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keyword:Alan Chen29 result(s)

Press Releases
TrendForce Reports SSD Prices to Register Largest Sequential Increase for 2016 in This Fourth Quarter and Will Keep Climbing in First Quarter of 2017


Consumer Electronics , Semiconductors

Client-grade SSDs of mainstream capacities for the PC-OEM market are expected to witness the largest sequential increase in average contract price in almost a year for the fourth quarter of 2016, according to DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce Set against the third quarter, the average contract prices in the PC-OEM market for mainstream client-grade SSDs using MLC NAND Flash are estimated to rise by 6~10% The average prices of mainstream client-grade SSDs carrying TLC NAND Flash are expected rise by 6~9% sequentially in the fourth-quarter PC-OEM market For the first quarter of 2017, DRAMeXchange maintains a conservative forecast of end product sales However, most NAND Flash suppliers (with the exception of Samsung) will still have complications in their transition to the 3D-NAND technology Furthermore, the consensus of leading suppliers will continue to be the maximizing of their profitability Therefore, contract prices of mainstream SSDs are expected to keep climbing during the period “The price gap of 128GB and 256GB SSDs versus 500 GB and 1TB HDDs grew larger than expected in the second half of 2016 due to the sharp rise in SSD prices,” said Alan Chen, senior research manager of DRAMeXchange “Nonetheless, SSD demand in the PC-OEM market is gaining strong momentum as SSDs in general have surpassed HDDs in terms of price to performance The pace of SSD adoption in both consumer and commercial segments of the notebook market has exceeded DRAMeXchange’s estimation Chen added: “Irrespective of the undersupply situation in the NAND Flash market, the SSD adoption rate in the global notebook market is certain to pass 30% this year Furthermore, this figure is expected to be above 50% sometime within the 2017~2018 period” Client-grade SSD shipments to grow just 2~3% sequentially in this fourth quarter Shipments in the global notebook market rose in third quarter of 2016 due to new product releases and effects of the traditional busy season Correspondingly, shipments of notebook SSDs in the PC-OEM market expanded 25~26% sequentially SSD adoption rate among notebook also reached around 35~36% during the same period The channel markets for SSDs worldwide have been affected by the tightening supply and rising prices for NAND Flash, but memory module makers in the third quarter had sufficient chips on stock to fulfil orders from their customers Hence, third-quarter SSD shipments in channel markets posted an above-expected sequential increase On the whole, shipments of client-grade SSDs (including products for notebooks, desktop PCs and channel markets) amounted to 323 million units, up 15~20% from the second quarter The outlook for this fourth quarter indicates that NAND Flash supply will be under greater strain and prices of TLC NAND chips are expected to remain high Also memory module makers are likely to be running low on their Flash memory inventories at this stage Due to these factors, SSDs shipments in channel markets will be limited DRAMeXchange estimates that the global shipments of client-grade SSDs for the fourth quarter will grow by just 2~3% sequentially A breakdown of total SSD shipments for 2016 is expected to reveal that the majority of the products are using NAND Flash chips made on the 16nm and 15nm processes Moreover, TLC-based SSDs are anticipated to surpass MLC-based counterparts in shipment share and become the market mainstream this year Looking at interface technologies, only a few PC-OEMs were committed to using PCIe for their client-grade SSDs during the second half 2016 Meanwhile, much of the demand in channel markets is still for SATA III Therefore, SATA III is still the dominant interface technology in the client-grade SSD market this year While the global market share of SSDs with PCIe is estimated at just around 20% in 2016, it is going to expand rapidly next year, perhaps reaching to 30~40% The increasing number of brands offering SSDs with this interface technology, along with more affordable solutions from SSD controller chip makers, will help grow the market share of PCIe in 2017

Press Releases
TrendForce Anticipates SSD Adoption Rate in Global Notebook Market to Reach 50% in 2018



DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, reports that prices have stabilized for the first time in a year for mainstream client-grade SSDs in the PC-OEM market during this third quarter Compared with the prior quarter, the average contract price of MLC-based SSDs rose 0~05% while that of the TLC-based SSDs fell slightly by 0~1% Though there are signs of tightening supply in the upstream of the SSD supply chain during the second half of this year, DRAMeXchange maintains that the SSD adoption rate in the notebook market will exceed 30% in 2016 and may even reach 50% in 2018 “The second quarter had an increase in work days and this allowed branded notebook vendors and their channels to significantly reduce their excess inventories,” said Alan Chen, senior manager of DRAMeXchange “Furthermore, notebook demand was stimulated by new model releases Global notebook shipments in the second quarter posted an 82% sequential increase, while global shipments of SSDs for notebooks also grew 24% over the prior quarter” Chen added: “Though there was a supply shortage and a sharp price hike for TLC Flash memory during May and June, SSD shipments to the worldwide channel market registered a 12% sequential increase in the second quarter Increase in work days and manufacturers having sufficient inventories resulted in the above-expected quarterly shipment result” DRAMeXchange’s data shows the SSD adoption rate in the notebook market for the second quarter was 32~33% Total shipments of client-grade SSDs for the period arrived at 283 million units, translating to a quarterly growth of 15~20% For this third quarter, NAND Flash will be in short supply and TLC Flash memory prices will remain high, so increasing SSD shipments to PC-OEMs will come at expense of shipments to the channel market and vice versa DRAMeXchange projects that the total client-grade SSD shipments for the period will increase by just 2~3% quarterly TLC to become the mainstream memory architecture for 3D-NAND SSDs; market share of PCIe to show marginal growth this year Chen further pointed out that in the future, 3D-NAND Flash for mainstream client-grade SSDs will be based on the TLC architecture “On the other hand, 3D-NAND Flash based on the MLC architecture is not as competitive in terms of production cost, so its market share in the overall 3D-NAND Flash market will be small,” said Chen “Its application will also be limited to high-end storage products” In the SSD interface market, major PC OEMs has just started to adopt PCIe in the second half of this year Meanwhile, most of the demand in the channel market is still for SATA III DRAMeXchange expects SATA III to remain as the popular interface type for client-grade SSDs in 2016 In contrast, PCIe is projected to account only for 20% of the client-grade SSD market this year, showing a slight increase from 2015

