TrendForce reports that global demand for MLCCs is set to experience a period of slow growth from 2023 to 2024 With limited opportunities for industry growth, the demand for MLCCs in 2023 is estimated to be around 4193 trillion units, with a modest annual growth rate of about 3% This growth is primarily attributed to applications in smartphones, automotive electronics, and PCs Given the uncertain political and economic climate, OEMs and ODMs have adopted a conservative outlook, with a slight increase of 3% in MLCC demand expected in 2024, reaching approximately 4331 trillion pieces
After accelerating their orders at the end of the third quarter, OEMs have become more cautious in stocking up for the fourth-quarter holiday season, resulting in a slowdown in orders for ODMs Plans are underway to finalize pricing negotiations for 1Q24 by December 1st in preparation for the impending off-peak season MLCC suppliers, facing lower-than-expected demand during the peak season and concerned over the potential continued impact of global economic weakness in 1H24, are focusing on strict control of production capacity and inventory levels
Demand for smartphones, PCs, and notebooks is gradually improving from its previous low, but overall consumer confidence remains weak
Benefiting from a slight stabilization in PC/notebook demand in the third quarter, MLCC shipments in September reached a peak of approximately 434 billion units The launch of new smartphone models in the fourth quarter has led to an increase in shipments of related components, including PA modules and WiFi/5G chips from suppliers like AWSC and MediaTek, with a shipment volume of 410 billion units in October and an average BB ration of 094
However, recovery in industry confidence still lacks solid support from broader social and economic stability, leading to a slow increase in overall consumer demand MLCC demand in November is expected to decrease to 405 billion units, with the BB ratio dropping to 092
Industry demand stabilizes as suppliers boost production capacity, and Japanese suppliers Murata and Taiyo Yuden compete aggressively for orders
In response to strategic adjustments, Murata and Taiyo Yuden showcased impressive performances in their third-quarter financial reports Benefiting from increased operational capacity and a shift from loss to profit, as well as bolstered by Japan’s relaxed monetary policy, both companies experienced growth in revenue and profits Notably, Murata’s operating profit margin surged significantly, recording a 772% increase for the quarter Following a year of conservative pricing and financial stabilization, along with signals of a rebound across various industries Murata is planning aggressive pricing strategies starting from 1Q24, focusing on high-capacity, high-temperature, and high-pressure resistant products to strategically position itself as it battles it out for order acquisitions in 2024
Samsung and Yageo have also significantly reduced the prices of their high-end MLCC products, ranging from 10u to 47u X5R–X6S, with an average quarterly price reduction of about 3–5% Therefore, TrendForce believes under the expectation of slow growth in the MLCC industry, suppliers’ breadth of product applications and the financial resilience of their operations will be critically tested in 2024
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email the Sales Department at SR_MI@trendforcecom
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TrendForce will launch our offline seminar on the 14th of December (Thursday) at Tokyo Bay Ariake Washington Hotel, during the time of SEMICON Japan This event will mainly focus on the dynamics and foresees in the 2024 tech market, including the memory, the semiconductor industry between Japan and Taiwan, foundry capacity change, and automotive and consumer electronics sectors, for the visitors’ attendance, please contact alanchen@trendforcecom or angelaliao@trendforcecom; the media attendance please contact estherfeng@trendforcecom
TrendForce reports that the utilization rates for the Gen5+ LCD panel industry (by area) are estimated to decrease by nearly 92 percentage points from the third quarter, reaching 722% in Q4 This forecast comes amid a backdrop of reduced TV panel procurement by TV brands, who are adjusting to operational pressures and rising inventory levels that began in the third quarter Additionally, signs of weakening IT panel demand emerged at the end of Q3 To prevent inventory carryover into 2024, panel makers have continued to regulate production throughout the fourth quarter
BOE began adjusting its production levels in the third quarter and will continue to do so in Q4, with an estimated decrease of 7 percentage points in utilization rates CSOT, on the other hand, maintained high utilization rates in Q3, supported by major customer stockpiling and the ramp-up of the T9 new production line However, due to reduced procurement of TV panels by both in-house group brands and international frontline brands, CSOT’s utilization rate is expected to decrease by about 17 percentage points to 76% in Q4
HKC, which still has two production lines not running at full capacity, anticipates a 14 percentage point decrease in its utilization rates for Q4 This is primarily due to the need to reduce production of one of its main products, the 32-inch TV panel, to alleviate inventory pressures and avoid significant price drops Additionally, there is a slowdown in stocking momentum for LCD monitor panels from their own ODM and the South China market
In terms of Taiwanese manufacturers, AUO has adhered to a strategy of not accumulating inventory, coupled with a reduction in the production of low-margin products that may lead to losses AUO's utilization rate is expected to fall by 14 percentage points from the previous quarter Innolux was affected by the shutdown of Fab4, expecting a 4 percentage point decrease in its utilization rate for Q4
