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keyword:Avril Wu116 result(s)

Press Releases
Explosive Growth in Automotive DRAM Demand Projected to Surpass 30% CAGR in Next Three Years, Says TrendForce

2021/02/23

Semiconductors

Driven by such factors as the continued development of autonomous driving technologies and the build-out of 5G infrastructure, the demand for automotive memories will undergo a rapid growth going forward, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Take Tesla, which is the automotive industry leader in the application of autonomous vehicle technologies, as an example Tesla has adopted GDDR5 DRAM products from the Model S and X onward because it has also adopted Nvidia’s solutions for CPU and GPU The GDDR5 series had the highest bandwidth at the time to complement these processors The DRAM content has therefore reached at least 8GB for vehicles across all model series under Tesla The Model 3 is further equipped with 14GB of DRAM, and the next-generation of Tesla vehicles will have 20GB If content per box is used as a reference for comparison, then Tesla far surpasses manufacturers of PCs and smartphones in DRAM consumption TrendForce forecasts that the average DRAM content of cars will continue to grow in the next three years, with a CAGR of more than 30% for the period Based on the existing vehicle models circulating in the global car market, TrendForce estimates that the average DRAM content of cars will reach around 4GB in 2021 The growth in the average DRAM content of cars is expected to be much higher this year than in the past few years However, car sales are not as great in scale when compared with sales of consumer electronics such as notebook (laptop) computers and smartphones In 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic, the annual global car sales totaled around 94 million vehicle units Also, cars have less DRAM content compared with servers Looking at the 2019 data, the distribution of the annual global DRAM consumption shows that the automotive memory segment accounted for less than 2% of the total Despite high barrier to entry, memory suppliers have been scrambling for automotive market share due to high profit margins Compared with other application segments, automotive memory has a much higher standard for durability and reliability over the long term The operating lifecycle of a car starts at 10 years, so DRAM suppliers basically have to guarantee that their automotive memory solutions have a product lifecycle of at least 7-10 years in order to satisfy the needs related to vehicle maintenance and replacements of parts From the perspective of suppliers, the selection of process technology for product development and manufacturing is a key decision point when it comes to formulating a strategy for the automotive memory segment Even as suppliers continuously migrate to the more advanced process technology, they have to ensure product longevity and long-term support for their automotive offerings Another issue, which is associated with durability, is operating temperature Given that countries around the world have their own climates and extreme weather events, automotive DRAM products must have a much wider temperature range with a higher threshold and a lower threshold when compared with other categories of DRAM products, in order to ensure that cars do not break down on the road Finally, with density and other specifications being the same, prices of automotive DRAM products are at least 30% higher than prices of conventional commercial DRAM products For the automotive DRAM products that have met some of the most stringent standards set by the industry, their prices can even be several times higher than prices of conventional commercial DRAM products In sum, although automotive DRAM products are more difficult and costly to manufacture than other kinds of DRAM products, their high profit margins and large potential market have been attracting DRAM suppliers to now scramble for a piece of the automotive memory segment Taiwanese manufacturers show great potential as Winbond thrives in automotive OEM market with its comprehensive product portfolio Currently, Micron is the leader in automotive memory products with a market share of nearly 50% The supplier first has the geographical advantage Moreover, its collaborative relationships with tier-1 automotive suppliers based in Europe and the US are longer in duration compared with its competitors Micron also has a more comprehensive product lineup for automotive applications, ranging from traditional solutions (eg, DDR2 to DDR4) to LPDDR solutions (eg, LPDDR2 to LPDDR5) to GDDR6 solutions Additionally, Micron provides automakers with other types of memory technologies such as NAND Flash, NOR Flash, and MCP Apart from the three dominant DRAM manufacturers, Taiwan-based Nanya Tech and Winbond are continuing to release a wide variety of memory products in response to the growing demand of the automotive industry In addition to possessing a comprehensive product mix ranging from traditional DDR solutions (eg, up to DDR4) to low-power solutions (eg, LPSDR to LPDDR4X), Nanya Tech has also adopted the 20nm node for a significant portion of its manufacturing processes, which are relatively stable in terms of yield rate On the whole, automotive applications account for nearly 15% of Nanya Tech’s specialty DRAM revenue, while specialty DRAMs account for more than 60% of the company’s total revenue Winbond, on the other hand, has been cultivating its presence in the automotive market for more than 10 years Although the three dominant DRAM manufacturers are ahead of Winbond in terms of process technologies, Winbond’s extensive product portfolio, which includes specialty DRAM, mobile DRAM, NOR Flash, SLC NAND, and MCP, represents a competitive advantage over the vast majority of other manufacturers Given that the automotive OEM market is both relatively stable and profitable, Winbond has been placing a long-term focus on this market; automotive applications now comprise more than 10% of the company’s total memory revenue, and Winbond’s automotive business will likely continue to expand going forward For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom

