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Press Releases
TrendForce’s Mobile PC Shipment Forecast for 2016 Shows Glimmer of Hope for Notebooks but Continuing Decline for Tablets


Consumer Electronics

Annual shipments of notebooks are expected to decline significantly this year despite vendors’ best efforts during the year’s second half This dismal result is attributed to the impact of weak shipments in the year’s first half and challenges in inventory reduction According to global market research firm TrendForce, total notebook shipments for 2015 will reach around 1644 million units, down 64% year on year “This year has been an extraordinary tough for the notebook market,” said TrendForce notebook analyst Anita Wang “However shipments will recover in 2016, when more branded vendors will be entering the market, including Xiaomi and Huawei Consumers have delayed buying notebooks due to the free upgrade of Windows 10 this year, but this slump in purchases will dissipate by next year; and new products released by new market entrants will spur the market We estimate that total notebook shipments for 2016 will increase a little by 1% year on year to 165 million units” Demand for tablets, on the other hand, has become soft as these devices are still mainly limited to Internet browsing and entertainment in terms of functionality With no novel features that can pique consumers’ interests, small tablets are increasingly being replaced by smartphones, which continue to grow in size Hence, TrendForce has lowered its tablet shipment forecast for 2015 to 1634 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 149%  Tablet shipments will remain weak next year as large smartphones continue to affect tablet sales “Business products such as Apple’s iPad Pro have high unit prices, so they will not be able to offset the decline in small tablet shipments even if they do become a market success,” Wang noted “Our estimation indicates that a total of 1534 million tablets will be shipped in 2016, down 61% year on year” The following is a summary of major trends that will be unfolding in the mobile PC (tablet and notebook) market next year: Feeling pressure from large smartphones, tablet vendors will offer larger products to compete with notebooks In the mobile PC market, the presence of large smartphones (5 inches and above in sizes) has grown considerably this year and eroded tablet sales In particular, the share of 7-inch models in the global tablet market has contracted from 57% in 2014 to the estimated 50% this year With large smartphones moving into their territory, tablet vendors in response have rolled out products of even larger sizes with the intention of expanding into the notebook market TrendForce projects that tablets sized 10 inches and above will account for almost 30% of the global tablet market in 2016, a significant increase from the estimated 18% of this year Major tablet vendors that have released large tablets include Apple with its 129-inch iPad Pro, Samsung with its 184-inch Galaxy View and Microsoft with its 123-inch Surface Pro 4 In addition to having a larger display, iPad Pro and Surface Pro 4 also come with a detachable keyboard and a stylus as accessories “The latest tablets from Microsoft and Apple clearly compete against notebooks, but they are limited to the business/professional market segment,” said Wang “It will be difficult for large tablets to replace notebooks in the short term because the former are priced too high, whereas low-priced notebooks are plentiful” More notebooks will adopt FHD resolution technology and narrow bezel design will drive sales By display resolution specs, HD (1366x768 pixels) notebook models account for over 80% of the global notebook market this year By contrast, FHD (1920x1080 pixels) and above models represent only 18~19% Prices of notebook panels have steadily declined this year In particular, prices of mainstream HD notebook panels (sized 14 and 156 inches) have dropped almost to their cash costs Consequently, panel suppliers now rely on FHD products to maintain their profits in this market TrendForce forecasts that the share of FHD and above models in the global notebook market is expected to grow to 25~28% next year In addition to the resolution upgrade, notebook vendors will also make the bezel surrounding the display narrower as a way to raise the average sales prices of their products A prominent example is Dell XPS 13, which was released earlier this year The dimensions of this notebook’s exterior casing are previously for a model with 116-inch display However, Dell’s narrow bezel design manages to squeeze a 133-inch display into the casing Notebooks with larger screens but are still easy to carry are expected to be a driving factor in future notebook sales

Press Releases
TrendForce Says Sales of Microsoft and Amazon Tablets to Surge Against Market Headwinds in Q4


