A strong growth in AI server shipments has driven demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM) TrendForce reports that the top three HBM suppliers in 2022 were SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron, with 50%, 40%, and 10% market share, respectively Furthermore, the specifications of high-end AI GPUs designed for deep learning have led to HBM product iteration To prepare for the launch of NVIDIA H100 and AMD MI300 in 2H23, all three major suppliers are planning for the mass production of HBM3 products At present, SK hynix is the only supplier that mass produces HBM3 products, and as a result, is projected to increase its market share to 53% as more customers adopt HBM3 Samsung and Micron are expected to start mass production sometime towards the end of this year or early 2024, with HBM market shares of 38% and 9%, respectively
AI server shipment volume expected to increase by 154% in 2023
NVIDIA’s DM/ML AI servers are equipped with an average of four or eight high-end graphics cards and two mainstream x86 server CPUs These servers are primarily used by top US cloud services providers such as Google, AWS, Meta, and Microsoft TrendForce analysis indicates that the shipment volume of servers with high-end GPGPUs is expected to increase by around 9% in 2022, with approximately 80% of these shipments concentrated in eight major cloud service providers in China and the US Looking ahead to 2023, Microsoft, Meta, Baidu, and ByteDance will launch generative AI products and services, further boosting AI server shipments It is estimated that the shipment volume of AI servers will increase by 154% this year, and a 122% CAGR for AI server shipments is projected from 2023 to 2027
AI servers stimulate a simultaneous increase in demand for server DRAM, SSD, and HBM
TrendForce points out that the rise of AI servers is likely to increase demand for memory usage While general servers have 500–600 GB of server DRAM, AI servers require significantly more—averaging between 12–17 TB with 64–128 GB per module For enterprise SSDs, priority is given to DRAM or HBM due to the high-speed requirements of AI servers, but there has yet to be a noticeable push to expand SSD capacity However, in terms of interface, PCIe 50 is more favored when it comes to addressing high-speed computing needs Additionally, AI servers tend to use GPGPUs, and with NVIDIA A100 80 GB configurations of four or eight, HBM usage would be around 320–640 GB As AI models grow increasingly complex, demand for server DRAM, SSDs, and HBM will grow simultaneously
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
TrendForce reports that the US Department of Commerce recently released details regarding its CHIPS and Science Act, which stipulates that beneficiaries of the act will be restricted in their investment activities—for more advanced and mature processes—in China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia for the next ten years The scope of restrictions in this updated legislation will be far more extensive than the previous export ban, further reducing the willingness of multinational semiconductor companies to invest in China for the next decade
CHIPS Act will mainly impact TSMC; and as the decoupling of the supply chain continues, VIS and PSMC capture orders rerouted from Chinese foundries
In recent years, the US has banned semiconductor exports and passed the CHIPS Act, all to ensure supply chains decoupling from China Initially, bans on exports were primarily focused on non-planar transistor architecture (16/14nm and more advanced processes) However, Japan and the Netherlands have also announced that they intend to join the sanctions, which means key DUV immersion systems, used for producing both sub-16nm and 40/28nm mature processes, are likely to be included within the scope of the ban as well These developments, in conjunction with the CHIPS Act, mean that the expansion of both Chinese foundries and multinational foundries in China will be suppressed to varying degrees—regardless of whether they are advanced or mature processes
TrendForce points out that since 1H23, there is a trend occurring where IC design companies are shifting existing and new orders to Taiwanese foundries under pressure from clients as well as their own need to minimize risks Tier-2 and -3 companies such as VIS and PSMC, which mainly focus on mature processes, have benefited greatly TrendForce believes that this shift in orders will undoubtedly ensure major recovery for foundries currently impacted by inventory adjustment and low capacity utilization rates, especially from 2H23 until 2024
TrendForce points that TSMC has been the most affected by this updated legislation, mostly due to their plans to expand into both China and the US TSMC’s current expansion into China, which began in 2022, has been focused on 28nm processes at Fab 16 The company has been continuously moving expansion-related equipment into China, and in October 2022, it obtained a one-year import permit The expansion is scheduled to be completed by mid-2023 However, based on the new CHIPS Act, TSMC’s further expansions for 16/12nm and 28/22nm processes at Fab 16 are limited for the next decade upon receiving the US subsidies Furthermore, 85% of the output must meet local market demand in China US export regulations require multinational foundries to apply for equipment import permits, which will reduce TSMC’s willingness to continue investing in China
Plans to expand memory production will focus on South Korea and the US, and China’s share of global DRAM capacity will decline YoY
The new CHIPS Act mainly applies to processes more advanced than 18nm, which is equivalent to 1Xnm for major suppliers However, mainstream DRAM processes have already been upgraded to above 1Znm, and customers are gradually transitioning under encouragement from suppliers; only a small portion of consumer DRAM products continue to remain below 1Xnm However, consumer DRAM products only account for 8% of total capacity SK hynix is the only major supplier to have a fab in Wuxi, China, but factors such as oversupply and geopolitics have caused DRAM output at the Wuxi fab to drop four percentage points from 48% to 44%, and their new fab is set to be located in South Korea Meanwhile, Samsung and Micron have no DRAM capacity in China and their plans for future expansion will focus on South Korea and the US, respectively TrendForce estimates, based on the plans of these three suppliers, that South Korea’s share of global DRAM capacity will continue to rise while China’s will decline YoY, dropping from 14% to 12% by 2025