Press Releases
DDR5 Era to Officially Begin in 2021, with DRAM Market Currently Transitioning Between Generations, Says TrendForce

2020/11/03

Semiconductors

As the current mainstream solution for PC DRAM and server DRAM, both of which share the same roots in IC design, DDR4 reached a penetration rate of more than 90% in each of the above two categories in 3Q20, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations As well, JEDEC finalized the definition of next-generation DDR5 memory in September 2019 Significant increases in the penetration rate of DDR5 PC DRAM is not expected to take place until 2022 at the earliest Owing to BOM cost limitations, DDR5 integration for both Intel and AMD PC platforms will be delayed to 2022 The majority of PCs are based on the Intel platform, which accounts for more than 70% of total PC shipment As PC consumers are extremely sensitive to device prices, and DDR5 memory will command a premium over DDR4 during the initial stages of release, Intel will not rush to offer DDR5 support on its platforms Although the company’s roadmap had previously suggested that it will offer DDR5 support first with Tiger Lake-H (highest-end configuration only), planned for release in 2021, Intel ultimately decided to push back official DDR5 support potentially to the start of 2022 at the earliest, with its Alder Lake platform instead On the other hand, the second-largest PC platform supplier, AMD, whose CPUs are found in more than 20% of total PC shipment, will similarly offer DDR5 memory support with its 5nm CPUs in 2022 at the earliest Both Intel and AMD are unable to offer DDR5 support until 2022 due to the BOM costs involved, meaning DDR5 memory will remain in the product development and verification phases in 2020 and 2021 Intel and AMD may likely mass produce server platforms supporting DDR5 server DRAM in 2022 As with the PC market, Intel is the dominant platform supplier in the server market, accounting for more than 90% of total server shipment Since this market is less sensitive to manufacturing costs compared to the PC market, Intel will be faster to introduce DDR5-compatible platforms in the server market than in the PC market The company is expected to first bring DDR5-compatible products to the server market with its Eagle Stream platform, expected to enter small-batch production in 2H21 TrendForce expects mass production of Intel platforms supporting DDR5 server DRAM to gradually ramp up in 2022 and replace existing platforms supporting DDR4 DRAM Trailing behind Intel is AMD, with an approximately 10% market share in terms of total server shipment AMD’s upcoming Milan platform will continue to support DDR4 only AMD will unlikely support DDR5 until it releases the Genoa server platform, although this is yet to be confirmed The Genoa platform will enter its testing phase in 2021, with mass production expected to kick off in 2022 Should AMD officially offer DDR5 support with Genoa, that means AMD’s server platforms will not transition into DDR5 support on a large scale until 2023 at the earliest Owing to high-end smartphone chips from Qualcomm and MediaTek, LPDDR5 is expected to overtake DDR5 in penetration rate As the dominant mainstream suppliers of smartphone APs, Qualcomm and MediaTek collectively occupy close to 70% of all smartphone shipments this year Of the two companies, Qualcomm is relatively more committed to LPDDR5 adoption, since it has already incorporated the next-generation memory into its solutions this year Qualcomm released its flagship, LPDDR5-compatible chip Snapdragon 865 in