Press Releases
SSD Adoption in Notebooks May Hit 40% by Year’s End Due to Maturation of TLC Products and Rising HDD Prices, Says TrendForce



In the mainstream PC-Client OEM SSD market for the second quarter, the average contract prices of TLC- and MLC-based products respectively fell 4~11% and 6~10% compared with the prior quarter, according to DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce Looking ahead to the third quarter, the overall supply-demand situation in the NAND Flash market may become more balanced Therefore, the decline in SSDs’ average contract prices will moderate by then because major SSD suppliers will be under less pressure to reduce their inventory stockpiles and can instead focus on increasing profits Furthermore, Samsung’s next-generation SSDs based on TLC V3 (V-NAND) architecture will exert significant influence on the market during the second half of this year Changes in SSD contract prices will depend on whether Samsung can successfully mass produce this product DRAMeXchange Senior Manager Alan Chen said HDD suppliers will continue to raise product prices to boost their gross margins Towards the end of the year, Chen forecasts that the prices of 128GB SSDs will be lower than those of 500GB HDDs, while the price difference between 256GB SSDs and 1TB HDDs will be less than US$5 Thus, SSDs will become more attractive in terms of cost-performance DRAMeXchange projects that SSD adoption rate in the notebook market will exceed 30% in this year and may even approach the 40% threshold in this fourth quarter First-quarter Client-SSD shipments exceeded expectations; TLC-based products to become mainstream Seasonality and fewer working days caused notebook shipments to decline significantly in the first quarter Correspondingly, shipments of notebook SSDs also fell by about 8% on a quarterly basis Shipments of SSDs in the worldwide retail market on the other hand grew about 7% quarterly against the market headwinds because of the increase of NAND Flash supply and aggressive pricing from SSD makers The SSD adoption rate in the notebook market for the same period was around 28~29% On the whole, DRAMeXchange estimates that the total shipments of Client-SSDs in the first quarter (notebook SSDs plus retail SSDs) at 226 million units This figure is above market expectations  Chen said SSD shipments to both PC-OEMs and retail channels will increase in the second quarter due to the greater number of working days, rising HDD prices and other factors The quarterly growth in the total Client-SSD shipments is estimated around 9~11% Excluding Samsung, other branded NAND Flash SSD vendors such as SanDisk, SK Hynix, Toshiba and Liteon has begun shipping 15/16nm TLC-based SSDs in the second quarter, thereby avoiding the price competition with MLC products and Samsung’s TLC products as in the past In the race to develop 3D-NAND Flash SSDs, Samsung is the only vendor that is well into the mass production phase The Micron/Intel team is expected to be the next 3D-NAND Flash SSD maker to begin shipping out products after Samsung Other vendors will not begin mass production until the first half of 2017 For 2016, the mainstream manufacturing technology for the SSD application will still be the 15/16nm process However, TLC-based SSDs are expected to become the market mainstream this year as its share in the overall shipments is going to exceed that of MLC products

Press Releases
TrendForce Reports SSD Adoption in Notebooks to Exceed 30% This Year as Price Difference between SSD and HDD Continues to Narrow