Peak season stockpiling has concluded as we enter November, giving way to the traditional off-season, which will inevitably increase the pressure on factories Consequently, most panel makers are adopting a more conservative approach to production for 1Q24 Furthermore, several panel makers have indicated a two-week Lunar New Year shutdown for 2024 As a result, TrendForce anticipates that overall Gen5+ LCD panel utilization rates may be revised down to 70% or lower in 1Q24 to maintain the market supply-demand balance
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email the Sales Department at DR_MI@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit https://wwwtrendforcecom/news/
TrendForce reports the global shipment of notebooks is expected to reach 167 million units in 2023—a YoY decrease of 102% However, with inventory pressures easing, the notebook market is anticipated to return to a balanced supply and demand cycle in 2024 The principal growth drivers are expected to be the gradual release of pent-up demand for business sector upgrades and continuous expansion in certain segments such as Chromebooks and gaming notebooks Overall shipment volume is forecast to reach 172 million units, marking a YoY increase of 32%
TrendForce reports that the emerging market for AI PCs does not have a clear definition at present but can be examined through the lenses of software and hardware From a software standpoint, Microsoft has launched its AI assistant, Copilot, which is powered by the GPT LLM, with sales starting in November This service, requiring Windows 11, is available as a subscription for US$30 per month, enabling Microsoft 365 business customers to harness the processing power of AI Currently, the service is highly dependent on cloud-based servers for storage and performance
On the hardware side, the focus for CPU manufacturers is to enhance AI processing capabilities in end-user devices with the aim of achieving faster performance (instantaneous responses and low latency), increased security (local storage), and cost reduction (less reliance on servers) Whether it’s Intel’s NPU, AMD's Ryzen AI, Apple's Neural Engine, or Qualcomm’s NPU, the integration of neural processing engines forms the basis for client-side AI applications in endpoint devices This negates the need for cloud operation, enabling offline AI inference for production needs The launch of new processors in 2024 is set to lay the groundwork for high-performance computing AI PCs
AI PCs to expand from high-end business demand and annual upgrades to become more commonplace
TrendForce believes that due to the high costs of upgrading both software and hardware associated with AI PCs, early development will be focused on high-end business users and content creators This group has a strong demand for leveraging AI processing capabilities to improve productivity efficiency and can also benefit immediately from related applications, making them the primary users of the first generation The emergence of AI PCs is not expected to necessarily stimulate additional PC purchase demand Instead, most upgrades to AI PC devices will occur naturally as part of the business equipment replacement cycle projected for 2024
For consumers, current PCs offer a range of cloud AI applications sufficient for daily life and entertainment needs However, without the emergence of a groundbreaking AI application in the short term to significantly enhance the AI experience, it will be challenging to rapidly boost the adoption of consumer AI PCs This challenge is further compounded by a high interest-rate environment brought on by significant inflation, resulting in many zombie companies burdened by the financial pressures of financing and loans
For the average consumer, with disposable income becoming increasingly tight, the prospect of purchasing an expensive, non-essential computer is likely wishful thinking on the part of suppliers Nevertheless, looking to the long term, the potential development of more diverse AI tools—along with a price reduction—may still lead to a higher adoption rate of consumer AI PCs
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://wwwtrendforcecom/news/
TrendForce has issued its latest findings, indicating that the global SSD market has rectified its supply and demand dynamics in 2022, following a resolution in the shortage of master control ICs that had hampered the market in 2021 Despite the normalization of supply, global SSD shipments witnessed a decline, with only 114 million units shipped in 2022—a 107% decrease from the prior year
The top three SSD shipment leaders of 2022 were Kingston, ADATA, and Lexar, with Kingston and ADATA maintaining solid advantages and experiencing growth in market share over 2021 Lexar's growth was attributed to an aggressive push for revenue in anticipation of going public Kimtigo, in 2022, made significant strides in expanding into industrial control and OEM markets, which in turn boosted its shipment volume and market share Netac maintained its competitive edge in the SSD market alongside securing several government orders in the enterprise SSD sector, keeping its market share and ranking consistent with the previous year
Notable changes were seen further down the rankings Colorful, leveraging cost advantages from China’s homegrown master controls and NAND Flash, defied market trends with increased shipments, climbing to the sixth spot PNY re-entered the top ten, withstanding market downturns through extensive international channel development Teclast held its market share consistent with 2021, rising to the eighth position GIGABYTE benefited from the gaming market, maintaining its ninth-place shipment market share and ranking, while lastly, Transcend held the tenth position, focusing on maintaining profitable niche products in the industrial control market rather than chasing higher shipment volumes
In 2022, the top five SSD channels held nearly 60% market share and will only continue to dominate
