The latest investigations by TrendForce show that the foundry industry benefitted from the previous quarter’s order fulfillment and client stock-up demands, with overall projected revenue undergoing a slight 2% dip QoQ but about 30% growth YoY in 1Q20 due to the comparatively lower 1Q19 base period. However, as the COVID-19 pandemic causes repercussions in global markets, and the economy enters a corresponding slowdown, the foundry industry now faces major uncertainties on the demand side, possibly slowing the industry’s future growth momentum.
The latest investigations from TrendForce finds that the top three IC design companies in 2019, Broadcom, Qualcomm, and NVIDIA, all exhibited decreased YoY revenues, significantly impacting global IC design revenue. Whether the industry can return to a state of growth will depend on whether the U.S. Department of Commerce expands its export restrictions and whether the COVID-19 pandemic can be sufficiently contained.
According to the DRAMeXchange research division of TrendForce, despite the apparent slowdown of the COVID-19 outbreak in China, the virus is now rapidly multiplying across the Middle East, Europe, and the United States. Earlier, the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic, which poses dire, system-wide risks for the global economy. Similarly, the memory market may take a turn for the worse and go into a slump earlier than expected.
The smartphone supply chain is continuing to feel the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Owing to hindrances such as uneven factory work resumption statuses, a generally low rate of returning labor, and breaks in logistics and transportation, the supply chain has not been recovering as previously expected. The outbreak’s impact is projected to last 1-3 months, and the supply chain will not recover to normal levels until the second half of March at the earliest. Therefore, TrendForce is further reducing its previous projection of 1Q20 smartphone production from the pre-outbreak forecast of 307 million units to 270 million units, a 13.3% decrease YoY.
Under the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, the notebook supply chain is facing many challenges in work resumption delays, labor shortages, material shortages, and logistic/transportation restrictions. TrendForce is hereby lowering its February notebook shipment forecast from 10.8 million units previously to 5.7 million units, a 47.6% decrease YoY.