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Press Releases
Total Sales of Connected Cars Projected to Reach 74 Million Units in 2025 as Companies Rush to Seize Commercial Opportunities in 5G V2X, Says TrendForce

2020/07/31

Telecommunications / Emerging Technologies

The share of connected cars is steadily rising in the new car market, owing to the rapid development of V2X in recent years, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations As well, 3GPP, the standards-setting organization for telecommunications protocols, announced on July 3rd that it had approved Stage 3 of 5G Release 16 (R16) This marks the completion of 5G Phase 2, after which the industry will see a rising number of supported 5G applications, including autonomous driving This represents a further expansion of V2X applications As such, the number of connected cars sold in the new car market is projected to reach about 74 million units in 2025, an 80% penetration rate TrendForce analyst Caroline Chen indicates that the rapid surge in the penetration rate of connected cars likely takes place because various governments are aligning V2X, connected cars, and smart vehicles as vital national development priorities by officially supporting the growth of the V2X industry Another factor is that automakers, telecom operators, and third-party service providers have all set their sights on the potential profitability of the massive data and related commercial applications that accompany the widespread adoption of V2X Global auto sales volume is projected to plummet by 206% in 2020, with 5G V2X applications as a potential highlight for the industry In addition to improving the V2X user experience, 5G integration also extends V2X functionalities from existing emergency assistance and media entertainment functions to driver safety 5G-based V2X enables ADAS- and ADS-based driver safety by interconnecting various driving-related data points, including vehicle telemetry, road conditions, and driver conditions, with the cloud Furthermore, self-driving logistics vehicles, which are highly dependent on long-range remote driving, and self-driving truck fleets can both enter commercial applications sooner than expected thanks to 5G-based V2X According to TrendForce, 5G is an indispensable part of smart vehicle development, as it serves as the main driver for commercial opportunities in the automotive software and hardware sectors, although practical issues, including infrastructure (such as base stations and RSU), cost, vehicle design, and testing/certification, still need to be resolved Since the COVID-19 pandemic has yet to be successfully contained, global auto sales volume in 2020 is projected to decrease by a massive 206% At the same time, the market is placing high hopes on 5G V2X This technology, along with its emergent applications, will likely become the driving force revitalizing the automotive industry

Press Releases
NAND Flash Market Weakens Rapidly in 3Q20 with Widening Decline in Wafer Prices, Says TrendForce

2020/07/30

Semiconductors

After spot prices have been falling for some time, the NAND Flash market is formally seeing a general decline in contract prices starting from 3Q20, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Looking at the extent of the price decline by product type, SSDs have experienced a relatively smaller drop because there is still decent demand for these products In contrast, NAND Flash wafers have suffered a noticeably larger decrease because this type of product is under the mounting pressure to drive sales by cutting prices TrendForce indicates that, regarding the supply/demand dynamics of the whole NAND Flash market, the sufficiency ratio for 3Q20 is currently estimated at 26% This oversupply situation is attributed to the accumulation of inventory caused by the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic Since an excessive level of inventory has been carried over to this quarter, contract prices have inevitably turned downward Looking ahead to 4Q20, TrendForce expects the general decline to become sharper as the sufficiency ratio for the quarter is forecasted to reach 78% Oversupply in the NAND Flash market becomes a main reason for the widening decline in wafer prices Major suppliers have been reducing the supply in the wafer market over the past few months in consideration of both gross profit concerns and the flourishing demand for SSD; as well, module makers were unable to effectively clear inventory due to the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact, resulting in wafer contract prices maintaining a flat to slightly downward trend from April to June Although demand from the retail end has been recovering in June and July, the demand for PC and server SSDs has weakened as a result of decelerating demand for cloud and remote access services To avoid a potential inventory surge, the major suppliers are pressured to ramp up their supplies to the wafer market, leading to contract prices closing in on spot prices in the next few months On the other hand, YMTC’s capacity expansion this year is expected to continue in 2021 In addition to reaching maximum capacity utilization in its Wuhan fab, YMTC is projected to complete the construction of a second fab in Wuhan The company aims to start mass producing 128L products in 3Q20 and rapidly raise the shipment allocation of these products next year Currently, YMTC has expanded the incorporation of 64L 256GB TLC products for its module maker clients; the average quoted price is far lower than contract prices and approaching spot market levels, in turn widening the decline in contract prices and exacerbating the oversupply situation in the market TrendForce believes that, despite the traditional peak season for electronics sales and the release of Apple’s new iPhones in 3Q20, the quarterly decline in NAND Flash ASP will likely reach 10%, due to the client end’s excess inventory under the impact of the pandemic Furthermore, as suppliers continue making improvements in the yield rate of 128L NAND Flash, the oversupply in the NAND Flash market will intensify in 4Q20, further exacerbating the decline in NAND Flash ASP