early 2020, while the upcoming 870 series of flagship chips will also support LPDDR5 memory On the other hand, MediaTek’s roadmap of LPDDR5 adoption lags behind Qualcomm, since its high-end 5G chips, including reference Dimensity SoCs, support only LPDDR4 memory at the moment However, MediaTek is projected to release at least two (as yet unnamed) chips that will be the first in its product portfolio to support LPDDR5; these chips are likely to be available in the market in 1H21  The price gap between LPDDR5 and LPDDR4X has been narrowed to under 10%, owing to the strategic marketing efforts of DRAM suppliers This narrowing will contribute to the popularity of the next-generation memory Looking ahead to 2021, as Qualcomm’s 870 series of flagship chips and MediaTek’s next-generation chips will support LPDDR5, along with the fact that LPDDR5 is both faster and more power-efficient than its predecessor, LPDDR5 is expected to reach a penetration rate of 185% It should be pointed out that the future development of LPDDR5 will depend on its price difference from LPDDR4X Once this difference becomes negligible, the penetration rate of LPDDR5, compared to that of DDR5, will be more rapid and noticeable GDDR6 has become the mainstream graphics DRAM solution and standard spec on new graphics cards from Nvidia and AMD Nvidia, the dominant supplier in the GPU industry, accounts for about 75% of all graphics card shipment, and the company’s Turing-based GTX and RTX graphics cards, released in 2018, are equipped with GDDR6 memory in the mid-range and high-end product lines, while all cards in the upgraded GTX and RTX series, dubbed the “Super” series, were equipped with GDDR6 Likewise, GDDR6 is standard spec across all graphics cards with Ampere GPUs, released in 3Q20 The second-largest GPU supplier, AMD, occupies about 25% of graphics card shipment AMD’s Navi GPUs, released in 2019, are all equipped with GDDR6 memory GDDR6 will continue to remain standard spec for AMD’s next-generation Big Navi GPU, announced in 3Q20 Big Navi will enjoy increased GDDR6 content per box (that is, DRAM capacity), thereby quickly raising the penetration rate of GDDR6 memory Graphics cards from Nvidia and AMD account for nearly 70% of all graphics DRAM bit consumption Therefore, given the two companies’ active support for GDDR6, the price differences between GDDR6 and GDDR5 are continuously decreasing (at the moment no more than 10%, for the most part; certain suppliers have even quoted GDDR6 at the same price as GDDR5) Aside from graphics cards, game consoles account for about 30% of graphics DRAM bit consumption Microsoft Xbox Series X and Sony PS5, both set to be released in 4Q20, will be equipped with 16GB of GDDR6 Not only is this double the amount of GDDR5 memory equipped on current-gen consoles, but it also far exceeds the 6 to 8GB equipped on current mainstream graphics cards TrendForce indicates that the dominant platform suppliers of the above product categories have a considerable influence over the penetration and integration of next-generation DRAMs DRAM manufacturers are generally capable of producing DRAM chips or modules within one year from JEDEC’s release of exact specifications for the next-generation DRAM products However, without support from the platform end, the penetration rate growth of next-generation DRAMs will be constrained even if DRAM manufacturers are ready to release their own next-generation DRAM product mixes

Press Releases
Overall Memory ASP Projected to Decline by Nearly 10% Given Persistent Oversupply in 4Q20, Says TrendForce