When it comes to the supply of NAND Flash, the US has stated that restrictions on expansion mainly apply to processes with fewer than 128 layers Samsung’s Xi’an fab continues to focus on 128-layer processes and accounts for approximately 17% of global NAND Flash capacity; the Intel fab in Dalian, which was acquired by SK hynix, accounts for 9% of global NAND Flash capacity However, Samsung and SK Hynix are unlikely to expand their old production lines as 128-layer products will clearly be unable to compete with more advanced ones The plans involving upgrading process technology and raising production capacity at manufacturing operations in China will be severely limited All in all, China’s share of global NAND Flash capacity is expected to drop from 31% to 18% by 2025
Demand for DRAM and NAND Flash are in the same boat; many US companies have begun restricting production regions for memory and storage products or are requiring foundries to move their production facilities out of China to avoid geopolitical conflicts TrendForce predicts the formation of two distinctive production regions: Chinese factories that primarily focus on meeting domestic demand, and factories outside China that will serve other markets
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
The 5G Non-Terrestrial Network (NTN) market is set to mature by 2025–2026, driving the commercialization of its technology; end-users worldwide should expect their mobile devices to have satellite communication capabilities TrendForce predicts that the global market value of 5G NTN will jump from US$49 billion to $88 billion between 2023 to 2026—a CAGR of 7% This rise in global market value will likely drive chip makers to begin developing 5G NTN technology
Chip and smartphone makers working hand-in-hand to accelerate the commercialization of 5G NTN
NTN technology uses uplink and downlink transmissions from low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites to enable two-way data transmission for end-users in remote areas, which compensates for the inadequate coverage of 5G infrastructure in these parts As 5G NTN grows increasingly popular, major chip makers have begun working in conjunction with smartphone makers to develop products that possess enhanced satellite communication capabilities, with the aim of increasing their overall market share They also intend to penetrate the general end-user market by integrating satellite communication chips into their mobile devices
Qualcomm, MediaTek, and Samsung Electronics have all started working together with smartphone makers to further develop 5G NTN technology Qualcomm has partnered with OPPO, Xiaomi, and Vivo to integrate Snapdragon satellite-based communication chips into mobile devices MediaTek is working with UK smartphone maker, Bullitt Group, to incorporate two-way satellite communication chips into their smartphones Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics has finished data testing for a bi-directional satellite link and plans to integrate satellite communication chips into their own mobile devices, creating a satellite ecosystem 5G NTN will only grow more commercialized as an increasing number of smartphone makers adopt satellite communication technology
There are a number of challenges that 5G NTN will have to overcome: First, Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) and NTN technology have undergone parallel development, but the cost competitiveness of 5G NTN may face a bottleneck in the short term as it’s still in the early stages of development High tariff rates will continue to discourage consumers from buying 5G satellite phones even as their penetration rate grows As a result, the competitive advantages of 5G NTN will not be apparent for now Business users in remote areas are unlike to adopt the vertical application of 5G NTN technology until such technology matures and costs begin to fall
Application of satellite communication to expand into the field of IoT in the wake of rapid 5G NTN development
TrendForce indicates that the rapid development of NTN technology has been fueled by a significant increase in the number of LEO satellites worldwide SpaceX, the largest LEO satellite operator by far in the world, has launched 4,002 satellites as of March 2023, accounting for 84% of global launches Trailing behind SpaceX is OneWeb with 582 satellites and Telesat with 80 satellite launches Smaller satellite operators, such as Iridium, Globalstar, and Inmarsat, have launched a combined total of 104 satellites LEO satellites are expected to achieve global coverage by 2026, prompting chip makers like MediaTek and Samsung to develop IoT NTN solutions Furthermore, they have begun exploring the application of satellite communication in IoT scenarios Overall, the popularization of satellite communication and the development of IoT applications will be key factors in the commercialization of 5G NTN technology
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
TrendForce’s latest report, “AMOLED Technology and Market Status”, reveals that OLED, the next generation of digital displays, has not only taken hold of the smartphone market but is also beginning to make its move into other applications Organic OLED materials are the core of the industry supply chain, accounting for 23% of the cost of making smartphone panels An increasing penetration rate has allowed the global value of OLED materials to be estimated at US$223 billion in 2022, with a YoY growth rate of 30% Production values are expected to reach US$3 billion by 2025, owing to the support of manufacturers
OLED light-emitting components are either based on polymers or small-molecule materials Polymers have poor solubility in organic solvents, which results in impure color and poor film uniformity However, when combined with printing technology, the high aperture ratio can fit more materials and compensate for the poor lifespan and efficiency of polymers Small-molecule materials have purer color and exhibit higher brightness, which can be applied to larger-generation OLED production However, they are currently limited to developing FMM and vapor deposition machines