In 2022, despite market challenges, the top five SSD brands increased their combined market share from 53% to 59% With the global economy still struggling in 2023—and despite constrained notebook and desktop shipments—module makers have been gradually reducing high-cost inventory pressures through continuous purchase smoothing, positioning themselves favorably for price-competitive shipping Furthermore, the overall market sentiment saw a swift turnaround at the end of the third quarter due to aggressive production cuts by NAND Flash suppliers, with SSDs first reflecting cost increases, benefiting those module makers with lower-cost inventories Large-scale SSD channels that possess substantial market volumes and financial resources have been able to successfully navigate market ups and downs and seize market opportunities TrendForce believes that these large SSD firms will only continue to grow bigger in the years to come
Domestic Chinese PCle master controller technology and SSD brands are rapidly catching up
In terms of technology, Chinese homegrown PCIe master control entities, such as Maxio Technology, are rapidly catching up, with increasingly mature PCIe control technologies They not only mass-ship mainstream PCIe 40 products compatible with various NAND Flash suppliers but are also aggressively advancing into PCIe 50 product development and verification The collaboration between China's independent control ICs and module makers is expected to thrive Facing a volatile market in recent years, Chinese homegrown SSD channels are also actively advancing supply chain configurations, aiming to step beyond China and into international waters, with Longsys leading the charge by acquiring shares in Licheng Suzhou and Smart Modular in Brazil to strengthen downstream module production capacity
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email the Sales Department at SR_MI@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit https://wwwtrendforcecom/news/
TrendForce will launch our offline seminar on the 14th of December (Thursday) at Tokyo Bay Ariake Washington Hotel, during the time of SEMICON Japan This event will mainly focus on the dynamics and foresees in the 2024 tech market, including the memory, the semiconductor industry between Japan and Taiwan, foundry capacity change, and automotive and consumer electronics sectors, for the visitors’ attendance, please contact alanchen@trendforcecom or angelaliao@trendforcecom; the media attendance please contact estherfeng@trendforcecom
TrendForce reports that China’s EV battery market is undergoing a period of turbulence due to an overall lack of demand Battery suppliers are reportedly reluctant to replenish their inventories and are instead, focusing on depleting existing stocks This has resulted in insufficient demand to support the prices of upstream lithium materials, leading to a continuous decline in ASP
As of October, the ASP of power cells in China has continued its downward trajectory, although the rate of decline has somewhat stabilized compared to August and September Specifically, EV batteries saw a 2% price reduction, consumer LCO batteries decreased by 13%, and energy storage cells experienced the most significant drop at 33%
Sustained weak demand in both EV and energy storage sectors has caused battery suppliers to slow down their raw material procurement With the traditional peak season now behind us, any significant improvement in demand before the end of the year seems unlikely This situation is expected to increase the difficulty for midstream and downstream firms in depleting their inventories and delaying the time required for inventory adjustments Upstream companies are advised to adjust their production capacities promptly to prevent excessive stockpiling, which could lead to intensified price wars
In the energy storage sector, the market witnessed a noticeable contraction in order volumes in October, primarily due to a decline in demand from overseas markets This has disrupted export orders for battery suppliers, resulting in increased industry inventory levels and fierce competition in battery pricing The average price of LFP cells dropped to CNY 05/Wh, with the lowest prices nearing CNY 04/Wh It is expected that prices of energy storage cells will continue to fall in November due to the current high inventory levels and reduced end-user demand
Consumer electronics saw a slight demand recovery in October The launch of new products has breathed some life back into the market and provided a boost to digital consumer end-products Additionally, a slight increase in the price of cobalt has lent some support to battery costs However, this has not been enough to offset the pressure from the simultaneous drop in the prices of lithium carbonate and other raw materials, resulting in a continued decline in the price of LCO batteries in October The rate of decline has slowed to 13%, with expectations for prices to stabilize in November
Looking ahead to 2024, the Chinese NEV market is expected to maintain strong growth resilience, with further growth anticipated in the EV markets in Europe and North America—particularly in the US where the EV penetration rate is still below 10% It is expected that in the short term, the US market will continue to rely on the Chinese supply chain given Europe’s slow progress in localizing its EV battery industry and the dominance of Japanese and Korean battery suppliers in the US market Consequently, Chinese li-ion battery exports are projected to perform well in 2024 However, the ongoing release of new production capacity and scaling up in the Chinese li-ion battery industry in 2023 is expected to lead to overcapacity—extending into 2024—with EV battery prices anticipated to continue their slow decline
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Green Energy Research, please click here, or email the Sales Department at GER_MI@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://wwwtrendforcecom/news/