Consumer Electronics

Growth in the tablet market slowed down in the third quarter due to market saturation Global market research firm TrendForce’s latest tablet shipment report reveals shipments worldwide during this period totaled 393 million units, up slightly by 68% from the previous quarter Vendors will be relying on new products or promotion deals to drive shipments in the final quarter, which is likely to account for much of the sales this year Fourth-quarter shipment growth is thus expected to reach 25% over the prior quarter Furthermore, TrendForce estimates the total shipments for 2015 to be around 1634 million units, down 149% compared with the result of 2014 Within this year’s annual shipments, 1158 million units will come from branded vendors, representing a 198% decline from a year ago Shipments of white-box tablets conversely are projected to grow 02% year on year and account for 476 million units of the annual shipments Amazon to make a strong finish for the year with a new Fire tablet; Microsoft to maintain the momentum of the 2-in-1 market TrendForce notebook analyst Anita Wang said Amazon will see a dramatic increase in its tablet shipments towards the end of the year The vendor posted poor quarterly results during the first three quarters, with its third-quarter shipments in particular suffering a 25% drop However, the new 7-inch Fire tablet that was released at the end of October has been shaking up the market with its very low price of US$4999 and the “buy five and the sixth free” deal TrendForce projects that over 3 million this new tablet will be shipped this year, and the vendor’s fourth-quarter shipments is set to grow eight to nine times compared with the third quarter TrendForce has also adjusted Amazon’s annual shipments for this year to 48 million units, up 25% from the prior year In addition to the success of economical tablets, the 2-in-1 form factor has also gotten a big sales boost owing to Microsoft, which saw its third-quarter tablet shipments grew against the market headwinds by 134% over the previous quarter Consumers have been especially attracted to Microsoft’s affordable entry-level tablets Shipments of Surface 3, for example, soared past that of Surface Pro 3 in the third quarter and currently comprises over 60% of the vendor’s total shipments for this year The brisk sales of Surface 3, along with the new 123-inch Surface Pro 4 that is set to launch in the middle of November, will help increase Microsoft tablet shipments by about 20% in the fourth quarter TrendForce estimates that Microsoft will ship around 38 million tablets, representing a massive annual growth of 44% Shipments of iPads to expand significantly in the fourth quarter, while large tablets will not turn Samsung’s shipments around Apple’s iPad shipments for third quarter were 99 million units, down 96% from the second quarter and down 198% year on year The new products that were released in September – iPad mini 4 and the larger iPad Pro – will start driving Apple’s tablet sales in the final quarter Compared with the slow third quarter, the fourth quarter will have take-off shipment growth that is estimated to exceed 30% However, iPad Pro is presently in short supply because the vendor has encountered problems that prevented smooth deliveries of the device Therefore, the projected iPad Pro shipments in the fourth quarter will be less than 2 million units Apple has also been unable to prevent large-size iPhones from cannibalizing iPad sales since the launch of iPhone 6 series While shipments of iPad mini will peak this fourth quarter, the overall result for this product will be a year-on-year decline TrendForce has lowered iPad shipments for 2015 to 465 million units, which is a 27% drop from a year ago Samsung’s third-quarter shipments totaled just 76 million units, down 4% from the prior quarter The quarterly shipment decline of tablets sized 97 inches and above was the main reason for the lackluster result Conversely, shipments of tablets sized 84 inches and below were relatively stable during the same period In the fourth quarter, Samsung will not only depend on its 97-inch products to drive shipments but will also be launching an 184-inch model known as Galaxy View The vendor expects that this giant tablet, which is dedicated to home entertainment, will be able to differentiate itself from the competing products and add a new market segment Still, the launch shipments of Galaxy View are projected at less than 100,000 units, which will not contribute much to Samsung’s annual shipments Set against the previous year, the vendor’s tablet shipments for 2015 are projected to fall by as much as 20% to 328 million units Lenovo’s third-quarter shipments totaled around 234 million, up 5 % from the previous quarter Lenovo is facing stiff competition in China, which is its main tablet market White-box vendors especially have been able eat into Lenovo’s sales there by undercutting prices TrendForce has also marked down Lenovo’s annual shipments to 93 million units, amounting to a 129% decline compared with 2014 In the third quarter, ASUS launched a new entrant in the ZenPad series that has high cost-performance ratio and features a tablet cover with a built-in battery pack The success of the latest ZenPad helped lift the vendor’s third-quarter tablet shipments by 29% compared with the previous quarter Based on TrendForce’s analysis, ASUS will ship 56 million tablets in 2015, though this figure also translates to an annual decline

Press Releases
Strong Demand Revives Notebook Shipments in Third Quarter with Growth Hitting 11.1%, TrendForce Reports