Press Releases
Micro/Mini LED Revenue Projected to Reach US$4.2 Billion in 2024 as Major Brands Step Up Developmental Efforts, Says TrendForce

2020/07/30

LED

Next-generation Micro/Mini LED display technologies have generated a market which companies hoping to recover from the pandemic-induced global economic downturn look to for the next wave of commercial opportunities Furthermore, major brands including Samsung, Apple, Facebook, Google, LG, and Sony are also rushing to get a head start in Micro/Mini LED development, in turn galvanizing the growth of the overall supply chain Total Micro/Mini LED revenue is projected to reach upwards of US$42 billion in 2024 TrendForce’s latest investigations find that current bottlenecks in Micro LED technical development fall into six categories: epitaxy and LED chips, mass transfer, full-color emission, driver IC, backplane, and inspection/repair, whereas Mini LED development is mostly hampered by poor SMT yield rate, which drives up manufacturing costs In this light, TrendForce reveals the latest technical developments and market movements of major manufacturers though the Micro LED Forum 2020 webinar, which takes place once a year In this webinar, Roger Chu, research vice president of TrendForce’s Department of Optoelectronics Research, discusses in detail the latest trends, current technical challenges, and future outlook of Micro and Mini LED displays The discussion also covers in-depth case studies of Micro and Mini LED applications used in various consumer displays, automotive displays, and large-format commercial displays On the other hand, TrendForce analyst Max Chen analyzes the manufacturing costs of Mini LED, as well as the current state of the Mini LED supply chain According to him, “Apple’s upcoming release of products featuring Mini LED backlighting has brought about an increase in Mini LED demand and incentivized related manufacturers to expand their production capacities What’s more, with the 5-10 times growth in dimming zones of Mini LED backlights comes a considerable increase in manufacturing costs, so cost reduction is expected to become a hot topic in current supply chain discussions” This discussion outlines the various challenges involved in Mini LED commercialization while taking a forward-looking, market-first perspective In addition to topics by TrendForce analysts, the webinar features representatives from LED industry heavyweights including Oxford Instruments, HCP Technology, SiTan Technology, ALLOS, iBeam, KIMM, Veeco, VerLASE, and VueReal to share the latest breakthroughs and progress in Micro LED and Mini LED display technologies Topics covered by the industry representatives center on the latest products and technical focuses of their respective companies, including high yield and low cost manufacturing for Micro and Mini LED with die size below 10 µm, high-speed Micro LED mass transfer, new paper-thin, ultra-flexible Micro LED display technologies, and many other exciting topics [Micro LED Forum 2020 Webinar Information] Streaming Dates: Wed, July 29, 2020 – Fri, October 30, 2020 Location: Online (audio in Mandarin or English, with subtitles) Webinar Link: https://seminartrendforcecom/LEDforum/2020-pay/US/INDEX/

Press Releases
Total Inverter Shipment in Taiwan Once Again Sets Record High in 1H20, with Chinese Manufacturer Sungrow Making Its First Appearance in Top Three, Says TrendForce

2020/07/29

Energy

The current progress of downstream PV system installation in Taiwan is considerably lagging behind the 22GW yearly installed PV capacity targeted by the Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs in 2020, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Taiwan’s cumulative installed PV capacity reached a mere 410MW during the first five months of the year Furthermore, recent legislative changes by the Council of Agriculture have made an impact on Taiwan’s PV industry, meaning the Bureau’s target of 22GW this year is a tall order for the market to reach However, total PV module shipment and inverter shipment in Taiwan have each closed in on the 1GW mark in 1H20, a historical high for both sectors TrendForce analyst Sharon Chen indicates that the Taiwanese inverter industry saw significant reshuffling in 1H20, with Sungrow and SMA, a major inverter manufacturer, receiving orders for large-scale PV projects in Central Taiwan and Southern Taiwan, respectively As such, Sungrow and SMA both entered the top five list of inverter manufacturers Power optimizer manufacturer SolarEdge once again registered superb performance in 1H20, maintaining its spot on the list for the third year in a row On the other hand, KACO made an appearance in the top 10 list for the first time since 2017 by riding on the momentum of its channel advantages gained after the acquisition by Siemens in 2019 Cumulative capacity of PV module shipment approached the 1GW mark in 1H20 as Motech entered the top five list for the first time The historical high in PV module shipment can be attributed to the fact that PV module orders deferred in 2019 must be fulfilled by module manufacturers in early 2020 In addition, module manufacturers were asked to deliver advance shipments in 1H20 in order for certain large-scale PV projects to make their 2H20 grid-connection deadlines These factors worked in tandem to drive PV module shipment close to 1GW With regards to the shipment performances by module manufacturers in 1H20, the Taiwanese PV module market showed a noticeable three-way dominance by URE, TSEC, and AUO Also worth noting is that Motech entered the top five list for the first time, likely because it was able to capture large-scale PV project orders from project developers Large-scale PV projects remain the key to determining the 2H20 rankings of module manufacturers and inverter manufacturers in the Taiwanese market Although the Bureau of Energy stays confident that Taiwan is able to meet its targeted 22GW goal by the end of the year, actual capacity is expected to fall short of this target by 1800MW, judging by the status of market developments from June to the end of 2020 For Taiwan to reach the yearly target, an additional 250MW of PV capacity must be installed per month on average from June to December This amount is highly unlikely to be feasible Moreover, the legislative changes made by the Council of Agriculture are now substantially more stringent on PV projects than the past Therefore, TrendForce forecasts cumulative installed PV capacity in 2020 to be similar to 2019 figures, if no noticeable improvements were to take place in 3Q20

