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Press Releases
LCD Monitor Panel shipments Forecast to Drop 11.3% QoQ in 2Q22 with Weak Demand Continuing into 2H22, Says TrendForce

2022/06/30

Display

According to TrendForce research, terminal demand remains weak due to repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war, rising inflation, and China's pandemic lockdowns as monitor brands began to reduce purchasing of LCD monitor panels in 2Q22 LCD monitors panel shipments in 2Q22 are estimated at 425 million units, down 113% QoQ According to TrendForce analysis, monitor brands set fairly high shipment targets in early 2022 Coupled with the impact of LCD monitor panel shortages in 2021, monitor brands gravitated towards overbuying panels in 1Q22 to prepare for ensuing shipments Driven by strong demand from monitor brands, shipments of LCD monitor panels reached 479 million units in 1Q22, up 20% YoY, the highest level for the period since 2012 However, due to changes in the international political and economic landscape in February this year, the market for consumer models has cooled and monitor brands have successively revised their LCD monitor shipment targets downward and simultaneously lowered their panel purchase volumes In the face of interest rate hikes by the world's major central banks and slowing economic growth, companies have also begun exercising caution in terms of capital expenditures, which has slowed demand for business-grade LCD monitors In the past, inventory issues emerged and the overall market became oversupplied when monitor brands overstocked as consumer and business demand gradually cooled In addition, shipping and port congestion gradually eased in 1H22 The LCD monitors that were still in transit and accumulating in ports gradually arrived at distributors, resulting in a sharp rise in distribution inventory Faced with the dual pressure of high whole LCD monitor and panel inventory, monitor brands were forced to reduce panel purchases in 2H22 Therefore, TrendForce forecasts that LCD monitor panel shipments will continue to decline to 378 million units in 3Q22, representing a QoQ decline of 112% In 4Q22, there is a chance shipments will rebound marginally to 388 million units due to the sales surge initiated by monitor brands at the end of the year, representing a quarterly increase of 28% Annual shipments are forecast to reach 167 million units, a drop of 36% YoY For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Market Value of Micro LEDs for AR Smart Glasses Display Chips Forecast to Reach US$41 Million by 2026, Says TrendForce

2022/06/29

LED

According to TrendForce's latest Micro LED research report, among many Micro LED display applications, Micro LED microdisplays will be the next new high-end product following on the heels of large-scale display development The market value of Micro LED AR smart glasses display chips is forecast to reach US$41 million by 2026 The reason for such a significant growth in market value in just one year from 2025 to 2026 is primarily due to the gradual maturity of technologies such as red chips, laser transfer, wafer bonding and full-colorization, which can improve yield and reduce production costs TrendForce indicates that the current status of Micro LED AR smart glasses is dominated by monochrome displays due to a full-color technology bottleneck and can only display basic informational functions such as information prompts, navigation, translation, and teleprompter applications In the future, after full-color technology matures, it will first be applied in special fields such as medical surgery/testing instruments, factory environment monitoring/maintenance tools, and military applications Only after the technology is sufficiently advanced and cost has been reduced for commercialization, will Micro LEDs have the opportunity to be applied to full-color consumer display products TrendForce indicates that the ideal display for transmissive smart glasses must meet the following three conditions First, in terms of controlling weight and dimensions, in order to reduce the burden of wearing such glasses as much as possible, the size of the corresponding display light engine should be approximately 1 inch or smaller Secondly, in terms of content recognition requirements, the brightness specification of the display must be at least 4,000 nits to ensure that it is not affected by external environment factors such as weather or venue Finally, resolution must be at least greater than 3,000 PPI, so that projected images can be read clearly However, few technologies can simultaneously meet the stringent aforementioned requirements for microdisplays The most popular technologies are Micro LED and Micro OLED, both of which are self-illuminating However, Micro LED is currently at an early stage of AR application technology development and challenges remain to be overcome Due to a significant increase in demand for resolution, increased pixels will inevitably lead to a simultaneous shrinking of chips In a situation where the size of the Micro LED needs to be reduced to at least 5um or less, wavelength uniformity issues in the epitaxial process will affect yield Secondly, a smaller chip also raises a problem with the external quantum efficiency (EQE) of the red chip exterior, which in turn affects the luminous efficiency of full-color and will face the challenge of only being able to display a single color Third, although the problem of full color can be overcome by combining blue light chips with quantum dot technology, many technical bottlenecks still remain to be overcome in the application of quantum dot technology in the Micro LED process at the current stage Fourth, when the Micro LED chip and the CMOS backplane are connected by wafer, if the RGB chip is transferred to the backplane using laser transfer, Micro LED chip transfer yield will be impacted when the energy control of the laser transfer area is not uniform Finally, quickly detecting the electrical and optical properties of the Micro LED microdisplay light engine on the backplane and repairing defective pixels after inspection are also key factors affecting process and cost TrendForce indicates, although there are still many obstacles to overcome in the application of Micro LED in AR smart glasses and development of full-color technology and a mass production schedule lags relative to Micro OLED, Micro LED outclasses Micro OLED performance in specifications such as contrast, responsiveness, lifespan, power conservation, etc Considering that it is difficult for the light efficiency of transmissive AR smart glasses to break through the 1% limit due to the limitations of optical waveguide element technology, Micro LED is still an excellent light engine technology option for microdisplays in the medium and long term For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Optoelectronics Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Server Shipments Maintain Growth in 3Q22, Though 2H22 Performance Concerns Linger, Says TrendForce