Consumer Electronics

After experiencing shipment slump in the first half of 2015, branded notebook vendors aim to finish the year off with a strong recovery by making a comeback with an all-out effort to expand their shipments Notebook demand remained strong in the US and started to pick up in China The stabilization of currency exchange rates has also resulted a gradual turnaround in the European notebook market According to analysis by the global research firm TrendForce, global notebook shipments grew above expectations by 111% quarterly to 4317 million units in the third quarter However, this figure also represented a 57% year-on-year drop Anita Wang, TrendForce notebook analyst, said that notebook brands will continue to expand their shipments in the fourth quarter Besides introducing new models carrying Windows 10, vendors will also lower their prices to generate sales This is done by further cutting the costs of an entire notebook set Wang expects that the total shipments in the fourth quarter may reach around the same level as those in the third quarter Vendors and retailers will therefore have to dispose much of their inventories during this final quarter, or else accumulated inventories will drag notebook shipments in the first quarter of 2016 American brands and Lenovo see strong shipment growth; Apple achieves stellar results with the new MacBook HP retained its first-place title in the third quarter shipment ranking with a quarterly growth of 104% The increase was due to operational efficiency caused by the restructuring process that split HP into two companies in the third quarter Therefore, shipments of various products have been impressive; and the notebook shipments beat expectations owing to strong demand in the US and the upturn in the European market Lenovo’s shipments recovered in the third quarter as the vendor got rid of excess inventories and benefited from seasonal demand The vendor maintained its No 2 position in the ranking with a quarterly growth of 111% Dell’s shipments benefited from the surging consumer demand in China and North America, with the latter regional market also seeing a rise in demand for commercial notebooks These market forces lifted Dell’s third-quarter shipments by 183%, placing the vendor securely at No 3 Apple saw high shipment growth for MacBooks in the third quarter due to strong demand from North America, which is the vendor’s main market The new 12-inch MacBook Air that was launched in the second quarter was well received by consumers and also added a new market segment for this product line Furthermore, there was a surge in shipments of updated MacBook models in the third quarter These factors resulted in a huge quarterly rise of 198% in the overall shipments during this period The third quarter was the peak shipment period for Acer notebooks as the Taiwanese vendor stepped up its efforts In addition to the positive North American and European markets, Acer’s latest Aspire One Cloudbook also generated a lot of interests from consumers because of its pricing With a shipment growth of 138%, Acer surpassed ASUS to become the No 5 in the third-quarter ranking By contrast, ASUS has used the same period to lower its inventory level and adjust its product mixes instead of trying increase notebook shipments, which suffered a 153% decline from the second quarter Wang pointed out that ASUS will return its focus on expanding shipments in the fourth quarter after it has rectify its strategy Moreover, the vendor will see a sharp and huge shipment growth of 25~30% despite the seasonal headwinds at the end of the year

Press Releases
TrendForce Reports Shipments of Large-Size Monitors Expands This Year Due to Rising Demand



Demand has shifted towards products with larger sizes in this year’s LCD monitor market, according to the latest report by WitsView, a division of TrendForce The share of models sized 23 inches and above in the global monitor shipments has increased to upwards of 40% this quarter The 27-inch and larger segment in particular has seen the largest increase in its share of the total shipments A year ago, this segment accounted for just 68% of the annual shipments worldwide This year, however, rising demand from Internet cafés in China is supporting the large-size market Moreover, shipments of large-size niche products such as curved-screen monitors have picked up Consequently, the share of the 27-inch and larger segment in the total monitor shipments increased to 95% by the end of this second quarter and is projected to surpass 10% in this third quarter “Within the 27-inch and greater segment, the growth of the 32-inch products continues to accelerate mainly because of the demand from the Chinese Internet cafés,” said Anita Wang, research manager at WitsView “The display panel industry are adding new capacities, leading to an abundant supply of inexpensive panels TV panels of 32 inches in particular are now priced much lower than 27-inch monitor panels, which are the mainstream in Chinese Internet cafés Therefore, branded monitor vendors are now using 32-inch TV panels to make higher-margin products, resulting in impressive shipment growth for 32-inch monitor sets In this third quarter, the share of 32-inch models in the total monitor shipments is projected to stand at 24%, a big increase compared with the 003% share in the first quarter of 2014” The market appearance of curved-screen products has also created demand growth for large-size monitors WitsView estimates that this year’s shipments of curved-screen monitors will hit one million sets, with about 10% of the shipments belonging to the 236-inch segment and the rest belonging to the 27-inch and above segment WitsView further forecasts that annual shipments of curved-screen monitors worldwide for 2016 will reach 13~15 million sets Curved-screen technology will continue to contribute to the share growth of large-size models in the overall shipments Samsung presently has the largest market share for curved-screen monitors and is expected to take over at least 85% of this market in this third quarter With a huge cost advantage over its competitors in curved-screen manufacturing, Samsung is now the dominant leader in this niche product