Press Releases
Global TV Panel Shipment Declines by 8.4% YoY in 1H20 While BOE Remains Shipment Leader, Says TrendForce

2020/07/28

Display

TV panel prices started to decline in early- to mid-2Q20, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations In an effort to clear inventory and alleviate pressure from falling TV panel prices, some panel manufacturers decided to either lower their capacity utilization or shift their production capacities to IT panels, which saw greater demand at the time When the pandemic slowed down in late-2Q20, however, a wave of urgent orders for TV panels emerged as well Given panel manufacturers’ inability to completely fulfill the spiking demand from TV brands, TV panel prices rebounded into an upswing On the whole, under the dual influences of production capacity shifts and the COVID-19 pandemic, global TV panel shipment reached a modest figure of 12905 million pieces in 1H20, an 84% decrease YoY TrendForce analyst Jeanette Chan indicates that, as the pandemic stabilized in May, governments eased national lockdowns, and the US governments started distributing stimulus payments, TV brands saw the perfect opportunity to stimulate consumer demand by engaging in discount pricing strategies As TV manufacturers intensified their stock-up demand for TV panels, TV panel shipment reached 6479 million pieces in 2Q20, a minor QoQ increase of 08% BOE led the industry in TV panel shipment in 1H20 while CSOT and INX trailed closely BOE began adjusting its allocation of Gen 85 products in 2Q20 in order to capture the leftover display panel orders that emerged in the market following SDC’s exit from the LCD manufacturing business Furthermore, since BOE maintained its past strategy of specializing in large-sized TV panels, BOE’s slight dip in TV panel manufacturing did not change its leadership position in the market, thanks to BOE’s enormous production capacity BOE led the industry in TV panel shipment in 1H20 by shipping 2326 million pieces, a 146% decrease YoY CSOT was the first panel manufacturer to resume operations following the outbreak-induced work stoppage, and the company registered its highest-ever performance in TV panel shipment in 1Q20 as a result In 2Q20, CSOT’s TV panel shipment underwent a slight decline since the company increased its allocation of monitor panel and ultra-large-sized 85-inch TV panel manufacturing However, CSOT was still able to increase its TV panel shipment in 1H20 by 83% YoY by reaching 213 million pieces due to its T6 fab reaching maximum capacity utilization this year, ranking the company number two in terms of TV panel shipment INX recorded sluggish shipment in 1Q20 because of pandemic-induced issues in back-end module capacity But the company saw its demand for mid- and small-sized TV panels recover in 2Q20 owing to momentum from the stay-at-home economy Third-ranked INX’s TV panel shipment reached 2034 million pieces in 1H20, a 72% decrease YoY HKC astonished with excellent YoY shipment growth in 1H20 with rising panel capacity HKC’s TV panel shipment reached 1393 million pieces in 1H20, a 998% increase YoY, which was by far the highest YoY increase among all panel manufacturers In addition to increasing the panel capacity and shipment of the Gen 86 production lines at its Chuzhou and Mianyang fabs, HKC decided to eschew its past focus on small-sized panel manufacturing These factors enabled HKC to score its excellent YoY growth Rising panel prices in 3Q20 means panel manufacturers are projected to make a recovery in their profitability TrendForce believes that the panel manufacturers’ production capacities have now reached maximum utilization rates, driven by the simultaneous increase in panel demand and prices Total TV panel shipment is likely to reach 678 million pieces in 3Q20, a 46% increase QoQ In spite of this quarterly growth, the pandemic has caused a slowdown in new fabs’ capacity expansion This, combined with the consistently high demand for IT panels, is expected to compress the shipment of TV panels, meaning TV panel shipment is still projected to show a 63% decrease YoY Nevertheless, the reduction of TV panel supply is accompanied by strong demand from downstream clients Therefore, TV panel prices are projected to undergo skyrocketing growth in 3Q20

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