high-end memory products have not risen by a noticeable amount, thereby constraining the momentum of the overall memory market Looking ahead to 1Q21, the decline in DRAM ASP is expected to significantly narrow, thanks to increased stock-up demand from purchasers Conversely, the abundance of NAND Flash suppliers and persistently high level of supply bits will likely widen the decline in NAND Flash ASP, resulting in a 15% QoQ decrease in 1Q21

Press Releases
As DRAM Market Enters Period of Price Hikes, Revenue Drops by 4.6% QoQ in 1Q20 Due to COVID-19’s Impact on Shipment, Says TrendForce

2020/05/13

Semiconductors

The DRAM market has changed from falling prices and rising shipment to rising prices and falling shipment According to the latest investigations by the DRAMeXchange research division of TrendForce, DRAM suppliers were able to successfully reduce their inventories in 1Q20, with significantly lower inventory levels at the end of 1Q20 compared to the beginning of the year Hence, suppliers are no longer under imminent pressure to slash prices, and overall DRAM ASP rose by about 0-5% QoQ However, while governments responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by implementing citywide and nationwide lockdown policies, the resultant logistic disruptions in turn affected DRAM bit shipment as well Therefore, in spite of the minor rise in ASP, global DRAM revenue decreased by 46% QoQ, reaching US$148 billion TrendForce indicates that the backlog of orders in 1Q20 will be deferred to 2Q20 In 2Q20, as the magnitude of QoQ increase in DRAM ASP expands, and bit shipment rebounds, TrendForce forecasts a QoQ increase of more than 20% in overall DRAM revenue DRAM suppliers are projected to continue improving their revenue and profitability The slight increase of DRAM ASP helped strengthen suppliers’ profitability in 1Q20 As the pandemic-related disruptions in the supply chain caused delays in bit shipment, and the market situation changed to a state of rising prices and declining shipments, the three dominant DRAM suppliers all experienced revenue contractions in 1Q20 of 3%, 4%, and about 11%, for Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, respectively (Micron’s 11% contraction refers to its fiscal 2Q20 revenue performance, from December 2019 to February 2020) In terms of market shares, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron occupied 441%, 293%, and 208% of the market, respectively Since suppliers have not made any major changes to their capacity plans for this year, TrendForce projects their market shares to remain mostly unchanged in 2Q20 The QoQ rise in overall DRAM ASP made a positive contribution to suppliers’ profitability in 1Q20 Samsung had a relatively strong base period in 4Q19 compared to 1Q20 because it was able to recover some of the write-offs related the quality issue of its 1X-nm process and produce a dramatic one-time gain during the period As such, although the company posted a drop in its 1Q20 operating margin to 32%, its actual profitability has been steadily improving SK Hynix’s operating margin rose considerably to 26% from 19% in the previous quarter The increase in Micron’s ASP for its fiscal 2Q20 has been smaller compared with the increases in the two Korean suppliers’ ASPs Micron has also experienced a jump in its operating costs resulting from its 1Z-nm migration Consequently, Micron’s operating margin fell slightly, but the US-based supplier is expected to make a decent recovery in its fiscal 3Q20 (from March to May) The three dominant suppliers are cautious about capacity planning and are further scaling back their CAPEX On the matters of technology and production, Samsung continues to shift the wafer processing capacity at its Line 13 from DRAM production to CMOS image sensor production, but it intends to commence DRAM production at P2L in 2H20 to compensate for the shortfall of wafer input at Line 13 while expanding the share of the 1Z-nm production in its output Samsung remains conservative in its planning as the pandemic has severely weakened the overall demand; the amount of production capacity that it plans to add this year is thus quite limited SK Hynix is gradually shifting the wafer processing capacity of its fab M10 to CMOS image sensors, while DRAM production is being raised at its main memory plant M14 SK Hynix has also decided to slightly increase wafer starts at its Wuxi base in 2H20 Nevertheless, SK Hynix this year will be expanding its output primarily through its transition to the 1Y-nm production, without significantly increasing its overall production capacity Micron’s total DRAM production capacity will stay relatively constant from last year, since much of its CAPEX in 2020 is budgeted for moving its 1Z-nm process into the mass production phase and raising output Mass production for Micron’s 1Z-nm products is expected to be realized soon, as OEMs are keen on testing the samples sent by Micron On the whole, the top three suppliers are making good progress in their technology migrations despite some delays in process development and deployment None of them have encountered a serious quality issue that could set back the schedule Total DRAM production capacity is not expected to show noticeable growth this year, and dominant DRAM suppliers are continuing to dial back their CAPEX Hence, the growth of the DRAM industry’s bit output in 2020 will be mainly driven by suppliers’ 1Y-nm and 1Z-nm migrations instead of a rise in wafer starts Taiwanese suppliers will focus on the development and deployment of advanced processes Nanya posted a QoQ increase of nearly 10% in its revenue for 1Q20 as it was able to raise its bit shipments by a double-digit percentage Nanya’s operating margin also rebounded to 127% in 1Q20 from 11% in 4Q19, owing to the effective control of the R&D cost In addition, Nanya is expected to see a further increase in its profitability in 2Q20 because its ASP will follow the general market trend and keep climbing Winbond’s quarterly DRAM revenue for 1Q20 was similar to the figure for the previous quarter as there were no major QoQ changes in the ASP and bit shipments However, Winbond recorded a noticeable gain in its NAND Flash revenue for the same period Powerchip maintained the same product mix strategy that favors CMOS image sensors over DRAM because demand stayed high for the former during 1Q20 As a result, Powerchip’s DRAM revenue for the quarter slid by 3% (the calculation of Powerchip’s revenue covers the sales of the company’s own branded, in-house manufactured PC DRAM products and excludes foundry DRAM orders) Although the three Taiwanese suppliers varied in their revenue performances, all of them will be concentrating on developing their most advanced processes during 2020 Nanya, for example, is focusing on the deployment of its in-house 1A-nm and 1B-nm processes after announcing that it will no longer use technologies licensed from Micron Meanwhile, Winbond is working on raising the yield rate of its new 25nm process and diversifying its memory offerings As for Powerchip, it is improving its 25nm DDR4 memory products with respect to stability and compatibility