2020/10/07

Semiconductors

The memory market (including DRAM and NAND Flash) is still in a state of oversupply in 4Q20, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations In light of recent US sanctions against Huawei, other smartphone brands have been actively stocking up on memory products in an effort to capture Huawei’s lost market shares, but this procurement momentum is insufficient to improve the lethargic state of the memory market In addition, as memory demand from the server industry has yet to make a noticeable recovery, overall memory ASP is expected to remain weak in 4Q20 and decrease by about 10% QoQ With regards to DRAM, the market is primarily concerned with the mobile DRAM and server DRAM categories, which account for the majority of DRAM bit consumption In terms of mobile DRAM, the preemptive inventory pull by Huawei has quickly alleviated the three major DRAM suppliers’ pressure to destock their inventories As well, Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo are all urgently stocking up on key components, in turn providing some support for mobile DRAM ASP, which is expected to undergo a 0-5% QoQ decline in 4Q20 On the other hand, since most CSPs and enterprise server clients are currently maintaining a relatively high inventory level of server DRAM, server DRAM ASP may potentially drop even further, with a forecasted QoQ decline of about 15% in 4Q20 By the end of this year, prices for mainstream 32GB modules are also projected to reach about US$100-110, which is close to the previous cyclical downswing’s lowest point All in all, overall DRAM ASP is projected to decline by about 10% in 4Q20 With regards to NAND Flash, although preemptive stock-up demand from branded clients similarly provided some support for NAND Flash ASP, the high level of supply bits and high customer inventory levels at the moment have led to an oversupply situation that is more evident than in the DRAM market Owing to aggressive NAND Flash demand from Chinese smartphone brands, the decline in eMMC and UFS ASP is expected to narrow to a 3-7% QoQ drop in 4Q20 Likewise, the continually rising supply of NAND Flash wafers will likely result in a nearly 20% QoQ decline in wafer ASP As for SSD, owing to weakening demand from server manufacturers, enterprise SSD ASP is expected to drop by 10-15% QoQ Overall NAND Flash ASP is projected to drop by about 10% in 4Q20 Furthermore, the spot market, which is indicative of the overall memory market’s movement as a whole, once again turned sluggish after mid-September Although low priced products comprise a relatively low share of DRAM and NAND Flash spot transactions, transactions for mid-range and high-end memory products have not risen by a noticeable amount, thereby constraining the momentum of the overall memory market Looking ahead to 1Q21, the decline in DRAM ASP is expected to significantly narrow, thanks to increased stock-up demand from purchasers Conversely, the abundance of NAND Flash suppliers and persistently high level of supply bits will likely widen the decline in NAND Flash ASP, resulting in a 15% QoQ decrease in 1Q21

Press Releases
As DRAM Market Enters Period of Price Hikes, Revenue Drops by 4.6% QoQ in 1Q20 Due to COVID-19’s Impact on Shipment, Says TrendForce