2022/06/28

Semiconductors / Semiconductors

According to TrendForce research, observing recent server market dynamics, ODM’s prior production plans have begun to gradually cool Since the material mismatch cycle has improved significantly, server motherboard suppliers' stocking momentum began falling off in 2Q22 At the same time, pandemic lockdowns in Shanghai have impacted the production of some ODMs Particularly, enterprise orders led by Inventec have borne the brunt Production plans including those of Dell and HPE have been significantly delayed but overall shipment performance will not be affected in the short term Global server shipments are still forecast to grow by 65% QoQ in 3Q22, mainly due to continued support from demand generated by companies accelerating cloud migration post-pandemic TrendForce indicates that there is currently no sign of the four major North American CSPs reducing server order volume However, since the advent of the pandemic, the industry has faced supply chain issues and the server side has continued to be affected by a limited supply of scarce materials In order to achieve production goals, buyers have increased their orders and raised their material inventories as a bulwark against shortages causing an inability to ship whole devices This prompted data centers, OEM clients, and ODMs of all sizes to increase order volume estimates, resulting in a surplus of orders in the server market Therefore, TrendForce does not rule out the possibility of subsequent order adjustments by CSP players, which will lead to a slight downward revision in server shipments in 2022 In addition to the potential quandary of impending order adjustments foreshadowed by the overall market, server demand in the Chinese market is characterized by additional policy-related factors TrendForce indicates, since the implementation of the Chinese government's policy on energy consumption and Internet business in 2021, first-tier Internet service providers in mainland China have begun to adjust their server stocking plans in 2022 Up until now, Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent have all lowered their procurement scale this year, with Tencent downgrading its purchasing in the most obvious fashion In addition, the three major BAT giants will be more reserved in terms of future cloud construction It is worth mentioning that among the four major CSP players in China, only ByteDance has grown this year despite prevailing trends ByteDance reduces the negative impact of domestic policies in China by actively expanding its e-commerce platform that combines its overseas TikTok business and new businesses ByteDance will still maintain an annual growth rate of nearly 70% in server purchases in 2022 However, a project to shift computing resources westward on the domestic front proposed by the Chinese government is driving the construction of forward-looking servers and began priming the cloud business of telecom operators in 2Q22 TrendForce observed, in addition to China Mobile, which previously displayed strong momentum, starting to gradually increase order volume, China Telecom and China Unicom have also generally increased the scale of their server tenders, and such momentum has been evenly distributed among OEMs in mainland China Therefore, despite the slowdown in the purchasing power of China's first-tier CSP players, the deployment of provincial government servers and the construction of telecommunications companies supported by state-owned assets have formed a demand backstop for China's server market this year Global server market will maintain positive growth in 2022, shipments expected to grow by 5% annually TrendForce believes, the demand side of the global server market has grown significantly in the past two years due to the impact of the pandemic but the pandemic has also caused chaos in the supply chain and logistics, causing uncertainty in industry development Although server demand in 2H22 is subject to downside risks due to the consequences of material mismatches, the annual growth rate of server shipments for the entire year can still reach approximately 5% Instead, it may be affected by inventory adjustments and overall economic downturn in 2023 IT capital investment is likely to slow and growth will not be as strong as in the past two years For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/   The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively 【Info】 When:Wednesday, June, 15 Where:COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)

Press Releases
2022 a Focus for 12-inch Capacity Expansion, 20% Annual Growth Expected in Mature Process Capacity, Says TrendForce