Press Releases
DRAM Contract Prices to Rise in 1Q20 as Power Outage at Samsung Fab Spurs Demand, Says TrendForce

2020/01/08

Semiconductors

1Q20 contract price forecast for PC DRAM, mobile DRAM, and specialty DRAM has been revised from “slightly downward” to “mostly holding steady or slightly upward” Because of limited growth in DRAM supply, buyers are proactively increasing orders to raise their inventory According to the latest analysis from the DRAMeXchange research division of TrendForce, the consistent increase in DRAM spot prices since December and the power outage at Samsung’s Hwaseong fab on December 31, 2019 have not seriously impacted the supply side of the DRAM market But on the demand side, memory buyers have furthered their willingness to build up inventories Thus, TrendForce is again adjusting the 1Q20 DRAM contract price forecast from “mostly holding steady”, as previously reported, to “slightly trending upward”, indicating an earlier-than-anticipated kickoff of the cyclical upturn In the PC DRAM segment, although negotiations over 1Q20 contract prices are currently underway, TrendForce predicts a high probability that prices of memory products shipped to PC OEMs will trend either flat or slightly upward To avoid the potential increase of the US tariffs on Chinese imports, PC OEMs rushed the shipments of notebook PCs to the US market in 4Q19 Subsequently, notebook PC shipments during 1Q20 will be weaker compared to traditional seasonality On the other hand, PC OEMs are under pressure to raise their memory inventories because DRAM suppliers are curbing their bit output The YoY growth of the total DRAM bit output in 2020 is still projected to be less than 13% Hence, PC OEMs are actively preparing for a supply-driven price hike in the near future The power outage at Samsung’s Hwaseong base has only dialed up the sense of urgency With the aim of building up a safety stock of DRAM modules in mind, PC OEMs in 1Q20 seem to be willing to accept prices that are the same level or marginally higher compared with the previous quarter They may concede on price if DRAM suppliers are cooperative in raising product quantity In the mobile DRAM segment, although consumer interest in 5G smartphones is growing in 1Q20, the supply of 5G chipsets is still quite limited Also, smartphone makers usually dial back their demand for key components during the traditional off season Hence, any 5G-related memory demand is not expected to be significant in the beginning of 2020 TrendForce previously forecasted a 0-5% decrease QoQ in contract prices of mobile discrete products and eMCP products for 1Q20 However, server DRAM and Graphics DRAM products are now expected to lead the general price rally, as their demand has been warming up since mid-December As well, the recent tightening of supply in the NAND Flash market is helping to prop up prices of eMCP products The positive sentiment in these two segments has spilled over into the mobile DRAM market The latest forecast has therefore corrected mobile DRAM price trends from “slightly downward” to “mostly holding steady” for the period Samsung produces most of its specialty DRAM chips on the 20/25nm processes at its Hwaseong-based fab Line 13, which was affected by the power outage Moreover, contracts prices of specialty DRAM chips have been the first to feel the effects of the nearly month-long price upswing in the spot market As a result, contract prices of specialty DRAM chips could rebound sooner than initially anticipated For this first quarter, major customers (or tier-1 clients) that procure specialty DRAM chips through quarterly lock-in deals could see prices staying on the same level as in 4Q19 However, the average supply fulfillment rate of DRAM suppliers for quarterly deals related to specialty memory products is estimated to be under 60% for 1Q20 Most customers in the specialty DRAM segment had not proactively stocked up at the end of last year, so they entered 2020 with rather low inventories Therefore, contract prices of most specialty DRAM chips will probably begin to register monthly rises starting from the first quarter Moreover, double-booking from buyers could cause a further drop in the supply fulfillment rate In light of these factors, contract prices for DDR3 and DDR4 memory products are projected to register a 0-5% QoQ increase in 1Q20