OLED production begins with synthesizing intermediates from raw monomers Then, the intermediates are processed to become precursors before finally being sublimated and purified into terminal OLED materials When raw monomers are synthesized chemically into intermediates, there’s a gross margin of about 10–20% These are mainly supplied by Chinese manufacturing companies such as Jilin OLED Material, Ruilian New Materials, Aglaia Tech, and Shenzhen Mason Terminal materials are produced via sublimation and purification and their structure will not change through subsequent production Therefore, the chemical structure, processes, and formulas are essential to trade secrets for terminal material manufacturers The purity of these materials after sublimation is expected to be very high, meaning that technological barriers are also very high, allowing for gross margins as high as 60–70% The technology and patents are concentrated within a few foreign manufacturers However, the booming market has led to an influx of upstream manufacturers, gradually breaking down past technological barriers Some Chinese manufacturers have been able to achieve mass production of precursors and terminal materials, and are now actively competing in the supply chain and driving growth
Apart from two electrodes, the structure of an OLED component consists of organic light-emitting materials, including the main host (light-emitting layer), guest material (dopant), and functional layers (with electron or hole transport properties) DuPont and LG Chemical are the major manufacturers of red OLEDs, while Samsung DSI and Merck mostly produce green OLEDs UDC has a monopoly on red and green phosphorescent dopant materials due to patent barriers Blue light-emitting materials used to be primarily supplied by Idemitsu Kosan and Merck Recently, LG’s next generation OLED evo TV uses deuterium-based blue emitter materials—supplied by DuPont and LG Chemical—to improve blue light-emitting efficiency Its precursors are supplied by Ruilian New Materials
Besides established manufacturers like Tokuyama, Idemitsu Kosan, and LG, Chinese manufacturers are also beginning to enter into the market to supply functional layers, such as Laite’s Red Prime Samsung and UDC are planning to commercialize blue phosphorescent materials in 2024 in order to address the lifetime issues of blue OLEDs Many new technologies, such as South Korean materials manufacturer, Lordin’s, patented Zero Radius Intra-Molecular Energy Transfer (ZRIET) rely on the efficiency of energy transfer between the main host and dopant, which is highly dependent on the distance between them When that distance approaches zero, the quantum efficiencies of the molecules will not be affected at all Therefore, efficiency can be improved by controlling the speed of energy transfer between the internal molecules of the material Lordin has synthesized a material that maintains the respective characteristics of the main and dopant materials as well as a high energy transfer rate, which is expected to produce OLEDs that will be four times more efficient
TrendForce believes the next stage of mobile terminal products will shift from folding smartphones to smart wearables, IT, and automotive applications, which will place more stringent demand on OLED components The layout of panel manufacturers is becoming clearer thanks to brand endorsements LG, Samsung, and BOE are all aggressively competing for priority for the Tokki G87 evaporation machine to gain an advantage in expanding application The accelerated commercialization of blue phosphorescent materials and more innovative technologies, such as Samsung’s vertical evaporation developed with ULVAC, eLeap lithography, and printing processes to improve the aperture ratio will help push the expansion of OLEDs in the display industry Meanwhile, costs will become more competitive as more Chinese manufacturers enter the market
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
TrendForce’s latest research revealed that shipments of gaming monitors have seen their first decline since 2016 due to high inflation, resulting in only 198 million units being shipped in 2022 for a 13% YoY decline TrendForce predicts that demand should recover in 2023 however, jumping back up to 208 million units—an increase of 5% YoY This recovery will mostly be driven by three factors: First, a number of brands are replacing their 75Hz models with 100Hz models Second, the 2023 Hangzhou Asian Games is scheduled to take place in the third quarter, where Esports is set to be one of the competing categories This will help drive up demand for gaming products Lastly, China has finally begun lifting COVID restrictions, which means demand for Internet cafes should gradually recover
TrendForce reveals that vertical alignment (VA) LCD monitors took the lion’s share of the market in 2022 at 51% This was followed by in-plane switching (IPS) LCD monitors at 434%, and finally twisted nematic (TN) LCD monitors accounted for 5% However, it’s worth noting that OLED gaming monitors have grown in popularity, taking 06% of the market share in 2022 Thanks to the diversification of OLED products, that market share is expected to grow to 16% in 2023 Furthermore, TrendForce predicts that IPS monitors may begin competing with VA monitors given that not only are IPS products increasing their market share but many IPS gaming monitors are seeing a continuous price reduction
In 2022, 165–180Hz gaming monitors had the highest market share at 519%, followed by 120–160Hz monitors at 325%, 200Hz and above at 117%, and finally 100Hz at 39% TrendForce predicts that the market share of 165–180Hz and 100Hz monitors will increase significantly in 2023 It is believed that 165–180Hz monitors will eventually absorb the market share of 120–160Hz monitors as the price difference between the two ranges is not large Furthermore, it is expected that 100Hz monitors will come to mostly replace 75Hz gaming monitors, and TrendForce predicts that their market share will increase 51 percentage points to 9% in 2023 (the market share of 100Hz monitors mentioned in this article only accounts for gaming monitors)
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