2020/05/13

Semiconductors

The DRAM market has changed from falling prices and rising shipment to rising prices and falling shipment According to the latest investigations by the DRAMeXchange research division of TrendForce, DRAM suppliers were able to successfully reduce their inventories in 1Q20, with significantly lower inventory levels at the end of 1Q20 compared to the beginning of the year Hence, suppliers are no longer under imminent pressure to slash prices, and overall DRAM ASP rose by about 0-5% QoQ However, while governments responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by implementing citywide and nationwide lockdown policies, the resultant logistic disruptions in turn affected DRAM bit shipment as well Therefore, in spite of the minor rise in ASP, global DRAM revenue decreased by 46% QoQ, reaching US$148 billion TrendForce indicates that the backlog of orders in 1Q20 will be deferred to 2Q20 In 2Q20, as the magnitude of QoQ increase in DRAM ASP expands, and bit shipment rebounds, TrendForce forecasts a QoQ increase of more than 20% in overall DRAM revenue DRAM suppliers are projected to continue improving their revenue and profitability The slight increase of DRAM ASP helped strengthen suppliers’ profitability in 1Q20 As the pandemic-related disruptions in the supply chain caused delays in bit shipment, and the market situation changed to a state of rising prices and declining shipments, the three dominant DRAM suppliers all experienced revenue contractions in 1Q20 of 3%, 4%, and about 11%, for Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, respectively (Micron’s 11% contraction refers to its fiscal 2Q20 revenue performance, from December 2019 to February 2020) In terms of market shares, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron occupied 441%, 293%, and 208% of the market, respectively Since suppliers have not made any major changes to their capacity plans for this year, TrendForce projects their market shares to remain mostly unchanged in 2Q20 The QoQ rise in overall DRAM ASP made a positive contribution to suppliers’ profitability in 1Q20 Samsung had a relatively strong base period in 4Q19 compared to 1Q20 because it was able to recover some of the write-offs related the quality issue of its 1X-nm process and produce a dramatic one-time gain during the period As such, although the company posted a drop in its 1Q20 operating margin to 32%, its actual profitability has been steadily improving SK Hynix’s operating margin rose considerably to 26% from 19% in the previous quarter The increase in Micron’s ASP for its fiscal 2Q20 has been smaller compared with the increases in the two Korean suppliers’ ASPs Micron has also experienced a jump in its operating costs resulting from its 1Z-nm migration Consequently, Micron’s operating margin fell slightly, but the US-based supplier is expected to make a decent recovery in its fiscal 3Q20 (from March to May) The three dominant suppliers are cautious about capacity planning and are further scaling back their CAPEX On the matters of technology and production, Samsung continues to shift the wafer processing capacity at its Line 13 from DRAM production to CMOS image sensor production, but it intends to commence DRAM production at P2L in 2H20 to compensate for the shortfall of wafer input at Line 13 while expanding the share of the 1Z-nm production in its output Samsung remains conservative in its planning as the pandemic has severely weakened the overall demand; the amount of production capacity that it plans to add this year is thus quite limited SK Hynix is gradually shifting the wafer processing capacity of its fab M10 to CMOS image sensors, while DRAM production is being raised at its main memory plant M14 SK Hynix has also decided to slightly increase wafer starts at its Wuxi base in 2H20 Nevertheless, SK Hynix this year will be expanding its output primarily through its transition to the 1Y-nm production, without significantly increasing its overall production capacity Micron’s total DRAM production capacity will stay relatively constant from last year, since much of its CAPEX in 2020 is budgeted for moving its 1Z-nm process into the mass production phase and raising output Mass production for Micron’s 1Z-nm products is expected to be realized soon, as OEMs are keen on testing the samples sent by Micron On the whole, the top three suppliers are making good progress in their technology migrations despite some delays in process development and deployment None of them have encountered a serious quality issue that could set back the schedule Total DRAM production capacity is not expected to show noticeable growth this year, and dominant DRAM suppliers are continuing to dial back their CAPEX Hence, the growth of the DRAM industry’s bit output in 2020 will be mainly driven by suppliers’ 1Y-nm and 1Z-nm migrations instead of a rise in wafer starts Taiwanese suppliers will focus on the development and deployment of advanced processes Nanya posted a QoQ increase of nearly 10% in its revenue for 1Q20 as it was able to raise its bit shipments by a double-digit percentage Nanya’s operating margin also rebounded to 127% in 1Q20 from 11% in 4Q19, owing to the effective control of the R&D cost In addition, Nanya is expected to see a further increase in its profitability in 2Q20 because its ASP will follow the general market trend and keep climbing Winbond’s quarterly DRAM revenue for 1Q20 was similar to the figure for the previous quarter as there were no major QoQ changes in the ASP and bit shipments However, Winbond recorded a noticeable gain in its NAND Flash revenue for the same period Powerchip maintained the same product mix strategy that favors CMOS image sensors over DRAM because demand stayed high for the former during 1Q20 As a result, Powerchip’s DRAM revenue for the quarter slid by 3% (the calculation of Powerchip’s revenue covers the sales of the company’s own branded, in-house manufactured PC DRAM products and excludes foundry DRAM orders) Although the three Taiwanese suppliers varied in their revenue performances, all of them will be concentrating on developing their most advanced processes during 2020 Nanya, for example, is focusing on the deployment of its in-house 1A-nm and 1B-nm processes after announcing that it will no longer use technologies licensed from Micron Meanwhile, Winbond is working on raising the yield rate of its new 25nm process and diversifying its memory offerings As for Powerchip, it is improving its 25nm DDR4 memory products with respect to stability and compatibility