Press Releases
As Supply Adjustments Struggle to Keep Up with Demand Growth, 1Q20 Graphics DRAM Price Sees Sharp Upturn, Says TrendForce

2019/12/26

Semiconductors

According to the newest analysis from the DRAMeXchange research division of TrendForce, server DRAM prices are expected to lead the uptrend in 1Q20 DRAM prices because the supply has been constrained by unstable yield rates of 1Xnm processes Also, Graphics DRAM prices will see a corresponding sharp rebound Graphics DRAM is more sensitive to demand change than other types of memory products, so its price fluctuations can be dramatic as well With OEM clients raising their stock-up demand, Graphics DRAM contract prices are projected to increase by over 5% QoQ, the highest among all memory products As GPU and game consoles become higher-spec, demand for high-capacity GDDR6 rises Regarding the overall market demand in 2020, the migration from GDDR5 to GDDR6 is underway at a rapid pace In the graphics card market, the majority of NVIDIA’s shipments of graphics cards are based on the RTX platform, and most of these RTX cards use GDDR6 memory AMD is also proactively destocking its older graphics cards with GDDR5 memory; the company has completely switched to GDDR6 for its latest NAVI series of GPUs In the game console market, Sony and Microsoft are still relying on GDDR5 for PS4 and Xbox One, respectively However, their next-generation consoles to be released in 2H20 (ie, Sony’s PS5 and Microsoft’s Xbox Series X) will be equipped with GDDR6 memory The memory capacity of these upcoming consoles could be raised up to 16GB, which is twice that of current mainstream graphics cards Given these developments, demand is expected to exceed supply for graphics DRAM in 2020 On the supply front, compared with other types of memory, Graphics DRAM has the highest production cost per chip Hence, Graphics DRAM products were the first group of memory products to incur an operating loss for suppliers during the past few quarters when DRAM prices as a whole went on a steep dive Therefore, the three dominant suppliers adjusted their product mixes and transferred some of their wafer capacity that was originally for Graphics DRAM to products with higher margins to maintain profitability Currently, Graphics DRAM accounts for less than 6% of the industry’s overall output Owing to a constrained supply and the abovementioned demand drivers, quotes are starting to stabilize Because suppliers will not be able to make quick enough adjustments in their product mixes to immediately meet the rising demand, TrendForce forecasts a sharp rebound in the contract prices of Graphics DRAM in 2020, which will register perhaps the largest increase among products for different memory applications Supply of Graphics DRAM to grow by 15% in 2020 Regarding the competition among the three dominant suppliers in the Graphics DRAM market, Samsung is currently the clear leader, as it has the largest market share in production terms and is significantly ahead with respect to progress made in the design and client testing of GDDR6 products SK Hynix and Micron, which trail behind Samsung, are neck and neck in the competition with similar market shares However, Micron is faster than SK Hynix in the race to develop GDDR6 products and will soon reach the volume production stage for these next-generation chips Therefore, Micron should become more competitive next year and widen its distance from SK Hynix in 2020 TrendForce expects that the price for Graphics DRAM will rebound in the near future, as major game console makers adopt GDDR6 and increase memory capacity for their new products slated for 2H20 On account of these factors, the three dominant suppliers are likely going to gradually shift some of their wafer capacity back to Graphics DRAM Hence, TrendForce believes there is a possibility that the YoY growth of the industry’s bit output for Graphics DRAM in 2020 will exceed 15% Also, the projected bit growth for Graphics DRAM may be the second highest among different memory applications, only coming under the bit growth for server DRAM