2022/06/23

Semiconductors

According to TrendForce data, global wafer foundry capacity will increase by approximately 14% annually in 2022 Since expanding 8-inch capacity is not cost-effective and its growth rate is much lower than the overall industry average, 8-inch capacity will grow approximately 6% annually, while 12-inch capacity will grow 18% annually Of this new capacity, approximately 65% of new 12-inch capacity will be in mature processes (28nm and above) with an annual growth rate of 20% It is obvious that in 2022, most wafer foundries will focus on 12-inch wafer production capacity, with the main driving force behind production expansion coming from TSMC, UMC, SMIC, HuaHong Group’s HHGrace, and Nexchip As the recent expansion activities of process nodes above 28nm focus on the diversified development of specialty processes, TrendForce has analyzed the recent trends of these specialty processes based on products such as Power-related, MCU, and AMOLED driver ICs First, power semiconductors can be roughly divided into two categories: power discrete and power IC Power discrete, with power transistors such as MOSFET and IGBT as mainstream products, is affected by 5G infrastructure, consumer fast charging, automotive electronics, and electric vehicles where the consumption of power components per unit of product has increased and demand has grown rapidly The overall market has long been dominated by international IDMs, such as Infineon, On Semi, and STM Global IDMs account for approximately 80~90% of the market while fabless firms account for approximately 10~20% In terms of foundries, in addition to increasing demand from existing fabless customers, due to the relatively conservative expansion process of IDMs’ own factories in recent years, capacity shortages have been commonplace and IDMs have also successively outsourced products to foundries HHGrace's power discrete revenue scale in 2021 was the greatest in the pure-play foundry field with the steady release of new 12-inch capacity in Wuxi to perpetuate revenue performance PSMC and Vanguard have also recently increased their 8-inch capacity to undertake related orders In terms of PMIC, BCD (Bipolar-CMOS-DMOS) platform technology has mostly been adopted at this stage and mainstream manufacturing is performed at the 8-inch 018-011µm nodes Benefiting from upgraded technical specifications for 5G smartphones, data centers, and electric vehicles, demand for PMICs has spiked in recent years However, due to limited growth in 8-inch production capacity and the need to update peripheral ICs in response to the release of a new generation of SoCs, each foundry has also successively assisted clients in migrating certain PMICs to 12-inch production The plan is to migrate these PMICs to the 90/55nm nodes, focusing on applications such as smartphones and servers TSMC, UMC, PSMC, HHGrace, and SMIC, all have such plans The eNVM (embedded Non-Volatile Memory) process possesses relatively diversified technology and eFlash is currently its mainstream process In addition, eNVM process applications are mostly used in smart cards and MCUs An MCU has a wide range of uses For example, industrial/automotive and consumer electronics such as information communication products, home appliances, and IoT products requiring simple functional commands to diverse complex applications, will use MCU components In addition, embedded memory technology for MCU will also vary based on slight differences in functionality Although the demand for consumer MCUs is relatively flat due to weak market conditions, MCU stocking momentum to meet automotive and industrial equipment demand is still strong, leading to a relative shortage of MCUs in the currently market In addition, IDMs have been increasingly outsourcing orders driven by the short-term consequences of the pandemic on the supply chain and the cost factors of MCU products moving to more advanced process nodes in the medium and long term, especially as the cost of expanding processes below 40nm (inclusive) has increased significantly This, in turn, stimulates the MCU application development and deployment of wafer foundries With an earlier mass production for processes below 40nm (inclusive) and process maturity, Taiwan's foundries have also accepted orders from IDMs, while the technology utilized by SMIC and HHGrace lag by approximately one generation, though HHGrace possesses the greatest production capacity among Chinese foundries HV (High Voltage) process technology is mainly used in the production of display driver ICs At present, the mainstream includes the production of large/small size driver ICs at the 8-inch 018-011um process nodes, the production of TDDI at 12-inch 65/55nm, and the production of smartphone AMOLED driver ICs at 40/28nm Since the beginning of 2022, smartphone and consumer electronics market conditions have continued to be sluggish, balancing the supply of large-size driver ICs and TDDI However, since the overall penetration rate of AMOLED in mobile phones is still rising steadily, continued growth momentum is forecast in the medium and long term for AMOLED driver ICs Samsung, TSMC, UMC, and SMIC all have plans to develop 28nmHV The process technology of remaining players including HHGrace or Nexchip remain dominated by the 65/55nm nodes and they have yet to be able to mass produce AMOLED driver ICs Mature processes are estimated to account for nearly 75~80% of production capacity in the next three years According to TrendForce investigations, the compound annual growth rate of global foundry capacity will reach 11% from the period of 2021-2024, of which 28nm capacity in 2024 will reach 13 times that of 2022, the most active process node for mature process expansion More specialty process applications are expected to be migrated to 28nm and the global production capacity of mature processes above 28nm (inclusive) will stably maintain a 75-80% proportion of overall production capacity from 2021 to 2024, showing the market potential and importance of creating specialty mature processes At the same time, TrendForce indicates, due to the impact of the pandemic on the global supply chain and geopolitics, regional "short-chain production" and supply chain autonomy have become key considerations for foundry expansion For example, in order to ally with regional production and improve the flexibility of capacity scheduling, Taiwanese foundries have corresponding expansion plans in the United States, Japan, China, and Singapore Except for TSMC's US fab, which focuses on advanced processes, remaining expansion plans focus on specialty process technologies In addition, recent expansion activities clearly show that foundries in mainland China are actively expanding mature process technology and capacity These companies are allocating the production of key peripheral ICs such as HV, MCU, PMIC, and power discrete, in order to enhance the autonomy of their supply chains and meet the needs of the domestic automobile, consumer electronics, and information and communication industries For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/   The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively 【Info】 When:Wednesday, June, 15 Where:COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)  

