IT Battery Trend
Polymer Battery Price Is Expected to Drop in 3Q19
China Has Become the Main Supplier of IT Batteries
Battery Industry Relocation Costs Are High
Emerging Countries Are More Demanding on Battery Price
Battery Cell Supply Chain Does Not Change Due to Trade War
New Energy Vehicle Market
US-China Trade War Leads to the Approach to Integration Stage
HEV Penetration Rate Is Not Affected by Decrease in Overall Car Demand
Both BEV and HEV Are the Targets of Promotion
Establishment of Environment and Sensor will Gradually Implement the Forecast of Power Consumption
Flexible Electricity Price can Affect Charging Habits and Create New Business Models
HEV System Architecture and Market
Different Types of Comparison for Mild Hybrid
Distinguish Hybrid Type through Motor Position
P0/PHEV Market Share will Rise Rapidly
Fuel Efficiency Increases with Battery Capacity and Motor Power
HEV Market Gradually Develops toward PHEV
48V System Starts to Boost Lithium-ion Battery Demand
HEV High Power Output Is Beneficial to Lithium-ion Battery
Price and Lifespan Demand of HEV Battery Is More Conducive to Lithium-ion Battery
PHEV Battery Demand Is Higher than HEV in 2019
IT Battery Trend
Due to high component inventory in 4Q18, the demand for NB battery isn’t expected to be strong in 2Q19. At the same time, polymer battery cell price will drop 5-10%.
Increasing the charging voltage of battery cell to 4.3-4.4V is still the only way to enlarge energy density of NB and cell phone batteries.
New Energy Vehicle Strategy and Battery Type Development
In terms of the mass production of 21700 cylindrical cell, battery price is expected to decline. Besides, with the increase of product lifespan, the competitiveness can be improved.
Electric vehicle battery in the US, Japan and Korea will focus on prismatic battery, and Chinese electric vehicle will mainly use polymer battery.
E-cigarette Market Development
Because e-cigarette appearance develops toward youth and lightness, the market demand for small battery will be boosted. At the same time, small battery cell production capacity will increase.
Backup Power Development Trend
Backup power will be the next key goal of lithium battery replacement for lead-acid battery, and the flexible spatial configuration of lithium battery will make decentralized architecture surpass centralized architecture.
Battery cell price will increase rapidly in 3Q18
Chinese battery cell will lead to the increase the market share of polymer battery
Cylindrical and prismatic batteries will eventually become marginalized
Resistor price will start to increase in 3Q18
Toyota will raise the rate of EV vehicles
Chinese power battery market development (new energy vehicle and energy storage)
Cathode Material Market
High voltage and high nickel will be two mainstreams of high energy density
China will focus on high voltage materials in short term
High nickel system reduces cost but increases safety risk
Cobalt will be hard to depart from seller’s quotation mechanism in the short term
Rigid demand will prompt China to expand lithium material development
In 1Q18, the supplies of cylindrical battery and prismatic battery remain tight. Yet, SDI has cancelled the suspension of production and decided to supply prismatic battery in 2018, alleviating the tight supply situation for prismatic battery. The tight supply of cylindrical battery in 2018 will continue to happen.
Cobalt price has surged, making LCO cell prices in 2Q18 rise massively. Due to the tight supply, the increase of cylindrical battery price will surpass 10%. Thus, the MNC battery combined lithium and cobalt materials will start to enter the market in 4Q18.
If the material price keeps increasing, in 4Q18, battery cell price will reflect the material cost again.
Tesla will increase energy density and reduce cobalt usage amount by enlarging battery cell volume and changing material percentage.
With the current battery technology, when the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicle reaches 15%, cobalt will be in short supply.
The cost-effectiveness of energy storage battery for frequency offset will be higher than the general power adjustment (LL).
China’s release of standard specifications and recycle standard for lithium battery cell and battery pack may help the reuse of lithium battery life cycle.