The latest research from DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, reports quarterly decline in the average contract price of mainstream PC-Client OEM SSDs in the first quarter of 2016 By architecture, MLC-based SSDs and TLC-based SSDs respectively suffered price declines of 10~12% and 7~12% The contract prices of TLC-based SSDs did not fall as much as MLC-based counterparts because most SSD manufacturers are just starting to ship their TLC products (Samsung being the exception) The first quarter is the traditional slow season for notebooks and has the fewer working days compared with other periods Hence, PC OEMs have reduced their purchases, resulting in a sharp drop in stock up demand At the same time, NAND Flash memory suppliers are being pressured to keep cutting their prices as they experience a large increase in the industry’s overall capacity Based on DRAMeXchange’s analysis, the price difference between 128GB SSDs and 500GB HDDs will shrink to less than US$3 in 2016 The price difference between 256GB SSDs and 1TB HDDs is also expected to be less than US$7 before the end of the year While SSDs are becoming more attractive due to their rising cost-performance ratios, this year’s notebook shipments are also projected to see much smaller declines compared with last year On the whole, DRAMeXchange believes this year’s SSD adoption rate in the notebook market will exceed 30% Samsung will continue to dominate the market this year on account of the price advantage that it has with TLC-based SSDs using 3D-NAND Flash However, Samsung will not promote its DRAM-less SSDs as aggressively as before Instead, the South Korean manufacturer will focus on migrating to 3D NAND-Flash production to reduce costs Other SSDs makers – SanDisk, Liteon, Toshiba and SK Hynix – will try to catch up to Samsung by stepping up shipments of 15nm/16nm TLC products that offer higher margins Currently, only Samsung are mass producing SSDs with 3D-NAND Flash Competing brands will not ship their first-generation SSD products using 3D-NAND Flash until the second half of 2016 at the earliest DRAMeXchange estimates that the total first-quarter shipments of Client-SSDs will fall by 4~6% compared with the prior quarter On the other hand, the decline of notebook shipments is much steeper than OEM SSD shipments The result is that a larger percentage of notebooks that are shipped in the first quarter will be carrying SSDs Hence, the SSD adoption rate in the worldwide notebook market will not fall but rise to 30~31% SSD shipments rose in the fourth quarter of 2015 as Chinese manufacturers attempt to expand their market shares DRAMeXchange Senior Manager Alan Chen said that in the fourth quarter of last year, the severity of global economic slowdown disrupted the seasonal pattern of notebook sales Consequently total ODM notebook shipments fell by 1% to 426 million units Though NAND Flash memory suppliers took a more conservative approach to their sales during the same period, most Chinese SSD makers expanded their product shipments to capture market share The tussle between the two forces resulted in 4~5% quarterly growth in SSD shipments in the worldwide retail market The SSD adoption rate in the notebook market in the fourth quarter was about 25~26% Taking retail SSD sales into account, the total Client-SSD shipments for the fourth quarter of 2015 reached 226 million units

Press Releases
TrendForce Says SSD Adoption by Notebooks May Hit 30% Next Year as Contract Price of Mainstream SSDs Fell 10% for Four Straight Quarters



Set against the previous quarter, the average contract price of mainstream PC-Client OEM SSDs has fallen by 10~11% in the fourth quarter, according to DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce This marks the fourth straight time that the SSD price decline has exceed 10% SSDs have become increasingly attractive to the consumers compared with the traditional HDDs due to the sharp drop in their prices, but the adoption of SSDs among notebooks is not expected to be strong as the notebook market’s performance has been below expectations Hence, TrendForce has lowered the estimated adoption rate of SSDs by notebooks for this year to around 25~28% DRAMeXchange Senior Manager Alan Chen said 256GB SSDs will be moving close to price parity with mainstream HDDs in 2016, so the adoption of SSDs in the business notebook segment will rise DRAMeXchange anticipates the next year’s SSD adoption rate in the notebook market will rise above 30% for the first time Branded PC vendors and channel distributors are holding back on their SSD purchases due to lower-than-expected notebook sales Third-quarter shipments of notebooks worldwide rose to 433 million units on a quarterly growth of about 13% on account of peak seasonality However, the numbers are not as impressive as they appear since the second quarter’s base period was shorter In the retail SSD market, channel distributors were conservative in their restocking efforts in the third quarter because they had expected NAND Flash prices to drop further Therefore, retail SSD market’s total shipments during that period were disappointing by peak quarter standards, rising only slightly As a result of the industry’s slowing momentum, the adoption rate of SSDs in the notebook market for the third quarter was around 24~25% Client-SSD shipments in the same period (including those from the retail SSD market) reached a total of 216 million units Fourth quarter is the traditional peak sales season in the US and European markets Chen noted that while MacBook sales continue to grow and non-Apple branded notebooks with Intel’s Skylake CPUs have hit the market, quarterly notebook shipment growth will still be constrained by ongoing inventory adjustments DRAMeXchange expects the SSD adoption rate in the notebook market to move up a bit to 27~28% during the same period Since the decline in NAND Flash prices and aggressive pricing from SSD suppliers are showing no sign of stopping, the retail SSD market will deviate from the seasonal pattern in the fourth quarter, with the global Client-SSD shipments registering a slight quarterly growth of 4~6% To consume more capacity and gain market share, NAND Flash suppliers will maintain their aggressive pricing strategy into the first half of 2016  In terms of SSD product strategy, Samsung will continue to use the price advantage that it has with its 3D TLC-SSD and DRAM-less SSDs as to acquire more PC-OEM market share However, SanDisk is quickly catching up to Samsung and has started mass production of its own lines of TLC-SSD and DRAM-less products since the middle of this year Other SSD manufacturers are rolling out products carrying 15nm/16nm-based MLC Flash in response to the aggressive pricing of NAND Flash memory Chen noted that the price war in the NAND Flash market will continue into the first half of 2016 as major NAND Flash suppliers will work hard to consume capacity and capture market share 

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