Press Releases
As Spot Prices See Sharp Upturn, 1Q20 DRAM Contract Prices Stop Falling, Says TrendForce

2019/12/16

Semiconductors

According to the latest analysis of TrendForce’s DRAMeXchange research division, DRAM spot prices have begun to rebound, in turn improving the overall DRAM market sentiment, and memory component buyers in the contract market will be induced to raise their inventories as well Contract prices are expected to rally as early as 1Q20 TrendForce indicates that there has been an influx of downgraded 1Xnm chips in the spot market at rock-bottom prices due to product returns Although downgraded chips are currently still being returned, memory module makers and channel brokers have become more willing to raise their inventories With the stockpile of downgraded 1Xnm chips being quickly digested, spot prices have also started rising In terms of the overall supply and demand situation, the 4Q19 DRAM market is still slightly skewed toward oversupply despite five quarters of inventory adjustment Furthermore, although the overall 1Q20 DRAM demand will be stronger than usual despite seasonality, the reversal of oversupply will occur no earlier than in mid-2020 However, DRAM price upturns historically tend to precede reversals in supply/demand dynamics; as a result, TrendForce previously stated that DRAM ASP could start to rally by the beginning of 2Q20 However, the sharp hike in spot quotes this week has altered the outlook for next year due to its potential to galvanize demand and affect contract negotiations The effect of this development will be especially felt in the server DRAM segment because issues with the 1Xnm production across the DRAM industry have had a disruptive effect on the supply of memory products as a whole TrendForce’s latest updates to its 1Q20 price forecast are as follows: contract prices of PC DRAM, specialty DRAM, and mobile DRAM products will experience minor QoQ drops, while contract prices of server DRAM products will register a QoQ increase With the anticipated cyclical upturn in prices first occurring in the server DRAM segment, the overall DRAM ASP may also hold steady at about the same level as in 4Q19 Price hikes of server and Graphics DRAM lead the way for cyclical upturn in 2020 DRAM prices TrendForce’s observation of the DRAM market finds an increase in quantities of server DRAM traded and an easing of the price decline These trends indicate that server OEMs are becoming more proactive in building up their DRAM inventories Looking ahead to 1Q20, because of existing instabilities in the supply of products built on 1Xnm processes, as well as fairly robust short-term demands, server DRAM ASP is expected to rally, with a 5% increase QoQ Besides the latest revision to the price forecast of server DRAM, TrendForce has also corrected upward the price forecast of Graphics DRAM The inventory level of GDDR5 products on the supply side has come down to a relatively low level after a period of adjustments Furthermore, GPU makers are shifting their demand to next-generation GDDR6 products With the demand side anticipating rising quotes in the future, contract prices of Graphics DRAM products are projected to post a minor QoQ increase

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