Press Releases
Tablet Shipments to Slide to 163M in 2015 as Brand Vendors Set to Develop Commercial Application Market, Says TrendForce


Consumer Electronics

The latest tablet shipment report from TrendForce projects the 2015 global tablet shipments to reach 163 million units, a 149% year-on-year decline and a downward revision from the previous estimation Factors behind the correction include the global economic downturn and the lack of innovative features in the current range of tablets Shipments from branded tablet vendors are estimated at 117 million units, representing an 187% year-on-year decline; while white-box vendors are expected to ship 46 million based on the revised projection, down 31% year on year According to TrendForce notebook analyst Anita Wang, the ratio between tablet shipments during this year’s first half and that of the second half is about 46:54 This indicates that device vendors will concentrate their shipping efforts during the second half of 2015, when China, Europe and the US are having their peak sales periods “Tablets have yet to evolve beyond their main role as entertainment devices,” said Wang “And as smartphones grow in size, they pinch demand for mainstream tablet products that are sized at 7 inches” On the other hand, Microsoft Surface series and Apple’s upcoming 129-inch iPad change their functions depending on situations They therefore can assist in the expansion of tablet applications by capturing a share of the business application market Apple retains its title as the top tablet vendor for the first half of 2015; Lenovo will see its tablet shipments drop for the first time With 236 million iPads shipped in the first half of 2015, Apple has kept a comfortable lead in the tablet market by holding on to 314% of the market share However, the upcoming iPad Mini 3 does not offer notable feature upgrades except for having a thinner body Therefore, it is unlikely to generate significant purchase demand when it hits the market this third quarter Apple will also launch the 129-inch iPad Pro this fourth quarter, and while this product has garnered a lot of attention by introducing a new size category in the iPad series, its actual contribution to this year’s shipments will be limited due to late arrival With a detachable keyboard and a stylus, iPad Pro will be used as a touchstone in Apple’s efforts to develop business applications for iPad products Samsung follows Apple as the No2 tablet vendor by delivering around 167 million tablets and taking 222% of the market share in the first half of 2015 However, its shipment volume for the second half of the year is expected to be smaller Shipments of Samsung’s mainstream 7-inch products have dropped significantly as Chinese brand vendors have been taking away their demand in the Greater China region While Samsung is going to step up shipments of its latest 8- and 97-inch tablets in the next half-year period, the vendor is not expected to make up for the shipment decline of its 7-inch products Lenovo shipped approximately 442 million tablets during this year’s first half and is expected to ship a lot more in the second half Nonetheless, Lenovo is projected to post its first tablet shipment decline in 2015 because of the global economic downturn and the saturation of the tablet market Currency woes have suppressed shipment growth for ASUS as it aggressively develops the emerging markets ASUS shipped about 243 million tablets in the first half of the year and is expected to overtake this figure in the second half, when the vendor will be introducing new tablets in the third quarter and increasing shipments in the fourth Microsoft shipped about 15 million Surface devices in this year’s first half, and its tablet shipment ratio between the two half-year periods of 2015 is 37:63 Surface 3, which rides on the popularity of the previously released Surface Pro 3 and is affordably priced, has a positive impact on consumers’ willingness to buy 2-in-1 PC products The success of Surface 3 also proves that 2-in-1 PCs with better specs have the potential to expand into the business application market Based on TrendForce’s analysis, Microsoft’s tablet shipments this year will soar 52% year on year and hit the four-million-unit mark Amazon shipped less than a million tablets in the first half of 2015, but the vendor has a chance to triple its shipment volume in the second half as it focuses on retaining its market share in the 7-inch tablet segment In the fourth quarter, Amazon will launch another 7-inch model in addition to the new 8-inch and 101-inch devices These products will thus drive Amazon’s tablet shipments in the next half-year period

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