Press Releases
DRAM Contract Prices to Rise in 1Q20 as Power Outage at Samsung Fab Spurs Demand, Says TrendForce

2020/01/08

Semiconductors

1Q20 contract price forecast for PC DRAM, mobile DRAM, and specialty DRAM has been revised from “slightly downward” to “mostly holding steady or slightly upward” Because of limited growth in DRAM supply, buyers are proactively increasing orders to raise their inventory According to the latest analysis from the DRAMeXchange research division of TrendForce, the consistent increase in DRAM spot prices since December and the power outage at Samsung’s Hwaseong fab on December 31, 2019 have not seriously impacted the supply side of the DRAM market But on the demand side, memory buyers have furthered their willingness to build up inventories Thus, TrendForce is again adjusting the 1Q20 DRAM contract price forecast from “mostly holding steady”, as previously reported, to “slightly trending upward”, indicating an earlier-than-anticipated kickoff of the cyclical upturn In the PC DRAM segment, although negotiations over 1Q20 contract prices are currently underway, TrendForce predicts a high probability that prices of memory products shipped to PC OEMs will trend either flat or slightly upward To avoid the potential increase of the US tariffs on Chinese imports, PC OEMs rushed the shipments of notebook PCs to the US market in 4Q19 Subsequently, notebook PC shipments during 1Q20 will be weaker compared to traditional seasonality On the other hand, PC OEMs are under pressure to raise their memory inventories because DRAM suppliers are curbing their bit output The YoY growth of the total DRAM bit output in 2020 is still projected to be less than 13% Hence, PC OEMs are actively preparing for a supply-driven price hike in the near future The power outage at Samsung’s Hwaseong base has only dialed up the sense of urgency With the aim of building up a safety stock of DRAM modules in mind, PC OEMs in 1Q20 seem to be willing to accept prices that are the same level or marginally higher compared with the previous quarter They may concede on price if DRAM suppliers are cooperative in raising product quantity In the mobile DRAM segment, although consumer interest in 5G smartphones is growing in 1Q20, the supply of 5G chipsets is still quite limited Also, smartphone makers usually dial back their demand for key components during the traditional off season Hence, any 5G-related memory demand is not expected to be significant in the beginning of 2020 TrendForce previously forecasted a 0-5% decrease QoQ in contract prices of mobile discrete products and eMCP products for 1Q20 However, server DRAM and Graphics DRAM products are now expected to lead the general price rally, as their demand has been warming up since mid-December As well, the recent tightening of supply in the NAND Flash market is helping to prop up prices of eMCP products The positive sentiment in these two segments has spilled over into the mobile DRAM market The latest forecast has therefore corrected mobile DRAM price trends from “slightly downward” to “mostly holding steady” for the period Samsung produces most of its specialty DRAM chips on the 20/25nm processes at its Hwaseong-based fab Line 13, which was affected by the power outage Moreover, contracts prices of specialty DRAM chips have been the first to feel the effects of the nearly month-long price upswing in the spot market As a result, contract prices of specialty DRAM chips could rebound sooner than initially anticipated For this first quarter, major customers (or tier-1 clients) that procure specialty DRAM chips through quarterly lock-in deals could see prices staying on the same level as in 4Q19 However, the average supply fulfillment rate of DRAM suppliers for quarterly deals related to specialty memory products is estimated to be under 60% for 1Q20 Most customers in the specialty DRAM segment had not proactively stocked up at the end of last year, so they entered 2020 with rather low inventories Therefore, contract prices of most specialty DRAM chips will probably begin to register monthly rises starting from the first quarter Moreover, double-booking from buyers could cause a further drop in the supply fulfillment rate In light of these factors, contract prices for DDR3 and DDR4 memory products are projected to register a 0-5% QoQ increase in 1Q20

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