Press Releases
Material Shortages Impede Semiconductor Equipment Lead Time, Annual Growth Rate of Foundry Capacity to Narrow to 8% in 2023, Says TrendForce

2022/06/22

Semiconductors

According to TrendForce, semiconductor equipment is once again facing the dilemma of extended lead times up to 18-30 months Before this latest equipment lead time delay, the annual growth rate of 12-inch equivalent (including 12-inch and 8-inch) capacity supplied by global foundries in 2022 and 2023 was estimated to be 13% and 10%, respectively Current observations indicate that this delay of semiconductor equipment has a relatively marginal impact on expansion plans in 2022 with the bulk of repercussions arriving in 2023, affecting TSMC, UMC, PSMC, Vanguard, SMIC, and GlobalFoundries, and encompassing mature and advanced processes Overall expansion plans will be delayed for approximately 2 to 9 months with annual capacity growth expected to fall to 8% for the year TrendForce adds, the lead time of semiconductor equipment prior to the pandemic was approximately 3 to 6 months Since 2020, strict pandemic induced border controls implemented by countries worldwide have impeded logistics However, during the same period, IDMs and foundries benefited from strong terminal demand and actively expanded production Thus, lead times on semiconductor equipment were obliged to lengthen to 12-18 months Induced by the Russian-Ukrainian war, logistic gridlock, and insufficient production capacity of semiconductor industrial control chips, production of semiconductor equipment will begin feeling the impact of raw material and chip shortages by 2022 Excluding EUV lithography equipment with a fixed annual output, the lead time of remaining machinery will be extended to 18-30 months, among which the shortage of DUV lithography equipment is the most serious, followed by CVD/PVD deposition and etching It is worth mentioning that the Russian-Ukrainian war and rising inflation have affected the acquisition of various raw materials, as well as the continuing impact of the pandemic on manpower, both of which have led to delays in semiconductor fab construction This phenomenon and equipment delivery delays simultaneously affect each foundry’s expansion plans in 2023 and beyond However, since the beginning of this year, the boon of the stay-at-home economy has evaporated and the demand for consumer electronic products such as TVs, smartphones, and PCs has continued to weaken, resulting in high inventory held by terminal brands According to TrendForce investigations, foundries will still rely on product mix adjustment and the reallocation of resources to products still in short supply to maintain capacity utilization rates at close to 95% of full load From 2H22 to 2023, high inflationary pressure may continue to depress global consumer demand However, from the supply side, the process of wafer foundry expansion is affected by factors such as equipment delivery delays and plant construction delays These delays will cause the annual growth rate of global wafer foundry capacity to shrink to 8% in 2023 TrendForce believes a prolonged expansion process has eliminated some concerns regarding oversupply in 2023 brought about by the current market conditions categorized by weak consumer demand  Nevertheless, a shortage of some undersupplied materials may continue At this time, it is necessary to rely on the diversified planning of the wafer foundry for each terminal application and each product process to balance uneven distribution of mismatched material resources For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/   The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively 【Info】 When:Wednesday, June, 15 Where:COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)  

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